NFL Mock Draft: Shedeur Sanders Falls to Steelers, Tet McMillan to Cowboys

by Matthew Freedman

1 day ago

It's officially the week of the draft, so now feels like a good time to update my NFL mock draft and provide my penultimate iteration.

For all previous 20 versions, check out my Fantasy Life author page as well as our Fantasy Life NFL Draft Hub.

Also, every Saturday edition of the Fantasy Life Newsletter is now dedicated to the draft.

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2025 NFL Mock Draft

Here's my "week of" mock, followed by notes.

Pick	Team	Player	School	Position	Other Options
1	TEN	Cam Ward	Miami	QB	WR, EDGE
2	CLE	Travis Hunter	Colorado	WR	QB, EDGE
3	NYG	Abdul Carter	Penn State	EDGE	QB, WR
4	NE	Will Campbell	LSU	OT	EDGE, WR
5	JAX	Mason Graham	Michigan	DT	OT, CB
6	LV	Ashton Jeanty	Boise State	RB	CB, EDGE, DT
7	NYJ	Armand Membou	Missouri	OT	DT, TE
8	CAR	Jalon Walker	Georgia	EDGE	DT, WR
9	NO	Will Johnson	Michigan	CB	QB, TE
10	CHI	Tyler Warren	Penn State	TE	RB, EDGE, OT
11	SF	Mykel Williams	Georgia	EDGE	CB, OT, DT, EDGE
12	DAL	Tetairoa McMillan	Arizona	WR	RB, CB
13	MIA	Kelvin Banks	Texas	OT	CB, S
14	IND	Colston Loveland	Michigan	TE	OT, G
15	ATL	Shemar Stewart	Texas A&M	EDGE	S, DT, LB
16	ARI	Mike Green	Marshall	EDGE	DT, CB, OT
17	CIN	Derrick Harmon	Oregon	DT	EDGE, S
18	SEA	Grey Zabel	North Dakota State	OT	WR, G
19	TB	Jihaad Campbell	Alabama	LB	EDGE, S
20	DEN	Omarion Hampton	North Carolina	RB	WR
21	PIT	Shedeur Sanders	Colorado	QB	DT
22	LAC	Kenneth Grant	Michigan	DT	TE, WR
23	GB	Jahdae Barron	Texas	CB	EDGE, WR
24	MIN	Nick Emmanwori	South Carolina	S	CB
25	HOU	Tyler Booker	Alabama	G	OT, WR
26	LAR	Matthew Golden	Texas	WR	CB, QB
27	BAL	Malaki Starks	Georgia	S	EDGE, OT
28	DET	Donovan Ezeiruaku	Boston College	EDGE	OG, OT
29	WAS	James Pearce	Tennessee	EDGE	WR, RB
30	BUF	Maxwell Hairston	Kentucky	CB	S, DT, WR
31	KC	Josh Simmons	Ohio State	OT	DT
32	PHI	Walter Nolen	Mississippi	DT	EDGE, TE

2025 Mock Draft Methodology

Here's an outline of my general process for this mock.

Identify the 32 players most likely to go in Round 1.
Order players correctly within their position groups.
Match teams with positions of need.
Attempt to mock players within their likely draft ranges.

Accuracy, more than precision, is the priority.

"Must Include" Prospects in Round 1

Right now, there are 26 players who I think have around an 80% chance (or better) to go in Round 1 (unless something drastically changes in their evaluation between now and the draft).

QB: Cam Ward (Miami), Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)
RB: Ashton Jeanty (Boise State), Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)
WR: Travis Hunter (Colorado), Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona), Matthew Golden (Texas)
TE: Tyler Warren (Penn State), Colston Loveland (Michigan)
OT: Will Campbell (LSU), Armand Membou (Missouri), Kelvin Banks (Texas), Grey Zabel (North Dakota State)
EDGE: Abdul Carter (Penn State), Jalon Walker (Georgia), Mykel Williams (Georgia), Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M), Mike Green (Marshall)
DT: Mason Graham (Michigan), Derrick Harmon (Oregon), Kenneth Grant (Michigan)
LB: Jihaad Campbell (Alabama)
CB: Will Johnson (LSU), Jahdae Barron (Texas)
S: Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina), Malaki Starks (Georgia)

All of these guys I'm including in this mock.

"Want to Include" Prospects in Round 1

After the "must include" players, I have another seven players with at least a 60% chance of getting in Round 1.

OT: Josh Simmons (Ohio State), Josh Conerly (Oregon)
OG: Tyler Booker (Alabama)
DT: Walter Nolen (Mississippi)
EDGE: Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College), James Pearce (Tennessee)
CB: Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky)

Given that I can include only six of them, Conerly is the one I'm cutting: Nolen and Hairston I have slotted for Round 1, Booker is ahead of Simmons and Conerly (although it's close), and I think it's likelier we get seven EDGEs on Day 1 than seven OLs.

Borderline Prospects in Round 1

After the aforementioned players, I considered only eight more guys on the borderline of Rounds 1-2.

QB: Jaxson Dart (Mississippi), Jalen Milroe (Alabama)
RB: TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State)
WR: Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State), Luther Burden (Missouri)
OG: Donovan Jackson (Ohio State)
EDGE: Nic Scourton (Texas A&M)
CB: Trey Amos (Mississippi)

Of these eight, Dart and Egbuka are the two I think have the greatest chance of sneaking into Day 1.

NFL Mock Draft Analysis

In previous versions, I've provided much more in the way of analysis. Here, for the sake of expediency, I provide only cursory notes.

Picks 1-8: Chalk.
Pick 9: Saints need QB, but I doubt they take one this early. I need to slot CB Will Johnson somewhere in this range, and Saints also need CB.
Pick 10: TE Tyler Warren belongs in the top 10.
Pick 11: 49ers need to rebuild DL.
Pick 12: Cowboys seem locked into WR, and I still have Tetairoa McMillan ahead of Matthew Golden.
Pick 13: Dolphins have needs all over, but they really require a replacement for retired LT Terron Armstead.
Pick 14: Colts need TE, whether that's Warren or Colston Loveland.
Picks 15-17: DL all the way.
Pick 18: Seahawks going OL or WR, and I think OL is the bigger need.
Picks 19-20: Chalk.
Pick 21: Steelers stop the slide for QB Shedeur Sanders.
Pick 22: Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh gets a Michigan Man.
Picks 23-24: Secondary is a need for both the Packers and the Vikings.
Pick 25: OL is a massive need for Texans.
Pick 26: Rams get a perimeter speedster in Golden to complement WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
Pick 27: Ravens pair S Malaki Starks with All-Pro Kyle Hamilton.
Picks 28-29: Lions and Commanders get needed EDGE help.
Pick 30: Bills replace departed CB Rasul Douglas.
Pick 31: Chiefs attempt once again to get a blindside protector for QB Patrick Mahomes.

Pick 32: The Eagles do what they do.

Matthew Freedman