2023 NFL Mock Draft. Every pick from a fantasy & betting perspective.
- 1.) Carolina Panthers - QB, CJ Stroud, Ohio State, Jr.
- 2.) Houston Texans - QB, Bryce Young, Alabama, Jr.
- 3.) Tennessee Titans - QB, Anthony Richardson, Florida, Jr.
- 4.) Indianapolis Colts - QB, Will Levis, Kentucky, Sr.
- 5.) Seattle Seahawks - EDGE, Will Anderson, Alabama, Jr.
- 6.) Detroit Lions - EDGE, Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech, Sr.
- 7.) Las Vegas Raiders - CB, Christian Gonzalez, Oregon, RS So.
- 8.) Atlanta Falcons - RB, Bijan Robinson, Texas, Jr.
- 9.) Chicago Bears - OT, Broderick Jones, Georgia, RS So.
- 10.) Philadelphia Eagles- DT, Jalen Carter, Georgia, Jr..
- 11.) Arizona Cardinals- OT, Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State. Jr.
- 12.) Houston Texans - WR, Jaxon Smith-Njigba., Ohio State. Jr.
- 13.) New York Jets - OT, Peter Skoronski, Northwestern, Jr.
- 14. ) New England Patriots - CB, Devon Witherspoon, Illinois, Sr.
- 15.) Green Bay Packers - EDGE, Nolan Smith, Georgia, Sr.
- 16.) Washington Commanders - CB, Joey Porter, Penn State, RS Jr.
- 17.) Pittsburgh Steelers - OT, Darnell Wright, Tennessee, Sr.
- 18.) Detroit Lions - WR, Quentin Johnston, TCU, Jr.
- 19.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - S, Brian Branch, Alabama, Jr.
- 20.) Seattle Seahawks - EDGE, Myles Murphy, Clemson, Jr.
- Miami Dolphins - Pick Forfeited
- 21.) Los Angeles Chargers - WR, Zay Flowers, Boston College, Sr.
- 22.) Baltimore Ravens - WR, Jordan Addison, USC, Jr.
- 23.) Minnesota Vikings - WR, Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee, Jr.
- 24.) Jacksonville Jaguars, CB, Deonte Banks, Maryland, Jr.
- 25.) New York Giants - WR, Josh Downs, North Carolina, Jr.
- 26.) Dallas Cowboys - TE, Dalton Kincaid, Utah, Sr.
- 27.) Buffalo Bills - LB, Drew Sanders, Arkansas, Jr.
- 28.) Cincinnati Bengals - TE, Michael Mayer, Notre Dame, Jr.
- 29.) New Orleans Saints - DL, Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh, RS Jr.
- 30. ) Philadelphia Eagles - EDGE, Lukas Van Ness, Iowa, RS-So.
- 31.) Kansas City Chiefs - OT, Dawand Jones, Ohio State, Sr.
Presenting a finely crafted first-round mock draft that considers many factors, including betting odds and teams' drafting history, while pulling the curtain up on draft rumors and smoke screens. A comprehensive breakdown of how the first round could unfold, all while offering valuable insights into the impact on fantasy and betting.
1.) Carolina Panthers - QB, CJ Stroud, Ohio State, Jr.
- 6’3, 214lbs, 21 years old
- Rookie Rank: QB:2, Superflex: 3
While Stroud is my number one QB in the draft there is no bias involved in this selection. The Panthers traded away multiple first-round picks and D.J. Moore, knowing Stroud was their guy.
Yesterdays Chris Mortenson “report”moved the odds back down to -130, however that report was misrepresented and really for a mock draft.
Stroud will head to Carolina and find a bare cupboard.
The top options in this offense are D.J. Chark, Hayden Hurst, and Terrace Marshall. The Panthers will desperately need to add a playmaker for Stroud with their second-round pick.
Stroud is an avoid for me in year one in fantasy - as Ian Hartitz points out - successful rookie QB almost always offers a rushing floor that Stroud has yet to show in his career.
2.) Houston Texans - QB, Bryce Young, Alabama, Jr.
- 6’0, 204lbs, 21 years old
- Rookie Rank: QB:3, Superflex: 6
If Bryce Young didn’t have size concerns he would likely be hearing his name called over Stroud to kick off the draft night. Our own Dwain McFarland called Bryce Young “the best pure passer in the class.”
