I’ll be honest. I usually avoid doing mocks before showing up to my redraft league.
Best ball has taught me everything.
Based on trends from a top-heavy tournament allowing multiple entries, I’ve got a feel for who should be available in each round. So, I’ve walked into every home league draft with unwavering confidence. Drafting against well-adjusted fans should be a walk in the park after battling against sickos who started building their portfolio in March.
At least, that’s what I tell myself until the picks start flying.
We spend so much time on best ball strategy that our redraft approach can get put on autopilot. To help, I got some of the Fantasy Life staff together for a mock.
Let’s look at the teams and their process with a few rounds complete.
Looking for a way-too-early 2024 fantasy football mock draft? We have you covered!
League Notes
- League Size and Scoring: 12-team, PPR
- Site ADP: Sleeper
- Starting Roster: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 K, 1 DEF
First Round
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1.01 - Justin Jefferson (Marcas)
Justin Jefferson was one of five WRs in the top 10 for target share, air yard share, weighted opportunity, and routes per dropback. The Vikings ended last season sixth in pass rate over expected (PROE) and added a receiver with their only top-100 pick. No need to overthink this one.
1.02 - Ja’Marr Chase (Jake)
Before suffering a fractured hip, only Tyreek Hill had more targets than Ja’Marr Chase. The explosive junior saw even more work out of the slot in his second season while still functioning as the WR1 on an offense with the fourth-highest Super Bowl odds. My Bengals bias aside, there isn’t a better option from the two spot than Chase.
1.03 - Christian McCaffrey (Kendall)
Christian McCaffrey’s 22.3% target share was greater than Tee Higgins’s, and McCaffrey had more attempts inside the 10-yard line (20) than Ezekiel Elliot (19). And I pulled these numbers after his trade to San Francisco. Few RBs have the same dual-threat workload as CMC; even fewer are on teams with as much firepower as the 49ers.
Dec 4, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) stiff arms Miami Dolphins cornerback Kader Kohou (28) during the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
1.04 – Cooper Kupp (Waz)
You can find Cooper Kupp toward the top of the same lists as Chase and Jefferson before injuries derailed his and the Rams’ season. But we should expect more passing after they slipped to ninth in PROE with Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay back to command the offense. We could see a lite version of Kupp’s triple-crown performance this year without the team adding more competition.
1.05 – Travis Kelce (Jonathan)
Travis Kelce is still the undisputed TE1. He had the third-best targets per first down rate (2.0) while still having a target share (24.9%) similar to DK Metcalf (25.6%). If Patrick Mahomes still trusts him, so should we.
1.06 – Austin Ekeler (Cooter)
Austin Ekeler ran hot in ’22 with an 18.5% target share and the tenth-highest share of his team’s carries from inside the ten-yard line. Kellen Moore’s arrival should produce more vertical shots from the Chargers’ offense, but Ekeler still has the every-down role to justify taking him in the first round.
1.07 – Tyreek Hill (Dwain)
Tyreek Hill led the league in YPRR with a higher target share than Jefferson. At 29 years old, Hill still had the burst and acceleration to be top-10 in yards after the catch and first in yards generated on passes of 20 yards or more. The WR1 on a high-flying offense? Sign me up.
1.08 – Bijan Robinson (Freedman)
Bijan Robinson’s collegiate profile highlighted his explosive running ability and efficient performance as a pass-catcher. And now he’ll lead the Atlanta offense that was 31st in PROE last season but fifth in rushing success rate. Robinson is the best example of a perfect match between talent and opportunity in the first round.
1.09 – Stefon Diggs (Ian)
Stefon Diggs still boasts the 11th-highest target share among all WRs and remains Josh Allen’s primary option on passing downs. But Allen’s mobility gives Diggs a lesser ceiling compared to his peers. However, with Buffalo still third in PROE after their coaching change, Diggs should be a staple in the back half of the first round.
