🎸 "Woah, We're Half Way There!"

Jon Bon Jovi didn’t want to put that song on a record because he originally didn’t think it was good. After some time, he changed his mind…

In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

We’re now halfway through the NFL’s 18-week regular season (minus Monday Night Football), and my bets against the spread to date have been… not good. Not quite disastrous — but not desirable. 

With that in mind, now feels like an excellent time to review my power ratings and look at the teams I’ve adjusted the most since the season started.

The teams that have fallen the furthest (Jets, Giants) have been plagued by QB injuries, so there’s not much to say about them other than, “It sucks to be them.”

But the two teams with the biggest positive moves deserve our attention.

• Texans (+3.5): -5.5 to -2

• Ravens (+2.5): +3 to +5.5

Let’s dive in.

🤠 Texans (+3.5): -5.5 to -2

The Texans opened the season as the No. 31 team in my power ratings, ahead of only the Cardinals. After producing back-to-back three-win campaigns, they had the league’s second-lowest win total (6.5) in the betting market this preseason — but they have drastically outperformed even the most optimistic of expectations.

With only eight games played, they’ve already surpassed their 3-13 and 3-14 records of the previous two years thanks to their 39-37 victory over the Buccaneers this past week, which gave them their fourth win of the season.

Rookie QB C.J. Stroud and HC DeMeco Ryans have been especially impressive.

In Week 9, Stroud had an all-time great performance with 470 yards and five TDs on 30-of-42 passing.

C.J. Stroud broke the single-game rookie passing yardage record (470), while recording the highest NGS passing score (96) by any QB in a game this season.

Stroud (20+ Air Yards)

🔹Today: 6/8, 199 yards, 3 TD
🔹2023: +21.5% CPOE (1st in NFL)

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— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats)
Nov 5, 2023

He even added 10 yards rushing on zero carries. You read that right: He’s doing the seemingly impossible.

As I’m typing this sentence (Sunday, 9:00 pm ET), Stroud is a massive favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year (-500, DraftKings). Ranking No. 2 with an 9.0 AY/A, he looks like a future superstar.

And Ryans looks like a strong Coach of the Year candidate. (I have a ticket on him at +2500 in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker).

I imagine that the Texans will move up my power ratings even more in the second half of the season as Stroud continues to progress.

🏆 Ravens (+2.5): +3 to +5.5

Last week, the Ravens were No. 1 with a +8.0 in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings at Unabated. I should’ve paid attention.

At 7-2, the Ravens are tied with the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and they have a league-high +115 point differential. They were merciless with 38-6 and 37-3 home wins over the Lions and Seahawks in Weeks 7 & 9. 

QB Lamar Jackson is No. 3 in the MVP market (+475, DraftKings), HC John Harbaugh is one of the league’s best CEO-style coaches, and the defense is No. 2 in expected points added (-0.183) and success rate (38.9%).

The Ravens are very good

The Cowboys lost but are still good

CJ Stroud!

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin)
Nov 6, 2023

They’re now No. 2 in my power ratings and a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Kevin Cole is the proprietor of Unexpected Points (a sports analytics newsletter), and each week he reviews every game and provides his “adjusted scores” based on the underlying production data. Here are two excerpts from his advanced game reviews for Week 9.

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special teams, penalties, fumble luck, etc.).

📊 Adjusted Scores Table

• “Pass”: Pass rate over expectation (based on the context of each play and historical averages)

• “Success”: Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs. actual score

• “H & A”: Home or away team

🤏 Chiefs vs. Dolphins (in Germany)

• Final Score: 21-14

• Adjusted Score: 12-19

In what was billed as a potential shootout between two of the more explosive offenses in the NFL, we ended up seeing more of a defensive battle. Each offense took off one half and didn’t score, the Dolphins in the first and the Chiefs in the second.

The fact that the Dolphins had any chance at all late in the game was improbable, after a 59-yard scoop lateral and score by the Chiefs defense pushed the lead to 21-0 in the late second quarter (21-0, 96% win probability).

After two straight touchdowns in the third quarter by the Dolphins, the Chiefs’ win probability was down to 82%, but the Dolphins failed to score on their last two drives, with the game ending on a Dolphins fumbled shotgun snap on 4th & 10 on the KC 31-yard line. Tyreek Hill’s fumble-6 was the most costly play of the game, with an impact nearly three times as big as any other play.

