I have a bone to pick with the people behind draft grades.
I’d like to know when they became the authority on what constitutes a championship team, all the way back in July or August. They should use their clairvoyance for something else. I hear sports betting is fun.
I didn’t realize “taking the trendy players at ADP” was the only strategy worth an "A." I thought, in the year of our Lord 2025, we could celebrate and reward other approaches to building teams. I fear we still have a ways to go as a society.
Look, it’s not like a scathing review of my squad has ever had me reconsidering my methods after I leave a draft. I’m speaking up for those without a platform. And if you think dealing with fantasy rosters is tough, imagine the dilemma for real GMs. We criticize their moves all the time.
However, by looking at three hallmarks of solid team building, we can see which franchises constantly find themselves in a good position going into the summer.
Drafting Players at Premium Positions
“Football is won in the trenches.”
“The NFL is a passing league.”
You’ll see or hear phrases like these when analysts discuss team needs, during the live coverage in Green Bay and throughout the upcoming season. The “trenches” adage has a hint of cringe to it, too. But both hint at where front offices should prioritize their focus.
It’s no different in our game. We know which positions are likeliest to produce the most points. Coupled with starting roster requirements, RBs and WRs rise to the top of the market. QBs aren’t too far behind. But GMs have to weigh personnel on both sides of the ball. So, the list of premium positions becomes a bit longer.
- QB
- EDGE
- OT
- WR
- CB
Intuitively, this list makes sense. The rankings almost mimic how any unit would try to short-circuit their opposition. Pass-rushers limit a QB’s output, requiring a strong tackle. Meanwhile, the WRs and CBs are dueling to see whose skills and prep are better. Anyway, restocking players in these roles can raise a team’s floor and ceiling.
Reminder: just drafting a player doesn’t mean they’ll turn into a hit. Ask the Browns and Jets. They’ve burned the most capital across the five premium positions of any team in the league. The result? They rank 29th and 31st in wins over the last 10 years.
But if we can agree that QB is the most critical piece, we can see why the results haven’t matched the process in these two cases. Contrast them with the Chiefs and Ravens right behind them. Each has been able to field top-12 personnel groupings for multiple years. The same logic extends to Dallas, Arizona, and Houston farther down. Still, because we’ve been able to rely on Cleveland or New York’s defense or their receivers at times, there’s merit to continually adding to a roster by focusing on the premium positions.
Retaining Drafted Players
“Teams can’t lie with their wallets.”
Here’s another saying you’ll catch renditions of throughout draft season. Again, there’s some truth here. Think about all of the smokescreens we get in the spring. The “concerns” from “anonymous scouts or GMs” depressing a prospect’s value seem to crop up every cycle. But then, negative sentiments tend to dissipate once we get to a decision point.
Extensions can follow a similar path. Look at the saga the Bengals WRs went through before landing their respective deals. Tee Higgins had to defend his agent in the spring as a path to a long-term agreement looked impossible. Joe Burrow didn’t know if Ja’Marr Chase would be available for the Week 1 opener against the Patriots. Burrow’s strongarming of Cincinnati’s leadership rewarded fans with what they’ve wanted for years. They kept their good players.
How often a team agrees to an extension is another sign of a good pick. Sure, we won’t know until years down the road. Yet, after seeing who’s been aggressive in their contracts, some of the same teams from the last section are in the top half of the league again.
I realize part of the issue for a few teams is where they’re at in their deals. The Chiefs have 19 players on rookie contracts. Six end next year, likely pulling them back into the average extension rate. In any case, let’s look at the teams that are higher up on the scale.
Philadelphia claiming the top spot isn’t much of a surprise. At worst, they’re getting ahead of the ever-rising cost of maintaining roster continuity. The financial flexibility (Eagles rank 13th in cap space for 2026) will be key in keeping the squad ready for another Super Bowl run. The better takeaway is that they’ve been able to identify the most prospects worth a second contract in the first place. Buffalo is in a similar position after Josh Allen’s extension, which has led to 13 other deals.
So, while these market-resetting events come with the excitement of what lies ahead, recognizing the front offices that navigate these situations at an above-average rate will net you franchises with sound draft processes.
Getting Value Out of Rookies
“These rookies have to hit the ground running.”
Admittedly, analysts (including myself) have to pump up the drama a bit in the offseason. There’s not much else happening. But it doesn’t make the expression any less true. Teams in contending windows especially sense the pressure. Everyone, including the new guys, has to show out, putting the spotlight on the freshmen.
Even so, the idea of drafting a player to, well, play seems simplistic. You’d think a team used draft capital on them to do more than stand on the sidelines. But things happen. It takes time to acclimate to the pro level. Some take longer than others. Still, I leveraged a way to measure a player’s contributions relative to their peers and gauge which teams are getting the most out of their rookies.
The process uses PFF grades and snap counts to calculate a total value. Yes, the grades have their flaws. However, it blends on-field stats with the necessary context of a positional assignment. Combined with how often a player was on the field (i.e., snaps), the product can create a path to comparing an entire class. I’ll use each team’s draft from last year as a proxy.
At first glance, seeing the 49ers with the most value gained from last year’s draft made my head tilt to the side. They didn’t even make the playoffs! Then, I looked at their first-year acquisitions. OT Dominick Puni, taken in the third round, earned a spot on the Pro Football Writers of America All-Rookie team. On the other side of the ball, Malik Mustapha had the seventh-lowest passer rating when targeted by any safety with at least 200 coverage snaps. I didn’t even have to mention Ricky Pearsall’s late-season surge.
Anyway, seeing the Chargers (Joe Alt, Tarheeb Still) and Eagles (Cooper DeJean, Quinyon Mitchell) also high in the ranks showed proof of concept. It’s not perfect, and I’d incorporate the specific round in future versions. Nevertheless, we’ve got something. So, let’s extend it to the last ten drafts and see which teams are hitting the ground running with their picks.
As a Cincinnati fan, I agree with having the fifth-lowest total value since 2015. Last year was yet another disaster. Erick All re-injured his ACL. Jermaine Burton sought solace at the local casinos after getting benched. Drafting for need, instead of favoring a best-player-available mindset, has turned the difficulty of each season up a notch. Without any younger players to bear the load, everything falls on the shoulders of the veterans. So, on the flip side, you can see how better drafting can make things easier.
The Rams lost Aaron Donald, and Cooper Kupp’s health declined, but they were a snow game in Philly away from going to the NFC Conference Championship.
Pittsburgh has had to trot out six different QBs since Ben Roethlisberger retired, and they’ve yet to have a losing season. HC Mike Tomlin’s voodoo can only do so much of the heavy lifting. The instant influx of viable talent, along with star veterans, is what’s sustaining all of these squads, emphasizing their team’s ability to make the best picks in the draft.
