We're just a few weeks away from the NFL Draft, which means it is peak rumor mill season as teams finalize their draft boards. It's very difficult to tell the difference between legitimate sources, smokescreens, and straight-up fake news. 

I don't have the connections to tell you who is going to be drafted by which team, although Cam Ward to the Titans seems like close to a lock. What I can do is provide a reminder that the rumors and predictions you hear before and after the NFL Draft should be taken lightly. It's tempting to jump to conclusions or think we have things all figured out, but a quick trip down memory lane shows why that is rarely the case.

Here is a collection of my favorite pre-draft rumors from the last 15 years:

Biggest NFL Draft Rumors of the Last 15 Years

2024 - Cowboys will draft Jonathon Brooks because of Dr. Dan Cooper

This rumor was more popular in fantasy football circles than the broader NFL community, but who could forget the speculation that the Cowboys were going to take Jonathon Brooks because their team doctor, Dr. Dan Cooper, did the ACL surgery for Brooks. It was also a position of need for Dallas, so it seemed like an obvious fit. Brooks also played his college ball at the University of Texas, so the stars seemed to be aligning.

In hindsight, it was just as likely that the Cowboys would be turned off from drafting Brooks because of the additional insight they had. This was peak wishcasting for fantasy managers who hoped to see the most exciting RB prospect in the 2024 class in a great landing spot.

Dallas didn't end up selecting an RB in the draft last year and went with the duo of Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott in their backfield. Just because something would be fun for fantasy and makes sense on paper doesn't make it a lock to happen on draft day.

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2022 - Malik Willis will be the second overall pick

The 2022 QB class has turned out to be one of the worst in recent memory, but at the time, there was plenty of hype for some of the signal callers, especially Malik Willis. Multiple analysts had Willis going to the Lions second overall in mock drafts, while others reported it was a serious consideration for the team.

Naturally, the best quarterback in the 2022 draft was taken with the very last pick when the 49ers selected Brock Purdy. There are some parallels to be drawn with 2025 and the relatively weak QB class we have this year. For what it's worth, I think this year's group is better than 2022, and I don't expect Shedeur Sanders to fall the same way Willis did, but it's important to remember that NFL teams are willing to pass on the QB position if they don't like the prospects.

2021 - 49ers traded up for Mac Jones

This was one of the most exciting months of speculation after the 49ers traded up to third overall. Everyone knew it was for a QB, but the question was which one. Justin Fields had his supporters, but it seemed to be a two-horse race between Mac Jones and Trey Lance.

In the weeks leading up to the draft, rumors emerged that Mac Jones was Kyle Shanahan's guy. Given that the 49ers just signed Jones this offseason, I think those rumors were probably true, but Shanahan wasn't the final decision-maker.

San Francisco ended up going with Lance, and it's safe to say that didn't work out as Lance started just four games for them before being traded to the Cowboys. In the years since, this has emerged as a prime example of front office vs coaching staff sending mixed signals. 

2021 - The Bengals have to take Penei Sewell

I might be stretching the definition of rumor here—this was more of a legitimate debate between blue chip prospects, but there was a large contingent of fans and analysts who were convinced the Bengals needed to draft Penei Sewell if he was on the board when they were up with the fifth selection. It even spawned an elite meme.

 

The Bengals ended up taking Ja'Marr Chase, who is now arguably one of the top two receivers in the league. Of course, Sewell is a very good player in his own right, so either decision would have looked fine in hindsight. The lesson here is for fan bases to not get too attached to a particular idea to the point that they can't appreciate their team selecting a great player.

2020 - Dolphins are very interested in Jordan Love

The 2020 QB class was an exciting one with Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jordan Love all going in the first round.

After the draft, all the talk was about the Packers selecting Love despite having Aaron Rodgers on the roster. That made it easy to forget that one of the persistent pre-draft rumors was that the Dolphins really liked Jordan Love.

Miami had two first-round picks and was nearly guaranteed to take a QB with one of them. It was a reasonably popular opinion that they should take a different position with the fifth overall selection and take a QB later in the first round. They ended up taking Tua Tagovailoa fifth overall, which sure makes those Love rumors look like a smokescreen to hide their true intentions.

