Football, as good as it gets âŚ
In todayâs Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- Playoffs! Five historical #trendz âŚ
- Early Lines: Browns. Texans. No Deshaun.
- Adjusted Scores: Bills âpushâ in victory.
- Arthur Smith Hates TDs: âGoodbye, yellow brick road.â
- National Championship: Harbaughâs final CFB game?
- Itâs 1/8: Take it away, Matthew FreedmanâŚ
The dregs of the regular season now removed, weâre left with the delicious draught of playoff football: Elixir of Elysium. Or something like that.
Anyway, the postseason is here, so itâs time to look at some historical playoff trendz. (âZâ intentional. Always.)
âď¸ Outdoor Unders
Outdoor games in the playoffs often feature subpar weather conditions, which in turn can lead to low scoring.
Since 2003, outdoor unders in the postseason are 98-75-4 (9.5% ROI, per Action Network).
In these games, wind is likely the driving factor. In playoff games with winds of at least 10 mph, the under is 30-16-2 (24.6% ROI).
And when itâs windy (10+ mph) and freezing (temperature no higher than 32 degrees Fahrenheit), the postseason under is 15-5-1 (43.2% ROI).
Pay attention to weather.
For Super Wild Card Weekend, the outdoor games that most catch my eye are Chiefs-Dolphins and Bills-Steelers.
đ Indoor Overs
As profitable as it has been, the âoutdoor undersâ angle feels a little obvious.
Less obvious, though, and still profitable, has been the edge provided by indoor overs.
In the postseason, the over in games played in a covered stadium is 31-17 (27.9% ROI).
And in games between non-divisional opponents â such as Texans-Browns, Cowboys-Packers, and Lions-Rams â the indoor over is an improved 29-13 (36.6% ROI).
And that gets me to another trend âŚ
đś Divisional Road Dogs
In the postseason, the road team is often the underdog, and that makes sense. The home team has the higher seed, and typically the team with the higher seed has the better record and is actually the better team.
But home-field advantage is drastically diminished in divisional matchups, and when divisional opponents meet in the playoffs theyâre facing for a third time, which probably hurts the better team: Familiarity can dull the favoriteâs edge.
As a result, road underdogs tend to be undervalued in the postseason when playing in division.
- Against the Spread: 16-10 (19.7% ROI)
- Moneyline: 10-16 (11.9% ROI)
This year, we could theoretically see postseason divisional games between the Ravens, Browns, and Steelers; Dolphins and Bills; 49ers and Rams; Cowboys and Eagles; and Lions and Packers.
âď¸ Two New Postseason Teams
This year, we have six teams in the playoffs that werenât last year.
- AFC: Texans, Browns, Steelers
- NFC: Lions, Rams, Packers
Whenever two new postseason teams face each other, chaos can ensue, which benefits visitors and underdogs.
- ATS Visitors: 32-14 ATS (36.7% ROI)
- ML Visitors: 24-22 ATS (25.0% ROI)
- ATS Underdogs: 33-14 ATS (37.7% ROI)
- ML Underdogs: 20-27 ATS (13.3% ROI)
In this situation, road dogs are 27-9 ATS (47.5% ROI) and 17-19 ML (28.4% ROI). Whenever two previously mediocre teams meet in the playoffs, the market tends to overvalue the perceived better one.
The Rams as road underdogs against the Lions have my attention.
đ§ Playoff Veterans vs. Playoff Newbies
This one makes intuitive sense. At QB, starters with postseason experience are 35-17-1 ATS and 36-17 ML against QBs making their first playoff start.
This weekend, we have four such matchups.
- Joe Flacco (CLE) at C.J. Stroud (HOU)
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
- Josh Allen (BUF) vs. Mason Rudolph (PIT)
- Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. Jordan Love (GB)
Iâve already bet Chiefs -3 and Bills -9.5 and logged those positions in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
Finding early betting value â and grabbing as much closing line value (CLV) as possible â is one of the easiest ways to become a better bettor. Matt LaMarca dives into his favorite early bet for Wild Card Weekend.
đś Browns (-2.5) at Texans
- Current Line: Browns -2.5 (-115; FanDuel)
- Target Range: Browns -2.5 or better
Both of these squads have been fantastic stories this season. The Texans entered the year with minimal expectations. They were starting a rookie QB with a rookie HC, and they were counting on young players throughout their roster. After finishing with the second-worst record in 2022-23, they managed to win the AFC South.
Meanwhile, the Browns navigated one of the toughest divisions in football history. All four teams finished over .500 â the first time thatâs happened since 1935 â despite starting five different players at QB. Their âfranchise QBâ DeShaun Watson underwhelmed when healthy before suffering a season-ending injury, while Dorian Thompson-Robinson and P.J. Walker both faltered in the starting role.
