🏠 Where's the Home-Field Advantage?

Where once were three points, now are … checks notes … +0.88???

In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

Minus Monday Night Football, we’re now a month into the season. Here are a few big-picture dynamics I’ve noticed. (These are probably more descriptive of what has happened than predictive of what will happen, but they’re still notable.)

🔥 2022 Postseason Teams Stay Hot

Entering the year, if we had looked at the first month of games for the previous decade, we would have seen that teams that made the playoffs in the previous season have historically started out well (per Action Network).

And that has especially been the case this year.

• Postseason vs. Non-Postseason Teams (Weeks 1-4): 250-227-9 ATS (2.6% ROI)

• 2023 Postseason vs. Non-Postseason Teams: 20-12-1 ATS (18.7% ROI)

Only two 2022 playoff teams have a losing ATS record vs. non-playoff teams this year.

• Bengals: 0-2-1

• Giants: 0-1

It’s fun to talk about contrarianism and sharp sides, but the truth this season is that most of last year’s good teams have stayed good — and they’ve outperformed market expectations against last year’s bad teams.

As for the Bengals and Giants … they might be bad.

💸 Unders Continue to Cash

As I mentioned in the Week 2 Monday Betting Life newsletter, last year unders were 158-125-1 (6.9% ROI), which was the most profitable season for unders for the past two decades.

Even with overs absolutely crushing in Week 2 — 13-3 (54.7% ROI) — the under has still been the profitable side this season: 34-28 (4.8% ROI).

What explains the league’s diminished scoring since last season?

For a number of reasons — some to do with defensive schemes, some to do with the relative inexperience and lack of talent at the position — QBs have underwhelmed since 2022.

Last year, the league average for AY/A (adjusted yards per attempt) was 6.8, which was tied with the marks from 2013 and 2017 for the lowest of the decade.

Framed differently: In 2022, we saw a level of widespread passing inefficiency that we hadn’t seen since before Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was a starter.

And this year, the league-average AY/A is even worse at 6.6 — the lowest it has been since 2010 (6.5), when Hall of Famer Peyton Manning started his final season with the Colts and QB Sam Bradford won Offensive Rookie of the Year. That was a long time ago.

The QB play we’re seeing in the NFL right now is literally not of this decade — and that is driving scores down.

This is still stuck in my head, from @RyanBrill_'s NESSIS talk.

The first and most important contributor to an offense's expected points is this quarterback.

The second most important contributor to that same team's offensive expected points: the opposing quarterback

— Michael Lopez (@StatsbyLopez)
Sep 28, 2023

As QBs improve and scores go up, we will likely see an increase in overs … but I’m skeptical that we’ll see significantly better QB play as the season progresses.

🚗 Visitors Have the Edge

For the past 20-plus years, visitors have been marginally profitable.

• Road Teams: 2,579-2,440-139 (0.2% ROI)

• Home Teams: 2,440-2,579-2,139 (-5% ROI)

That’s not a surprise.

Home-field advantage (HFA) is not what it used to be: Travel technology is superior, players are smarter about monitoring their bodies and maintaining their schedules as much as possible when on the road, referees are better about not making too many calls that favor home teams, and fans … how to say this? … are less threatening and imposing than they used to be.

Long gone are the days of getting three points merely for playing at home. Over the past 10 years, HFA has been worth +1.71 points. Over the past five years, +1.13. And this year, just +0.88 (per NFElo).

One longtime sharp sports analyst — Jeff Sagarin — has the current average HFA at 0.21 on the low end and 0.52 on the high end.

Unsurprisingly, visitors are 32-26-3 ATS (5.0% ROI) this year.

The sample is small, but the market might continue to overweight the value of HFA throughout the season.

It’s never too early to start thinking about Week 5. Matt LaMarca breaks down a couple of lines to consider pouncing on early in the week.

Last week, I was able to secure the Vikings at -2.5 on the early line, and they eventually closed at -5.0.

