👶 Which Rookie QBs Will Start Week 1?

You know what they say about QBs with small hands...they might not start Week 1...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:

• Will any rookie QBs start Week 1?
• Our new website drops Tuesday
• Kevin's 3 ways to stack the Cardinals
• Full Disclosure: Diontae Johnson
• Team preview: Los Angeles Rams
• It’s 7/1. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

In 2021, three of the five first round rookie QBs–Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones–started Week 1, but things aren't looking as good for the 2022 rookie QBs.

ESPN's NFL Nation reporters recently went around the horn and broke down the chances for each QB to win the starting job Week 1 and it's not a glass half full outlook:

• Kenny Pickett - 2% chance
• Desmond Ridder - 5% chance
• Malik Willis - 5% chance
• Matt Corral - 5% chance

It's interesting that they give the QB drafted the highest (Pickett) the lowest chances of starting Week 1, but throughout OTAs and minicamp Pickett has consistently been taking third-string reps behind Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph.

The reporters, however, do give all of the aforementioned QBs except Malik Willis a greater than 50% chance of starting at some point in the season. 

For fantasy purposes, all of these guys are cheap in drafts. They probably aren't redraft targets in single QB leagues, but I have been sprinkling a few of them in at the end of my best ball drafts because the combination of upside (via rushing, specifically) and uniqueness (they aren't always getting drafted) intrigues me.

Hope everyone rests up and enjoys the long weekend because we are hitting the online farm on Tuesday...

It's time to heed the call. Fantasy Life is beckoning.

New website coming 7/5 🗓

— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Jun 30, 2022

Earlier this week, Professor Pete talked about why stacking is so vital and went in-depth on different ways to stack the 49ers in drafts. Today, Kevin Tompkins describes a few different ways he likes to stack the Arizona Cardinals. Take it away, Kevin...

When it comes to stacking, the aim is to make concentrated and correlated bets on particular offenses so that when they hit, you’ll hit big with your roster’s scoring potential. Today I'm going to outline why I can't stop stacking the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals check two boxes that are important to consider when stacking: 1) they are an explosive offense that can support ceiling outcomes from multiple players and 2) they have affordable price tags that aren't cost prohibitive. Here are the current Cardinals ADPs on Underdog:

The best part about the Cardinals is that there are players at every ADP to stack with Kyler Murray, an elite QB who you can sometimes get as a value deeper into Round 5 and sometimes into Round 6. There are top-level WRs that you can get at reasonable prices like Marquise Brown (Round 3/4) and DeAndre Hopkins (mid-Round 7).

After that, pass-catchers like Zach Ertz, Rondale Moore, and A.J. Green, plus RB types like Darrel Williams and Eno Benjamin are available to tack on to your roster.

How can we fit these players into stacks?

🍦 The Traditional Cardinals Stack (Murray with Brown and/or Hopkins)

Hopkins’ six-game suspension to start the season helps make this double-stack happen where if he weren’t missing time, Hopkins’ ADP would likely be in line with Brown and much more challenging to obtain both with Murray. Murray finished third amongst QBs in deep-ball accuracy while Brown was eighth in deep targets (per PlayerProfiler).

🚪 The Backdoor Stack (Murray with a combo of Ertz, Moore, or Green)

Ertz is a cheaper way to play into the upside of the Cardinals. Without Hopkins for the first six games of 2022, Ertz can be a volume hog and then maintain some touchdown-dependent upside in an elite offense to propel him to another TE1 season.

The team’s beat has been pretty steady saying Moore has made great strides and that the offense wants to get him in space. We saw glimpses of his potential last season, so if there’s anybody that can soak up targets left over from Chase Edmonds and Christian Kirk’s departure, it’s Moore.

Green is expected to rotate with other secondary WRs but he still has a leg up on players like Antoine Wesley. Green is ridiculously cheap (WR82), so it wouldn’t take much to tack him onto your roster at the end of drafts. Ertz is a cheaper way to play into the upside of the Cardinals. Without Hopkins for the first six games of 2022, Ertz can be a volume hog and then maintain some touchdown-dependent upside in an elite offense to propel him to another TE1 season.

🧠 The Galaxy Brain Stack (Murray, Williams/Benjamin, and 2 Falcons)

Edmonds is now taking his talents to South Beach, and James Conner stands alone as a back who will be getting the bulk of the red-zone and green-zone touches for the Cardinals. Labeled “injury-prone” for much of his young career, Conner played 15 games and ended 2021 as fantasy’s half-PPR RB5 in total fantasy points and points per game.

What does this all mean? For Darrel Williams, we’re playing the RB ambiguity card for contingent value late in drafts.

For Benjamin? Well, Pete Overzet recently said, “Eno Benjamin is this year’s Rashaad Penny.” Book it.

⛔ "Don't pick me in fantasy." Not something you normally you hear from a player, but this RB said it.

🤲 The most efficient WRs. Some familiar names in Hayden Wink's model, but how about number three!

