Mom, wake up! Cam Newton is talking about Cam Newton again...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by: BetMGM
- NFL Love Triangles: Players and Paychecks
- Dynasty Stock Watch: Lions and Giants. Oh my.
- Dynasty Rookie Profile: Bijan 'Rookie 1.01' Robinson
- Free Agency Awards: Arbitrary & reductive, but fun.
- It's 3/22. Take it away, Cooterdoodle...
Look, break-ups are tough. Especially when they're public.
Don't worry, this newsletter isn't sponsored by Pete Davidson. We're talking about the NFL Love Triangles between players, organizations, and paychecks.
While it's always heartwarming to read a player's love letter to their city, like Jameis Winston’s recent message to New Orleans, Free Agency is often a time when players express less encouraging sentiments.
Think less Love Actually, and more Is Aaron Rodgers Actually Leaving?
Some players are ready to move on while others are begging for us to take them back (read: peacocking). Let’s get into this week's NFL Love Triangles.
💔 Austin Ekeler Wants to Feel Valued
Our very own Ian Hartitz warned us of the NFL’s meh-money deals for recently signed RBs in 2023 and it seems Austin Ekeler is airing similar concerns for his current contract with the Chargers.
"I'm so underpaid right now as far as my contract and what I contribute to the team."
Austin Ekeler via Green Light with Chris Long
The numbers don’t lie.
Ekeler wants to get a long-term deal done. While he only has 1 year left on his contract with Los Angeles and an extension looks unlikely, they did grant Ekeler permission to seek a trade. But don't panic just yet. The high-scoring, highly-targeted RB made it clear that he has no bad blood with the team or organization.
It looks like we have a classic case of feeling undervalued in a relationship. We’ve all been there. As an avid Ekeler and Chargers fan, I hope these two can work things out.
📞 Cam Newton is Calling
While Cam Newton’s most recent NFL stats come from his brief second-stint as a Carolina Panther back in 2021, he recently announced that he would be vying for a return by competing in Auburn’s Pro Day on Tuesday.
Cam is no stranger to exuding confidence and he's ready to show us why he's gunning for a comeback. Truth be told, his video on Monday posed a valid QB riddle: “Tell me how these randoms keep getting jobs.”
While it can be hard to decipher what Cam means sometimes, we all know he’s talking about ATL, WAS, and TB... Right?
Cam's looking to link up. We'll have to see if anyone answers.
🙃 “It’s not you, DeAndre. It’s me.” - Arizona
Rumors are swirling in Arizona as Cardinals fans brace themselves for the potential trading away of DeAndre Hopkins.
While 'Nuk' has scored 71 career TDs since 2013, the majority of his stats were sealed in a Texans uniform. As a Cardinal, Hopkins has not played more than 10 games in a single season since his first year with them in 2020 and he comes with a $30mil cap hit for Arizona.
For a team entering the 2023 season under both a new HC and GM, Arizona seems to be on a path towards rebuilding that may not be the best fit for Hopkins and his contract.
Sometimes it's just not meant to be.
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Free agency never fails to disappoint and this year was no different. As the dust settles on updated rosters, Sam helps up take a look at a few players who saw significant shifts in their dynasty stock.
📈 Dynasty Upgrade - TE Darren Waller
Giants get: Waller
Raiders get: 2023 3rd-round pick (No. 100)
It’s been a frustrating two seasons for Darren Waller but the pendulum appears to be swinging back after landing with the New York Giants.
Waller posted consecutive top-three finishes at the position in 2020 and 2021 but injuries held him to just 20 of 34 games from 2021-2022.
The landing spot couldn’t be better from an opportunity perspective, honestly.
The Giants are top-five in both available air yards and targets and are motivated to surround their newly-paid QB with as much help as possible.
Despite being 30-years old, Waller really only has four years of experience under his belt. He also plays a position that tends to produce high-end fantasy finishes at a later age more than any other position outside of QB.
As it stands, Waller is easily the most talented pass-catcher on the team. New York has three picks in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft (25, 57, and 89) so it’ll be worth following how they attack the first two days of the draft. If they don’t add any noteworthy skill-position players, Waller could lead the team in targets in 2023.
Assuming health (always fun/dangerous), Waller has the opportunity to reinsert himself into the upper echelon of TEs this season, especially in PPR formats.
Fantasy Life has Waller projected as a Top-5 TE for 2023.
📉 Dynasty Downgrade - RB David Montgomery
Contract: 3-years, $18 million with $11 million guaranteed
Let’s get right to it: RBs on their second contracts scare me in fantasy.
The relatively-short shelf life of RBs is reason enough for concern. When you couple that with the list of RBs to sign with new teams AND get paid the amount of money that Montgomery received, it’s…not good.
