2023 Team Preview: Arizona Cardinals

Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone: It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.

What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Arizona Cardinals, looking at key questions like:

1. How many games should we expect Kyler Murray to play in this season?
2. Is James Conner fantasy football’s cheapest workhorse RB?
3. Does Marquise Brown have WR1 upside as the passing game’s unquestioned No. 1 option?

Every fantasy-relevant player from the Cardinals will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.

Notable offseason moves

From the front office, to the coaching staff, to the roster: Every 2023 NFL team will be different than its 2022 version.

The Kliff Kingsbury era is over. New head coach Jonathan Gannon is the new man in charge after leading the Eagles defense over the past two seasons. He’s joined by offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis, who were most recently the Browns QB coach and Eagles LB coach, respectively.

It’s tough to know just how much of the Browns offense Petzing plans on installing in Arizona, but it’d make sense if he maintains a somewhat similar philosophy as Kevin Stefanski considering the pair were together from 2014 to 2022 in both Minnesota and Cleveland.

Stefanski has regularly established the damn run in his four seasons calling plays.

• 2022 (Browns): -7.6% pass rate over expected (No. 28)
• 2021 (Browns): -4.9% (No. 26)
• 2020 (Browns): -3.4% (No. 23)
• 2019 (Vikings): -8.4% (No. 32)

Those squads also posted not-so-fantasy-friendly ranks in neutral situation pace of 23rd, 24th, 21st, and 10th over the span.

Throw in the uncertainty surrounding Kyler Murray’s (knee) health, and it wouldn’t be surprising if this passing game struggles to enable more than one high-end fantasy asset in 2023.

Additionally, the Cardinals have made plenty of changes to their roster. The following QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs have either joined or left Arizona in some way, shape, or form this offseason:

• QB: Third-string QB Trace McSorley is out, former Texans QB/Taysom Hill-sort-of-thing Jeff Driskel (1-year, $1.08 million) is in courtesy of a minimally guaranteed deal.
• RB: Backup Darrel Williams remains an unrestricted free agent.
• WR: One of the biggest moves of the offseason came in the form of the Cardinals releasing longtime stud WR DeAndre Hopkins. He remains a free agent for the time being. Their WR room overhaul also included Chosen Anderson joining the Dolphins and A.J. Green retiring. The front office did sign former Colts and Eagles WR Zach Pascal (2 years, $4.5 million) to a small deal with $1.5 million guaranteed to help provide depth.
• TE: Backup TEs Maxx Williams and Stephen Anderson both remain unrestricted free agents.

It’d make sense if the insertion of Ohio State OT Paris Johnson Jr. (1.06) into PFF’s reigning 24th-ranked offensive line helps all fantasy-relevant parties involved. Otherwise, the only skill-position talent added to the roster comes in the form of Stanford WR Michael Wilson (3.94) and Houston QB Clayton Tune (5.139). 

The history of draft capital makes it far easier to be optimistic about Wilson’s career outlook than Tune’s, but the rookie QB surprisingly has a chance to start out of the gate while Kyler Murray (ACL) is recovering from his major knee injury.

QB: Kyler Murray (Ian’s QB21), Clayton Tune (QB36), Colt McCoy (QB37)

Any discussion about Murray’s path to 2023 upside comes down to when he can return from his Grade 3 ACL tear, which was suffered on December 12 of last year.

There are a number of sources with information on the matter.

1. Team owner Michael Bidwill stated: “I think (his return) is going to be earlier than this midseason, so hopefully, it’s toward the beginning of the season.”
2. Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon said Murray made “good progression” in April after being cleared to resume workouts.
3. Dr. Edwin Porras suggests that his recovery will be (at least) 9 months and potentially 10 to 11 months before he’s rushing like normal.
4. Dr. Jeff Mueller also noted we might not see his rushing upside return until late 2023 or 2024.

The concern that most seem to have surrounding Murray is the Cardinals’ potential status as the single-worst roster in football. A midseason return might be in the fold…until the team is 1-7 and already looking ahead to 2024 and perhaps life with a certain USC signal-caller under center.

Nov 6, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) throws a pass to Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Rondale Moore (4) against the Seattle Seahawks during the first half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

There’s an awful lot of dead cap space (at least $13 million through 2026) regardless of if the Cardinals want to cut or trade Murray before or after June 1 at any point over the next four years. This isn’t to suggest they can’t; just don’t be so quick to assume the franchise won’t try to get something out of their $230 million investment in 2023 should he be healthy enough to suit up.