I also got value with the Bengals at +108 on the moneyline — can’t win ‘em all! — and grabbing closing line value is one of the most important steps in becoming a better bettor.

Let’s dive into five games I have my eye on heading into Week 5.

😤 Put Some Respect on the Bills’ Name (Bills -5.5, FanDuel)

What do the Bills have to do to earn some respect at this point? I get it, they were absolutely horrible in Week 1. They lost to a Jets squad that had no business beating them with Zach Wilson at quarterback, but the Jets’ defense is a brutal matchup for Josh Allen. They held him in check last year, and he absolutely imploded in Week 1.

Since then, this team has done nothing but dominate.

Granted, massive wins over the Raiders and Commanders aren’t going to get anyone excited, but they won those games by a combined score of 75-13. Even with their Week 1 disaster, they were second in the league in points scored and points allowed through the first three weeks.

If you had any doubts about the Bills, they should be erased after their thrashing of the Dolphins.

Miami is not an elite squad, but they did just rack up 70 points the previous week against the Broncos. The Bills were far superior on both sides of the ball, winning by four touchdowns as three-point favorites.

Following their third straight blowout win, they have to be getting plenty of love from the oddsmakers, right? Not exactly.

They opened as just 4.5-point home favorites vs. the Jaguars, and while the Jaguars do have the benefit of being in London for a second straight week, I still don’t think that’s enough.

What have the Jaguars accomplished? I thought they were overrated when the year started, and their only wins this season are against the Colts in Week 1 and the Falcons in London. They lost by eight points at home to the Chiefs and suffered a 20-point home loss to the Texans.

Maybe there’s something that I’m missing, but I’m more than happy to lock in another early bet on Buffalo.

🐬 Are the Dolphins Overvalued? (Dolphins -9.5, BetMGM)

It’s not that difficult to pick apart most team’s resumes in the modern NFL. We did it all season with the Eagles in 2022, and they were good enough to nearly win the Super Bowl. There are only so many “legitimate” teams to measure yourself against.

The Dolphins failed their first real test of the season on Sunday.

Excluding the blowout win over the Broncos, this hasn’t been a particularly impressive team. Their offense is undoubtedly elite, but their defense is capable of giving back everything when they’re on the field. They managed to escape Los Angeles with a two-point win over the Chargers, and they nearly let the Patriots come back against them in Week 2.

The Dolphins will return to Miami for a home showdown with the Giants in Week 5. New York has been awful to start the year, and there’s a chance they lose again on Monday Night Football.

However, they should have some reinforcements on the way soon. Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley might be their two best players on offense, and both players seem close to suiting up.

Ultimately, I’m happy to grab the Giants if this number touches double-digits. If Thomas and Barkley return, I think this number will be a few points lower by kickoff.

🗽 The Man Who Replaced Eli vs. The Man Who Replaced Eli?!?

Is this the multiverse?!?!

No, it's just tonight's matchup featuring the 3rd highest point total on the slate!

Plus, just in time, BetMGM is offering a First Bet Offer for all first-time deposits!

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Thanks to BetMGM, you can bet on the game without worrying about sweating your first bet.

Speaking of which, here’s how Matthew Freedman is choosing to burn his money on Giants-Seahawks.

🏈 Giants +1.5 vs. Seahawks (-110)

“As I note in my Week 4 Freedman’s Favorites, the Giants and QB Daniel Jones have four more days than they usually would to rest and prepare for this game given that they played last week on Thursday Night Football.

Jones hasn’t been good to start the year (4.4 AY/A, No. 31), but neither has the Seahawks’ defense, which is No. 31 in dropback SR (53.4%, per RBs Don’t Matter).

For his career, Jones as an underdog is 27-18 ATS (15.4% ROI).

I have this projected as Giants -0.1.

That said, I had an absolutely terrible Week 4, so … at least this is a no-sweat bet :)”

Here are four bigger-picture takeaways specifically from Week 4 from Geoff Ulrich and Matt LaMarca.