Neither QB had an impressive performance in this game, as both had a flat EPA without making many negative mistakes. Both offenses were simply stuck in the mud for long stretches, couldn’t sustain drives (combined 6-of-23 on third and fourth downs) and lacked explosive plays (one play over 25 yards gained).

Patrick Mahomes continues to lack a meaningful downfield weapon, registering a 5.6-yard aDOT and only completing one pass of more than 20 air yards. Mahomes has pivoted to spreading the ball around, with eight Chiefs receivers having two or more catches, but none with more than three.

🦅 Eagles vs. Cowboys

• Final Score: 28-23

• Adjusted Score: 23-23

This matchup lived up to the hype, at least for the respective offenses. The scoreboard showed a five-point win for the Eagles, with the adjusted scores dead even.

The offenses both registered good success rates — within 0.5% of each other — and also boosted efficiency with a number of big plays and key conversions. The Cowboys added 6.4 expected points on third and fourth downs, with the Eagles at +5.4 EPA. Neither team turned the ball over, outside of a last-second attempt to score by CeeDee Lamb.

The two biggest negative plays of the game for either team were fourth-down failures for the Cowboys, on 4th & 1 on the Eagles 1-yard-line (-3.9 EPA) and 4th & 8 on the Philly 29 with 1:22 remaining (-2.4 EPA).

Neither quarterback turned the ball over, but both were under pressure and took negatives in the form of sacks. Jalen Hurts was more efficient than Dak Prescott on a per-play basis (+0.44 EPA to +0.30), but the latter was asked to do a lot more (58 plays to 39) with the Cowboys unable to get anything going on the ground.

Prescott and Hurts now stand at 5th and 6th in EPA per play on the season, trailing only Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Tua Tagovailoa.

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Thanks to BetMGM, this Monday night can be even more epic! In fact, read on to see how our team is betting on the Chargers vs. Jets game…

🏀 Jazz +4.0 (-110, DK)

The Jazz travel to Chicago on Monday to take on the Bulls, who are listed as 4-point favorites, with a 223.5-point total.

Both of these squads have struggled this season, but the Jazz have been better in terms of Net Rating.

The Bulls are 0-4 ATS as favorites this season, while the Jazz have two wins as underdogs. They’re now 36-17-1 ATS as underdogs since the start of the 2022-23 season, so I’m locking in Utah here.

Finding early betting value — and grabbing as much closing line value (CLV) as possible — is one of the easiest ways to become a better bettor.

Matt LaMarca dives into a few bets to consider attacking early in the week.

🤠 Cowboys (-14.5) vs. Giants

• Current Line: Cowboys -14.5 (-110, FanDuel)

• Opening Line: Cowboys -10.0

• Target Range: Cowboys -16.5 or better

It’s officially tanking SZN in New York. I don’t think they’re actually going to try to lose games; they just don’t have the talent to compete on a weekly basis. Such is life when you’re down to your third-string quarterback.

Tyrod Taylor was placed on Injured Reserve earlier this week, but that didn’t seem like a huge deal at the time. After all, Daniel Jones is the team’s starter, and he was set to return vs. the Raiders.

Unfortunately, Jones went down with what is believed to be a serious knee injury in his first game back. That leaves Tommy DeVito as the last man standing.

DeVito wasn’t terrible in relief duty vs. the Raiders, completing 75% of his passes for 175 and a touchdown. However, he added two interceptions, and the team managed just six points against one of the worst defenses in football. DeVito was absolutely horrible after Taylor got injured vs. the Jets two weeks ago, averaging -0.14 adjusted yards per attempt.

Playing behind arguably the worst offensive line in football, DeVito simply has no chance to succeed vs. the Cowboys’ monster pass rush. New York would’ve struggled to score with anyone at quarterback, but the issues are going to be magnified even further now.

Undrafted rookie quarterbacks are not supposed to start at the NFL level, so this could get pretty ugly. This line is already up to -16.0 at some locations, so this number is only going up.

The Cowboys are coming off a disappointing performance vs. the Eagles, so expect them to be fully focused for their division rivals. Dak Prescott is also historically 21-14-1 ATS following a loss, and he’s 25-11 ATS in NFC East showdowns. I’m locking this in at 14.5 and watching the CLV flow.

🦁 Lions (-112) at Chargers

• Current Line: Lions -112, FanDuel

• Opening Line: Lions +136

• Target Range: Lions -120 or better

This line was listed as Lions +3.0 when it first came out but has steadily moved in the Lions’ favor. They’ve been an outstanding team for most of the season, while the Chargers have looked like the Chargers. They’ve dealt with injuries, they’re poorly coached, and they’re just 3-4 heading into a Monday Night Football showdown with the Jets.