💰 High stakes best ball. Our friends at Underdog dropped a $500 entry contest, The Bulldog. Use promo code LIFE for a $100 deposit match.

🌧️ Who do the players want at QB in Seattle? K.J. Wright has his guy.

🏆 The best teams over the past 19 seasons. No surprise at the top.

In this series, our contributors will disclose their favorite players and tell us why they can't stop drafting them. Today, we have Geoff disclosing his love for Diontae Johnson...

My Guy: Diontae Johnson

Underdog Fantasy ADP: 40.9 (WR19)

Why: All Johnson does is produce. Over the last two seasons he’s earned 156.5 targets, per year, despite committing 18-drops over that span. The drops may be off-putting to watch but Johnson improved vastly in that area in 2021, committing just five after recording 13 in 2020. He also commanded a massive target share, despite the miscues, which is a true testament to how good he is at getting open off the line of scrimmage.

Johnson’s 2021 produced elite fantasy metrics in a lot of areas. He led all wide receivers in routes run and also played on a career high 91% of the snaps on offense. While Johnson’s fantasy value has been volume-based for much of his career he’s not without upside either. The fourth-year wide receiver ranked eighth in yards after the catch last year and it’s reasonable to expect more from him in that area in 2022 given his background as a punt returner in college.

The punt return by Diontae Johnson that was called back because of a block in the back by Sutton. This kid can make people miss. #Steelers

— BlitzburghUSAVideos (@sdextrasmedia)
Sep 21, 2020

The change under center this year for Pittsburgh could lead to some team growing pains but it’s quite possible it also ends up being a net positive for Johnson. Ben Roethlisberger ranked just 22nd in on target throws last season and was graded 24th by PFF in deep passing performance. It’s worth noting as well that Mitchell Trubisky has supported true WR1’s in the past. Allen Robinson ranked as WR8 in 2019 and saw an average of 152.5 targets between 2018-2019. 

Finally, while many of the league’s top WRs this year have been getting paid, the Steelers have yet to commit to Johnson on a long term extension (and just drafted a potential Johnson replacement in George Pickens). If Johnson enters the year without a big money extension, the motivation factor will be through the roof which is never a bad thing when discussing NFL skill players.

Don’t be dissuaded by all of the offseason player movement in Pittsburgh. Johnson remains one of the league’s best all-around WRs and a great value when he falls past the third round. 

Disclosures: Geoff thinks Johnson is a top five WR and has untapped potential in terms of fantasy. He’ll be looking to target him as much as possible in best ball drafts on Underdog this summer when he falls into the third-round. 

The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, Fantasy Life's Community Lead & dynasty guru, Sam Wallace, previews the Los Angeles Rams. 

The reigning Super Bowl Champion Rams will look to run it back this season with their newfound franchise QB Matthew Stafford and Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp. Courtesy of BetMGM, they are +1100 to win the Super Bowl this season which puts them No. 4 behind the Bills, Buccaneers, and Chiefs.

⚙️ Offseason changes

• Signed Stafford to a four-year/$160 million extension
• Signed Kupp to a three-year/$80 million extension
• Traded WR Robert Woods to the Titans in exchange for a 2023 sixth-round pick
• Signed WR Allen Robinson to a three-year/$46.5 million contract
• RB Sony Michel signed with the Dolphins
• Spent a 5th-Round Pick on RB Kyren Williams from Notre Dame

✨ Team vibes

Did you know Stafford and Kupp spent roughly 500 additional hours together last season, above their normal obligations of practices and meetings? The “Breakfast Narrative” was one of the best storylines of last season and it culminated with massive extensions for both players. Kupp is the consensus WR1 this year and I honestly don’t mind his price tag.

Odell Beckham Jr. tore his ACL during the Super Bowl and remains a free agent. Head Coach Sean McVay has openly expressed his desire for OBJ to return to Los Angeles. At this stage of the offseason, it does seem like the most probable outcome given that the free-agent market has all but dried up and no other team has expressed interest in OBJ.

Robinson was the splash signing in free agency following the injury to OBJ. He’s coming off the worst season of his career but if health is no longer an issue, there’s no arguing that his situation with Stafford & Co. is markedly better than his previous offense. He’s a bit of a risky take at current ADP and the community doesn’t seem sold on him either.

In all, the Rams continue to sell future picks and spend money like neither exist. But hey, championships have a way of silencing the critics. Life is good in LA.

🎯Draft targets

• Matthew Stafford (ADP 95.2 / QB12)
• Cooper Kupp (ADP 2.7 / WR1)
• Allen Robinson (ADP 47.0 / WR22)
• Van Jefferson (ADP 137.4 / WR64)
• Tyler Higbee (ADP 165.5 / TE20)

👋Draft fades

• Cam Akers (ADP 46.4 / RB18)

People who wait to draft “the next Deebo Samuel” instead of just drafting Deebo Samuel.

— Jake Trowbridge (@JakeTrowbridge)
Jul 1, 2022