I usually don’t quote myself, but my thoughts on the early rounds when drafting are a solid lead into today’s topic:
“The onesie positions are my biggest temptation in the early rounds. I’ve written about late-round QBs and streaming strategies, and I love telling myself a story about how drafting Irv Smith will be fine.
And then Travis Kelce dunks on me every year.”
And my reaction is usually the same. I promise myself that I’ll get one of the elite TEs next year, no matter what. I just want to set and forget the position. But then the rest of my leaguemates have the same idea, so I pivot into the middle and late-round TE options.
Late-round TEs feel like too much work. They’re too volatile, and their weak projected scores can cause us to make bad roster changes. However, as always, I’ve got a profile for you to target with a few late-round TEs worth stashing as we head into the 2023 season.
Process Notes
As with late-round WRs, let’s define the term “late-round TEs”.
Subjectively, my mind goes to the guys you have to think about before starting them. When you see their name, you become Alonzo Mourning contemplating how things went wrong.
If you don’t do a double-take before moving them into an active lineup slot, scroll down a bit more. But, of course, there’s an objective method to get us started.
Let’s remove Taysom Hill, who's really more of a QB/TE hybrid, from consideration. The other TEs on the list above couldn’t crack a target share of 15.0% last season. They lived on an average of only 4.4 targets per game.
And while Chigoziem Okonkwo sits at TE11 in our consensus ranks, you won’t find Gerald Everett until TE16, which gives us a reasonable cutoff. Everyone has to pick at least one, a few will (wrongly) draft a backup TE, and 16 TEs come off the board before a defense or kicker. With that in mind, let’s find a useful profile to identify late-round TEs worth targeting for the coming season.
I sampled the last two seasons of data to see what had the most influence on TE scoring. Unsurprisingly, getting the ball helps a lot.
Earning targets at a high rate is one of the most significant indicators of a productive fantasy TE. Over the last two seasons, the top-12 TEs averaged a 20.0% share of their team’s looks. For reference, Tee Higgins, the WR18 in PPR scoring, had a 20.6% target rate in 2022.
But we know that TEs (and every other skill position) need volume to thrive. And that’ll be hard to find if we’re dumpster diving in the late rounds. As I said, last year’s late-round TEs averaged 4.4 just targets per game. So let’s take a slight step back and focus on another metric that can help us find options deep into drafts: routes per team dropback.
Even if a TE is on the field, the dual nature of their position might require them to play in-line and block. We need receiving TEs in fantasy. To put it another way, we should focus on TEs who play a big role in their respective offenses’ passing game, even if a large portion of their routes result in just a cardio workout rather than generating fantasy production.
Top-12 fantasy TEs averaged 73.0% of their team’s dropbacks over the last two years. But again, they’re the gold standard. The late-round options (TE16 to TE27) averaged just 54.8% routes per dropback rate, which gives us a threshold.
Offensive situations (pass rate over expected, expected points added per play) and individual athletic skills (yards per route run, yards after the catch, etc.) can change our confidence levels in any TEs available late. With this profile in mind, I’ve got three late-round TEs to target in 2023 drafts.
Gerald Everett, Chargers
- ADP: TE18
Gerald Everett largely flies under the radar because of his teammates. Austin Ekeler routinely comes off the board in the first round as one of the top RBs with rushing and receiving production. And the WRs are still mainstays of the early part of the draft. Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missed time last year, but the addition of Quentin Johnston gives Los Angeles a much-needed intermediate threat.
As a result, Everett running a route on just 57.0% of Justin Herbert’s dropbacks last season shouldn’t be a surprise. High-end WR options headlined the Chargers' passing corps (when healthy). Plus, Everett’s lacking skills as a blocker conflicted with the Chargers’ injuries to their offensive line. Still, Everett managed to show some flashes in 2022.
The 29-year-old veteran’s 22.1% targets per route run (TPRR) ranked 12th among TEs last year. In short, if he was on the field, he was running routes, and Herbert was looking Everett’s way. But I just mentioned Johnston working his way into the pecking order. And we should see more of Allen and Williams, as both missed time with injuries in 2022. Despite the uncertainty, Everett still has a path to beat fantasy production this coming season.
Everett (19.4%) ranked 12th in red-zone target share last season. Incidentally, the Chargers were ninth in red-zone pass rate over expectation (PROE) when Herbert wasn’t nursing a cracked rib. But I can sense your skepticism.