2018 - Lamar Jackson not viewed as a QB

In my opinion, this is the worst on this list. Yes, there were real people in NFL circles who believed Lamar Jackson was a better prospect at WR than at QB. There was also speculation that multiple teams asked him to work out as a WR. It turns out it was just one: the Los Angeles Chargers. 

That was still one too many and may be one of the worst opinions in the NFL this century, as Jackson has gone on to win two MVP awards and led the NFL in passing TDs in 2019. Jackson is one of the top QBs in the game and is set for another blockbuster contract extension soon.

The NFL is always evolving, so it's important not to have the mindset that certain types of players will or won't work. Be open-minded to players who can revolutionize the way the game is played.

2017 - The Chiefs will take a linebacker

Kansas City had a very competitive roster heading into the 2017 NFL Draft. They had won the AFC West the season before and were considered close to being a Super Bowl contender if they added one or two pieces, particularly on the defensive side. One of the most popular mock draft picks heading into draft day was the Chiefs taking a linebacker, with Haason Reddick the most popular fit.

It was somewhat surprising when they chose to use the 10th overall pick on QB Patrick Mahomes, despite having Alex Smith on the roster already. Shortly after the draft, this was even called a worrisome pick.

This is a helpful reminder that even competitive NFL teams are not just thinking about the next season when making their selection. 

2016 - Laremy Tunsil a sure thing to be the first pick

This one belongs in its own category because this rumor probably would have been true if it wasn't for the video that leaked on draft night of Tunsil using a gas mask. The video caused him to fall all the way to 13th in the NFL Draft.

The lesson here is that things can change all the way up to the point the NFL Draft begins. This particular incident may never be repeated, but we've seen other examples of last-minute issues popping up for first-round prospects. Nothing is final until the pick is submitted.

2014 - Johnny Manziel should be the #1 overall pick

I think this was probably the least serious rumor on this list, but it was amplified by at least one major sports celebrity, so it got some traction in the media.

Most mock drafts had Manziel as a later first-round or early second-round pick, but there was enough steam (or at least enough publicity) for Mel Kiper to have Manziel as the #1 overall pick in one of his mocks. That prediction may have been clickbait, but it was enough to get people talking, and plenty of people thought the former Heisman winner could be a franchise QB.

In reality, Johnny Football fell to 22nd overall in the draft and only lasted two seasons in the NFL. With issues both on and off the field, it never panned out for Manziel as he became another in a long line of disappointing QBs for the Cleveland Browns.

2011 - Blaine Gabbert over Cam Newton

Looking back, it's comical to compare Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert, but at the time, it was a real debate among analysts who was the better prospect. Todd McShay was a big fan of Gabbert and had him mocked as a top-three draft pick. In reality, Gabbert ended up going with the 11th pick and was the third QB selected, with Newton and Jake Locker drafted before him. 

Players like Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson are prime examples of why it is worth pushing the envelope or taking players that are perceived to have a wide range of outcomes.

The best way to become a Super Bowl-caliber team is to have a different maker at the QB position. The NFL has come a long way on this, and it doesn't always work out (looking at you, Trey Lance and Anthony Richardson). Unless they change how the NFL Draft works, I will always be in favor of teams taking big swings at the QB position because the goal should be to win Super Bowls, not to just sneak into the playoffs year after year.

2010 - Jimmy Clausen should be a top-five pick

Another Mel Kiper special, perhaps the one he is most famous for after declaring he would retire if Clausen wasn't a successful QB.

Of course, Clausen didn't end up being a first-round pick, and he started just 14 games in his NFL career.

This is not to pick on Kiper; his job isn't easy, but it goes to show that high-conviction predictions can still go terribly wrong.

It's important to be humble, particularly when your evaluation isn't in line with other analysts that you respect. Nobody has a perfect hit rate, so just because you see strong praise or criticism for a particular player, it's what they do on an NFL field that ultimately matters.