Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone. It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Atlanta Falcons, looking at key questions like:
- Could Desmond Ridder emerge as a sneaky-solid late-round QB option?
- Just how high should rookie year expectations be for Bijan Robinson?
- Is there enough pass-game volume for both Drake London and Kyle Pitts to ball out?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the Falcons will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable Offseason Moves
From the front office to the coaching staff to the roster, every NFL team will be different in 2023 compared to their respective 2022 version.
Arthur Smith is back for this third season as the head coach after back-to-back 7-10 campaigns. Offensive coordinator Dave Ragone is also still by his side, although defensive coordinator Dean Pees has been replaced by former Saints defensive line coach/co-coordinator Ryan Nielsen.
Ultimately, Smith is the one calling plays here, and the man loves to run the football. This was true during his final two seasons as the Titans offensive coordinator and even more so last year after Matt Ryan was traded to the Colts.
- 2022 (Falcons): -13.7% pass rate over expected (No. 31); 32.5 seconds per play in neutral situations (No. 27)
- 2021 (Falcons): -1.1% (No. 13); 30.4 (No. 11)
- 2020 (Titans): -9.4% (No. 30); 28.6 (No. 3)
- 2019 (Titans): -6% (No. 30); 31.3 (No. 19)
Don’t count on Smith trusting Ridder to air it out in his second year after the team spent a top-10 pick on generational RB prospect Bijan Robinson. The Falcons profile as the most run-heavy offense in all of football entering 2023, but here’s to hoping they at least pick up the pace and move down the field with a sense of urgency like they did in 2020. But even that’s not a given.
Additionally, Atlanta has made plenty of changes to their roster since the start of free agency this offseason. The following QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs have either joined or left Atlanta in some way, shape, or form thus far:
- QB: 2022 starting QB Marcus Mariota will serve as Jalen Hurts’s backup in Philadelphia this season. The Falcons instead signed former Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke to a two-year, $14 million deal to back up Ridder.
- RB: None
- WR: The team juggled around their complementary options. Olamide Zaccheaus and Damiere Byrd both departed and were replaced by ex-Eagles/Raiders WR Mack Hollins (one year, $2.5 million), ex-Buccaneers field-stretcher Scotty Miller (one year, $1.1 million) and former Seahawks WR Penny Hart (one year, $1 million).
- TE: Anthony Firkser is now a member of the Patriots, while MyCole Pruitt remains a free agent. In a separate transaction, the Falcons traded for former-Titans (AKA Arthur Smith buddy) TE Jonnu Smith. The Patriots received a 2023 seventh-round pick in return.
Of course, the primary RB addition this offseason was Robinson (1.08) via the NFL Draft, and he sure looks to be every bit as good as you’ve heard he is. Robinson wound up being the only fantasy-relevant player drafted by Atlanta this year, although Syracuse OT Matthew Bergeron (2.38) figures to add depth to a stout offensive line that ranked fifth last year per Pro Football Focus (PFF).
QBs
- Desmond Ridder (Ian’s QB25)
- Taylor Heinicke (QB39)
Ridder has received the stamp of approval as the team’s starting QB since the beginning of the offseason. In fact, Heinicke even said so himself that “I’m going to try and be the best backup I can”.
It’s at least a little surprising that the Falcons chose to not even entertain the idea of a QB battle considering how Ridder’s four starts down the stretch of 2022 went. Not having a healthy Pitts in those games didn’t help, but Ridder didn’t exactly flash much in fantasy or real life aside from a nice Week 18 showing against a Buccaneers defense that chose to rest plenty of key starters most of the game.
- Week 15: 97 pass yards-0 TD-0 INT, 6 rushes-38 yards-0 TD, fantasy QB28
- Week 16: 218-0-0, 4-8-0, QB26
- Week 17: 169-0-0, 4-9-0, QB25
- Week 18: 224-2-0, 2-9-0, QB10
As a rookie, Ridder came in 30th in completion percentage over expected (-1%) and 34th in EPA per dropback (-0.05) among 47 qualifying QBs, so he really wasn't a good real life or fantasy QB. While there have been QBs who struggled as rookies and have gone on to enjoy success later in their careers, the history of draft capital tells us not to expect too much from QBs drafted outside of the first round…pretty much ever.
Over the last 10 years, these are the only QBs to post top-12 finishes in fantasy points per game (PPG) despite not originally having been drafted inside of the top-two rounds: Tony Romo, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Gardner Minshew, Tyrod Taylor, Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Nick Foles, Russell Wilson, and Josh McCown. Together, these QBs have accounted for just 25% of top-12 QB finishes over that span.
Jan 1, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder (4) passes against the Arizona Cardinals during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Of course, this is being fully baked into Ridder’s average draft position, as he’s the QB29 off the board and readily available in the final two rounds of best ball drafts.
Ridder's path to success would require more fully leaning into some of his underrated athletic tools, which includes a 4.52 40-yard dash time and a 98th-percentile SPARQ-X score. His four starts last season left a lot to be desired, but Ridder did average an impressive 43.6 rushing yards per game during his collegiate career at Cincinnati, and rushing production greatly increases a QB's fantasy floor and ceiling.
