I hope no one made Michael Carter a cake with "RB1" frosting...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by PFF.
- Another big RB trade shakes things up
- The Colts are making a QB change
- Buy/Sell/Hold. Cooterdoodle gives you market advice
- A Maddening Stat
- Sam's Waiver Wire Diving: Week 8 pickups
- Sam's Breakout Watch: Gus Edwards & Chubba Hubbard
- It's 10/25. Take it away Peter Overzet
Last week we got the CMC to San Fran bombshell and last night we got word that another RB is on the move:
Comp update: Jets are trading a 6th-round pick that could become a 5th to Jacksonville for RB James Robinson, per source.
The trade makes plenty of sense for both teams and is pretty straight-forward from a fantasy perspective...
📈 Winners: Travis Etienne, James Robinson
Etienne is the undisputed winner of this move. The writing was on the wall after Sunday's big performance, but the move confirms Etienne is on a rocket ship headed to RB1 territory. Sure, JaMycal Hasty and Snoop Conner will get some touches, but those are merely speed bumps, not roadblocks, on Etienne's league-winning path.
As for Robinson, he escapes being buried on the Jags (Etienne had iced him to the tune of 12 snaps and 2 routes yesterday) to fill the void left by Breece Hall's season-ending injury. He won't have the whole backfield to himself, but Robinson should have a good chunk of the early-down work, as well as the gig at the goal line.
📉 Losers: Michael Carter
Carter is the one big loser from this deal. He enjoyed a little over 24 hours as the undisputed lead back of the Jets before the team rained on his parade. He should own most of the passing downs, but his ceiling will be capped with Robinson mixing in everywhere else.
😲 A crazy QB takeover in Indy
I pounded the table for Kenny Pickett to take over in Pittsburgh, and that finally happened.
I would really love to see the Jets go back to Joe Flacco so the pass catchers can return from the dead.
But one QB change I absolutely did not see coming was Sam Freakin' Ehlinger taking over for Matt Ryan:
It is telling that Frank Reich *knows* his job is on the line and he believes Sam Ehlinger has a better chance to save it than Matt Ryan.
When the Colts traded a 2022 3rd round pick to the Falcons in exchange for Ryan, I can't imagine they ever envisioned benching him for their 6th round pick in the 2021 draft class.
As far as what this means for the rest of offense, we don't have a lot to go on. Ehlinger was fine in limited preseason work and does have a history of running the ball in college, but the jury is out on his passing abilities.
I think this is likely a neutral move for the run game (Jonathan Taylor should be fine), but it's likely a slight downgrade for the pass-catchers.
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Each week during the season, Cooterdoodle walks us through the fantasy trade market from a buy, hold, sell perspective...
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NFL trade deadline edition, kind of...
With the NFL trade deadline a week away, we are likely in store for some blockbuster announcements in the coming days. Here are some players to acquire before we know where they’re headed.
BUY
🛒Kareem Hunt
With every breaking NFL story comes a fantasy football opportunity. The Cleveland Browns are rumored to be open to trading away Kareem Hunt, and I bet your league mate is open to the idea as well. After two rough weeks with only 16 yards combined, Hunt could find himself on a team that will give him more than 5 carries a game.
Just think about it…Kareem would look good in blue or green. Strike now while the stats are cold and boring. Let’s see where the chips fall.
🛒 Jerry Jeudy
We finally saw Jerry Jeudy getting targeted in Week 7 with Brett Rypien at QB. Jeudy turned a season-high of 7 receptions into 96 yards, but there is potential that the Broncos are looking to send him to another team before November 1st.
The good news is this: Jeudy managers are likely ready to ‘sell high’ off of his Week 7 stats. But if Jeudy makes his way to Green Bay, New York, or honestly anywhere far, far away from Nathaniel Hackett, it’s an upgrade. If you need a WR, take a shot on Jeudy before the deadline.
🛒 Brandin Cooks
If anything, Cooks has been consistently producing year to year. He’s not shiny and new, but he’s proven to be undervalued at fantasy drafts, finishing top 20 at the receiver position more often than not since 2015.
This year, however, Cooks hasn’t seen quite as much success, but several teams have called the Texans looking to trade. Worst case scenario, you have a WR that can put up 10-15 points a week. Best case, Cooks moves to a team that can truly utilize him on bigger plays and in the endzone.
🛒 Michael Pittman Jr.
With 9 TDs and a matching 9 INTs, the Colts are moving on from an injured Matt Ryan and starting Sam Ehlinger in Week 8. One could argue either side of the Michael Pittman story. Does he benefit from the QB change, or does Ehlinger’s rushing upside and passing downside cap him?
Colts HC Frank Reich says Ehlinger brings a “special sauce” to the offense. While I admittedly have no clue what that means, I am Pro-Condiments and hope this translates into Pittman getting a special taste of the endzone. Pittman shouldn’t cost much in trade capital, and this is the time of the year to acquire upside. #specialsauce
🙏🏻 This WR is bouncing back. Keep the faith.
