Hopefully, voting didn't stand between you and the waiver wire...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by PFF:
- The playoffs are close, we have work to do.
- Utilization Report. Another buy-low WR.
- Premiere Matchup. Dak vs. The Pack.
- Regression Session. A fantasy revival in Tampa?
- Another week, another disappointment for Green Bay
- It's 11/9. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...
It is hard to believe, but we are heading into Week 10 of the NFL season. We only have a few weeks left to position ourselves for a fantasy championship run.
Whether you are facing a trade deadline or are looking to work the bottom of your roster with free-agent options, now is the time to make your move. Check out the Utilization Report below for a big free agency tip, but let's start by taking a look at some trade targets that are underperforming but could provide huge upside for your stretch run.
Many of you are facing a trade deadline this week, so let's take a look at some options that are currently underperforming but could provide huge upside for your stretch run.
➡️ Trade Target: Kyler Murray
Murray isn't living up to his expectations as a high-end option. The Cardinals' offense looks dysfunctional, but Murray is hanging in there at QB6 and is on pace to finish near the league leaders in dropbacks and inside the top six in rushing attempts.
That is always a recipe that could get going. Note that Arizona has a Week 13 bye.
➡️ Trade Target: Dalvin Cook
Cook might not be easy to pry away from your fellow league mate, but his underlying data is befitting of a back scoring more than 16 fantasy points per game. His utilization over the last three games is top-six:
- Snaps: 83%
- Rush Attempts: 76%
- Route Participation: 54%
The veteran back also ranks ahead of the NFL average in every efficiency metric and plays in a quality offense. He could be a 20-point-per-game option down the stretch.
➡️ Trade Target: Tee Higgins
Higgins hasn't had the explosion game that many expected since Ja'Marr Chase left the lineup. However, he has a 25%-plus target share in four out of seven games where he participated in at least 50% of routes.
The third-year WR ranks 14th in the NFL in YPRR (1.99), and big days are ahead in a Bengals offense that has shown a willingness to go pass-heavy.
For another trade target at WR, check out the Utilization Report below.
➡️ Trade Target: Dalton Schultz
Schultz has battled an MCL injury but should be the healthiest we have seen after a bye week to rest. He has been heavily targeted on a per-route basis, with Dak Prescott back under center. He should be a mid-range TE1 the rest of the way.
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Volume is king in fantasy football and sports betting, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Each week, Dwain dives deep into the data, so you don't have to.
🤑 Buy Low
🤑 WR – Amon-Ra St. Brown
St. Brown hasn't had a top-20 finish since Week 2. He suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 3 that kept him off the field in Week 4 and limited his route participation to 41% in Week 5. In Week 7, he suffered a head/neck injury on the first drive, only participating in 12% of the routes.
However, over the last two games, he has 95% and 100% route participation marks and target shares of 26% and 43%.
By using TPRR, we cut through the target share noise created by injuries. St. Brown’s 31% is second to only Tyreek Hill (34%). Cooper Kupp (29%), CeeDee Lamb (28%), and Stefon Diggs (27%) are the other WRs in his zip code (minimum 175 routes).
The second-year WR’s 2.16 YPRR also remains top-notch (10th), making ARSB a player to push hard for before your league trade deadline.
Since 2010, WRs with at least 500 routes and a 28%-plus TPRR and 2.00-plus YPRR averaged 20 PPR points per game. On average, they finished as the WR5.
The Sun God is currently the WR26 over and WR17 in points per game but has WR1 upside. Y'all know what to do.
📈 Upgrades
📈 RB – Antonio Gibson
Last week, Gibson made the sell-high section of this column, but J.D. McKissic missed Week 9 due to a neck injury. He was supposed to see a specialist last week, and the team said they will approach the injury with caution.
Gibson didn’t come up big in the box score with 6.7 fantasy points, but his utilization took a huge step forward with his highest route participation (54%) of the season. The former collegiate WR took over the passing-down work.
Gibson has shown an elite ability to demand targets (29% TPRR), and with more passing game work, that could lead to some gaudy numbers. His 1.85 YPRR ranks 4th among RBs with at least 200 routes.
Over the last ten years, RBs with 25%-plus TPRR, 1.50-plus YPRR, and less than 50% of rushing attempts have averaged 16 PPR points per game.
Brian Robinson Jr. has been less effective than the average NFL back in every underlying efficiency metric, which also leaves the door open for a larger workload on the ground for Gibson.
Gibson is a mid-range RB2 with RB1 upside while J.D. McKissic is out.
📈 WR – Terrace Marshall Jr.
Marshall has a 96% route participation since the departure of Robbie Anderson, and the former second-round pick has target shares of 26% and 20% over the last two games.
The Panthers’ offense will have its challenges, but the target tree is narrow, with only Marshall and D.J. Moore as options. The young WR has had fantasy-relevant games with both P.J. Walker and Baker Mayfield at QB.
Rarely do we get the opportunity to add a young talent with a big upgrade in opportunity so late into the fantasy season. This makes Marshall a priority add as an upside WR4 that could provide WR2 value in the fantasy playoffs. He is available in 94% of Yahoo! Leagues.