Young currently sits at -130 to be the second overall pick and the exact order of Stroud and Young to start the draft is +110. QB chalk is often good chalk to eat and if I didn’t already have the opportunity to win 20 units on Stroud going first overall I would bet Young -130 to go second overall.
That said, you can still make the bet on BetMGM AND get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Claim your First Bet Offer and bet on Bryce Young below.
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Much like Stroud, Young is an avoid for me at ADP.
Young will struggle to pay off his current price tag as a rookie QB without the support of dynamic playmakers and a lack of rushing production to compensate for an anemic roster.
Even in rookie drafts, his Superflex ADP is higher than I have him ranked as my QB3.
Trade Alert: Tennessee Titans trade for the third overall pick.
3.) Tennessee Titans - QB, Anthony Richardson, Florida, Jr.
- 6’4, 244lbs, 20 years old
- Rookie Rank: QB:1, Superflex: 2
The Arizona Cardinals find themselves with one of the weakest rosters in the NFL, and with Kyler Murray's ACL injury, his availability to start the year remains in question.
It's not a matter of if, but rather when the Cardinals will trade their third overall pick.
According to insiders, the team is reportedly entertaining offers from multiple interested parties vying for the opportunity to snag the supremely athletic Anthony Richardson, who boasts the title of the most athletic QB in combine history.
Just one week ago, Anthony Richardson sat at +200 to be the third overall selection. As I am writing this, he is now -140.
His expected probability has risen from 33% to 58% to be the third overall selection.
Formerly Will Anderson was the massive public favorite for this selection - being mocked by the Cardinals in 87% of drafts which led to his draft prop number opening at 3.5, with each side being -115.
Since then the odds have soared to -400 to go over 3.5.
The Titans' interest in Anthony Richardson seems to be picking up steam, as evidenced by their odds to draft him on Fanduel plummeting from +850 to +200.
With a clear affinity for athletic quarterbacks, the Titans may see Richardson as a promising prospect who could benefit from learning behind Ryan Tannehill before taking the field.
Moreover, the Titans may be motivated to ensure that Richardson doesn't end up with a divisional rival in the Colts, which could drive them to pay a premium to climb up from the 11th pick to the third. As the saying goes, where there's smoke, there's fire, and it appears that the Titans are seriously considering making a move for the dynamic quarterback.
4.) Indianapolis Colts - QB, Will Levis, Kentucky, Sr.
- 6’4, 229lbs, 23 years old
- Rookie Rank: QB:4, Superflex: 9
Will Levis is one of the most polarizing Quarterbacks in this year's draft, and no, not because he puts mayo in his coffee or because of his body transformation photo.
He has the broadest range of opinions on where he could wind up on draft day.
The betting favorites are the Colts (+130), Raiders (+300), Titans (+650), and Buccaneers (+950); with those teams currently slated to pick between 4-19, the market is reflecting the uncertainty that is Levis’ landing spot.
Mar 4, 2023; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Kentucky quarterback Will Levis (QB08) participates in the broad jump at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Consistently compared to Josh Allen, Levis stands at 6’3 and 230 lbs and is the second most athletic QB in the class and perhaps the most under-appreciated fantasy asset in the 2023 draft class.
With 17 rushing touchdowns in his career and a 95th percentile broad jump, Levis poses both the explosiveness and willingness to use his legs to make him an immediate fantasy impact.
Currently the 34th QB off the board on Underdog, with an ADP of 140.8 he is the perfect high-upside QB in Big Board: Superflex drafts, especially if he lands in Indianapolis whose QB1 is currently Gardner Minshew.
5.) Seattle Seahawks - EDGE, Will Anderson, Alabama, Jr.
- 6’3, 253lbs, 21 years old
This is a dream for the Seattle Seahawks, with 4 QBs coming off the board to start the draft, leaving them the pick of the litter on all blue-chip non-QB prospects.
For the past two years, Will Anderson has proven himself to be the most dominant pass rusher in college football, boasting a whopping 14 more QB pressures than any other player.
This kind of pressure is precisely what the Seahawks desperately need, especially given their lackluster performance in this area in 2022, with a PFF pressure grade of just 65.1, leaving them ranked a disappointing 28th overall.
