2025 NFL Mock Draft: Pre-Combine Updates In The First Round

The NFL combine is almost here, which means that MOCK DRAFT SZN is about to kick into another gear. With that in mind, I think this is a great time to update my 2025 NFL mock draft.

In case you're the kind of degenerate who wants to see how my thoughts on players, team needs, and picks have evolved throughout the draft process, all of my previous mock drafts can be found on my author page.

Over the past six years (since I started submitting mocks in competitions), I’m the No. 2 mocker for accuracy, and I'm a lifetime 484-424 (+102.6 units) betting on the draft.

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I plan to do more draft content moving forward—the Saturday edition of the Fantasy Life Newsletter will be dedicated to the draft from here on out—so be sure to check out our Fantasy Life NFL Draft Hub, where you can see my NFL prospect big board as well as Thor Nystrom's most recent mock and his excellent prospect profiles.

Pick By Pick 2025 NFL Mock Draft - First Round

Now that the 2025 NFL draft order is fully set, here's my pre-combine mock, followed by notes.

2025 Mock Draft Methodology

In every mock draft, I have a specific process I follow. A mathematical-ish order of operations, if you will.

• First, identify the 32 players I think are most likely to go in Round 1.
• Second, match teams with positions of need.
• Third, order players correctly within their position groups.
• Fourth, attempt to mock as many players as possible within their likely draft ranges.

I'm yet to have the perfect mock, but this process usually enables me to hit the ball with distance down the middle of the fairway.

"Must Include" Players in Round 1

Right now, there are 22 players I think have around an 80% chance (or better) to go in Round 1 (unless something drastically changes in their evaluation between now and the draft).

• QB: Cameron Ward (Miami), Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)
• RB: Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)
• WR: Travis Hunter (Colorado), Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona), Luther Burden (Missouri), Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State)
• TE: Tyler Warren (Penn State), Colston Loveland (Michigan)
• OT: Will Campbell (LSU), Kelvin Banks (Texas)
• OG: Tyler Booker (Alabama)
• EDGE: Abdul Carter (Penn State), Mykel Williams (Georgia), Jalon Walker (Georgia), James Pearce (Tennessee), Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M, Mike Green (Marshall)
• DT: Mason Graham (Michigan), Kenneth Grant (Michigan)
• CB: Will Johnson (LSU)
• S: Malaki Starks (Georgia)

After them, I have another eight players with at least a 60% chance of getting in Round 1.

• OT: Armand Membou (Missouri), Josh Simmons (Ohio State), Josh Conerly (Oregon)
• EDGE: Nic Scourton (Texas A&M)
• DT: Walter Nolen (Mississippi), Derrick Harmon (Oregon)
• LB: Jihaad Campbell (Alabama)
• CB: Jahdae Barron (Texas)

And then I have five more guys right on the borderline of Rounds 1-2.

• WR: Matthew Golden (Texas)
• CB: Shavon Revel (East Carolina), Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame), Azareye'h Thomas (Florida State)
• S: Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina)

In this iteration, I ultimately settled on Revel and Emmanwori as the final two prospects to include in Round 1, primarily because of positional demands: Based on team needs, I think the most reasonable mock calls for three corners and two safeties.

Borderline Round 1 NFL Mock Draft Prospects

These are the guys I didn't include in my mock but whom I currently view as residing near the borderline of Rounds 1-2.

• QB: Jaxson Dart (Mississippi)
• RB: Kaleb Johnson (Iowa)
• WR: Matthew Golden (Texas)
• OT: Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota), Jonah Savaiinaea (Arizona), Grey Zabel (North Dakota State)
• OG: Donovan Jackson (Ohio State)
• EDGE: J.T. Tuimoloau (Ohio State), Jack Sawyer (Ohio State)
• DT: Tyleik Williams (Ohio State), Shemar Turner (Texas A&M), Alfred Collins (Texas)
• CB: Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame), Azareye'h Thomas (Florida State)

Top Five Picks in my 2025 NFL Mock Draft

1.01: Titans - EDGE Abdul Carter (Penn State)

I have a position logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker for Abdul to go No. 1 (+220, FanDuel).

Titans President of Football Operations Chad Brinker has said that the team "won't pass up on a generational talent" at No. 1. While the team needs a passer, QBs Cameron Ward and Shedeur Sanders are not once-a-decade prospects.

Given his age (21 years old), pedigree (unanimous All-American), and production (12 sacks and a nation-leading 24 tackles for loss as a junior), Carter might be the rare defensive player who deserves to go No. 1.

1.02: Browns - WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado)

I have Hunter as the No. 1 player on my top 50 big board. In terms of all-around skill set, he's the most talented prospect in this class.

The prevailing sentiment among draft analysts is that Hunter in the NFL will be a full-time perimeter corner who rotates as a situational receiver. 

Maybe … but Hunter is too good (in my opinion) not to be used heavily on offense, given that last year he won the Fred Biletnikoff Award as the most outstanding receiver in college football with 96-1,258-15 receiving.

Of course, he's also a total stud on the other side of the ball: Last year, he won the Chuck Bednarik Award as the defensive player of the year.

If any guy can step into the NFL and right away play significant snaps on both offense and defense, it's Hunter—and the Browns need help all over the roster.

1.03: Giants - QB Cam Ward (Miami)

Ward is the frontrunner to go No. 1 (-140, FanDuel), and I personally have him ranked as the No. 1 QB in the class.

Last year he won the Davey O'Brien Award as the nation's best QB with 4,313 yards and 39 TDs passing to just seven INTs with 60-204-4 rushing (including sacks).

I expect him to be a Week 1 starter in the NFL.

Thor's Prospect Profile: Cam Ward

1.04: Patriots - WR Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona)

The Pats could go in a lot of directions at No. 4. 

If Abdul Carter happens to be available, I imagine new HC Mike Vrabel would love to have him as a foundational piece for his defense.

If the Pats decide to do all they can to protect second-year QB Drake Maye, they could select an OT.

But I keep thinking that the Pats should get a pass-catching weapon for Maye, who had little receiving assistance last season as a rookie.

In some scenarios—if two of the top three teams in the draft select QBs—Hunter could fall to the Pats at No. 4, but if he happens to be gone then the team could still opt to take McMillan, who might end up being the superior NFL pass catcher.

With 90-1,402-10 receiving as a sophomore and 84-1,319-8 as a junior, McMillan has legitimate top-eight talent in this class, so it's not much of a reach for him to go in the top five.

1.05: Jaguars - CB Will Johnson (Michigan)

The vast supermajority of mocks I've perused have Johson as the No. 1 CB, and while the Jags have needs all over the roster they arguably have the biggest need in the secondary.

Blessed with elite size (6-2, 202 lbs.) and pedigree (five recruitment stars), Johnson will have a great chance to go in the top 10 as long as he checks the boxes with his athletic testing at the combine.