I would type something clever here, but I just looked up the weather in Kansas City, and my fingers are now frozen …
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Underdog:
- Saturday Injuries: Dolphins = no defense.
- Underdog Pick’Em: We’ve got the goods!
- Texans vs. Browns: Will Flacco stay hot?
- Chiefs vs. Dolphins: Sub-zero temp, no big deal.
- It’s 1/13: Take it away, Matthew Freedman …
Super Wild Card Weekend kicks off today with two games: Browns at Texans and Dolphins at Chiefs. While Matt LaMarca and Geoff Ulrich break down these games later in the newsletter, here are the key injuries to be aware of for each matchup.
🤠 Texans
The Texans are without rotational EDGE Jerry Hughes (ankle), but their injury report is otherwise encouraging.
All four starters on the Texans defensive line are questionable, but I’m optimistic on EDGE Will Anderson (ankle) and DTs Sheldon Rankins (ankle) and Maliek Collins (hip), all of whom played through questionable tags last week. I’m less certain on EDGE Jonathan Greenard (ankle), who has missed the past two games, but it’s positive that he closed the week with a limited practice.
On offense, WRs Noah Brown (hip) and Robert Woods (hip) missed last week but have a shot to play after practicing on Thursday.
🐶 Browns
The Browns will be without K Dustin Hopkins (hamstring), WR Cedric Tillman (concussion), and SS Grant Delpit (groin, IR) — but we’re talking about a specialist, depth pass catcher, and guy who has been out for the past month. Not a big deal.
More meaningful and concerning are the questionable tags in the secondary. Slot CB Greg Newsome (knee) is returning to action, but No. 1 CB Denzel Ward (shoulder, knee) now seems legitimately uncertain after suffering an injury in practice.
If Ward is out, the Browns could have a cluster situation if backup CB Mike Ford (calf, Q) and FS Juan Thornhill (calf, Q) — both of whom missed last week — don’t suit up. I think they both will after getting in multiple limited practices, but we can’t assume.
🏹 Chiefs
Locked into the No. 3 seed, the Chiefs treated Week 18 like a miniature bye, so they’re healthy.
Swing OT Wanya Morris (concussion) is out, and depth WRs Kadarius Toney (hip) and Justyn Ross (hamstring) are technically questionable, but both can probably play given that they practiced every day (albeit limitedly). Then again, neither Toney nor Ross might be needed with WR Mecole Hardman‘s Week 17 return from a thumb injury.
🐬 Dolphins
The injury situation for the Dolphins is bad.
The good news is that RB Raheem Mostert (knee, ankle) and WR Jaylen Waddle (ankle) will probably play through questionable tags after practicing all week.
The bad news is that the team’s already decimated defense suffered even more injuries in last week’s loss: Out for the year are EDGEs Andrew Van Ginkel (foot, IR) and Cameron Goode (knee, IR) and LB Jerome Baker (wrist, IR).
And the secondary could be without three starters: CB Xavien Howard (foot) is out for a second straight game, and SS DeShon Elliott (calf, Q) and FS Jevon Holland (knees, Q) will likely sit after not practicing all week.
The Dolphins pass defense could be extremely vulnerable, which is one of the reasons I’m betting on the Chiefs.
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The NFL playoffs get started with an old-school vs. new-school showdown. C.J. Stroud will be making the first postseason start of his career, while Joe Flacco will be making his 16th. Will the rookie get his first playoff win, or does the old dog have one more run in him? Matt LaMarca breaks down his best bets for Browns-Texans:
🐶 Best Bet: Browns -2.0 (-110, BetMGM)
While the Texans have the edge at QB with Stroud, the postseason experience factor makes things closer than they appear on paper. Even all-time greats have struggled in their first postseason start, so expectations should be tempered for Stroud.
Since 2002, QBs making their first playoff start are 17-35-1 ATS and 17-36 straight up when facing a QB with playoff experience. And Flacco doesn’t just have playoff experience; he’s excelled in the postseason throughout his career. He won a Super Bowl with the Ravens in 2012 and is 10-5 straight up in the playoffs. Flacco's five playoff losses came against three future Hall of Fame QBs: one loss to Peyton Manning, two to Ben Roethlisberger, and two to none other than Tom Brady.
The early betting action on this matchup was all Cleveland, driving this number from Browns -1.5 to -2.5. Since then, there has been some support for the Texans, pushing this number back down to -2.0.
While it’s never great to see the line move against you, I still think the Browns are the correct side. Their defense has been elite all season, and they should make life extremely difficult for Stroud in his first postseason start. Flacco has seen it all and should be unfazed by all the postseason hoopla. I’m fine with playing them at anything less than a field goal.