Will Anderson currently sits as the leader in the clubhouse to be the 5th overall pick with a betting line of +165 on DraftKings Sportsbook, and there is value in that number.
On top of the value on Anderson's number, DraftKings is also offering value in their welcome offer. By signing up for a new account below, you can place your first $5 pre-game moneyline bet and get $150 in bonus bets if it wins, no matter what the pre-game odds were. Win your first bet and turn around your $150 in bonus bets on Anderson by following the offer below.
6.) Detroit Lions - EDGE, Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech, Sr.
- 6’6, 271lbs, 22 years old
While the Lions wish Will Anderson would fall one more pick, there is an embarrassment of riches for them to select from here.
Tyree Wilson, Jalen Carter, Christian Gonzales, and Devon Witherspoon all make sense with this selection - which is why their odds for the first position drafted for the Lions are -125 for CB and -105 for a defensive lineman.
Sep 10, 2022; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars offensive tackle Reuben Unije (74) blocks Texas Tech Red Raiders defensive back Tyree Wilson (19) as he applies pressure to Houston Cougars quarterback Clayton Tune (3) in the first half at Jones AT&T Stadium and Cody Campbell Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
After all, the Lions' defense was nothing short of abysmal in 2022, giving up the most yards per game of any team in the league (392.4). But, a dominant front seven can quickly change that narrative.
Aidan Hutchinson looks like a home run pick from last year's draft, and if you combine him with Wilson, the highest-upside pass rusher in this class, the Lions would have one of the best young EDGE duos in football.
7.) Las Vegas Raiders - CB, Christian Gonzalez, Oregon, RS So.
- 6’1, 197lbs, 20 years old
While Jimmy Garrappolo is unlikely the QB the Raiders need to turn things around, there are no alternatives presently on the board.
The Raiders' defense needs reinforcement on the back end, having given up a staggering 242.9 passing yards per game during the 2022 season, the fourth most in the NFL.
Christian Gonzalez boasts a truly elite potential, and his impact on the field would be immediately felt.
With a remarkable 9.95 RAS score, Gonzales compares favorably to even Jalen Ramsey, and it's rare for athletes of this caliber to remain available for long on draft night.
With a prop line of 6.5 - Gonzales is lined perfectly and offers no value in the betting market.
8.) Atlanta Falcons - RB, Bijan Robinson, Texas, Jr.
- 5’11, 215lbs, 21 years old
- Rookie Rank: RB:1, Superflex: 1
While I would not select a running back in the top 10, I am not in charge of picking for the Atlanta Falcons.
As ESPN’s Jordan Reid says in his latest mock draft “Since general manager Terry Fontenot and coach Arthur Smith took over in 2021, they have placed value on taking the best player available in Round 1.”
Robinson checks in as NFL Draft guru Daniel Jeremiah’s third overall player and would fit the model of the Falcons' recent draft history.
Robinson is a generational prospect with little to no holes in his game, and the Falcons run first mentality would be a dream fantasy landing spot.
The Falcons threw the ball 13.1% below expectations last season, the second-lowest PROE in football. That was with a stable of journeyman running backs and a 5th-round rookie in Tyler Allgeier, who is not the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson.
Robinson to the Falcons would nuke any value Allgeier has.
The Falcons have dropped from +3300 to +650 to be the landing spot for Robinson, and while the value is gone, we can all agree, he would look awesome in a Falcons jersey.
9.) Chicago Bears - OT, Broderick Jones, Georgia, RS So.
- 6’5, 311lbs, 21 years old
My favorite longshot bet currently on the board is Broderick Jones to be the first offensive lineman to be drafted at +500 on Fanduel Sportsbook.
Jones is said to be higher on NFL team boards than the media. ESPN’s Jordan Reid says “Don't be surprised if Jones is the top offensive tackle off the board. I continue to hear his name in this range. General manager Ryan Poles covet length and physical traits, and Jones might have the most upside of the tackles in this class.”
A move to bolster the offensive line makes sense as the Bears continue to retool the offense around Justin Fields with the addition of D.J. Moore and D’Onta Foreman.
As Kendall Valenzuela points out - the Bears are making major improvements this offseason.
