Oh, the weather outside is frightful...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Sirius XM:
- Bad Weather In The Forecast. Don't overreact.
- The Walkthrough
- JMToWin's Week 15 DFS Tips
- Geoff's Bets: Browns, Broncos, CeeDee Lamb
- Matthew's Love Hate for Week 15
- Linda's Kickin' It: Top kicker plays
- It's 12/16. Take it away, Chris Allen
I hoped Geno Smith and the Seahawks could pull off the upset, but it'd be tough for any team to defend elite play design with the talent to execute. Christian McCaffrey's first-half volume broke a record, and George Kittle rumbled down the field with two touchdowns. But the bigger news happened on the Seattle side.
Tyler Lockett broke a bone in his hand, and his expected absence likely ends his fantasy season. The team is in dire straits after another divisional loss with little help on the way. We'll dig into the injury fallout next week, but we've got games tomorrow worth monitoring.
Roster decisions are hard enough when evaluating matchups. But it's December, and a cold or snowy day was bound to pop up sooner or later. I've written on weather effects in the past, and a couple of contests caught my eye.
☃️ Snow in Buffalo
The forecast in Orchard Park calls for snow starting today through Saturday night. We'll likely see the field at Highmark Stadium covered, and fear, uncertainty, and doubt will take over. But let's look at a similar situation from 2019.
Orchard Park has been upgraded to a Lake Effect Snow Warning, set to kick in Friday night & run through the weekend. A narrow but intense plume of accumulation could yield more than a foot of snow where squalls persist. Welcome to WNY, @MiamiDolphins#billsmafia
— Eric Snitil (@EricSnitilWx)
Dec 15, 2022
Heavy snow came into Kansas City ahead of the Chiefs' matchup against the Broncos. Light snow continued throughout the game. And yet, both offenses had a positive pass rate over expected, with over 500 passing yards in the game.
It was Patrick Mahomes against Drew Lock, so the results may skew the perception. But how the offenses interacted with each other should give us hope.
Josh Allen has averaged 9.3 rushing attempts per game over the last three weeks. Plus, Stefon Diggs is his only pass-catching option above a 20.0% target share or in the top 50 for Yards Per Route Run (YPRR).
On Miami's side, while Jaylen Waddle (fibula) works through his injury, Tyreek Hill is the only player with double-digit targets (23) over the team's two-game losing streak.
Breaking ties against an ancillary option (Dawson Knox) with a legitimate backup (Chigoziem Okonkwo) is a sound approach. But don't let the uncertainty, like the snow, bury your judgment about the core plays in this game.
🥶 Cold Day in Green Bay
I get that football players are built different, as the kids say, but I need a jacket just imagining being outside in Green Bay on Monday night. Temperatures will be in the single digits with the windchill (8 degrees at kickoff), and I found 13 games played between the 2001 and 2020 seasons with a temperature under 10 degrees. Few general takeaways:
- 69.2% of those contests hit the under for their game total
- Only 7 of the 26 passers topped 250 passing yards
Tyler Higbee has a "no sleeves" rule, even for as cold as it'll be in Green Bay on Monday night. Bobby Wagner concurs.
"No sleeves, man...
"The faster you make the play, the faster you get to the heaters."— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue)
Dec 15, 2022
However, before you swap out Christian Watson for Elijah Moore, Aaron Rodgers was two of those seven passers (2008 W14 and 2008 W16). Green Bay's neutral passing rate on the season (48.1%) didn't significantly drop (47.4% and 51.2%), and Rodgers had a higher deep-ball rate in both matches. While the future Hall of Famer may not be in our lineups, his pass-catchers are, and the low temps shouldn't land them on our bench.
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Today, Kendall Valenzuela is joined by Dwain McFarland, and special guest Matthew Berry to break down this week's matchups!
The Walkthrough is the most comprehensive matchups column in the fantasy space. Every Friday, Rotoworld's Pat Kerrane outlines all the critical fantasy football context for each and every game.
This week, the Titans can get back to basics.