Enter Joe Flacco. The 38-year-old came off the couch to take over the starting reigns in Week 13, and he propelled the squad to a 4-1 record.
What Flacco has done has been nothing short of remarkable. Heâs thrown 13 TDs while averaging 323.2 yards per game. Heâs struggled with inconsistency and turnovers at times, but heâs proven that heâs still worthy of a starting spot at the NFL level.
The good news is that Flacco doesnât have to do things by himself. The Browns boast easily the best defense in football. Theyâre first in the league in EPA/play defensively, and they were first in opponent yards per game through the first 17 weeks. Theyâre also tied for seventh in sacks per game and tied for third in takeaways per game, so they excel at generating splash plays.
Itâs a brutal matchup for C.J. Stroud, who has come through for the Texans all season. Heâs going to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year after racking up 4,108 passing yards, 26 total TDs, and just five INTs in 15 games.
He gives the Texans an edge on paper at the most important position, but that edge might not be as big as you think. While Flacco has gobs of playoff experience, Stroud will be making his first playoff start.
Quarterbacks making their first playoff start have historically been amazing fade candidates, especially when facing a QB with previous playoff experience. Before last season, first-time QBs were just 14-35-1 ATS when facing an experienced QB. Thatâs good for a cover rate of just 29%.
Those QBs did much better last year, with Daniel Jones securing an outright win in his first career playoff start, while Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson covered for the Ravens and Dolphins. That said, Huntley and Thompson were both underdogs of more than a TD, while Stroud isnât getting even a full FG. Heâs almost assuredly going to need to win the game outright to cover the spread.
Personally, I love this spot for the Browns.
Their defense is elite, and Flacco is going to be unflappable in the postseason while the opposing sideline deals with jitters. I was fortunate enough to grab this bet at -1.5, but I think you can play the Browns at anything better than -3.0.
đ Enjoy the Natty with a No Sweat Bet!
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Keep reading to see who the Betting Life team likes in tonight's game!
Kevin Cole is the proprietor of Unexpected Points, and each week he provides his âadjusted scoresâ for every game based on the underlying production data. Here is an excerpt from his advanced game reviews for Week 18.
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special teams, penalties, fumble luck, etc.).
đ Adjusted Scores Table
- âPassâ: Pass rate over expectation (based on the context of each play and historical averages)
- âSuccessâ: Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs. actual score
- âH & Aâ: Home or away team
đŹ Dolphins vs. Bills
- Final Score: 14-21
- Adjusted Score: 20-23
Despite turnover and late-down conversion advantages, the Dolphins couldnât take down the Bills at home and lost the division in the process. Josh Allen seemed intent on making scoring as difficult as possible for a Bills offense that was firing on all cylinders before the nearly inevitable big mistake.
Allen threw two INTs and lost a fumble â all inside the Dolphins red zone â and also threw a pass in the middle of the field that was stopped at the 1-yard line without enough time remaining to get the FG unit ready. Then on their final drive, Allen failed on a tush push conversion on the Dolphins 31-yard line. The Bills only punted once and could have scored a lot more points with any semblance of discipline at the end of drives.
The story is really the Bills defense, which held the Dolphins scoreless in the second half, plus their special teams unit and Deonty Hardy, who made the most impactful play of the game: A 96-yard punt return TD that added 6.1 expected points. The Dolphins were able to run the ball fairly well, but their passing game struggled, totaling slightly negative EPA on 31 dropbacks.
The Dolphins offense has gone from first in EPA per play during Weeks 1-9 to 10th the rest of the season, with the rankin10 for dropback and designed-run efficiency falling from second and second, respectively, to 11th and 9th. Trends can always flip back, but the conditions in an ice-cold Kansas City next week wonât be the most conducive to an offensive turnaround.
Allen might be the only QB in the NFL who can throw multiple INTs, lose a fumble, fail on a costly 4th-&-1 conversion attempt and still finish with a very respectable +7.9 EPA on a massive 55 plays. Key to offsetting the many negatives was the +6.7 EPA Allen added on scrambles and designed runs, excluding getting stuffed on fourth down.
This mistake-filled effort was weirdly an argument for and against his potential status as MVP. Perhaps no other QB could put a team offensively on his back like Allen, yet his errors would have been a primary reason the Bills lost if their defense didnât hold down the opponent. The Bills will want a cleaner effort from their QB in the playoffs, although facing the Steelers at home, possibly without T.J. Watt, should be a very favorable matchup. The early Wild Card betting lines have the Bills as a -9.5 favorite, the biggest difference of any game.