This move makes almost as much sense for the Bears as betting it it does for you. With FanDuel Sportsbook's No Sweat First Bet, you can up to $1,000 refunded in free bets if your first bet does not win. Claim your offer below and place your bet today
10.) Philadelphia Eagles- DT, Jalen Carter, Georgia, Jr..
- 6’3, 314lbs, 21 years old
The rich get richer as the Eagles land Jalen Carter, the top prospect on many experts' board prior to his off-field incident this offseason.
The Eagles sit at -150 to draft a defensive lineman with their first pick after successfully retaining Darius Slay and James Bradberry in free agency.
However, they lost multiple defensive starters and needed to retool on defense.
The addition of Carter to the team is a home run for the Eagles.
Given his impressive track record, he will pair exceptionally well with his former Georgia teammate and Eagles' 2022 first-round pick, Jordan Davis.
Carter currently sits at +650 to be selected by the Eagles.
11.) Arizona Cardinals- OT, Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State. Jr.
- 6’6, 313lbs, 21 years old
After trading back and picking up multiple first-round picks in the future, the Cardinals begin the long rebuilding process.
The Cardinals have major holes on both sides of the ball, but Johnson Jr. offers versatility at a premium position. He can play both tackle and guard and gives Kyler Murray some much need protection.
With the long road of rebuilding ahead, the Cardinals take the best player on the board who can be a foundation piece for years to come.
12.) Houston Texans - WR, Jaxon Smith-Njigba., Ohio State. Jr.
- 6’0, 196lbs, 21 years old
- Rookie Rank: WR:1, Superflex: 5
If the WR rookie super model has shown us anything, its that this is a home run pick for the Texans.
Smith-Njigba is Dwain’s clear-cut WR1, and for great reason.
Despite missing most of the 2023 season due to injury, Smith-Njigba's sophomore year was a truly dominant display of his abilities.
Widely known for his dynamic route running, he has also showcased his exceptional change acceleration and change of direction skills, evidenced by his 97th percentile 20-yard shuttle and 96th percentile 3-cone results - both considered elite benchmarks.
Per PFF data, the Ohio State product delivered a 15-plus yard reception on 34% of his plays, which ranks in the 92nd percentile since 2017.
This is a dream fantasy landing spot, with both short and long-term upside.
The Houston Texans, despite lacking an experienced quarterback, boast the draft's premier pure passer in Bryce Young, and with no major contenders in Smith-Njigba's path for securing the team's target lead, he is poised for success.
The Texans' current WR roster, featuring Robert Woods, Nico Collins, Noah Brown, and (hopefully) John Metchie, is arguably the weakest in the league, creating an ideal scenario for Smith-Njigba to claim a top-15 workload from the outset.
Smith-Njigba is currently +400 to be drafted by the Texans, his shortest odds, and -175 to be the first WR off the board. While both hit in this mock draft, there is enough debate with this WR class among NFL executives that neither bet offers value.
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13.) New York Jets - OT, Peter Skoronski, Northwestern, Jr.
- 6’4, 313lbs, 21 years old
The Jets bring the New Jersey native Peter Skoronski home to help protect their soon-to-be QB, Aaron Rodgers.
The Jets are playing in a two-year window, and with plenty of future draft capital likely heading to Green Bay, hitting on this pick at a premium position is critical to their future.
The odds agree that the position most needed for the Jets is the offensive line, as they are currently -260 in that market.
With 38-year-old Duane Brown and oft-injured Mehki Becton the projected starters, both tackles have major question marks. In addition, last year's major free agent signing, Laken Tomlinson, was a complete bust his first year.
Preseason All-American Skoronski brings much-needed versatility to the Jets' offensive front.
He tested as an elite athlete and dominated in the Big Ten, but his 4th percentile arm length has some teams questioning if he is a guard or tackle at the next level.
The Jets need both, so he first in perfectly.
14. ) New England Patriots - CB, Devon Witherspoon, Illinois, Sr.
- 5’11, 181lbs, 22 years old
The run on Big Ten players continues, with Witherspoon as the fourth straight player from the conference to be selected.
With five total players off the board, the draft is shaping out for over 8.5 players in the Big Ten to be drafted (-210).
