The optimist sees their lineup as half-fullā¦
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Mojo Fantasy:
- Bye-week optimism; ever heard of it?
- Week 7 Rankings & Tiers: Two Smash plays
- QUICK HITTER: TNFās best bet
- Sean Payton is feeling inspired
- Freedmanās Favorites: Big names to bet on
- Itās 10/19. Take it away, Cooterdoodleā¦
Weāve officially hit NSYNC week.
With six teams getting a little R&R during Week 7, your lineups likely have you biting your nails and furrowing your brows. A little mid-season sweat. But donāt worry, unlike a Monday Night Chargers fan, no one can see you.
Rather than kicking and screaming our way through Bye Week hell, I prefer to view this as an opportunity. We now have a chance to elevate some players from our benches!
Thatās right. Iām talking about optimism here. Whadya say? Letās talk Bye Week upside.
š¤ Curtis Samuel vs. NYG
While everyone was waiting for Jahan Dotson to happen, Curtis Samuel did.
Not only has he hauled in all but two of his targets over the last three weeks, but Samuel also scored a TD in each of those games. Thatās what the cool kids like to call a āheaterā.
But the biggest barrier to Samuelās success is Sam Howellās affinity for catching sacks.
Washington faces the Giants this week, whoā¦ wellā¦ Youāve been watching the games, right? The Giants have allowed 167 points to opposing teams through six weeks.
Would it really be so crazy for Samuel to continue his TD streak in a matchup like this?
Upside: Heās consistent. He catches. Heās Curtis.
š£ Rashid Shaheed vs. JAX
Donāt let my fandom cloud your judgment, but Iāve been high on Rashid Shaheed all season long (with an impulsive mid-game jersey purchase to prove it).
But itās been tough to start Shaheed in lineups when his targets have been so volatile each week. Not consistent. Not sexy.
Where Shaheedās upside comes from, however, is his big play-making ability (enabled by Derek Carrās unwavering trust).
The Saints face Jacksonville this week, whose defense ranks bottom 10 in yards per pass attempt allowed.
Sure, Rashid is behind guys like Michael Thomas and Chris Olave. But youād be hard-pressed to find a bye-week fill-in with the potential for big plays like Shaheed has this Thursday against JAX.
Upside: Derek Carr continues to Feed Shaheed.
š Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. ARI
While Jaxon Smith-Njigba has yet to catch a touchdown or eclipse more than 6 targets this season, the rookie has other numbers working in his favor.
Just kidding. Iām really talking about the fact that JSN is starting to see increased usage on the field since Seattleās Week 5 Bye.
And another boost in volume could come in the wake of DK Metcalf (ribs, hip) missing time. Monitor Metcalfās health prior to kickoff, but even if DK suits up, Arizona could allow JSN to be more involved. (More on ARI vs SEA below)
Upside: A juicy matchup with bird-on-bird action.
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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 7 of the fantasy football season. Below youāll find Dwainās thoughts on some must-start players. Find all of our positional rankings here.
š„ Running Back
š„ Tier 1 ā Saquon Barkley
Barkley returned to action in Week 6 to deliver a top-15 RB finish as the Giants wasted little time saddling up the veteran back with a hefty workload. Barkley toted the rock a whopping 24 times and rarely left the field, playing 82% of the snaps.
While Barkley didnāt have an elite route participation, it wasnāt due to playing time ā it was due to the Giants' need for extra protection for the QB. He was still on the field for most of the LDD (long down and distance) opportunities and saw 91% of the two-minute snaps.
The Giants offense has been one of the worst in the NFL, with only 24% of their drives ending in points ā only the Patriots have managed less. However, the Commanders allow the third-most points per game (29.3) and give up the seventh-most rushing yards in non-overtime (129).
We might not get as many check-downs to the backs against Washingtonās man-heavy coverage, but Barkley could get an opportunity or two to make a big play. Cody Barton ranks 67th out of 78 linebackers in coverage grade per PFF, and Barkleyās aDOT rises against man coverage.
Vegas expects a close game with the Commanders favored by two points, which should keep the touches flowing through Barkley. While he might not be 100%, and Daniel Jones is questionable, the potential volume offsets these concerns.
Barkley is a top-12 player in a game where he could see 25-plus touches in a solid matchup.
š„ Wide Receiver
š„ Tier 3 ā Christian Watson
Watson got off to a rocky start this year thanks to a hamstring injury that kept him out of the first three contests and limited his route participation in Week 4.
However, we saw signs of life in Week 5 with an 85% route participation, a 25% target share, and a mouth-watering 76% air-yard share.