I have the Lions as the better team in my power ratings, and they’ll benefit from a massive rest advantage in Week 10. Not only are the Lions coming off a bye, but the Chargers are playing on a short week. Making matters worse, they have to travel across the country after playing in New York, so it’s about as brutal of a spot as possible for LA.

Historically, favorites coming off a bye have gone 193-165-12 ATS since 2005. Dan Campbell is also 3-1 ATS with additional time to prepare for his career, so I expect to see the best from Detroit following their week off. I’m happy to play the Lions anything better than -120 on the moneyline or -2.0 on the spread.

If the Chargers lose to the Jets, the Lions could easily become larger favorites on Tuesday.

🏆 Updated NFL MVP odds: There’s a new frontrunner in the market.

🤮 Arthur Smith: This guy… doesn’t know… what he’s doing…

💪 Joshua Dobbs is a LEGEND! You don’t need to know a dude’s name to throw him a ball.

🤔 This might be the most intriguing C.J. Stroud take of them all. Ohio State vs. Michigan…

💍 An entire prop sheet for a wedding? Lots of value in the drink-spilling market.

🦶 Kickers are people, too… but RBs are actually people.

👀 A modern-day David vs. Goliath. You’d be surprised who’s dominating the betting market this season.

⚜️ Good teams win, great teams cover: The Saints — verifiably not great.

🔜 Kyler Murray can’t return soon enough. ”Incompetence” is too kind a word.

☠️ When you leave a party early and hear the next day about everything awesome that happened after you left. No Josh McDaniels, no problem.

🌩️ The apocalypse continues. Another QB suffers a season-ending injury.

💰 Looking for more Monday Night Football bets? We’ve got you covered.

You can access everything you need for Bills vs. Bengals in our Game Hub, including projection guidance, bets, and more. Looking for a peek behind the curtain? We’ve got you covered.

Monday Night Football features two playoff fringe teams, the Chargers and Jets. Can the Jets keep their three-game winning streak rolling, or will the Chargers show some teeth? Geoff Ulrich is here to break it down and highlight some of his favorite bets for the game…

✈️ Best Bet: Jets +3.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Now that we are past the key number of +3.0, it really is hard not to like the Jets, who look like they are once again being potentially undervalued by the market. 

The Chargers being without Joshua Palmer is a significant downgrade to their offense, as they will be relying on players four through six on their WR depth chart to make an impact. Throw in the Chargers’ defensive issues (27th in defensive DVOA), and you have a tough spot for a team traveling west coast to east coast in primetime.

💰 Top Prop: Austin Ekeler Over 4.5 receptions (+116, FanDuel)

Ekeler is going to be a pivotal part of the Chargers offense this week with Palmer out. The Jets’ one flaw on defense may be that they don’t mind allowing dump-offs to opposing RBs (sixth most receptions allowed to opposing RBs), and Ekeler is arguably the best receiving RB in football. 

We have this projected close (around 4.4 receptions), and given the context (Palmer out, Jets funnel to the middle defense), an over is warranted at the current odds.

📈 Climb the Ladder: Breece Hall (DraftKings)

• 25+ ReYds (+150)

• 40+ ReYds (+380)

• 50+ ReYds (+600)

Hall has been seeing a ton more field since the Jets took off his snap count back in Week 4. He’s played on over 65% of the snaps in each of the last two games, and his target share has risen in four straight games (24% last week, season-high nine targets). 

The Chargers are 10th in yards per rush attempt against but have also allowed the fifth most receiving yards to opposing RBs.

Hall makes for a great ladder candidate here in a game that should be close and could feature the Jets in lots of hurry-up situations.

🧑‍🍳 Same-Game Parlay (+950; BetMGM)

• Jets ML

• Zach Wilson Over 1.5 passing TDs

• Breece Hall 25+ receiving yards

• Austin Ekeler 4+ receptions

I think this is a winnable game for New York and a spot where we finally see a little momentum come from their passing game – which is up against a Chargers defense that has allowed three or more passing TDs three times already this season. 

A big day for Wilson (two or more passing TDs) correlates well with a Jets win, as does a big day for Ekeler as a receiver – who would be running a lot of late-game routes in that scenario. 

Throwing in a portion of our favorite ladder play (Hall 25+ receiving yards) also gives this Jets passing-based parlay a solid boost.