Witherspoon would break the mold for the Patriots, who, under Bill Bellicheck, haven’t selected a corner higher than 27th overall since 2010.
However, the Patriots are also not often picking in the top 15, so I am willing to throw that trend out.
Witherspoon is Daniel Jerimiah’s 6th overall prospect, and the value and need are too good to pass up for the Patriots.
So far this offseason, Witherspoon has been the most popular selection in mock drafts, heading to New England 26% of the time.
15.) Green Bay Packers - EDGE, Nolan Smith, Georgia, Sr.
- 6’2, 238lbs, 22 years old
The Packers should feel very fortunate to have Nolan Smith still on the board.
If Jalen Carter had not fallen to the Eagles at pick 10, he would have been the likely selection there.
Smith himself said that the Eagles are a “perfect fit” and would be a “dream come true."
Oct 8, 2022; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs linebacker Nolan Smith (4) tackles Auburn Tigers running back Tank Bigsby (4) at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports.
It's not every day that a player of Smith's caliber is available for selection with the 15th overall pick.
A former number one overall high-school prospect in 2019, Smith's performance during testing was off the charts, highlighted by his remarkable 99th percentile 10-yard split, 40-yard dash, 98th percentile vertical jump, and 95th percentile broad jump results, a testament to his phenomenal athletic prowess.
Although his sack production may have been less than desired, his numerous tackles for losses and disruptive plays demonstrate his value on the field.
Moreover, the Green Bay Packers have a proven track record of selecting underperforming freak athletes who were once the top recruits in the country, exemplified by the likes of Rashan Gary.
16.) Washington Commanders - CB, Joey Porter, Penn State, RS Jr.
- 6’2, 193lbs, 22 years old
If you are wondering, yes, this is the son former NFL star. Four-time all-pro, Joey Porter. NFL genes are often appreciated within NFL circles, but Porter is more than just the son of an NFL legend.
Porter is a long, rangy athlete, with a size and speed combination rarely seen at the position. While his ball skills leave something to be desired, he allowed just one play of 15+ yards in 2023 per PFF.
The Commanders' biggest need is likely a new owner, but that is not something you can draft, so they will have to settle to continue to build up a stellar defense.
17.) Pittsburgh Steelers - OT, Darnell Wright, Tennessee, Sr.
- 6’5, 333lbs, 21 years old
Darnell Wright is a mountain of a man who has been dominating the SEC since earning first-team all-freshman team.
A five-star recruit, Wright has lived up to the hype finishing his senior year strong. He did not allow a sack or pressure against Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson - three of the nation's top defenses.
With the Pittsburgh Steelers in need of protecting their 2022 first-round pick Kenny Pickett, selecting an offensive lineman was the most logical choice.
Unfortunately, the three top cornerbacks were already off the board, deciding to bolster their offensive line even more pressing.
The position of the pick for the Steelers is currently led by cornerback at +120, but given the circumstances, prioritizing an offensive lineman (+150) seems to be the most sensible course of action.
You can bet on the Steelers to make the sensible choice on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can also get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet (a pre-game moneyline bet of at least $5) wins. Claim yours below.
18.) Detroit Lions - WR, Quentin Johnston, TCU, Jr.
- 6’2, 208lbs, 21 years old
- Rookie Rank: WR:2, Superflex: 7
When it comes to X receivers in the draft, Johnston undoubtedly stands out as the cream of the crop, with no other contender coming even remotely close. One of only three receivers standing 6’0 or taller on consensus top 100 boards, Johnston is the only X considered a first-round talent.
If the Lions were to secure Johnston's services, bettors could expect a hefty payout of 20-1 on FanDuel Sportsbook, making it one of the most intriguing picks in the draft.
With D.J. Chark out of the picture, the Lions are left with Amon-Ra St. Brown, a stud slot receiver, and Jameson Williams, a field-stretching asset.
Adding Johnston to the mix would complete the Lions' trio of receivers, whose skill sets complement each other perfectly.
One aspect that sets Johnston apart from the rest is his remarkable run-after-catch ability, making it nearly impossible for opposing teams to cover this trio successfully.
While NFL defenses would struggle to figure out this trio, so would fantasy players. Johnston would fall from his current 7th overall pick to becoming a fringe first-rounder in rookie drafts for me.