Good for Montgomery for getting a bag, but it’s not like we can just automatically give him all of Jamaal Williams’s 17 TDs from last year. Montgomery will have to contend with D’Andre Swift for touches, and Swift is significantly better than Montgomery’s previous backfield mate, Khalil Herbert.
The Lions should be an exciting team to watch once again in 2023, but Montgomery is someone I am looking to sell in dynasty.
KTC has Montgomery ranked as the dynasty RB25 with a trade value equivalent to the 2.03 rookie pick in superflex formats. I would bet that you might even be able to get a little bit more for him if there’s a RB-needy team in your league.
Montgomery is still only 25 years old, so there's some allure to him as a dynasty asset. I would be looking to flip him while the news of his signing is still fresh and exciting, as the data suggests that his best fantasy performances are possibly behind him.
Fantasy Life projects Montgomery to be a TD-dependent RB3 in 2023.
The Stock Watch Never Ends! Find more here!
❤️ A Patriots legend says goodbye. What a career.
🕰️ JJ Watt respects this level of performance. He even bought merch.
🏆 The best tweet of all time? Cardale Jones deserves to be considered.
💵 Jimmy G received an offer from Las Vegas. Well, another one.
🤕 Should we be worried about injuries in Fantasy Football? The answer is maybe.
🏆 And the Free Agency Award goes to... We want to thank the academy.
👽 This doesn't seem possible. Is the government involved?
💍 The Cowboys sign a two-time SB champ. Will he get another ring?
👨🏫 Good morning, class. Let's introduce a new WR to our fantasy teams.
With the Super Bowl behind us, it's time to turn our attention to the NFL Draft and the incoming 2023 rookie class. Eliot Crist discusses the pros and cons of Bijan Robinson as a dynasty prospect and whether the hype is warranted.
👑 Bijan Robinson
- Underdog ADP: 13.5
- Rookie Draft ADP: 1
📈 Pros
The phrase “generational prospect” gets thrown around too often these days, but such an accolade is well-deserved when it comes to Robinson.
The 2022 All-American and Doak Walker Award winner finished fourth all-time in rushing at Texas, sandwiched between future Hall of Famer Jamaal Charles and current Hall of Famer Earl Campbell.
Robinson's production at Texas was due to a rare combination of size and speed, one that dreams are made of for RBs. But Robinson is more than just an elite athlete. On top of his superb acceleration and top-end speed, Robinson has excellent vision and contact balance.
As a result, Robinson can run through arm tackles, and he can make defenders miss in the open field, consistently showing the ability to stack moves. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), his 104 missed tackles forced last season led all college RBs, and 1,071 of Robinson's 1,575 rushing yards came after contact.
In addition to being an outstanding runner, Robinson possesses elite traits as a pass-catcher as well. Robinson has a developed route tree, soft hands, and big play ability, so he can play all three downs and never needs to come off the field. It's rare to find a RB that can all do the things Robinson can as both a runner and receiver.
Even with the NFL starting to de-value the RB position, Robinson is locked in as a first-round selection in this year's draft. In fact, NFL Draft expert Daniel Jeremiah has Robinson ranked as the third-best overall prospect in this rookie class.
📉 Cons
Finding a weakness in Robinson's game is no easy feat. He is the most complete prospect in the 2023 draft class, and the only real negative is the lack of value NFL teams now place on the RB position as a whole.
If you really want to nitpick his game, Robinson has room to improve as a pass-protector, and he'll need to develop his ability to pick up free blitzers at the pro level. This is a common skill set that rookies lack expertise in, but it's something that Robinson should be able to develop with experience and coaching.
🚀 Fantasy Upside
The last two RBs who shared the kind of elite draft profile that Robinson has were Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley. Each of them broke the record for highest fantasy score by a rookie RB, Elliott with 309.4 points (in 0.5 PPR formats) in 2016 and Barkley with 340.3 points in 2018.
Robinson is already being drafted 13th overall on Underdog Fantasy as the No. 4 RB, so early best ball drafters are clearly aware of his massive fantasy upside. The only issue is that he carries quite a bit of risk at that ADP.
No one will argue that Robinson's ceiling is the top overall fantasy player in 2023 in the right landing spot. If a team like the Eagles, Falcons, Bengals, or Chargers were to draft Robinson, fantasy GMs will be jumping for joy.
However, it's possible that Robinson could end up in a worse landing spot, in which case his current best ball ADP would be overvalued by multiple rounds. Looking at some of the top teams favored to draft him, it's possible that Robinson could end up competing for touches with a RB like Alvin Kamara, D'Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, or Brian Robinson.
While his talent would shine through, a timeshare would make it nearly impossible for Robinson to pay off his current ADP. As a result, I'm underweight on the star RB prospect at his current Underdog ADP in the early-second round.
