Big year on tap for Corey Davis if Zach Wilson stays on brand...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- Breaking down the Alvin Kamara suspension scenarios
- Pete's Best Ball Summer School: QB & TE Tips
- The QB sleeping with his mom's friend
- Jonathan's favorite players on Underdog
- Team preview: Kansas City Chiefs
- It’s 7/11. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
One of the biggest fantasy dominoes yet to fall this offseason is the rumored Alvin Kamara suspension.
Drew Davenport has a really good thread on the issue that I recommend reading here and he says that a lot of people are wrongly jumping to foregone conclusions.
His big takeaway is that a trial could get pushed out late into the fall and that a suspension is unlikely to impact the 2022 season.
Setting aside whether Kamara is guilty or not, this is a big deal for fantasy drafts where uncertainty on the situation has pushed him as far down as the fourth round:
The time to draft Alvin Kamara is from now until August 1st. His ADP was in the 18th overall range. Now at 33rd overall. If his case gets pushed into 2023, it sounds like we will know that on August 1st, so this late Round 3 ADP could only last for a month. Big deal for BBM3.
If you believe Davenport's analysis is correct, it's worth loading up on Kamara now while the discount is still available.
Today Professor Pete shares his guide to handling the "onesie positions" in best ball tournaments aka QBs and TEs.
So far this summer we’ve introduced you to best ball 101 concepts, highlighted the three dominant RB strategies in drafts, and explained why stacking is so important in best ball tournaments.
Today, we are going to expand beyond RBs and focus on two other positions where we can get a structural edge on our opponents, QBs and TEs.
What are the onesie positions? The starting lineup requirements on Underdog are 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 FLEX. We call QB and TE “onesie” positions because we only need to fill one of them in our weekly starting lineup, unlike RBs and WRs where we need to fill multiple spots.
One thing we hammered home in our RB roster construction piece was getting comfortable with quality or quantity, but not both. The same principle holds true for the onesie positions.
If you get an elite QB early, say Josh Allen or Justin Herbert, you only need to draft one more QB. Same thing for grabbing an elite TE like Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews.
You are drafting like you are right and working under the assumption that Allen or Herbert will be in your starting lineup most weeks. It’s very unlikely that a third QB drafted later will outscore your elite QB enough times to justify the opportunity cost of passing on another position that requires more spots in your starting lineup.
The elite QBs and TEs. So how do we define elite QBs and elite TEs? Everyone’s definition and range of players is going to be slightly different, but I’ll share mine.
I consider these 7 to be the elite QBs (and Trey Lance is loudly knocking on the door):
And here are the 7 TEs I consider to be elite:
We can debate until the cows come home about who should or shouldn’t be included in those tiers, but I define “elite” as the players who allow me to only take one other player at the same onesie position.
Your mileage may vary, but the takeaway should be to find your own sweet spot of where you are comfortable going with a 2-QB or 2-TE build vs. a 3-QB or 3-TE build.
Extra credit reading: Hayden Winks' study on when to take your QB2 after taking an elite QB.
The benefits of taking an elite QB and TE. There are two big benefits to grabbing an elite player at the onesie position:
1) Separation at the position. There are only a handful of QBs and TEs who can put up a 30+ point week at the position. If we are fortunate enough to make it to the Week 17 finals in one of the Underdog tournaments, it is a massive advantage to have one of these players who can separate at the position.
A 3-TE build of late round tight ends (say Tyler Higbee, Evan Engram, and Austin Hooper) might be able to cobble enough points to advance you through a couple playoff rounds, but none of those players can realistically match the one-week ceiling of an elite TE like Kelce or Andrews.
2) Optionality. If you miss out on a top tier QB or TE it means you are likely forced to a 3-QB or 3-TE build. This isn’t the end of the world, but it means you are sacrificing an extra RB or WR selection to tack on the third onesie. And because you can start multiple RBs and WRs in your lineup, they are the more valuable selections.
However, if you get an elite QB or TE, you now have more flexibility with how to approach your structure. A good example of this would be if you are implementing a hyperfragile build where you took 3 RBs early. In these builds, we know we need to make up for our lack of WR quality with quantity. If you get forced to a 3QB or 3TE build, that’s one or two extra selections that can’t be used on WRs, your biggest weakness.
TLDR: The elite onesies provide both a higher upside/ceiling in the money rounds and give drafters max optionality for properly executing the three dominant RB structures we’ve previously highlighted.
As with everything we’ve been discussing in hot best ball summer school, we want to be flexible to each specific draft room and react accordingly.
The best way to get comfortable with roster construction is to hop into one of the Underdog Tournaments (Puppy 2 or Best Ball Mania III) and get some drafts under your belt. First-time depositors get up to a $100 deposit match with promo code LIFE.
Next week we’ll dive into an advanced concept: Week 17-specific correlation. See ya then, don’t be late.
🌶️ The QB sleeping with his mom's best friend. Now that's a spicy story.
💸 The QB who needs money. Now *this* is a new negotiation tactic.
🏆 Who are you betting on to win the Super Bowl this season? Here are the current odds, courtesy of BetMGM.
⛱️ Another shirtless RB workout video. Not to be outdone by Zeke, Melvin Gordon is shredding it up in the sand.
🕵️ Potential landing spots for Jimmy Garoppolo. David Bonilla hints at a few trade partners for the Niners here.
🛸 The TE who just saw a UFO. Maybe he'll spot a QB next.
🏁 Jaylen Waddle vs. Tyreek Hill in a race?? Waddle makes his case.