They are facing a Chargers defense that is terrible against the run. Los Angeles ranks 26th in rushing success rate, 29th in EPA allowed per rush, and 30th in PFF's run defense grades. Mike Vrabel won't exactly be racking his brain to figure out this week's game plan. And Henry will be helped out by the fact the Chargers are not particularly good against the pass. They rank 15th in EPA allowed per dropback and 14th in dropback success rate.
Most notably, the Chargers do not have a pass rush. They rank just 28th in PFF's pass rush grades and 25th in quick pressure rate, so Tannehill should have more time to throw than usual. But this being the Titans, we know that a good day for Tannehill is more reason to be excited about Henry.
They should be able to reestablish their classic dynamic of a big-play running game with a low-volume but efficient play-action passing game. Derrick Henry hasn't been as impressive as he was at his game-breaking height, but he still is flashing big-play upside. Henry ranks RB7 in breakaway yards per game and RB1 in YPRR. He could easily shred this Chargers' defense.
You can bet against Henry having a big day against a horrible run defense in mid-December if you want, but I'm not going to.
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If she doesn't have the words, it's no big deal. She just says "bah-duh-wee."
This is my daughter — a month away from turning two. "Bah-duh-wee" could be a smoothie, a book, a toy, or any number of other things. She knows what she's asking for ("bah-duh-wee" — of course), but a decent chunk of her verbal communication gets lost in translation.
Recently, however, "bah-duh-wee" has been easier to discern. If she's asking for "bah-duh-wee," it usually means she's asking to listen to Jingle Bell Rock.
When the song ends: "More bah-duh-wee!" Again, and again, and again.
I like variety myself, but my daughter takes after my wife — who can happily listen to the same song ten times in a row; and this week, with the NFL "playing past hits" once again (yet another 'small slate that feels even smaller than it is'), I'll take a cue from the NFL, and my wife, and my daughter, and "play past hits" myself.
📒 Miles Sanders
Last week, we highlighted two spots in this space: the Bengals' passing attack, and Miles Sanders. When it came to Sanders, I noted that our competition was likely to be scared to pull the trigger on him — and sure enough, on a thin running back slate, in a spot that set up perfectly for him, he came in with low ownership and proved to be a major difference-maker on the weekend.
This week, he's taking on a Bears defense that has allowed the sixth most RB rushing yards and the second most RB rushing touchdowns. Once again, our competition will likely be scared to pull the trigger. Once again, we can take advantage.
📒 Bengals Passing Attack
We've highlighted the Bengals numerous times in this space throughout the season (with a ridiculous degree of success). This week, Burrow (and Chase, and possibly Higgins) are taking on an above-average but not-exactly-scary Tampa Bay defense.
With their Vegas-implied team total sitting at only 23.75, they are unlikely to get pushed into the mega-chalk territory; but on "a small slate that feels even smaller," they are clearly one of the only teams in play that could significantly exceed their implied team total and become a "had to have it" unit.
📒 Josh Palmer
The Chargers are likely to be extremely popular this week (in spite of ranking 22nd in offensive DVOA, having topped 25 points only three times this season, and taking on a Titans team that has only allowed the Jags, Bills, and Eagles to top 22 against them), in the biggest pass-funnel matchup in the NFL (no team has faced more opponent pass attempts per game than the run-tough Titans).
Most of the attention on this team is likely to flow to Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams, but while any of those guys can hit…well, Ekeler is taking on a defense that has allowed only four total running back touchdowns all season (best in the NFL; for context on how great they've been in this regard: 22 teams have allowed 10+ RB touchdowns), Allen hasn't gone for even 4x his Week 15 DraftKings salary in over two years, and Williams saw six targets last week — or the exact same number as Josh Palmer.
Passing volume is a given in this spot, which means there's an above-average chance that someone from the Chargers' offense posts a strong, price-considered fantasy score. Why not zig when others are zagging?
Or as my daughter might say: "Bah-duh-wee!"
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🐯 Limited practice for Bengals' wide receivers again. It all comes down to Friday.
🚿 The story behind the epic Belichick meme. I need a shower just looking at him.
🥇 Who is the RB1 in TB? Marcas & Dwain Break it down.