1.10 – CeeDee Lamb (Geoff)
Even with a turnover-riddled season from his QB, CeeDee Lamb still finished fifth in PPR scoring in ’22. Mike McCarthy can talk about running the ball all he wants, but Lamb’s slot role earned him the fourth-most targets per game.
1.11 – A.J. Brown (Peter)
A.J. Brown took over the Eagles’ passing game with a 28.7% target share (7th-best) and 40.7% air yard share (4th). Even on a team that was 17th in PROE, Brown still posted the fifth-most yards per game with six top-12 weekly finishes.
Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, US; Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) runs with the ball against Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Jaylen Watson (35) during the second quarter of Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
1.12 – Saquon Barkley (McCuen)
Saquon Barkley’s looming contract dispute will have a lot of drafters unable to make the click. But Matt McCuen swung on Barkley’s 13.6% forced missed tackle rate, which aligns with his rookie season. Plus, Barkley could still maintain the third-highest target share on the team (16.9%). After generating 29.1% of the Giants’ offense in ’22 on his own, they clearly need him back this season.
Second Round
2.01 – Davante Adams (McCuen)
Matt had to separate team vibes from player projection at the start of the second round. Jimmy Garoppolo (finally) got cleared to play, and Josh Jacobs may not be with the team anytime soon. But Davante Adams had the highest target share of any WR last season with the eighth-most RZ looks. As a result, he’s still worth a second-round pick after losing Darren Waller over the offseason.
2.02 – Jonathan Taylor (Peter)
Do you mean to tell me there’s a former consensus 1.01 pick at RB, who didn’t meet expectations only because of an injury, with pass-catching upside, available a round later this year? I guess Pete was the only one that knew.
2.03 - Nick Chubb (Geoff)
Cleveland wants the most out of Deshaun Watson and made moves in the offseason to upgrade the passing game. Meanwhile, they parted ways with Kareem Hunt in the offseason. We already know Nick Chubb will lead the backfield in touches and most of the league in yards after contact or forced missed tackles. But a more efficient offense gives Chubb a shot at being this year’s overall RB1.
2.04 - Tony Pollard (Ian)
Ian took one look at Pollard’s explosive run rate (24.9%) and 10.9% target share and couldn’t help himself. The franchise tag concerns are worth monitoring ahead of the season, but with Ezekiel Elliot still a free agent, the Dallas backfield belongs to Pollard. And unless Dak Prescott’s rushing comes back (fewer scrambles than Davis Mills), Pollard’s redzone touch count projection is worth the click.
2.05 - Derrick Henry (Freedman)
Fade Derrick Henry’s age if you want, but Freedman wasn’t scared. The Big Dog still commanded 77.6% of the Titans’ carries. And now, with DeAndre Hopkins in the fold, some juice in the passing game should take some attention away from the ’20 rush king.
2.06 - Amon-Ra St. Brown (Dwain)
Like Barkley’s importance to the Giants’ offense, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s connection with Jared Goff is critical to Detroit’s passing game. After St. Brown’s return from injury, the Lions’ offense jumped to third in EPA per play. St. Brown was third in overall targets and seventh in obvious passing situations, which is an excellent pair for Dwain after drafting Tyreek Hill.
2.07 - Garrett Wilson (Cooter)
I have concerns about Garrett Wilson’s added target competition, but Cooter doesn’t. Wilson’s rookie campaign ended with a top-20 rank in YPRR (19th) and target share (10th). He posted week-winning highlights despite catching passes from Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Chris Streveler. However, Wilson should be able to meet his ADP with Aaron Rodgers under center for the Jets.
2.08 - Jaylen Waddle (Jonathan)
Jaylen Waddle may be a WR2 by designation, but Jonathan knew how little that mattered for Waddle. The third-year receiver was third in YPRR with more YAC than Tyreek Hill. Waddle accounted for 20.8% of the team’s targets, and Miami's only significant addition was an RB, giving Waddle a sure shot at outkicking his ADP.