Having Allen and Williams out would lend itself to more targets for Everett; it’s not like Joshua Palmer or Michael Bandy were demanding targets. But even when Allen and Williams were both healthy from Weeks 14 to 17, Everett still factored into the offense when in scoring position:
- Allen - 7 red-zone targets
- Ekeler – 5
- Everett – 4
- Williams – 2
The Chargers came out of 2022 fourth in PROE and 16th in EPA per play. Even assuming health for their top three WRs, taking a swing on the cheapest piece in that offense in Everett is an easy call for me at ADP.
Jake Ferguson, Cowboys
- ADP: TE21
Before we dive into Ferguson, let’s look at his potential ceiling using some numbers from last year.
Dalton Schultz averaged 72.8% routes per dropback in 2022, which ranked ninth among TEs. And with Dallas’s limited receiving options (Michael Gallup returning from injury plus a cast of ancillary WRs headlined by T.Y. Hilton), Schultz quickly became a higher priority in the offense. His 23.0% TPRR ranked eighth at the TE position.
Aug 12, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson (87) makes a leaping catch past Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Shaquille Quarterman (50) during the first quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
But I’m willing to wager that Schultz’s situation was a larger driver of his fantasy relevance than his talent. Despite the volume, the journeyman ranked outside the top-12 TEs in YPRR, 21st in YAC per reception, and 23rd in first downs per target.
So with Schultz now in Houston, the Cowboys' starting TE role is still lucrative for fantasy. And the only significant addition Dallas made to the passing game this offseason was Brandin Cooks. With that said, let’s look at Dallas’s TE options heading into 2023.
I’m not expecting a 4.75 YPRR, but the route rate looks repeatable. Ferguson ran with the starters in Week 1 of the preseason and was on the field for 76.5% of the snaps and ran a route on 52.9% of Cooper Rush’s dropbacks. Most notably, Ferguson earned the most targets of any pass-catcher who saw first-team reps.
Ferguson displayed some receiving ability in 2022, running 25.6% of his routes from the slot even with Schultz still on the roster. And now, he’s positioned as the starter on a team who targeted the TE position at the eighth-highest rate last season. Without many other options on a high-powered offense, Ferguson should be a priority late-round TE option for fantasy managers.
Luke Musgrave, Packers
- ADP: TE23
I realize that advocating for a rookie TE isn’t historically in my favor. Actually, just looking at Packers’ TEs alone puts me at odds with my usual process of leaning on past trends for analysis.
- 2022: Robert Tonyan led Green Bay in yards (470) and was just the fantasy TE20
- 2021: Josiah Deguara – TE20
- 2020: Tonyan – TE4
- 2019: Jimmy Graham – TE21
- 2018: Graham – TE12
But let’s think about this new Packers’ offense for a minute. Jordan Love is about to enter his first full season as Green Bay’s starter, and we only have one data point on him as a starter from Week 9 in 2021. In that game, the Packers’ PROE fell to -3.0% from their seasonal average of +4.0% with Aaron Rodgers under center. And more importantly, Love was a conservative passer.
Green Bay Packers tight end Luke Musgrave (88) stretches for a pass that lands incomplete in the first quarter of the NFL Preseason Week 1 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Green Bay Packers at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Friday, Aug. 11, 2023. The Packers led 21-16 at halftime. Photo Credit: Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
Love’s 7.8 aDOT was 18th among all starters that week, and he peppered the slot with 15 of his 34 attempts going to the inside. The Packers wanted to take some pressure off Love and rely on their skill players to create after the catch. His ascension to the starting QB job shouldn’t change their approach, especially considering their current roster.
Christian Watson should lead the team in looks, but he only ran 31.6% of his routes from the slot. Romeo Doubs (22.4% slot rate) will play the X-receiver role. Without Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, the inside duties fall to rookie Jayden Reed. But with a thin list of ancillary options, Musgrave’s already made his mark this preseason.
Musgrave played 100% of the snaps in Week 2 of the preseason and matched Watson and Doubs in routes run. He also earned the most targets (3) with his fellow rookie, Reed, coming in right behind him in targets (2).
It’s a new day in Green Bay, and Love being an unknown has suppressed the cost of all the Packers' passing-game options. But now we do know how much Musgrave will factor into the offense from Week 1, and as a result, he should be a priority late-round TE option.
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