⬇️ Top Prop: Jerome Ford Under 2.5 Receptions (+105, DraftKings)
We have Ford projected for exactly 2.5 receptions, so getting the under at +105 stands out as a decent value. Personally, 2.5 feels on the high end of Ford’s range of outcomes: He’s racked up two catches or fewer in three straight games, including his past two contests with Flacco.
The Texans defense has been middle of the pack in terms of defending RBs in the passing game. They’ve allowed 4.5 catches per game to opposing backs, and the Browns have multiple mouths to feed at the position. Kareem Hunt has played approximately 35% of the snaps in the Browns backfield, and he has been removed from the injury report. Hunt is also a viable receiver in his own right, so he could certainly steal some touches from Ford.
🚀 Same-Game Parlay (+850, FanDuel)
- Browns -2.5
- Over 44.5
- Flacco Over 275.5 passing yards
- David Njoku anytime TD
I’m looking to play this game in the same way a lot of the Browns recent wins have gone: Lots of passing production from Flacco in a higher-scoring game. The sharps have shown a preference for the over in this spot, and the Browns are 11-6 to the over for the year. That’s tied with the Lions and Colts for the best mark in the league.
I’m also looking for David Njoku to find the paint. The Texans have been weak against opposing TEs this season, and Njoku has been busy since Flacco arrived. He’s garnered 47% of the team’s endzone looks since Week 13, so he’s a solid option in the anytime TD market.
Christmas is over but baby, it’s still cold outside. Highs of two degrees and winds of 15 mph await the Chiefs and Dolphins tonight. Miami enters this game 0-9 over their last nine games played with on-field temperatures of under 40 degrees. So can Mike McDaniel and crew buck the trend, or will the Chiefs begin their march to another AFC championship game this week?
Geoff Ulrich gives his best bets for Chiefs-Dolphins.
🥶 Best Bet: Under 44 (-110, bet365)
- Play to: 43.5 (-110)
The weather is going to make this the coldest game of the season. The highs are expected to be around two degrees, and winds will also be whipping up to 15 mph. That’s really cold, and definitely at a level where it can affect passing game efficiency. Per the Monday Betting Life newsletter, unders have gone 15-5-1 since 2003 in all playoff games with winds of 10-plus mph and freezing temperatures (no higher than 32 degrees).
From a matchup perspective, the Chiefs secondary has done well at limiting explosive plays all season (3rd in EPA per dropback). They held Tua Tagovailoa to under 200 passing yards — and Tyreek Hill to under 70 receiving yards — when these two teams met back in Week 9, a game that was played in ideal conditions.
Throw in the fact that the under in Chiefs games is 12-5 this season (7-1 in Kansas City), and betting the under looks extremely appealing from all angles.
⬆️ Top Prop: Durham Smythe Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110, BetMGM)
- Projection: 20.9
- Play to: 19.5
Smythe has been a solid outlet for Tua Tagovailoa down the stretch, converting his last 15 targets in a row into catches. And while it looks like Tagovailoa will have both his starting WRs healthy, I doubt he goes away from the kind of consistency that Smythe has provided of late, especially given the weather conditions.
As mentioned above, the Chiefs are great at defending on the boundaries (third-fewest yards allowed to opposing WRs) but it often comes at the expense of allowing more big plays over the middle. In five of their past six games, at least one TE has gone for 30-plus receiving yards against the Chiefs, and over the past month they have allowed big games (60-plus yards) to such TE luminaries as Donald Parham and Hunter Henry.
Overall, Smythe has cleared this target easily in each of the past four games, so it’s not as if we’re asking him to do something he hasn’t already done (a lot). In a game in which Miami is projected to be trailing late (+4.5 underdogs) Smythe’s over remains appealing.
🤝 Same-Game Parlay (+1900, DraftKings)
- Travis Kelce anytime TD
- Smythe over 18.5 rec yards
- Smythe over 2.5 rec
- Tagovailoa to throw an INT
- Under 43.5
The Dolphins have been dealing with a lot of injuries on defense of late, and it’s started to affect their coverage. Over the past two weeks, they’ve given up a lot of big plays to opposing TEs with many of those catches coming in the red zone. Overall, Miami has now allowed four TDs to opposing TEs over their past two games, making it a great week to target the TD prop of TE Travis Kelce; who has scored 16 TDs in 18 career playoff games and is coming off a week of rest.
The other reason I like using the Kelce TD prop is that it gives us a chance to negatively correlate with the under on the game total, which in turn gives a boost to our overall SGP odds. The Chiefs still have a 24.5-point implied team total, and them scoring two or even three TDs won't necessarily kill the under leg of this bet.
After that, adding in our Smythe props and a Tagovailoa interception (he’s thrown 22 INTs in 25 career road starts) gets us the rest of the way to a reasonable +1900 same-game parlay to sweat.