Nov 27, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) makes a catch over Houston Texans safety M.J. Stewart (29) during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY
2.09 - Rhamondre Stevenson (Waz)
The betting markets are telling us Dalvin Cook will be a Patriot, but Rob took a chance on New England’s current starting RB. Stevenson led the league in yards after contact per attempt as a runner with the second-most targets among RBs. New England hopes they can resume some sense of a functional offense with Bill O’Brien back, but drafters should be mindful of Cook’s potential signing.
2.10 - Josh Jacobs (Kendall)
Kendall drafted Josh Jacobs before he decided to miss the start of training camp, but let’s assume he returns. Jacobs set a career-high in rushing yards after handling 80.4% of the team’s carries and the second-most in the league from inside the ten-yard line. Zamir White may be waiting for his shot, but Jacobs has the job for now.
2.11 - Mark Andrews (Jake)
Jake also wanted a WR at his TE spot, and Mark Andrews matches the description with Kelce off the board. In 2021, the Ravens’ TE was ninth in target share among all WRs and TEs. He even had a larger end-zone target share than Kelce. With Baltimore’s offense becoming more pass-friendly, Andrews can close the gap between himself and Kelce.
2.12 - Jalen Hurts (Marcas)
Marcas broke the QB seal with Fantasy Life’s consensus QB1. Hurts took a step forward as a passer, ranking second in CPOE while still gaining the third-most yards of any passer on the ground. With three high-end options still at his disposal, Hurts can leverage his Konami-code skills to be the QB1 again in ’23.
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Third Round
- 3.01 - DeVonta Smith (Marcas)
- 3.02 - Keenan Allen (Jake)
- 3.03 - Chris Olave (Kendall)
- 3.04 - Patrick Mahomes (Waz)
- 3.05 - Breece Hall (Jonathan)
- 3.06 - Joe Burrow (Cooter)
- 3.07 - Josh Allen (Dwain)
- 3.08 - Tee Higgins (Freedman)
- 3.09 - Lamar Jackson (Ian)
- 3.10 - DK Metcalf (Geoff)
- 3.11 - Deebo Samuel (Peter)
- 3.12 - Jahmyr Gibbs (McCuen)
Marcas broke the QB seal at the end of the second round with Jalen Hurts and followed it up with the Eagles' WR1B, DeVonta Smith. Similar to Miami's passing game, Smith and A.J. Brown accounted for 55.8% of Hurts' passes. Even on a run-oriented team (17th in PROE), this stack will be tough to beat.
Nobody decided to buck any ADP trends. But one pick did catch my eye.
Ian snagged Lamar Jackson at QB5 and the Baltimore offense looks primed to be the high-flying, fast-paced offense we expected. Zay Flowers (aka Joystick) has been my target out of the Baltimore WR trio, but getting the Ravens' QB1 (and RB1) is a strong start to any squad.
Fourth Round
- 4.01 - Travis Etienne (McCuen)
- 4.02 - Jerry Jeudy (Peter)
- 4.03 - Christian Watson (Geoff)
- 4.04 - Calvin Ridley (Ian)
- 4.05 - Najee Harris (Freedman)
- 4.06 - Amari Cooper (Dwain)
- 4.07 - Kenneth Walker III (Cooter)
- 4.08 - Terry McLaurin (Jonathan)
- 4.09 - Aaron Jones (Waz)
- 4.10 - Justin Fields (Kendall)
- 4.11 - DeAndre Hopkins (Jake)
- 4.12 - T.J. Hockenson (Marcas)
I need to rethink my stance on Calvin Ridley.
His target share ballooned to 24.8% in his final season with the Falcons as Ridley posted a top-7 mark in YPRR. And based on camp highlights, it looks like he's the same WR.
Jacksonville needs a primary receiving option, and Ridley is him, as the kids say. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ridley creep closer to the start of the third round if we get to see him during the preseason. But let's zoom out on the draft for a second.