This pick would be a downgrade to each of the Lions’ three receivers compared to the current ADP, but would make Goff one of the most intriguing stabs as a mid-tier QB.
19.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - S, Brian Branch, Alabama, Jr.
- 5-11, 190lbs, 21 years old
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers find themselves in a peculiar situation, as they have Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask vying for the starting QB position.
While this could potentially position them to tank for Caleb Williams next year, their abundance of talent on both sides of the ball suggests that they may not be in the running for the #1 pick in the 2024 draft.
In fact, with the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin still on the roster, and the return of LB Lavonte David, it appears that the team is not resigned to a purgatory outlook.
Selecting Brian Branch in the upcoming draft would be a step in the right direction.
While he may not play a premium position, he fills a major need at both safety and slot corner, and is currently the second most consistent player mocked to the Buccaneers.
This pick not only helps the team immediately but also gives them the opportunity to start over in 2024 if they choose to do so.
20.) Seattle Seahawks - EDGE, Myles Murphy, Clemson, Jr.
- 6-4, 268lbs, 21 years old
Last season the Seahawks had major holes on the offensive line and addressed it by finding two starters at the tackle position. They have major holes on the defensive line this year and need to do the same.
A combination of Myles Muprhy and Will Anderson will give opposing QBs nightmares. Murphy is a highly decorated, top-five overall recruit, a freshman All-American who finished his career with 17.5 sacks.
He possesses an exceptional first step, an unwavering motor, and a potent bull rush tailor-made for Seattle's home-field advantage.
The thunderous noise generated by the 12th man has historically aided Seattle in achieving a staggering 9.15% sack rate at home, as opposed to a modest 5.56% sack rate on the road, making it an ideal fit for his style of play.
Miami Dolphins - Pick Forfeited
21.) Los Angeles Chargers - WR, Zay Flowers, Boston College, Sr.
- 5-9, 182lbs, 22 years old
- WR Rank: 4, Superflex Rank: 10
Zay Flowers was Boston College’s offense for the last three seasons. While he had an opportunity to transfer before his senior year and take advantage of NIL money he chose to stay at Boston College and set a career-best 47% dominator rating.
Per the rookie super model, his 47% dominator rating was the single best score of any receiver in this class in any year of their careers.
Flowers is a player that has been shooting up boards, recently ESPN’s Mel Kiper, ranked Flowers as his number 1 receiver in the 2023 class.
Oct 1, 2022; Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA; Boston College Eagles wide receiver Zay Flowers (4) reacts after scoring a touchdown during the first half against the Louisville Cardinals at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Flowers has the potential to be a valuable playmaker for Justin Herbert, bringing a much-needed boost to the Chargers' offense. His ability to line up across the field, stretch the field, and run after the catch makes him an ideal complement to Mike Williams.
While the Chargers appear to be a great fit for NFL success, it may be a challenge for Flowers to establish himself as a consistent fantasy asset in his rookie year. With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams already established as top targets, Flowers may find himself in a battle for weekly targets. However, it's worth noting that Joshua Palmer has proven himself capable of delivering big performances when either Williams or Allen are sidelined with injury, which is a known occurrence for both players.
Flowers starts the run of late-round one receivers, with 22-24 being his most likely landing spots, with WR needy teams aplenty in this range and a draft prop of 24.5, -190 to the under.
22.) Baltimore Ravens - WR, Jordan Addison, USC, Jr.
- 5-11, 173lbs, 21 years old
- WR Rank: 3, Superflex Rank: 8
The Ravens have found themselves in a mess of a situation where Lamar Jackson has requested a trade. The guaranteed money has been a sticking point in the negotiations for over a year now and not much seems likely to change.
It also seems improbable, as things stand, that the Ravens are willing to entertain a trade. To save the relationship they will not only have to get Jackson paid but get him some weapons as well.
Jordan Addison has the potential to be a game-changer for his new team and help mend any frayed relationships. His impressive resume as a true sophomore includes being awarded the coveted Biletnikoff Award, bestowed upon the nation's top receiver. After joining USC, he quickly became a favored target for quarterback Caleb Williams.
