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Houston Texans Team Needs For The NFL Draft and 2025: A WR2 Behind Nico Collins
Ian Hartitz goes to the Lone Star State to identify the team needs for the Houston Texans going into the NFL Draft and 2025 season.
The Texans looked like a borderline juggernaut after ripping off five wins in their first six games of 2024, but their 5-6 finish told a different story. Ultimately, the team scored 372 points during the regular season … and also allowed 372 points—their *0* point differential was just the 16th-best mark in the NFL.
And yet, a thumping 20-point win over the Chargers in the Wild Card Round and arguable fluky loss to the Chiefs at Arrowhead has C.J. Stroud and Co. (again) entering the offseason feeling like their best football is still to come. More work obviously needs to be done; just realize the team's big-five players at their best look capable of competing against pretty much any opposing group in the league.
Today we'll recap some of the good and bad of 2024 before getting into potential offseason injuries to monitor as well as team needs ahead of the 2025 offseason.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
What Are The Biggest Needs of the Texans Ahead Of 2025?
- Draft picks: 1.25, 2.58, 3.89, 4.127, 5.167, 7.243
- Effective space: -$2.9 million (25th)
- 2025 spending: 6th on offense, 19th on defense
- Key free agents: QB Case Keenum, RB Dare Ogunbowale, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Robert Woods, EDGE Derek Barnett, DL Mario Edwards, DL Folorunso Fatukasi, LB De'Shawn Phillips, LB Neville Hewitt, S Eric Murray, S M.J. Stewart, CB Jeff Okudah
Team Need No. 1: Wide Receiver
The season ending injuries to Diggs (free agent) and Tank Dell leave Houston looking at a potential Week 1 trio of Nico Collins, Xavier Hutchinson, and John Metchie at the moment. The former baller is obviously anyone's idea of a legit No. 1 WR, but the latter two youngsters have just 60 career receptions combined to their names.
Overall, Collins, Metchie, and Dell represent the team's only three top-100 draft picks at the position since 2016! Adding some depth at some stage of the draft is paramount, while it also might behoove the organization to continue to take advantage of Stroud's rookie contract by again investing in a veteran at the position (Chris Godwin? Amari Cooper?).
Team Need No. 2: Interior Defensive Line
The team's various free agents across the front leave Houston as one of just four teams with under $10 million devoted to their interior defensive linemen ahead of 2025.
Of course, having Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter coming off the edge helps matters quite a bit; just realize further fortifying the middle should help the team improve its standing as the 19th-ranked defense in rush yards before contact allowed per carry and 20th-ranked group in pressure rate.
Team Need No. 3: Offensive Line
There aren't really any major free agents to speak of here: PFF's 29th-ranked group just needs to get, you know, better.
- LT Laremy Tunsil: PFF's 23rd highest-graded tackle among 87 qualified players
- LG Juice Scruggs: 68th among 109
- C Jarrett Patterson: 83rd among 109
- RG Shaq Mason: 76th among 109
- RT Tytus Howard: 40th among 87
With the exception of Tunsil, it's safe to say the Texans could use upgrades across the board. Maybe recent top-two round picks Kenyon Green, Juice Scruggs, and Blake Fisher find a way to improve mightily ahead of 2025; either way the team needs to do everything in its power to avoid watching Stroud take *eight* sacks to end their season once again.
HOUSTON TEXANS 2024 RECAP
- Record: 10-7 (9.5 preseason win total)
- Points per game: 21.9 (19th)
- EPA per dropback: +0.009 (21st)
- EPA per rush: -0.12 (23rd)
- Points per game allowed: 21.9 (14th)
- Leading passer: C.J. Stroud (3,727 pass yards, 20 TD, 12 INT)
- Leading rusher: Joe Mixon (245 carries, 1,016 yards, 11 TD)
- Leading receiver: Nico Collins (68 receptions, 1,006 yards, 7 TD)
Biggest Surprise: RB Joe Mixon
Mixon came into the season fully expected to work as the offense's lead back. That happened, but the more surprising part was the ex-Bengal producing on par with some of the game's very best players at the position for a large portion of the season. Consider: Mixon was the RB2 in PPR points per game (21.2)—behind only Saquon Barkley (22.7)—in Weeks 1-14 … but then worked as the RB37 (8.2) on a per-game basis during the fantasy playoffs in Weeks 15-17.
By and large: Mixon looked better as a pure runner of the football than he had in years.
Mixon rush yards over expected per carry:
- 2024: +0.37 (19th)
- 2023: +0.02 (27th)
- 2022: +0.21 (24th)
- 2021: -0.07 (27th)
- 2020: -0.25 (41st)
The falloff when it mattered most certainly grinded the gears of fantasy managers, but back-to-back playoff performances with triple-digit yards and a TD reinforced the idea that Mixon was still very much capable of thriving as a true three-down back.
Biggest disappointment: QB C.J. Stroud
We also could have gone with TE Dalton Schultz here, but Stroud's preseason expectations were certainly in another stratosphere.
Feel free to blame Bobby Slowik, the offensive line, and/or copious WR injuries: Either way the 2024 version of Stroud was largely a shell of the man we saw during his rookie season. Among 32 qualified QBs …
Stroud's finish as the QB28 in fantasy points per game (gross) made him easily the biggest faller (-23) from preseason ADP (QB5). Nobody else had a dropoff of more than 14 spots.
Stroud doesn't turn 24 until October; his sophomore slump is hardly reason to completely sound the fire alarms on his career. Still, many were ready to anoint the Ohio State product as a legit top-5 real-life and fantasy QB after his memorable rookie campaign, and that sentiment simply isn't really around these days.
Key injuries
Two key WR issues highlight the Texans' present injury problems:
Stefon Diggs: Tore his ACL late in October, presumably putting him on track for a return at some point in the first four to five weeks of 2025. Of course, Diggs does turn 32 next November, so it's worth wondering if the injury and Father TIme prohibit the current free agent from ever balling out like it's 2020 again.
Tank Dell: Had a surgery in January to likely address his MCL/LCL/meniscus tears first, meaning his ACL will likely be fixed at some point in February. A 9-to-11 month timeline could bring back Dell at some point from November to January, but the complicated nature of the brutal injury makes it plenty possible that he: 1.) Isn't the same player, and/or 2.) Won't be back on the football field until 2026.
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