Through four rounds, Waz put together a strong squad. Despite going with Cooper Kupp at 1.04, he pivoted to address the RB position with Rhamondre Stevenson and Aaron Jones. And in a standard redraft league, a balanced approach like this (with Patrick Mahomes) lifts your weekly floor and is an approach every manager should take into account before draft day.
Fifth Round
- 5.01 - Joe Mixon (Marcas)
- 5.02 - Alexander Mattison (Jake)
- 5.03 - D.J. Moore (Kendall)
- 5.04 - Mike Williams (Waz)
- 5.05 - Drake London (Jonathan)
- 5.06 - Chris Godwin (Cooter)
- 5.07 - Diontae Johnson (Dwain)
- 5.08 - Michael Pittman (Freedman)
- 5.09 - George Kittle (Ian)
- 5.10 - Marquise Brown (Geoff)
- 5.11 - Brandon Aiyuk (Peter)
- 5.12 - Justin Herbert (McCuen)
Two picks stood out after the fifth round: Diontae Johnson and Justin Herbert.
I'm sure you've seen the stat about Johnson's inability to find the end zone last year. So everyone's assuming he'll positively regress and make everyone (fantasy managers and Steelers' coaching staff alike) happy. But there's more to his value than rooting for touchdowns.
Johnson had a 26.8% target share last season. He was sandwiched between DeVonta Smith and Chris Olave. Johnson was multiple spots ahead of DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, and Garrett Wilson.
The reason why I'm bringing them up? They're all drafted ahead of Johnson. Assuming his overall efficiency returns, he has the volume to jump some of the best receivers in fantasy value.
Meanwhile, I've been sold on Justin Herbert as a top-tier QB to target. The Chargers have the fifth-highest average weekly implied total, ended last season with the fifth-best PROE, and yet, Herbert routinely comes off the board as the QB7. With the Bolts' WRs and linemen back healthy, Herbert should be closer to Fields in value.
Sixth Round
- 6.01 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (McCuen)
- 6.02 - Kyle Pitts (Peter)
- 6.03 - D'Andre Swift (Geoff)
- 6.04 - Tyler Lockett (Ian)
- 6.05 - Mike Evans (Freedman)
- 6.06 - J.K. Dobbins (Dwain)
- 6.07 - Miles Sanders (Cooter)
- 6.08 - Cam Akers (Jonathan)
- 6.09 - Dameon Pierce (Waz)
- 6.10 - Christian Kirk (Kendall)
- 6.11 - James Conner (Jake)
- 6.12 - Alvin Kamara (Marcas)
Seeing JSN drafted next to Lockett makes me smile. We have a tendency to favor the new player, but it's just as likely they both succeed in 2023.
Marquise Goodwin and Dee Eskridge won't beat out Smith-Njigba for looks. At the same time, the former Buckeye can still display his YAC ability and earn red-zone looks without eating into Lockett's production. I'll take both at cost.
But as the early rounds come to an end, let's see which team has the best roster through six picks. I lean towards balance at the core positions (RB and WR) with at least one high-end option at the onesie spots. And, it looks like Jake and I are on the same wavelength.
Despite starting strong at WR, Jake still managed to pick two RBs we can pencil in for most of their team's carries. Plus, Alexander Mattison and James Conner have both earned work in the passing game. With Mark Andrews to lock up the TE spot, Jake only needs a QB to be a weekly menace for the rest of the league.
Seventh Round
- 7.01 - Dalvin Cook (Marcas)
- 7.02 - Trevor Lawrence (Jake)
- 7.03 - Jordan Addison (Kendall)
- 7.04 - Dallas Goedert (Waz)
- 7.05 - George Pickens (Jonathan)
- 7.06 - Michael Thomas (Cooter)
- 7.07 - Darren Waller (Dwain)
- 7.08 - Jahan Dotson (Freedman)
- 7.09 - Quentin Johnston (Ian)
- 7.10 - Rachaad White (Geoff)
- 7.11 - Treylon Burks (Peter)
- 7.12 - Isiah Pacheco (McCuen)
Whew! Jake nabbed Trevor Lawrence at QB8 to complete his weekly starting roster. He might struggle with depth, but he likely won't have to make many changes to his starters. Kendall might not either.
