Chris Allen harks back to the 2020 NFL Draft class, which featured so many stars of today like Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, Justin Jefferson, Jonathan Taylor, and more.

I’ll always remember the 2020 NFL Draft.

Admittedly, I had a vested interest in the prospects. It wasn’t just because I was into content by that time. I mean, sure, I was entering my third season of trying to turn my part-time hobby into a legitimate side gig. My laptop was out, and I started forming a reaction piece after Day 1. But this draft was especially different because I knew what my team was going to do.

Joe Burrow had just completed the best season in college football history. Cincinnati had the 1.01. With a new coaching staff installed the prior year, a change in the AFC North felt inevitable. And the rest was (is?) history. However, as I look back on the class, we got more than just some star power from the early rounds.

The Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow

I had half a mind to revisit the Joe Burrow pre-draft profiles and “innocently” revisit the analysis. But I thought better of it. Nevertheless, I had some thoughts.

For the “he lacks arm strength” crowd, Burrow has ranked inside the Top 10 in EPA per dropback on throws of 20 air yards or more in every full season he’s played. The “takes too many sacks” contingent must also be disappointed. Burrow’s pressure-to-sack rate has dropped every season since 2021. And with a special shoutout to the “he’ll never recover from the wrist injury” group, Cincinnati’s 1.01 in 2020 just threw for more yards and accounted for more passing TDs than the top MVP candidates. 

  • No first-team All-Pro accolades.
  • No Super Bowl wins.
  • No playoff appearances in two years.

Trust me. Like Eminem at the end of 8 Mile, I know all the rebuttals. But, regardless of which side you’re on, seeing a QB change a franchise is always worth watching.

I’ve been a fan for over 20 (painful) years. I graduated from UC (a long time ago) and have been downtown many a night. Anyway, my wife and I were in Cincinnati the night before they played the Bills in the Divisional Round. Folks were out en masse. But the size of the crowds wasn’t what caught my eye. It was their clothing.

Before 2021, you’d see someone with an A.J. Green jersey here and there. Chad Johnson, Carson Palmer, and other Bengals legends also get their love at times. But it was a sea of orange and black that Saturday night. I saw “Joe Burrows” of all shapes and sizes. It’s one thing to become the face of a franchise. Changing the culture of a city is something different. That’s my quarterback.

Tua Tagovailoa

So, let me put on my “angry fantasy manager” hat first. 

(Bear with me, Dolphins fans. It gets better.)

Tua Tagovailoa has averaged no more than 17.8 PPG over the last three seasons. For context, Justin Fields (the bad version of), Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson hit similar marks this past year. Even worse, Miami’s QB hasn’t crested more than six top-12 finishes in a single campaign since taking over as the starter. You’d be better off streaming the position.

However, if you caught Tua on the right week, you’d likely come out on top.

Now, let’s look at the reality of Tagovailoa’s situation.

Tua’s problem is inherent to all pocket passers. Without a rushing component to his game, he needs outings with three-plus TDs to claw (flip? What do Dolphins do?) into the Top 12. But he’s had top-4 averages in EPA per dropback the past three consecutive seasons. He led the league in passing yards only two years ago. That sounds great, right? However, a QB9 finish (tied with Baker Mayfield—who was available on the waiver wire) sucks all the joy out of a legitimate accomplishment.

He's been a better real-life QB than a reliable option in fantasy. And that’s OK! We just need to separate the two when looking back on his time in the league when he decides to retire.

Justin Herbert

In Thor Ragnarok, Bruce Banner reveals to Valkyrie that he’s the Hulk, with whom she had spent time training on Sakaar.

Her reaction to the revelation was essentially all of us during Justin Herbert’s rookie year.

Because, like Valkyrie throughout parts of the movie, there were signs Herbert could be a menace to safeties. Or that corners would have to hug their WR in coverage to defend a pass. But the flashes got lost in the aggregate. Jake Luton (remember him?), Kedon Slovis, and Ian Book completed more deep passes and generated more yards on those throws in Herbert’s final year at Oregon. Herbert’s accuracy (76.1% adjusted completion percentage) was only marginally better than Kyle Trask’s (75.7%). But all it took was a few clutch performances for us to see there was more to his game than what his college tape offered.

The best part is he was still able to churn out a QB1 season with a revamped receiving corps. Ladd McConkey was as advertised, but if the Bolts wind up with a true WR1, move Herbert up the ranks.