📈 Christian McCaffrey has entered the MVP race (and the 49ers keep rolling)

McCaffrey rolled off the line of the day for fantasy purposes finishing the game against Arizona with a 20-106-3, 7-71-1 line. Yes, that’s four TDs. At this point, McCaffrey leads the league in rushing yards by a long shot and is up there for most TDs on the year as well.

While it’s easy to see his production stall at some point, especially with how many weapons the 49ers have, this is starting to get into LaDainian Tomlinson territory — who was the second-to-last RB to win the MVP award in 2006, when he posted 1,815 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns.

If you’ve been paying attention to our free bet tracker you saw that Matthew Freedman posted a McCaffrey MVP future a couple of weeks ago at juicy 80-1 odds. With futures on awards closed overnight it will be interesting to see where McCaffrey lands in the morning (he was around +5000 going into Week 4).

MVP is a quarterback bro-fest for the most part, but many high-end QBs to date have underperformed. With the monster start, there does appear to be a lane for McCaffrey to potentially snipe this away from the signal-callers if he keeps up the record pace.

— Geoff

⬇️ Another Bengals letdown: Cincinnati moves to 0-3-1 ATS on the season

Tennessee and Mike Vrabel again proved they are not to be trifled with when backed into a corner.

Vrabel moved to 24-23 SU as an underdog with the Titans’ 27-3 win over the Bengals, an absolutely sick record for betting purposes when you consider the payouts on those wins would all be +100 or better.

For the Bengals, the bloom is definitely off the rose. Between 2021 to 2022 this team was a betting darling, going 27-13-0 ATS. Now they’ve let down backers in four straight.

It’s too early to write off Joe Burrow completely but clearly, there is concerning signs coming from his outputs. His 4.8 yards per attempt metric on the season is 2.5 yards worse than his career average and he’s completing 57.6% of his passes.

These numbers are so much worse than what he’s produced over his career, to this point, that his calf issue from training camp is almost certainly much worse than we’re being led to believe.

To his credit, Burrow took the blame after the loss and made it clear the team needs to execute better. I expect we’ll see the old Bengals and Burrow at some point in 2023 but it may not be before the snow hits the ground, and too late for a playoff push.

— Geoff

💪 Rookie QBs struggle mightily (except C.J. Stroud)

It’s no secret that rookie quarterbacks have a steep learning curve. We saw five rookies start at the position in Week 4, with two starters (Dorian Thompson-Robinson & Aidan O’Connell) making their pro debuts. Those quarterbacks went just 1-4 against the spread, and all rookie QBs not named C.J. Stroud are now 1-6-1 ATS for the year.

That makes what Stroud is doing even more impressive. He engineered a 30-6 win over the Steelers on Sunday, despite missing seven players on the offensive line. He’s thrown for 1,212 yards, six touchdowns, and zero picks through his first four starts, and he looks like he could turn the Offensive Rookie of the Year race into a laugher.

We’ll see what the updated odds look like before Week 5, but don’t be surprised if I add some exposure on Stroud into the Bet Tracker.

— LaMarca

🧸 Bears Get the Ugliest of Covers

The Bears’ season has been nothing short of a disaster. Actually, that probably undersells things. They provided their usual off-field drama this week with the Chase Claypool debacle, but on the field, things were actually looking pretty good.

They were up 28-7 in the second half, and numberFire gave them a live win probability as high as 96.8%. Those who had a Bears +3.5 ticket had to be feeling pretty darn good about it.

Then the wheels fell off.

Chicago allowed 21 unanswered points, tying the game at 28 apiece near the end of the fourth quarter. The Bears drove deep into Broncos territory and faced a fourth-and-1 from the 18-yard line.

Instead of taking the points and going up three with less than three minutes left, the team went for it and ultimately came up short. Sure enough, the Broncos marched down the field and kicked a FG of their own before Justin Fields ended the game with a pick.

The Bears technically still covered the +3.5, but this was way uglier than it should’ve been. Next time, bettors might not be so lucky.