She had three WRs through six rounds but picked up Jordan Addison at the start of the seventh. Like Jaxon Smith-Njigbba, Addison fills a much-needed role in the Vikings' offense. T.J. Hockenson quickly took over as Kirk Cousins's primary option in obvious passing situations, but the veteran QB fell behind the league in attempts at or past the first-down marker.
Addison's after-the-catch ability fits with Cousins's style and is another option to work with Justin Jefferson. As Kendall's WR4, he's a great stash to keep on the bench until we see how quickly he integrates into the Vikings' offense.
After tweets like this, I wasn't surprised to see Dwain draft Darren Waller.
Last time we saw a healthy Waller, he had a larger target share (20.5%) than Travis Kelce (19.7%). Now, he's in an offense where his biggest competition for looks are a former practice squad WR and a fifth-round receiver. Even with the Giants' preference to run the ball (22nd in PROE), Waller should be the main option and a top TE target in PPR leagues.
Eighth Round
- 8.01 - Pat Freiermuth (McCuen)
- 8.02 - Javonte Williams (Peter)
- 8.03 - Anthony Richardson (Geoff)
- 8.04 - David Montgomery (Ian)
- 8.05 - Gabe Davis (Freedman)
- 8.06 - James Cook (Dwain)
- 8.07 - Elijah Moore (Cooter)
- 8.08 - Zay Flowers (Jonathan)
- 8.09 - Brandin Cooks (Waz)
- 8.10 - Courtland Sutton (Kendall)
- 8.11 - AJ Dillon (Jake)
- 8.12 - Kadarius Toney (Marcas)
It's fair to be cautious with Javonte Williams. And Peter paired the third-year rusher with Jonathan Taylor to solidify his RB spots. Regardless it sounds like he's ready to resume his RB1-like workload.
If Williams can avoid a “JK Dobbins situation”, Williams' eighth-round ADP will look like the biggest value of the offseason. Dwain's pick doesn't offer the same upside, but James Cook may not have as limited a role as some think.
Even I projected Damien Harris for a short-yardage or early-down role. And with his 216-pound frame, might earn him a crack or two to save Josh Allen from himself. But Cook displayed similar rushing metrics in his rookie season. And we already know he's a better receiver. So, barring injury, Dwain likely made the right call in prioritizing the Bills RB1.
Ninth Round
- 9.01 - Antonio Gibson (Marcas)
- 9.02 - Rashod Bateman (Jake)
- 9.03 - Samaje Perine (Kendall)
- 9.04 - JuJu Smith-Schuster (Waz)
- 9.05 - Deshaun Watson (Jonathan)
- 9.06 - Jamaal Williams (Cooter)
- 9.07 - Zach Charbonnet (Dwain)
- 9.08 - Rashaad Penny (Freedman)
- 9.09 - Brain Robinson (Ian)
- 9.10 - Jameson Williams (Geoff)
- 9.11 - Skyy Moore (Peter)
- 9.12 - Odell Beckham (McCuen)
I can feel the hope in each one of these picks. There's weekly upside in almost every one of them.
Antonio Gibson indicated he'll take over the JD McKissic role in an offense we can expect to have a higher passing rate with OC Eric Bienemy. Tacking on Gibson as Marcas' fourth RB gives him flexibility after avoiding the position until the fifth round.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is already standing out in camp with the slot role on lock. Coincidentally, Mac Jones targeted the interior on 37.6% of his attempts last season. He's an easy WR3 or WR4 target. And there's still some hope left for one of Kansas City's WRs.
Kadarius Toney's injury notwithstanding, Skyy Moore has the profile to take on a larger role in the Chiefs' offense. With the Chiefs ranking first in PROE with Patrick Mahomes under center, Moore's situation is worth the ninth-round cost.