📉 A disappointing practice report correction. Patriots trending in the wrong direction.
🤔 Mutiny in the Steelers' offense. Maybe, Diontae has a point.
🥜 Dak Prescott with the bizarre pep talk. That's one way to do it.
😎 Mike McDaniel never ceases to amaze. Non-stop swag down in Miami.
🔑 Jets still missing a couple of key starters. At least Mike White is on track to play.
❓ New school vs. old school. These matchups would have been special.
In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his three best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM
💰 Cleveland Browns -2.5
The Browns are catching the Ravens at an opportune time. Baltimore has a short week to prepare because this game is on Saturday, and that means it’s likely another week with no Lamar Jackson (knee) for Baltimore. To make matters worse, Tyler Huntley has been in the concussion protocol early in the week, which has hampered his preparation.
The Ravens have clawed out wins against two inferior opponents over their last two games but will face a huge upgrade in competition at quarterback with Deshaun Watson this week.
Watson was un-shockingly held down by the Bengals underrated secondary in Week 14 but showed some signs that the rust is coming off quickly by making a couple of absurd throws.
Baltimore has struggled against legitimate passing games this year and has the 11th-worst pressure rate in the league. The Browns are 3-1 ATS already this season, and, with the spread under the key number of 3.0, taking them to cover at home feels like a solid bet in Week 15.
💰 Panthers -2.5
The Panthers have been a column favorite over the second half of the season. They covered easily for us again last week, and in doing so did something no other team has done this year when they picked off Geno Smith twice in a game. The Panthers defense is for real, as they’ve averaged 3.0 sacks and allowed just 5.4 yards per attempt over their last three games.
With Kenny Pickett in the concussion protocol, the Steelers have decided to hold a tryout to decide their starting quarterback for this week, which feels like a good premise for a reality TV show but a bad idea for an NFL team trying to win a game in the middle of the season. The Steelers went 1-3 with Mitchell Trubisky as the starter this year, with a -20 point differential in those four games.
Meanwhile the Panthers have now covered in six of their last seven games and are 2-0 with Sam Darnold starting, posting a +19 point differential in the two games he’s started. Take the Panthers to cover this spread which feels like it has no business being below 3.0 given the state of these two teams.
💰 Week 15 Props and Totals:
- Las Vegas Raiders/New England Patriots Over 44.5 points -110
- Christian Kirk Over 58.5 Receiving Yards
❤️️ It's time for Love/Hate!
It’s #LOVEHATE day! Week 15 is now posted and as always, it’s 100% FREE. Thanks to @jordaneisner & @McDeeezy7 for sharing their stories.
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Dec 15, 2022
Picking kickers can be a pain, but relax, we have our resident kicking expert Linda to help you make the right choice...
If you’re reading this, you’re likely in your league’s playoffs or trying to avoid a last-place punishment. The good news is you’ve come to the right place. Before we jump into Week 15, let’s do just a quick recap of last week. Like the Katie Perry song, it was “Hot N Cold” last week. Greg Joseph was a letdown, finishing below the league median on the week. Michael Badgley had our backs, though, finishing with the third most points at the position in Week 14.
🦶 Cameron Dicker (Linda's Rank: K7)
“Dicker the Kicker” has been what streamer dreams are made of this season. He’s still rostered in just about 50% of Yahoo! leagues. Since Week 8, Cameron Dicker has finished at or above the league median every week except one. (That’s also the only week he didn’t attempt multiple field goals.)
The Chargers are 3-point favorites at BetMGM over the Titans and hold the 5th highest implied point total for the Week 15 slate.
🦶 Joey Slye (Linda's Rank: K9)
After finishing in a tie against the Giants in Week 13, the Commanders had their bye week and return to the field this week for another matchup with their division rivals. In four straight games, Joey Slye has attempted multiple field goals. That includes in Week 13 when he went 2-of-3 on FGs and made both PATs.
Slye is rostered in less than 10% of Yahoo! leagues and the Commanders are 4.5-point favorites according to BetMGM, setting Slye up for the perfect game script.
You can find my full Week 15 kicker rankings at FantasyLife.com.