— LaMarca

🐏 Sean McVay and the Rams stand alone: They’re not the best team in the league, but they’ve been the best for bettors!

🤔 One of the saddest yet truest “tweets” I’ve ever seen. Winning at sports betting is, you know, hard.

👉 Yes, QBs, yada yada yada, but what about EVERYONE ELSE? The most valuable non-QBs against the spread.

👮 The NFL has updated its rules on players gambling: Someone check on Calvin Ridley.

😮‍💨 The one obligatory Taylor Swift-focused “tweet” … we swear that this one is very good!

🙌 When all hope was lost on SNF, Patrick Mahomes saved the day! One small slide for man, one large win for Jets/under bettors.

💰 Freedman: 5-0 yesterday, 16-4 overall in the contest. Not the “Seinfeld contest” … the season-long picks contest.

🙂 The Falcons: The only team in the NFL that evidently doesn’t script the first 15 plays. I mean, could there be another reason Desmond Ridder sucks in the first half?

👍 Monday Night Football: Want analysis and bets? We’ve got you COVERED!

Even though we’re already looking ahead to Week 5, we still have Monday Night Football between the Giants and Seahawks to celebrate. Here to break it down from a betting perspective is Geoff Ulrich.

🏈 Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants

The Monday Night Football game brings us a matchup of two misfit-type teams in Week 4.

It seems like forever ago that the Giants were getting blown out in another primetime matchup last Thursday night in San Francisco. New York comes into the week well rested, with a 1-2 record but carrying a boat anchor of a -55.0 point differential that ranks second worst in the NFL after three weeks.

If you think New York is lucky to be where they are, record-wise, you would be right. Outside of the two quarters against Arizona where they staged a miraculous comeback, the Giants have been outclassed every step of the way. They’re 26th in yards per pass attempt against, and 31st in overall defensive DVOA.

Daniel Jones is also struggling across the board. He’s the fourth most sacked QB in the league, and his yards per attempt metric is a full yard below his career averages. While the talent on this team is tantalizing, to a degree, their record from 2022 is looking more and more fraudulent by the week.

On the other side, you have Seattle, who has played inspired football after an embarrassing Week 1 loss to the Rams. Seattle comes in 2-1 on the season but has had struggles as well.

They only have a -1.0 point differential on the season – despite the winning record – and their passing defense remains a sore spot after they allowed 361 yards last week to the Panthers’ backup, Andy Dalton.

So what do we do with these two, want-to-be-contender teams in Week 4? We break down the game, spread, and player props below…

• Spread: Seahawks -1.5 (-110; BetMGM)

• Total: 47.0

• Moneylines: Seahawks -125 / Giants +105

Both of these defenses rank well below average in overall defensive DVOA so right off the bat we should likely be giving the over a look. Both teams also rank above average in PROE (pass rate over expectation) and with Saquon Barkley (doubtful) likely not suiting up for New York their run game will probably peter out at some point.

As far as the spread goes, as much I’d like to give New York one more shot, Seattle (-1.5) should be in a good spot to keep things rolling.

You can bet on Seattle (-1.5) at BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win!

Geno Smith has been the far better of the two signal callers and his game against Detroit, when Seattle was down two starting offensive linemen, remains one of the best of the year.

Smith regressed a little bit last week (296-1-1) but has found a nice connection with DK Metcalf who came through big for Seattle against Carolina with a 6-112 line and an 18.67 yards per catch average. Metcalf is in another great spot in Week 4 against a Giants secondary that is starting two rookies at corner in Tre Hawkins and Deonte Banks.

The Seahawks defense will likely make this game interesting but they are getting S Jamal Adams and CB Riq Woolen back for this game – neither of whom were on the injury report this week. When you pair a slight boost on that side of the ball with the intangibles Smith brings at QB, it will likely be enough to hand the Saquon-less Giants another L.

If you can’t stomach the spread on either of these teams, don’t worry, we break down the props and some same-game parlay action below as well…