Our best ball bro Jonathan Fuller shares the players he's been drafting the most on Underdog Fantasy this summer and why.
With hot best ball summer now in full swing our portfolio of players should be taking shape and aligning with both our player takes and preferred structural drafting strategies.
Last week Professor Pete shared his most drafted players and I wasn’t surprised to learn that we share a couple of our most rostered players in common. I won’t make the case for those same players again so today I am going to talk through the rest of the guys that I have been prioritizing in drafts so far.
Elijah Moore (ADP 68.8; Jonathan’s exposure: 22%)
Despite missing time during his rookie season and playing on one of the league’s worst offenses, we saw flashes of true greatness from Moore last year. From Week 8 to Week 12 he compiled 28 catches for 392 yards and 5 touchdowns while playing with 4 (!) different QBs.
Moore was also an excellent prospect coming out of college, which makes me want to bet on his potential as a second-year breakout. If you need any more convincing on his talent, just read this thread from our CEO.
If his ceiling scenario plays out we could be looking at one of the great young receivers in the league and we’ll be reminiscing about the year we were able to draft him in the 6th round.
Kenneth Gainwell (ADP 155.4; Jonathan’s exposure: 20%)
The Eagles are one of my favorite teams to target in best ball drafts because I believe most of their players are underpriced. That is especially true for Gainwell. who showed explosive playmaking ability last season and should step into a bigger role this year.
The Eagles are PFF’s number 1 ranked offensive line coming into the season and are also looking to be more balanced after transitioning to a run-heavy approach midway through last season. These are both positives for Gainwell who is the team’s best pass-catching back and is capable of ripping off huge runs with good blocking.
Miles Sanders will start the season as the feature back, but he has struggled with injuries throughout his career. This makes Gainwell one of my favorite types of RBs to draft: a player with weekly upside in their current role as well as major contingent value if the starter gets hurt.
Jameson Williams (ADP 132.3; Jonathan’s exposure: 25%)
This one may raise some eyebrows, but I’ve been drafting Jameson Williams regularly and will continue to do so. Yes, I’m aware he probably won’t be active to start the season but I’m far more focused on what he can be for the second half of the year.
Williams is an electric downfield threat who had a strong case to be considered the best WR in this draft class. The Lions selected him with the 12th overall pick and I expect this offense to take a step forward this year given their strong O-line and sneaky good skill position players.
Lastly, in case you missed the biggest topic of best ball summer so far, Week 17 is all that matters. The Lions host the Bears in Week 17, which is one of my favorite under-the-radar games to stack because it is in a dome and should feature two of the league’s worst defenses. If Williams emerges over the second half of the season like I think he can, he is an excellent candidate to put up a huge performance in the championship week when it matters most.
The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, Kevin Tompkins previews the Kansas City Chiefs...
The Chiefs finished 12-5 last season and were one win away from the Super Bowl after playing in what was arguably the game of the year against the Bills in the Divisional Round. The Chiefs eventually tripped up against Joe Burrow and the upstart Bengals, ending their season.
The offensive makeup of the Chiefs will look a bit different in 2022 after the offseason trade of Tyreek Hill. Despite these changes, the team still employs Patrick Mahomes as their QB so they’ll always have a fighting chance. BetMGM has the team pegged for double-digit victories, but can this personnel shake-up get the Chiefs back to the Super Bowl?
⚙️ Offseason changes
- Signed RB Ronald Jones, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency.
- Lost WRs Hill, Demarcus Robinson, and Byron Pringle, as well as RB Darrel Williams.
- Drafted WR Skyy Moore and RB Isiah Pacheco, plus signed WR Justyn Ross as an undrafted free agent.
✨ Team vibes
We’re still humming here when it comes to the Chiefs’ vibes.
Mahomes finished as "only" the QB5 in points per game (PPG) in 2021, but the newly announced boy dad’s fantasy points floor is still way higher than most QB ceilings. You can get him at a discount in drafts right now as the QB3 behind Josh Allen and Justin Herbert.
Kelce let Ravens TE Mark Andrews borrow the fantasy TE1 crown last season after standing atop the position in every season since 2016. Kelce still finished as TE2 in PPG, though, and enters 2022 as the top dog at the position in Waz’s rankings.
The Chiefs WR corps is a choose your own adventure where we have undefined roles for Smith-Schuster, Valdes-Scantling, and Moore. The rookie's role in Week 1 comes with the most uncertainty, as his true slot receiver profile presents some overlap with Smith-Schuster, who has thrived in the slot throughout his career.
My bull case for Smith-Schuster would be JuJu lining up outside with MVS on the other side and Moore in the slot in 3WR sets. The most defined role in this offense looks to be MVS, who is generating some serious buzz in camp and looks to be more than a “better in best ball” WR with the Chiefs.
🎯Draft targets
- QB Patrick Mahomes (Underdog ADP 50.2, QB3)
- RB Ronald Jones (Underdog ADP 125.8, RB40)
- WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Underdog ADP 56.7, WR27)
- WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Underdog ADP 96.3, WR45)
- TE Travis Kelce (Underdog ADP 12.1, TE1)
👋Draft fades
- RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Underdog ADP 81.9, RB27)
- WR Skyy Moore (Underdog ADP 98.3, WR47)
- WR Mecole Hardman (Underdog ADP 128.4, WR59)
Tell Trey Lance's arm that I'm tired too but I still get up and go to work every day.
🚨 41 Ways To RUIN The Lives Of Your Fantasy Football League Mates in 2022 🚨
THREAD 🧵
Zach Wilson in his family’s living room