There is a ton to like about Addison and the fit in Baltimore. He had a 32% career dominator rating, earning 2.42 yards per target per team pass attempt throughout his career, the second-highest rate in the class. He played both inside and outside and showed a propensity to get open throughout his career, regardless of if he was at Pittsburgh or USC.
While Addison's abilities are noteworthy, there is a slight cause for concern regarding his lackluster combine performance. He weighed in at only 173 lbs, and his 4.49 40-yard dash led to an 18th percentile for weight-adjusted speed.
The Ravens move from Greg Roman, whose entire philosophy is built around the run, to Todd Monken who is built around the vertical passing game. The Ravens ranked 30th in passing plays of 25+ yards, and with Addison and Monken in the fold that is sure to improve.
23.) Minnesota Vikings - WR, Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee, Jr.
- 6-0, 176lbs, 21 years old
- WR Rank: 5, Superflex Rank: 11
Back-to-back Biletnikoff Award winners go off the board as Hyatt is the 5th receiver drafted in the first round. Betting over 4.5 WRs taken in round 1 (+230) is one of my favorite bets. There have been 17 first-round receivers in the last three drafts as the league continues to put a premium on the position.
Despite not hitting the desired 4.2s 40-yard dash time, Hyatt's on-field performance still merits attention. Although some of the initial hype may have subsided, he impressively clocked over 22mph multiple times during the season while playing for Tennessee. Additionally, his explosion testing scores in the 92nd percentile for vertical jump and 97th percentile for broad jump demonstrate his incredible athletic ability.
Tennessee fans on the sideline cheer as Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt (11) scores a touchdown during the NCAA college football game against Missouri on Saturday, November 12, 2022 in Knoxville, Tenn. Ut Vs Missouri
Speed is undoubtedly one of Hyatt's strong suits, as evident in his exceptional test scores and the fact that over a quarter of his targets came on passes of 20-plus yards down the field.
Getting the number one receiver on Lance Zierlien’s board to pair with the league's best receiver in Justin Jefferson will give defenses nightmares. Jefferson has not played with a true field stretcher since his days at LSU and Hyatt’s vertical presence should open things up.
While Hyatt would struggle to beat Jefferson or TJ Hockeson out for targets, his big play ability would provide spike weeks throughout the season and make him a value in best ball drafts.
24.) Jacksonville Jaguars, CB, Deonte Banks, Maryland, Jr.
- 6-0, 197lbs, 21 years old
This cornerback class is athletic and Deonte Banks is no exception. Running a 4.35 40-yard dash, with a 98th percentile broad jump, and 97th percentile vertical jump - Banks offers size and athleticism to the Jaguars.
Banks can come in and be a day-one starter, bolstering the Jaguars' 27th-ranked pass defense and creating a talented young tandem with Tyson Campbell.
25.) New York Giants - WR, Josh Downs, North Carolina, Jr.
- 5-9, 171lbs, 21 years old
- WR Rank: 6, Superflex Rank: 14
If the Giants are to build off last year's success with first your head coach Brian Daboll, they will need to add more playmakers. Adding Darren Waller was an excellent start, but the Giants' current WR room scares exactly no one.
Downs should come in and be the starter on day one in the slot for the Giants, replacing often-used Richie James, who finished the season with four straight 6+ target games.
While this is the high range of outcomes for Downs on draft day, his sophomore breakout season, when he posted a 3.49 YPTPA on a 40% target share, had him squarely in the first-round conversation.
From a fantasy perspective, this is a dream landing spot. Downs could lead wide receivers in targets and Daniel Jones’ desire to work underneath and middle of the field matches his game perfectly.
26.) Dallas Cowboys - TE, Dalton Kincaid, Utah, Sr.
- 6-3, 246lbs, 23 years old
- TE Ranking: 1, Superflex Ranking: 16
Dalton Kincaid is the first tight end off the board, cashing +175 tickets on FanDuel Sportsbook. This is a mispriced line as it is a true toss-up on who the first tight end off the board is between him and Mayer.
The Cowboys came into the offseason on a mission to add playmakers to their offense. They added veteran Brandin Cooks and are set to make Tony Pollard their feature back.
They did however lose Dalton Schultz who has long been the security blanket for Dak Prescott. This has their odds of drafting a tight end with their first pick at +175 - the shortest of any position.