Simply the potential for Murray to start double-digit games in 2023 makes him quite the potential late-round darling in fantasy land due to the uncertainty around the situation. There simply isn’t much of a track record of the 25-year-old QB playing professional football and NOT racking up fantasy points.

• 2022: 18.2 fantasy points per game (QB7)
• 2021: 21.5 (QB4)
• 2020: 23.7 (QB4)
• 2019: 17.8 (QB11)

Presently priced with QB22 ADP (pick 169), Murray is going just ahead of Kenny Pickett and behind guys like Derek Carr and Jordan Love, who should wake up if they even dream of offering Murray’s best-case fantasy ceiling.

I LOVE throwing late-round darts at Murray in best ball land; he’s a proven upside QB1 when healthy and being drafted after the top-50 RBs, top-75 WRs, and top-20 TEs are already off the board. If unwilling to spend a top-five-round pick on the true dual-threat aliens at the top of the draft, guys like Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, and Murray offer the best potential to provide that sort of upside at a discount.

One final note: Don’t discount Tune’s ability to provide at least a little fantasy upside even if his real-life ability takes a while to come along. I wrote the following on him when breaking down the rushing upside of the incoming rookie QBs earlier this offseason:

“Has a nose for the end zone and trails only Richardson in RAS score (9.81) in the 2023 class. His 6.89-second three-cone time led all QBs at the combine and demonstrates his short-area quickness. Unlike several of these QBs, Tune boasts the requisite size (6’2, 220 pounds) to theoretically handle a robust rushing role in the pros.”

You should never draft Tune—especially while it’s not even guaranteed he starts in place of Murray—but his archetype suggests there could be some DFS/streamer potential here.

RB: James Conner (Ian’s RB20), Keaontay Ingram (RB93)

Conner has never played an injury-free season, although 2019 (10 games) was the only time he didn’t suit up for at least 13 contests. He’ll be 28 years old in May; the age cliff is near. Throw in a descending Cardinals offense, and it’s fair to not exactly be over the moon about the veteran’s chances of booming in 2023.

Of course, that little thing called volume could (again) help lift Conner to rather awesome fantasy heights. It’s not a given that new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is willing to give Conner the same sort of every-down role that Kliff Kingsbury was, but at a minimum he’s proven capable of working across all three downs at a solid level. 

The Cardinals left Conner on the field for at least 90% of the offense’s snaps in five games last season; usually reaching the 60% mark is good enough for fantasy purposes.

Only Austin Ekeler (38) has scored more TDs than Conner (26) over the past two seasons. You don’t need more than one hand to count the number of RBs who join him inside the position’s top-12 scorers in PPR points per game over the past two seasons:

• Ekeler
• Conner
• Christian McCaffrey
• Derrick Henry
• Joe Mixon
• Nick Chubb

This time last year Conner was priced as the ADP RB15 (pick 35). Now? He’s the RB28 (pick 88).

The WR avalanche in best ball land comes in a hurry and could make it tough to always prioritize Conner, but at this point 45 WRs are typically off the board before he’s drafted. 

In past years Conner’s archetype would be a risky third- or fourth-round pick; don’t be afraid to jump on the opportunity to obtain a true three-down workhorse in Round 8.

Ingram is also a quality late-round dart in his own right. There simply aren’t many backfields out there available this cheap WITH the potential for a true workhorse to emerge.

You can start grabbing your Conner shares on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up. Sign up below and start drafting Conner today!

WR: Marquise Brown (Ian’s WR29), Rondale Moore (WR61), Greg Dortch (WR101), Michael Wilson (WR120), Zach Pascal (WR133)

Brown’s start to 2022 as the Cardinals’ undisputed No. 1 WR during DeAndre Hopkins’s suspension was a sight to behold:

• Week 1: 4 receptions-43 yards-1 TD (6 targets)
• Week 2: 6-68-0 (11)
• Week 3: 14-140-0 (17)
• Week 4: 6-88-1 (11)
• Week 5: 8-78-1 (10)
• Week 6: 5-68-0 (9)

Overall, the artist known as Hollywood worked as the PPR WR5 before breaking his foot.