Jordan Love

There’s no other place to start with Jordan Love than in the nosebleed seats … with his mother and girlfriend.

Let’s set the stage.

Aaron Rodgers, fresh off his third MVP win (and on his way to his fourth), immunized himself right out of a job for a week. So, in comes Love, with only 29 collegiate starts to his name. To his credit, he played well for a rookie walking into Arrowhead Stadium (17th in EPA per play, 22nd in CPOE). But his deep ball wasn’t online yet. Fast forward a few seasons, and he’s dunking on the Cowboys with ease.

Love’s aggressiveness is a double-edged sword. He’s been at or near the top of the league in air yards per attempt on a run-oriented offense. The volatility is why he’s a fringe starter. Remember, though, you don’t hit a home run every time you swing for the fences.

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts has been the embodiment of the #KonamiCode since he got the starting job. He’s led all QBs in rushing attempts for four straight years. Combined with The Tush Push (another cheat code, but with real-world pushback), Hurts has averaged no less than 8.5 PPG just as a runner, which translates to about 150 passing yards and a touchdown through the air. Think about that. You start with that lead every week with him as your starter.

Anyway, Hurts’ total production covered up his limitations as a passer early in his career. In ’21, Daniel Jones and Davis Mills had higher accuracy grades. But Philly’s QB not only worked on his perimeter touch, but also on throws over the middle (career-high 0.55 EPA per attempt on MoF throws in ’24). In fact, his gains in processing showed up when it mattered most.

So, despite pushing A.J. Brown to read on the sideline, Hurts’ improvements as a passer will keep him in contention with Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen for fantasy football QB1 every year. Few other teams can boast a pass-catching group like the Eagles. Fewer have the offensive line to keep their squad in the opposing team’s red zone. With the key contributors on contract for a few more years, Hurts may be piloting the next dynasty in the NFL.

The Running Backs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

If the process for valuing an RB prospect with these traits is wrong, I don’t want to be right.

  • Handled over 50.0% of his team’s carries.
  • Earned an 11.3% target share on the best college offense.
  • Garnered first-round draft capital from the previous year’s Super Bowl champs.
  • Went to a team with an elite QB and a clear need for a starting RB.

All right, I take it back. I want to be right, so I have to acknowledge Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s red flags, or else I’m bound to repeat the same mistake. CEH only had one year as a starter, was a relatively small prospect (5-foot-7), and lacked long speed. So, being Patrick Mahomes’ caddy seemed like a good bet in the beginning.

However, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill hoarded all the targets (286 combined). Kansas City had a top-3 red-zone passing rate, which capped any goal-line opportunities. And even when they did, the LSU product only capitalized one time. The team signing Le’Veon Bell midway through the season was the first of many death knells. And still, to this day, we’ve been chasing the ghost of the Chiefs’ RB to no avail. 

The Day 2 Stars 

Luckily, Day 2 brought us a few fantasy-viable rushers. A couple of them were key pieces of playoff rosters just this past season. But before we get into them, I wanted to recognize the prospect from this class with seemingly the worst luck of the bunch.

D’Andre Swift went to the Lions, presumably to start, as journeyman Kerryon Johnson was yet to break out. Instead, Detroit signed Adrian Peterson, and that created a three-man committee. The kicker was the year after Swift moved to Chicago, his original team vaulted to contender status with back-to-back playoff runs.

But that’s fine. Swift was in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts. It was the year after the Super Bowl loss, and the Eagles had their sights set on another shot at the title. Swift got his shot at being a lead back, he hits a career high in yards, but the Eagles fall short. They swap Swift out for Saquon Barkley, and, well, you know the rest. Now, Swift is languishing away in Chicago, hoping their offseason moves will allow him to play another meaningful game in January.

Poor guy. Let’s focus on a happier career arc.

If you were to tell me an RB was coming off of his fourth catastrophic lower-body injury and would post borderline-RB1 results, I’d suggest you play the lottery instead. But J.K. Dobbins beat the odds. Through Week 10 last season, he ranked in the Top 10 in explosive rush rate and forced missed tackle rate. The guy we saw in Baltimore was back. And as the Chargers continue to invest in the trenches, slotting in Dobbins as a low-end RB2 doesn’t sound too far-fetched. However, there was really only one RB1 from the 2020 class.