There has been a ton of smoke surrounding Kincaid and the Cowboys, and for good reason. Kincaid has “some of the best ball skills I’ve ever seen from a TE prospect” per Mike Renner of PFF.
While Kincaid is a dynamic route runner and comes in as an older prospect, fantasy expectations should be tempered in year one. As Ian Hartitz points out in his age analysis
“Only three rookie TEs (2013 Jordan Reed, 2017 Evan Engram, 2021 Kyle Pitts) managed to put up top-12 production as rookies over the last decade, while only 10 second-year players have earned this distinction. “
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27.) Buffalo Bills - LB, Drew Sanders, Arkansas, Jr.
- 6-4, 235lbs, 21 years old
The Buffalo Bills suffered a significant blow to their defense this offseason with the departure of Trumaine Edmunds, a long-time anchor of their linebacker corps. Edmunds' departure comes on the heels of him signing a lucrative multi-year contract with the Chicago Bears.
Edmunds and fellow linebacker Matt Milano have been an indispensable duo for the Bills, demonstrating exceptional range in coverage and contributing significantly to the team's defensive prowess.
Drew Sanders is a big, rangy, athletic linebacker who can play on all three downs and replace Edmunds from day one.
Sanders is +150 to be the first linebacker off the board, and the Bills' most likely position per odds is Linebacker at +200. If he is on the board, I expect him to be the pick.
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28.) Cincinnati Bengals - TE, Michael Mayer, Notre Dame, Jr.
- 6-4, 249lbs, 21 years old
- TE Ranking: 2, Superflex Ranking: 25
The Bengals continue to add weapons for Joe Burrow, replacing Hayden Hurst with Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer.
Mayer is a former five-star recruit, a 2021 first-team AP All-American, and finished his career with over 2,000 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns in just three seasons.
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While Mayer lacks ideal athleticism, he compares favorably to Zach Ertz, with his knack for getting open and providing major run-after-the-catch upside.
From a fantasy aspect, this is a low-end spot for Mayer. While he would be in a top-five NFL offense, he would be fourth at best on the totem pole, with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins set to consistently over 55% of the teams' targets.
Mayer would be a late-round dart throw on Joe Burrow teams only in year one.
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29.) New Orleans Saints - DL, Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh, RS Jr.
- 6-0, 281lbs, 21 years old
An undersized defensive lineman from Pittsburgh, who tested as a freak athlete. Stop me if you have heard this one before.
While Kancey will draw Aaron Donald comps due to his school and size, his athletic testing was off the charts. Running a 4.67 40-yard dash at 280 lbs puts him in the 99th percentile of all defensive linemen ever.
With 14.5 sacks in the last two seasons, he is an attacking one-gap defender who would give New Orleans an interior pass rusher, something they desperately need. Last year they ranked 26th in PFF pass-rush grade as a unit.
30. ) Philadelphia Eagles - EDGE, Lukas Van Ness, Iowa, RS-So.
- 6-4, 272lbs, 21 years old
If the Eagles walk away with both Jalen Carter and Lukas Van Ness NFL teams should be very worried. He is an absolute steal for the Eagles here, per grinding the mocks he has an EDP of 16.5
Van Ness dominated with his strength in college, consistently relying on his bull rush, Van Ness will need to add finesse to his game at the next level. His 80th percentile 3-cone time suggests he has the athleticism to do just that.
Adding a powerful edge rusher, the Eagles would be set at the defensive line position for years to come and be able to build off a front that became the first team ever to have four players with 10+ sacks.
31.) Kansas City Chiefs - OT, Dawand Jones, Ohio State, Sr.
- 6-8, 374lbs, 22 years old
While I would love for the Chiefs to add another receiver, there simply isn’t one worth considering here with the top 6 off the board. In a perfect world, Jalin Hyatt’s vertical ability would be a perfect fit.
Last offseason the Chiefs offered LT Orlando Brown 6-years 139 million dollars. Brown is a mountain of a man at 6’7 and 345lbs, and the Chiefs replace a mountain with Everest himself.
Dwand Jones 6-8, 374 lbs is a massive human being. They did sign Jawaan Taylor this offseason, but RT Lucas Neing is a replacement-level player. Without a weapon for Mahomes, the Chiefs continue to build up his protection.