Read that last sentence again. Madness. Only Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, and Justin Jefferson had more PPR fantasy points than Brown during the first six weeks of his Cardinals career. His pre-injury pace: 122-1374-9—and he looked good doing it!

Things didn’t go as smoothly down the stretch for Brown or the rest of the Cardinals’ Kyler-less offense. This is unfortunately a potential reality to start the 2023 season as well.

The concern with betting too heavily on Brown is the fact that he did indeed struggle to put up the sort of high-end efficiency numbers that most top-end fantasy WRs also possess.

• PFF receiving grade: 69.6 (No. 45 among 80 qualified WR)
• Yards per route run: 1.44 (No. 46)
• Yards per reception: 10.6 (No. 62)
• Targets per route run: 0.209 (No. 29) 

Ultimately, I have Hollywood in the same tier as guys like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Drake London: Talented WRs who could struggle to consistently provide high-end fantasy goodness due to a worrisome situation under center. 

Of course, there’s at least a theoretical end in sight to Brown’s QB woes, making him a more than viable target with a still-low WR31 ADP (pick 61.1).

And then there’s Moore, who ripped off 7-92-1, 8-69-0, and 9-94-0 receiving lines before suffering a season-ending groin injury. Note that the second-year WR also dealt with hamstring and finger injuries during 2022.

While it wasn’t for long, Moore flashed the sort of high-end YAC ability that made him a second-round pick in the first place. It was also encouraging to see him spend plenty of time out wide (196 snaps) in addition to his usual time in the slot (253).

It’s not a given that Moore works ahead of Dortch, who put some fun YAC ability on tape himself. There’s also potential for Wilson to work as the new outside starter in two-WR sets considering his fellow day two draft capital and superior size. Maybe Pascal’s familiarity with Gannon leads to a role.

Overall, I don’t expect this passing game to enable more than one consistent upside fantasy option before Murray is back—Moore is most worthy of the late-round dart out of the group, but even then there’s potential for his new normal role to be more of the part-time variety than what we saw in the past. This is particularly true if OC Drew Petzing embraces two-TE sets and the run game in a similar manner as his longtime mentor Kevin Stefanski.

TE: Trey McBride (Ian’s TE29), Zach Ertz (TE33)

This situation is again incredibly dependent on injuries. While Ertz said he’s hoping to be ready for Week 1, the 32-year-old veteran is coming off late-season surgery to repair his ACL AND MCL.

It’s not like things were going all that great for Ertz before the injury, as only raw volume helped save fantasy production with a career-low 8.6 yards per reception. Overall, Ertz was one of just three TEs to average under six yards per target among 29 qualified players at the position.

Jan 8, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride (85) celebrates after the Cardinals scored a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers in the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Enter: McBride, who turns 24 in November. The rising second-year talent only caught 29 passes for 265 yards and a single score as a rookie, but that’s common at the position. Credit to McBride for at least managing to play an every-down role in the absence of Ertz; his 7-78-1 receiving line against the Falcons in Week 17 certainly came in handy during the fantasy championship.

Of course, OC Drew Petzing does come from a system that has regularly rotated bodies at the position. It wouldn’t be at all surprising if Ertz, McBride, and another more block-first option turn this into a committee of sorts.

Both TEs are dirt cheap in fantasy land, so I’m fine throwing darts at McBride in best-ball lineups that need three-plus players at the position. Still, caution should be entertained for the likely No. 3 pass-game option (at best) inside of what is shaping up to be one of the worst offenses in football.

2023 win total: 4.5 (-125 on the over)

The single-lowest win total in the NFL goes to the Cardinals, who limped to 5-10-1, 8-8, 11-6, and 4-13 finishes under Kingsbury’s tutelage.

The league’s reigning 31st-ranked scoring defense doesn’t figure to provide much help while the offense is likely forced to start the season with either Colt McCoy or a rookie QB under center. Not ideal!

This number is so low, but even a last-place schedule doesn’t give the Cardinals any games in which they are actually considered a favorite. Vegas projects Arizona to work as the league’s single-worst scoring offense. For these reasons, I’m taking under 4.5 wins for a franchise that could be all aboard the Caleb Williams hype train by November.

You can tail the under on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars as a bonus for signing up. Sign up below and start betting today!