Ian Hartitz analyzes the team needs for the Atlanta Falcons for the 2025 NFL Draft and season ahead.
There were seemingly two key problems for the Falcons from 2021 to 2023: Head coach and QB. Accordingly, Raheem Morris and Kirk Cousins were paid to save the day ahead of 2024 by giving what sure looked like a complete roster on paper the extra push needed to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
That was the plan, anyway, but you know what they say about best laid plans. Things were moving in the right direction during the first half of the season with Cousins learning how to swag surf while leading the team to a 6-3 start; too bad four consecutive Ls and a brutal 112-yard passing effort against the lowly Raiders cost the Falcons' $180-million-dollar man his job.
Enter: No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix, who flashed during his three starts under center despite unfortunately dropping back-to-back overtime thrillers to end the season. The future is meow in Atlanta with Cousins expected to play elsewhere in 2025, although it remains to be seen if Penix is really a high-end long-term answer for a franchise still searching for its first Super Bowl title.
Today we'll recap some of the good and bad of 2024 before getting into potential offseason injuries to monitor as well as team needs ahead of the 2025 offseason.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
ATLANTA FALCONS 2024 RECAP
- Record: 8-9 (9.5 preseason win total)
- Points per game: 22.9 (13th)
- EPA per dropback: +0.083 (16th)
- EPA per rush: -0.015 (7th)
- Points per game allowed: 24.9 (23rd)
- Leading passer: Kirk Cousins (3,508 pass yards, 18 TD, 16 INT)
- Leading rusher: Bijan Robinson (304 carries, 1,456 yards, 14 TD)
- Leading receiver: Drake London (100 receptions, 1,271 yards, 9 TD)
Biggest surprise: WR Darnell Mooney
The ex-Bears WR received a fairly surprising $39-million contract in free agency to work as the Robin to Drake London's Batman. Back-to-back sub-500-yard seasons in Chicago led to minimal expectations inside a Falcons passing game that was expected to primarily flow through London and TE Kyle Pitts.
And yet, Mooney had other ideas. The fifth-year veteran actually led the Falcons in receiving yards (873) during the first 13 weeks of the season, regularly causing all kinds of problems for opposing secondaries on the outside. His ability to seemingly get open at will on deep outs was particularly cool.
Nobody is confusing Mooney for a high-end No. 1 WR, but he's clearly capable of causing problems against single coverage opposite of London and sure seems to fit well into OC Zac Robinson's passing attack.
Biggest disappointment: TE Kyle Pitts
2024 wasn't all bad for Pitts. His 4 catches for 91 yards and 2 TDs in Week 8 had the look of a true breakout performance. Maybe the former No. 4 overall pick was finally ready to live up to the generational billing that fantasy managers had been chasing ever since 2021.
Or not.
Pitts fantasy rank by month (PPR):
- September: TE16
- October: TE3
- November: TE38
- December/January: TE29
Mr. October couldn't get much of anything going during the final two months of the season, failing to reach even 60 yards in each of his final nine games. The game-tying TD vs. Washington was cool and all, but even with Penix under center the 24-year-old talent continued to simply not look all that, you know, good at football.
Maybe we'll look back at this early-career slump and laugh in a few years, although at this point it's worth wondering if Pitts might benefit from a change of scenery. Trade rumors have already started.
Key injuries
All key fantasy-relevant members of the Falcons are tentatively believed to be healthy ahead of the 2025 offseason. The one exception is WR3/WR4 Rondale Moore, who missed all of 2024 with a knee injury. Either way, he's an unrestricted free agent and isn't guaranteed to be back in town.
What Are The Biggest Needs of the Falcons Ahead Of 2025?
- Draft picks: 1.15, 2.46, 4.117, 7.244
- Effective space: -$14.4 million (28th)
- 2025 spending: 7th on offense, 11th on defense
- Key free agents: WR Rondale Moore, WR KhaDarel Hodge, C Drew Dalman, C Ryan Neuzil (RFA), EDGE Matthew Judon, EDGE Lorenzo Carter, LB Nate Landman (RFA), CB Mike Hughes, CB Dee Alford (RFA), S Justin Simmons, S Richie Grant
Team Need No. 1: Center
Starting C Drew Dalman is an unrestricted free agent, while backup Ryan Neuzil is a restricted free agent. The rest of the line is pretty much good to go, but securing the snapper is key—particularly with Dalman earning PFF's fourth-best overall grade among 43 qualified players at the position last season.
Team Need No. 2: EDGE
The Falcons sent the Patriots a 2025 third-round pick for Matthew Judon last August, although he didn't exactly light the league on fire with just 5.5 sacks—his fewest in a non-injury-shortened season since his rookie year.
Of course, Judon wasn't the only Falcons pass rusher to disappoint last season. Their group of EDGE defenders as a whole were awfully mediocre.
Falcons EDGE pass rush win rate in 2024:
- Arnold Ebiketie: 12.5% (47th among 122 qualified players)
- Matthew Judon: 6.2% (104th)
- James Smith-Williams: 5.6% (109th)
- Lorenzo Carter: 3.5% (120th)
Overall, the Falcons' 28.5% pressure rate was the third-lowest mark in the league, and they're one of just five defenses with under $10 million devoted to their EDGE defenders in 2025. Whether it's getting more out of Judon and Co. in 2025, or seriously investing in more pass rushers via the draft or free agency, this defense needs to do a better job getting after opposing QBs next season.
Team Need No. 3: Cornerback
Obviously, A.J. Terrell is the Falcons' CB1 of the present and future after signing a four-year, $81 million deal last August.
But after that: Reinforcements are needed. Sidekick Mike Hughes is hitting free agency, as is nickelback Dee Alford (RFA). Hell, backups Kevin King and Antonio Hamilton are also entering free agency–there has the potential to be a LOT of turnover here.
Perhaps it's time to go back to the well in the draft. Atlanta has used just two top-100 picks on defensive backs in the last five drafts combined. Terrell and stud S Jessie Bates are certainly capable of picking up the slack to some extent, but it'd be a lot cooler if the level of the complementary options is raised ahead of 2025.