As part of Fantasy Life's year-long NFL Draft coverage, I'll be heading to Mobile next week to cover the Senior Bowl — filing reports, updates, and interviewing players. This is the first of three preview pieces I'll be writing ahead of the game.

Here's my latest NFL Mock Draft and here's my colleague Matthew Freedman's latest mock. There's a lot of love for Jalen Milroe in our projections, so next week will be particularly interesting, as he has the most to gain (see below) in Mobile. 

2024 Senior Bowl Quarterback Preview

There will be eight quarterbacks at the game:

  • Jaxson Dart (Mississippi)
  • Dillon Gabriel (Oregon)
  • Will Howard (Ohio State)
  • Riley Leonard (Notre Dame)
  • Jalen Milroe (Alabama)
  • Tyler Shough (Louisville)
  • Seth Hennigan (Memphis)
  • Taylor Elgersma (Wilfrid Laurier)

News: Senior Bowl Executive DIrector Jim Nagy said Texas QB Quinn Ewers originally had committed to play in the game. But according to Nagy, Ewers informed the Senior Bowl he was pulling out of the event following the Longhorns’ CFP semifinal loss to Ohio State with an undisclosed injury. Ewers missed time earlier this season with an oblique injury.

Pre-Senior Bowl NFL Draft Rankings:

  1. Jalen Milroe (Alabama)
  2. Jaxson Dart (Mississippi)
  3. Will Howard (Ohio State)
  4. Riley Leonard (Notre Dame)
  5. Dillon Gabriel (Oregon)
  6. Tyler Shough (Louisville)
  7. Taylor Elgersma (Wilfrid Laurier)
  8. Seth Hennigan (Memphis)

Most to Prove: Jaxson Dart (Mississippi)

Dart, a former five-star recruit, posted bazooka stats in college. That included an 81/27 career TD/INT rate and nearly 12,000 passing yards over four seasons. Dart has adequate size at 6’2/220, and he’s got an above-average NFL arm. He’s also a tough runner with decent athleticism. 

The arm has talent. Dart throws from multiple arm angles, and I like how his catalogue of throws runs the gamut from the pillowy touch throws to the heat-ring tight-window muscle balls. Gets the ball out quickly with a smooth release.

This is a guy with the pedigree, the statistical profile, and the physical toolset of a top-40 pick. It’s just… why can’t I stop seeing Sam Howell when I watch him? At UNC, Howell piled up incredible stats in a gimmicky pre-snap-read offense. Often, when Howell’s first read wasn’t there, he was instructed to tuck-and-run.

Watch Dart’s film and it’s the pointing Spider-man meme to Howell at UNC. Post-snap, Dart’s eyes are affixed to his primary pre-snap read. If it isn’t there, and he has time – Dart’s running at signs of danger – he’ll snap his head to the backup read. If that’s not there, he’s tucking-and-running almost every time. So rarely did I see Dart hang in the pocket going to a third read, or attempting to buy time to allow his receivers to freelance.

Lane Kiffin’s system is ingenious. It’s designed to simplify processing for the quarterback – instead of having infinite options available to him during a play, the concept has cut the options to three. That’s problematic for Dart’s eval. Nobody has any earthly idea whether Jaxson Dart can read defenses in a traditional offense. 

We also don’t know if Dart can develop into an anticipatory passer who throws his receivers open. At present, Dart wants – or has been coached? – to confirm his primary or secondary reads are open before throwing. Dart absolutely has the arm to test windows, and does – but it has been drilled into him not to put the ball in harm's way, a good inclination that at times causes him to be a beat late. 

Lastly, decision-making under duress is something I’m curious about. Dart’s PFF grades under pressure were always good. But, over the ocean of data, Dart’s pressures were not analogous to some of the other top throwers in this class. That’s because Dart’s options were pared down for him in advance.

In a wide-open quarterback class behind Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders, Dart could rise as high as QB3, and potentially hear his name called in the top-40. He could also have a process very much like Howell’s, where his game is picked apart and the blackbox aspect of his evaluation is discussed more than his strengths. 

Howell ended up falling to pick 5.144. The Senior Bowl is Dart’s chance to show scouts that his decision-making is perhaps more progressed than his tape was allowed to show.

Most to Gain: Jalen Milroe (Alabama)

Raw as a passer, Milroe could have used another year in school. But he’s got A+ physical tools, and he was successful at college football’s highest level, topping 2,800 passing/800 rushing/12 rushing TDs each of the past two seasons.

You can think of Milroe as the Anthony Richardson of this class – a lethal running threat with a huge arm, but desperately in need of further development.

Milroe (6'2/225) is a little smaller than Richardson. But he’s more experienced coming out of the SEC than Richardson was (663 collegiate attempts to 393), he’s more accurate (64.3% to 54.7%), and he’s more advanced as a passer (45/20 career TD/INT rate to 24/15). Milroe is analogous to Richardson as a runner—he averaged 55.8 rushing YPG this season against Richardson’s 54.5 his last season at Florida.

Milroe has one of the largest band-of-outcomes of any prospect in this year’s class. An enormous pre-draft process – ála Richardson – could catapult Milroe into the top-10. A mediocre pre-draft process could drop him all the way to the middle rounds. Milroe is a prospect you dream on – he needs to give evaluators something to dream on in Mobile, and I’m betting he will.