Tenth Round
- 10.01 - Jakobi Meyers (McCuen)
- 10.02 - Tua Tagovailoa (Peter)
- 10.03 - Damien Harris (Geoff)
- 10.04 - Devon Achane (Ian)
- 10.05 - Evan Engram (Freedman)
- 10.06 - Nico Collins (Dwain)
- 10.07 - Tyler Boyd (Cooter)
- 10.08 - Khalil Herbert (Jonathan)
- 10.09 - Allen Lazard (Waz)
- 10.10 - Jonathan Mingo (Kendall)
- 10.11 - Kendre Miller (Jake)
- 10.12 - Tyler Allgeier (Marcas)
If there's any QB that can leapfrog into the top tier, Peter knew who it was.
Tua Tagovailoa was the QB8 in PPG through Week 12. He had already missed two games, and Tua would miss two more to close out the season. But his absence wasn't the only issue.
Miami's star LT Terron Armstead went down in Week 12 and dealt with a torn pectoral muscle for the rest of the season. As a result, Tua's play took a dive, and his injuries didn't help the situation. But with everyone back healthy, the offense ranked top 10 in EPA per play and passing yards per game can push Tua back into the QB1 conversation.
But if you can't draft an upside QB, the main goal this late in the draft is adding depth.
Dwain tagged Nico Collins as his WR5 and there's a chance the Texans' third-year receiver can give us top-24 spike weeks with functional QB play.
Collins functioned as the team's X-receiver in ‘22. And without Brandin Cooks (88 targets), Chris Moore (72), Jordan Akins (49), and Phillip Dorsett (39) on the team, Collins walks into a fantasy-friendly situation. Let’s assume C.J. Stroud comes into his own as the team's QB and Collins benefits from the improvement under center.
Eleventh Round
- 11.01 - Rashee Rice (Marcas)
- 11.02 - Romeo Doubs (Jake)
- 11.03 - David Njoku (Kendall)
- 11.04 - Jerick McKinnon (Waz)
- 11.05 - Elijah Mitchell (Jonathan)
- 11.06 - Aaron Rodgers (Cooter)
- 11.07 - Tank Bigsby (Dwain)
- 11.08 - Jaylen Warren (Freedman)
- 11.09 - Michael Gallup (Ian)
- 11.10 - Dak Prescott (Geoff)
- 11.11 - Roschon Johnson (Peter)
- 11.12 - Adam Thielen (McCuen)
Freedman taking Jaylen Warren at the backend of the 11th round caught my eye. As Freedman's RB5, he'd be insulated from having to deal with Najee Harris's 18.4 touches per game. Warren may be a priority stash in drafts, but his best-ball ADP has a bit of a wish-casting element to it.
Harris removed the plate in his foot after his Lisfranc injury around Week 7. But Warren couldn't carve out any more work for himself despite Harris still being on the mend. Drafters may need to rethink their approach to the Pittsburgh backfield regardless of how strong Warren's rookie season looked on paper. But in managed leagues, it's as simple as letting his ADP work in your favor.
Let's do a vibes check on the squads before we get into the final few rounds. I mentioned Jake having a strong start, but I wanted to contrast his roster with another potential contender.
Jake and Dwain highlighted the dichotomy in draft strategies. They both drafted top options at the onesies while filling out elite options and depth in their core spots. But, of course, they went about it differently.
Jake's balanced approach may appeal to most drafters. You'd feel confident setting his lineup most weeks. Other than bye weeks, you're good. But feeling safe before roster lock doesn't always guarantee you a win.
Dwain's ZeroRB-like strategy is a swing for the fences. In PPR leagues, he's beating his opponents over the head with WR targets and air yards. But his decision about starting any of his RBs may cost him a win or two.
Regardless, both are viable ways to take down your league. It all comes down to your risk tolerance and how much you trust your GM skills on a weekly basis.