He has two top-36 finishes in two tries and flashed that big-play ability in Week 6. And now he should be near 100%, thanks to a Packerās bye week. While that is great news for fantasy managers and Green Bay fans, it is bad news for Denver.
The Broncos allow the second-most passing yards (286) and the most TDs (2.3) per game. No other defense has a worse PFF coverage grade (45.5), and they also rank last in tackling. As you might have guessed ā that leads to a lot of fantasy points.
Denver allows 37.9 points per game to opposing pass catchers (second-most), and the Packers have a top-six team total (23) in Week 7. Sometimes, things just line up perfectly for some players, and this week, Watson is one of those guys.
This one has required patience, but Watson managers, your day has arrived.
Watson is a SMASH play and ranks as my WR20, making him a top-40 option in Week 7.
Check Out More Position Rankings for Week 7 from Dwain!
The Fantasy Life FREE Bet Tracker is already loaded with a handful of plays for Thursday Night Football, and Geoff Ulrich is here to give you a peek behind the curtain with one of his best bets for the gameā¦
š¼ Super Bowl rings are nice. But he wants a piece of the team.
ā¤ļøāš©¹ Not great for the Rams. Can the IR stop IRāing?
šŗ EVERYTHING you need to know for Week 7. Your favorite fantasy analysts brought in their own WR1.
āļø Week 7 starts TONIGHT. Everything you need for TNF betting and the DFS showdown slate.
š„ Anthony Richardson recovery update: Itās longer than we thought.
šļø A contract extension in October? For how many million?!
š Marvin Mims breakout hope?? I donāt think my heart can take it.
š„ We havenāt seen these uniforms in a while. Two key players return to ARI.
š“ People find inspiration in the strangest places. The Denverā¦ Lions?
Every week, Matthew Freedman publishes a piece highlighting some of his favorite fantasy plays. Naturally, this piece is called āFreedmanās Favoritesā. We told him to get more creative, to which he answered with a resounding āNoā. Anyway, here are his favorites for Week 7ā¦
š Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) vs. Chargers
- Chiefs: -5.5
- O/U: 48
- TT: 26.75
Mahomes hasnāt been his usual spectacular self six weeks into the season, but since his first year as a starter (2018), he is No. 1 in FPPG (26.6)
And last week, he had a season-high 306 yards passing.
Last year he led the league with 5,250 yards and 41 TDs passing -- not to mention 123 redzone pass attempts -- and he has lowkey rushing ability (20-plus rushing yards per game in each of the past three years, 30.8 this year).
In 2022 the Chiefs were No. 1 in the league in dropback over expectation (9.04%), and this week they have a good matchup with the Chargers, against whom Mahomes has averaged 25.1 fantasy points on 308.5 yards and 2.75 TDs passing across four games under defensive HC Brandon Staley.
Situationally, this is a great spot for the Chiefs, who are at home with extra rest (10 days), whereas the Chargers are on short rest (six days).
Even with his modest start to the season, Mahomes is now No. 2 in the MVP market. I have a +500 ticket on him to win MVP logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
š Kenneth Walker (Seahawks) vs. Cardinals
- Seahawks: -7.5
- O/U: 44.5
- TT: 26
Walker in 2022 finished No. 2 in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting with 1,215 yards and nine TDs, and this season he has 445 yards and six TDs in five games. With at least 17 opportunities (carries and targets combined) in every contest so far, he has one of the highest ceiling/floor combinations at the position.
Walker is No. 2 in the league with 88% of his teamās carries inside the 10-yard line, and heās tied for No. 3 with nine broken tackles.
He could see ample work as a large home favorite, and the Cardinals are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (48.8%).
š Brandon Aiyuk (49ers) at Vikings
- 49ers: -7
- O/U: 44
- TT: 25.5
Aiyuk came into his own last year with 1,015 yards and eight TDs receiving, and he has continued to impress this year with 22-411-2 receiving on 31 targets in his four full games (he exited Week 2 early with a shoulder injury and missed Week 3).
For the season, heās No. 1 in the league with a 52.7% air share, and he could see extra opportunities this week with RB Christian McCaffrey (oblique) and WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder) both uncertain to play.
The Vikings are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (34.9 FPPG).
š Mark Andrews (Ravens) vs. Lions
- Ravens: -3
- O/U: 42.5
- TT: 22.75
Andrews has been the No. 1 pass catcher in the Ravensā offense since his 2019 second-season breakout (last year, he was the No. 1 TE with a 23% target share), and in his five games this year, he has a steady 24-294-3 receiving on 34 targets. New offense, same Andrews.
The Lions are without SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson (pectoral, IR).
MORE OF FREEDMANāS FAVORITES FOR WEEK 7