🤣 This is a funny bit, Davante. Lmao.
🙌 Good news on both Amon-Ra St. Brown and DK Metcalf. That's a relief...as is this.
🏃 A vintage game plan for the Ravens. It's not great for fantasy managers.
🤮 This is the most triggering stat I've ever seen. Thanks, I hate it.
✍️ Note to refs: don't ask for autographs. Whoops.
💔 So long sweet prince, it's time to drop this explosive WR. We'll always have Week 1.
🔮 I bet you can't guess which two TEs led the position in pass routes last week. Go ahead and try.
Waivers are a crucial component of fantasy football, and nabbing the next league winner ahead of your leaguemates can help you edge out that title. Each Tuesday, Sam Wallace will highlight players to target in your redraft leagues.
These players are rostered in most leagues, but would be priority adds over anyone mentioned in this column if available in your league:
- Michael Carter (Available in 35% of leagues)
- D’Onta Foreman (Available in 51% of leagues)
- Gus Edwards (Available in 57% of leagues)
➕ RB Chuba Hubbard
- Available in 64% of leagues
The departure of RB Christian McCaffrey left a gaping hole in the Panthers backfield. The discussion surrounding whether it would be RB D’Onta Foreman or RB Chuba Hubbard who would have more fantasy value turned out to be both.
Foreman, rosterd in over half of leagues, racked up 118 rushing yards on 15 carries but it was Hubbard who found the end zone. Both backs caught two passes as the Panthers dominated the Buccaneers on both sides of the ball. Foreman figures to remain the 1A but Hubbard won’t be far behind.
FAAB: 20%
➕ WR Van Jefferson
- Available in 94% of leagues
WR Van Jefferson is reportedly targeting a Week 8 return after he missed the start of the season following a knee procedure. The Rams offense desperately needs someone besides WR Cooper Kupp to contribute and Jefferson could provide some relief for QB Matthew Stafford.
In 2021, Jefferson was the Rams WR2 with a line of 50 / 802 / 6 through the air on 89 targets. He posted an impressive 16 yards/reception and averaged over 51 snaps/game (PFF). Assuming health, he should contribute almost immediately alongside Kupp and WR Allen Robinson.
FAAB: 15%
➕ WR Mecole Hardman
- Available in 74% of leagues
While it’s been WR JuJu Smith-Schuster who has assumed the WR1 mantle for the Chiefs, fellow WR Mecole Hardman continues to see his role expand as the secondary option. He topped 40 snaps again for the first time since Week 3 (PFF).
Normally tabbed as a boom/bust player, he has at least four targets in three straight games. He also has either 70 receiving yards or a TD in each game of that stretch. The Chiefs are on bye next week so only stash Hardman if you have the space to wait an extra week.
FAAB: 10%
Need more waiver wire guidance? Check out our NEW Waiver Wire Hub for more picks from Sam & Dwain McFarland!
Playing safe ain't it. We need to make big moves to win our leagues. Today, Sam Holt identifies two players primed for breakouts...
🤯 Gus Edwards
In week six, JK Dobbins suffered a setback from his previous knee injury, and Kenyan Drake broke out with a dominant performance. Once Dobbins was placed on IR, one could assume Drake would continue leading the backfield. Unfortunately not, Gus Edwards rolled in, fresh off his knee injury, and jumped into the leading role.
Edwards dominated the Ravens’ backfield. He scored 18.6 fantasy points (PPR) with 16 carries for 66 yards and turned each RedZone opportunity into a TD. Meanwhile, Drake could not capitalize on his 11 carries, which amounted to 5 yards.
The commanding performance by Edwards landed him in the top 10 at the position for the week. Edwards’ output should remove any hesitation from fantasy managers looking to start him. As long as Dobbins is out, the number one role belongs to Edwards.
🤯 Chubba Hubbard
The Panthers had a fire sale last week, first shipping Robbie Anderson to the Cardinals and then shocking us all by trading Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers. This void in the running game left us wondering who would step up, Chubba Hubbard or D’Onta Foreman. Seeing how week seven played out, the answer could be both, but here's why I prefer Hubbard.
Leading the backfield, Hubbard commanded 55% of the offensive snaps and 67% of the rushing attempts (Data per Dwain McFarland). This usage led him to nine carries for 63 yards, one rushing TD, and a pair of catches for 10 yards.
Unfortunately, Hubbard left the game with an ankle injury, but afterward, we heard that the setback was minor, and Hubbard could have come back in if the team needed him. Although the final stat line had Foreman finishing with more fantasy points than Hubbard (by 1.2 pts), their usage separates them. Foreman was only involved in 35% of the snaps and 33% of the rushing attempts, half of what Hubbard saw.
With the significant void left by McCaffrey, there are plenty of carries and targets to go around. In addition, the Panthers' next matchup lines up well for Hubbard, as the Falcons have allowed the 10th most TDs to backs this season.
Live look at a fantasy manager with Travis Etienne