Tua Tagovalioa had a flat game by EPA efficiency. He didnât take any sacks and his two INTs âonlyâ cost the Dolphins 3.6 expected points. The Dolphins just werenât able to sustain drives, going 4-for-10 on third down, and ended up running less than half the number of plays of the Bills (48 to 77), despite getting the ball back immediately after giving up a punt return TD.
The Dolphins offense canât be counted out in the playoffs, and theyâll face a Chiefs team that presents less of a threat offensively (never thought Iâd say this) than a handful of other playoff teams. The Dolphins are +3.5 underdogs right now and have better than a 40% implied win probability in markets.
đ Flyers vs. Penguins Under 6.5 Goals (-120, FanDuel)
These two teams have met five times since the start of the 2022-23 season. All but one of those meetings featured six goals or less.
Both teams are top-10 in goals against and penalty-kill efficiency. Likely Flyers starter Carter Hart also has strong home splits, posting a .917 save percentage in 11 home games this year. This is playable at 6.0 (+100) but as long as the odds on 6.5 stay at -120 that would be the preferable line.
đš Curses arenât real ⌠are they? This team disrespected the towel and now theyâre booking tee times for next Sunday.
đĄ One of the biggest NFL conspiracies was finally confirmed in Week 18. Proof that Arthur Smith hates TDs.
đ I canât see the bottom, can you? The Patriots/Jets total closed so low its historical relevance may require a trip to the archives.
âď¸ Breeceâs run left him in pieces. A meaningless late TD in a meaningless game cost one bettor big.
đ§ Is that good? I think thatâs good. The Packers QB put on a clinic this Sunday.
đ¤ So youâre telling me thereâs a chance? Not many expected the Texans to be in this position at the start of the year.
đ Super Bowl probabilities. Itâs Kyle Shanahanâs world and weâre just living in it.
đ¤ Hot tip. You can bet unders too! A nice +1100 cash courtesy of the Oracle.
đ° Up over +35 units on the season. We have picks for Super Wild Card Weekend, College Football, NHL, and more.
What, you thought Monday Night Football was over? While the pros are taking the night off, the college kids will take center stage. The Michigan Wolverines and Washington Huskies will square off in the National Championship. Matt LaMarca breaks down his favorite side, while Mark Drumheller hands out his favorite prop âŚ
đ Best Bet: Michigan -4.5 (-110, DraftKings)
After disrespecting the Huskies for most of the year, both the oddsmakers and betting public have finally started to come around on them. Washington closed as just a +3.5 underdog against Texas, and Michigan is favored by only 4.5 points in this game. Michigan is undoubtedly a better squad than Texas, so the oddsmakers have clearly upgraded their assessment of Washington.
The betting public is also starting to take notice. The Huskies have gone 3-0 as underdogs this season, having covered the spread by an average of 8.3 points per game in those contests. In fact, while it's a small sample size, no coach in college football has had a better ATS record as an underdog than Kalen DeBour since 1990.
However, going up against Michigan will be their toughest test yet. The Wolverines have been the best team in college football this season, bar none.
What will happen if Michigan is the team to finally slow down Washington's offense? If the Huskies can't score like they're used to in this game, they simply don't have the defense to stop the Wolverines and keep this game in reach.
Ultimately, I think that this is the perfect time to sell high on Washington. I have this spread closer to seven points using my projected power ratings, and I think thatâs what this number wouldâve been had these two teams met a week ago. This is the year where Harbaugh will finally get the Maize and Blue over the hump.
âŹď¸ Top Prop: Michael Penix Jr. Over 293.5 Passing Yards (-125, DraftKings)
The matchup the world will be watching is the Huskiesâ offensive line against the Wolverinesâ defensive front. Michigan made the Tideâs pass-blocking unit look like turnstiles during last weekâs semifinal win.
However, these Huskies are a different breed. Outside of earning the Joe Moore award as the countryâs top offensive line, Penix's protectors allow sacks on only 2.06% of dropbacks â the second-lowest mark in college football. Alabama, the team Michigan feasted on, ranks 132nd of 133 FBS teams in the same category. Michigan will pressure Penix, but I am willing to wager itâs not nearly as big of a factor as we saw last weekend.
When Washington gets threatened, the Penix-Rome Odunze connection becomes unstoppable. Penix completed 19 of 21 passes to Odunze for 333 yards this season when the in-game win probability fell under 50%. Considering Michigan should be able to run up and down the field on Washingtonâs defense, there will be a massive amount of urgency on the Huskies offense to respond every time they touch the ball. With Johnson playing through a leg injury, the offense falls entirely on the arm of their QB. Penix diced up the Oregon Ducks for 300+ yards on two separate occasions and is coming off a 430-yard performance against Texas. Win or lose, the Heisman finalist will get his.