- FAB: 10-20%
😧 We all make bad start/sit decisions. Don't be too hard on yourself.
♟️ This rookie WR has a unique strategy. These guys are soooo good.
❓ Should we be starting Aaron Rodgers in Fantasy? Marcas & Dwain break it down on the Fantasy Life Podcast.
🥵 A system back? This RB is the new kid in town, but I don't think it matters.
🤭 Who is this dude? Fantasy analysts are out here catching strays.
📣 Whew, close call for Josh Allen. But will he play this week?
😰 Games are close this season. Historically close.
☠️ This seems really bad. Unless you are the opposing RB.
⬆️ Things are looking up for Kenny Pickett. Can he take advantage?
Each week we'll feature a premiere matchup on the slate and break it down from all angles. Today, Fantasy Life contributor Kevin Tompkins tackles the Cowboys/Packers Week 10 tilt...
If the Packers want to play meaningful football after Thanksgiving, they’ll need this win. It will be a tall task for the Cowboys in Lambeau Field, where they are 1-8 since 2016 — Dak Prescott’s rookie season. Did I mention it’s head coach Mike McCarthy’s first trip back to Lambeau since getting the Cowboys job?
🤢 Packers
The Packers have been BAD as they rank 26th in EPA per pass attempt and grade as one of the slowest-paced teams in the league. They rank in the bottom five in plays per minute and play clock remaining in neutral scripts.
Since HC Matt LaFleur took over in 2019, they’ve averaged a strong 2.67 points per drive in games Rodgers has started (all but one) — the second-best mark in the NFL. This season? They’re the seventh-WORST team with 1.60 yards per drive. That’s in company with such offensive stalwarts as the Texans and Panthers. Not great, Bob.
Rodgers isn’t a QB you should be starting in fantasy, and the rest of the offensive pieces will have their work cut out as the Cowboys are the top defensive team in the NFL in DVOA.
The status of Aaron Jones also has some doubt heading into Week 10. Jones was spotted in a walking boot after their loss to the Lions, but tests came back negative for a high ankle sprain.
Even if Jones plays, we can’t be sure the Packers will use him correctly. Does he need to be freed again?
⭐ Cowboys
Dak Prescott had his best game since returning to the starting lineup with a QB4 finish and second-best PFF grade among QBs in Week 8. The Cowboys remain run-heavy with Prescott back, sporting a bottom-six pass rate (48%) since coming back. Of course, it helps to go against the Packers’ second-worst rush DVOA this season.
CeeDee Lamb has made that giant leap to the elite WR tier. Only three WRs in the NFL have a 30% target share and 40% air yards share this season: A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Lamb. Lamb is only WR17 in PPR fantasy points per game despite those lofty metrics, so could we get more pass volume? Please?
As far as the running game goes, it will ultimately come down to Ezekiel Elliott’s health. Tony Pollard is more than capable, as he showed in Week 8 with his three-touchdown, 147-yard outburst against the Bears. Among RB with 50+ carries, Pollard is fifth in the NFL in yards after contact per carry with 0.8 and sixth in yards BEFORE contact with 5.3. We know who the better back is. Does Jerry Jones?
When it comes to regression, it pays to be ahead of the curve. Each week on Regression Session, Jonathan will give you actionable insights on trends that are unlikely to continue so you can act before your leaguemates.
📈 Positive Regression - Mike Evans
Evans started the season hot but has been mediocre for fantasy football over the past month. Over his first three games (Weeks 1, 2, and 4) Evans was the WR7 in half PPR scoring, averaging just over 78 yards and one TD per game. Since Week 5, Evans has managed just 54 yards per game and failed to score.
Despite the lack of scoring, Evans has still been heavily involved in the offense. Over the past three weeks, he has averaged more than 11 targets per game and has had his two highest air yards outings of the season. The Bucs are all in for this year with Tom Brady at QB and are in the midst of a playoff battle that puts every win at a premium. I expect them to lean on their best players down the stretch, which should mean that Evans will continue to remain very involved.
As your trade deadline approaches, don’t feel like you have to sell low on Evans. He should bounce back with some monster games down the stretch when he finds the endzone again.
📉 Negative Regression - Tyler Allgeier
Falcons’ rookie RB Allgeier had a nice stretch over the past three weeks, posting RB14 production on RB24 usage (per PFF). He has been efficient both on the ground and through the air, outperforming his expected rushing and receiving yardage during that time. However, there are now multiple factors working against Allgeier that may limit his fantasy relevance over the next few weeks.
Week 9 marked the return of Cordarrelle Patterson, who immediately led the backfield in touches and scored twice on carries inside the five-yard line. If C-Patt is back to being the focal point of the offense, then that will limit Allgeier to low-value touches and a change of pace role.
You may be pointing out that Allgeier was perfectly serviceable this week despite Patterson’s return, but this was largely due to the fact that 68 of his 123 total yards came on just two plays. While it’s great to create explosive plays, we shouldn’t expect to rely on them to sustain the fantasy value of a player whose athletic profile was anything but explosive.