Jonathan Taylor has averaged 20 or more touches in a game in three of his five seasons as a professional. And it’s not like he’s been a significant receiving threat padding his numbers. His highest target share was 10.2% in 2021. Otherwise, he’s been running through or around defenders for the last five years. Taylor’s only problem is the guy in front of him before the snap. If Anthony Richardson can have a Josh Allen-like evolution in his mechanics, we’ll be looking at the discount version of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in 2025.

The Wide Receivers

An Arms Race in the First Round

I was going to use the phrase “hands race” instead of “arms race,” but I didn’t think the joke would land on its feet. In either case, that’s how the first night of the draft felt.

Las Vegas kicked things off with Henry Ruggs III. It’s a decision with ramifications that have gone well past the game of football. Meanwhile, the Broncos tried to match their division rival with a WR of their own. Except, the best game of Jerry Jeudy’s career came when he was playing against Denver.

Ah, well. Nevertheless.

At least the Cowboys got it right. Dallas paired route-running maven Amari Cooper with CeeDee Lamb to make things even easier for Dak Prescott. Lamb challenged Cooper for looks from the jump, leading the team in TPRR (21.7%) and YPRR (1.83). The only problem was Lamb played 92.8% of his snaps from the slot. Most were unfamiliar with his game. But he showed he could be a true WR1 without similar talent on the field with him. 

The Eagles tried the same approach and came up short, almost literally. Jalen Reagor was the shortest of the first-round receivers, but had the tallest list of yellow flags. So, watching Dallas secure its WR of the future had to have been irritating to Eagles fans, as Reagor fell behind Greg Ward and Travis Fulgham in the target pecking order. I can’t imagine what it’d be like if the player drafted right after Reagor turned out to be decent.

Oh, wait.

We got an elite receiver and a trendsetter all in one player. The Griddy became a national sensation, with everyone, professional athlete or fan, trying to replicate the dance. It didn’t always go well, but Jefferson’s workload over the years has made the poor attempts bearable. He’s averaged over nine targets per game since 2021. Jefferson is doing his best Mike Evans impersonation with five consecutive seasons with at least 1,000 yards, and the Vikings’ WR played only nine games in ’23. He’s been the star of U.S. Bank Stadium since he stepped foot on the field. At the same time, his classmate had a tougher route to gaining traction with his squad.

What a time.

Brandon Aiyuk goes from a budding rookie with a 17.3% target share to just 4.9 targets per game the following season. Unfortunately for him, it was the year of the “wide back.” It didn’t matter that Aiyuk, in his first year, earned more targets and generated more first downs against man coverage than the 49ers’ veterans. Nor did his team-leading 96 targets, despite primarily playing outside with the highest aDOT of the starters. However, now, with Deebo Samuel in Washington, we can only hope HC Kyle Shanahan will feature more of his skillset with fewer downfield options for Brock Purdy. Aiyuk is coming off a season-ending ACL tear that was repaired mid-November.

The Tight Ends

It feels like every class comes with a set of TEs that will change the face of the league. The reality is something akin to disappointment, but the athletic traits still captivate us from dynasty drafts through redraft season.

Case and point: Albert Okwuegbunam.

The 6-foot-6, 258-pound phenom from Missouri was like cat nip to drafters. They (myself included) could see him pulling away from defenders for long gains despite topping out at 56 targets in a single season during college. Denver drafting him without a move TE on the roster didn’t help. The Broncos’ QB woes only made it worse. Adam Trautman (shoutout to my hometown, Dayton) didn’t work out. The rest of the 2020 class featured mostly vultures. In retrospect, we should’ve seen the athletic but average target earner from the group turning into somebody we could roster at times.

If you’re looking for a few catches, 40-50 yards, and a shot at a touchdown, Cole Kmet is your guy. If you’re relying on Kmet to win you your week, you didn’t plan well.

Pick an issue and it’d help explain Kmet’s cemented residency in the middle class of TEs. Mitch Trubisky was his QB in Year 1. The team brought in Justin Fields and tried a more downfield passing attack to suit Fields’ skillset the season after. Chase Claypool (another misfire from the ’20 class), Darnell Mooney, Dante Pettis, and N’Keal Harry flooded Chicago’s passing game to spark some offensive identity. Through it all, Kmet would run his 22 routes per game and snag a target here and there (2.7 per game). As a result, he’s been one of those you only look to roster when you have no other options.