Mystery Man: Taylor Elgersma (Wilfrid Laurier)

On Thursday, the Senior Bowl announced the accepted invite of Elgersma – making him the first Canadian university quarterback to ever participate in the Senior Bowl. Elgersma joins fellow Canadian Stanford WR Elic Ayomanor on this year's roster, marking the sixth-straight year that the Senior Bowl has had at least one player from Canada.

Elgersma (6’5/215) drew rave reviews recently at the College Gridiron Showcase, prompting the call-up. The 22-year-old won the Hec Crighton Trophy – Canada’s Heisman – last season. Interestingly, Elgersma also has recent experience around pro football, having participated in CFL training camps the last three years thanks to the CFL's quarterback internship program.

Elgersma has an NFL frame… and a big-league arm. It is that arm that prompted Nagy to make the historic call-up. I have very little exposure to Elgersma’s game at this time – but I did rip through his YouTube highlight reels before this column went to publication. The velocity Elgersma generates on his throws is legitimate and pro-caliber. 

The vibe you get from Elgersma’s Canadian highlights is a borderline arrogance testing tight windows – he’s got a gun, and he knows it. Against the speed of high-end NFL Draft defensive back prospects in Mobile, will Elgersma’s fastball carry the day, or will he be myth-busted like Sidd Finch? The answer to that question will decide whether Elgersma’s name is called in April’s NFL Draft. If not, he’ll be a first-rounder in the CFL Draft held in the weeks after.

Three more QBs to watch

Dillon Gabriel (Oregon)

The reigning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, a 2024 Heisman Trophy finalist, and one of the most prolific passers in FBS history (No. 2 all-time passing yardage behind Houston’s Case Keenum). Gabriel, a pint-sized lefty, is experienced and comfortable in the pocket. He bounces around naturally to manipulate spacing and find a freer runway to throw. 

Gabriel is a timing passer who’ll run your scheme for you. He throws a nice, soft, catchable ball. Gabriel is listed at 6-foot, 200 pounds – but is likely smaller than that. He’s physically limited, lacking arm strength. With windows getting smaller at the next level, it’s an open-ended question as to whether Gabriel will have the velocity to beat NFL defenders.

To be fair, he was better deep in college than you’d expect. Gabriel identifies coverage looks quickly and lets it rip with loft early, right when he deciphers 1-on-1 coverage. His receivers generally had the talent advantage against the defender in college. With that negated in the NFL, and defenders possessing better recovery speed, it’s fair to wonder how cleanly that aspect of Gabriel’s game will translate. 

Gabriel will turn 25 as a rookie – he’s old for a prospect and maxed-out. He profiles as a potential backup in a West Coast-type system. My comp is “poor man’s Tua” – perhaps the Dolphins will be interested in adding another undersized Hawaiian lefty to the quarterback room.

Will Howard (Ohio State)

Howard was one of the biggest risers from the College Football Playoff, leading Ohio State to the national championship. Howard’s play over the four-game title run has put him in contention to be QB4 in the 2025 NFL Draft. With short turnaround time from the title game, Howard faces a crucial Senior Bowl week as he looks to climb further up the board.

Howard is a solid athlete in a big, strapping package. The 6-foot-4, 237-pounder is a tough runner who lowers the shoulder. We got to see more of that physicality when he was at Kansas State. This past season Howard proved he could direct an NFL-style passing attack at Ohio State.

Howard has arm talent, throwing a tight spiral with NFL-caliber velocity. Howard is a risky prospect, though, because he has messy mechanics for a guy who’ll be 24 as a rookie. Howard’s accuracy tends to vacillate the further he goes down the field because of a sloppy lower-half that isn’t always set as he throws. 

That said, Howard’s improvements as a thrower on college football’s biggest stage is not going to go unnoticed by evaluators. The Senior Bowl is a golden opportunity for Howard to make the argument to scouts that there is more improvement to come.

Riley Leonard (Notre Dame)

Leonard lost to Howard in the national title game and will now link up with him in Mobile. A 6-foot-4, 216-pounder, Leonard is a tough and effective runner. The former Duke quarterback has some Discount Danny Dimes to his game. Leonard is an effective thrower short and intermediate, adding and subtracting velocity and throwing with touch when called for.

But Leonard lacks arm strength, which is going to make him easier to defend at the next level. He had scant success in college 20-plus yards down the field over the middle – he simply doesn’t have the arm strength to test those waters. Leonard has had sporadic success with less-risky downfield shots, the 1-on-1 opportunities towards the sidelines. This area of his game is not likely to improve. 

What Leonard needs to work on his lower-body mechanics. For a guy as experienced as Leonard is, it’s surprising to sometimes see hitchy footwork not matching the timing of the concept. Leonard additionally does not always take care to set up his throwing platform before pulling the trigger, sloppiness that in part explains his accuracy issues.

Mobile provides an opportunity for Leonard to show evaluators that this area is a work-in-progress that can be improved upon. Not only would a successful argument help assuage some of the long-term accuracy concerns, but it could also cause certain evaluators to give him the benefit-of-the-doubt for his poor metrics while under duress, the times when his mechanics are most haphazard.