Ultimately, even a big leap forward in passing efficiency and decent rushing production could still keep Ridder a disappointing QB2 in fantasy with a few spike weeks here or there, similar to what Marcus Mariota was in 2022.
The decision to utilize the eighth overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft on an RB sure seems to point toward this once again being a run-first offense akin to what we saw last year. In such an offense, it should come as no surprise that Falcons QBs ranked 24th in expected fantasy PPG in 2022. Not great!
While Ridder is a viable best ball stacking partner thanks to his dirt cheap price and likelihood to provide double-digit starts, this ridiculously run-heavy offense is unlikely to give Ridder a path to a top-12 fantasy QB finish. That's even if Ridder can improve his passing efficiency from terrible to good, which remains a pretty big "if".
The dual-threat ability is there, but if waiting until the final rounds on a QB2 or QB3 in best ball, I still prefer Sam Howell at cost. Washington projects as a more pass-heavy offense than Atlanta, and Howell has demonstrated superior rushing production than Ridder from what we saw in college.
RBs
- Bijan Robinson (Ian’s RB3)
- Tyler Allgeier (RB43)
- Cordarrelle Patterson (RB59)
The Fantasy Life crew outlined the following strengths for Robinson in his dynasty rookie profile:
Generational prospect (seriously)
The 2022 All-American and Doak Walker Award winner finished fourth all-time in rushing at Texas, sandwiched between future Hall of Famer Jamaal Charles and current Hall of Famer Earl Campbell.
Robinson's production at Texas was due to a rare combination of size and speed, one that dreams are made of for RBs. But Robinson is more than just an elite athlete. On top of his superb acceleration and top-end speed, Robinson has excellent vision and contact balance.
As a result, Robinson can run through arm tackles, and he can make defenders miss in the open field, consistently showing the ability to stack moves. Per PFF, his 104 missed tackles forced last season led all college RBs, and 1,071 of Robinson's 1,575 rushing yards came after contact.
First-round draft capital
32 rookie RBs have posted top-24 PPR per-game production over the past 10 years (min. 8 games). 25 of 32 (78%) were selected inside the first three rounds, and 10 of the 12 first-round RBs drafted since 2015 racked up 197-plus touches in their debut campaign.
The Falcons didn’t draft Robinson to do anything other than feed him the rock.
The man can catch, too
In addition to being an outstanding runner, Robinson possesses elite traits as a pass-catcher. The three-down RB has a developed route tree, soft hands, and big play ability, so he can play across all three downs and never needs to come off the field.
Robinson would play 100% of the offense’s snaps every week if God turned off injuries and stamina.
Ultimately, it’s the second point on draft capital that locks Robinson in as a first-round pick in 2023 fantasy drafts of all shapes and sizes. The Texas product is set up to be Arthur Smith’s new Derrick Henry and profiles as one of the game’s few backs with a realistic chance of having a touch total that begins with the number “four” by the time the season is over.
I can’t get behind Robinson going ahead of Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler due to their projected receiving volume, but the rookie deserves to be right in the mix of the next tier alongside guys like Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Tony Pollard, and Josh Jacobs.
I do prefer Robinson at the top of this tier but haven’t been landing him much in best ball drafts due to my preference for Ekeler and top-tier WRs in Robinson's ADP range.
Of course, it’s not like the Falcons needed to add Robinson to the mix in the first place. After all, Tyler Allgeier racked up 1,174 total yards and four TDs as a rookie last year while posting the 10th-highest rate of missed tackles forced per touch of any RB in the last 10 years.
Credit to Allgeier for having over 100 yards in five separate games last season, but he already struggled to see a consistent full-time role with Patterson and even guys like Caleb Huntley and Avery Williams involved in 2022.
With Robinson presumably taking the majority of the touches in the Falcons' backfield, Allgeier is nothing more than an RB4 handcuff who shouldn’t be prioritized in drafts. If anything, I’d rather throw a last-round dart on Patterson in the hopes that he carves out a starting WR role instead and emerges as a top-four pass-game option for Atlanta.
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WRs
- Drake London (Ian’s WR28)
- Mack Hollins (WR101)
- Scotty Miller (WR117)
- KhaDarel Hodge (WR139)
London experienced a mini breakout down the stretch last year, ripping off 6-95-0, 7-70-0, 7-96-0, 5-47-0, and 6-120-0 receiving lines over the final five weeks of the season.
The route-running finesse and yards-after-catch ability that London displayed was scarily good for a WR who's 6'4 and 213 lbs.
London will be just 22 years old this coming season, so it's easy to expect even more from the eighth overall pick from the 2022 NFL Draft as a sophomore.
There's just one gargantuan-sized problem in the room. Pitts was sidelined during the final six weeks of last season, which undoubtedly helped London obtain a more consistent target share on the NFL’s single most run-heavy offense.
Overall, London had just one game with eight or more targets from Weeks 1 to 11 with Pitts active compared to five games with eight or more targets in the final six weeks without Pitts. When Pitts was healthy, he and London had nearly identical target totals.
Ridder starting the final four weeks of the season also played into this volume equation, but that’s just another reminder that Ridder and/or Heinicke probably shouldn’t be expected to provide consistent high-end efficiency for this Atlanta offense, which caps London's upside even if Pitts were to miss time again in 2023.
There’s no doubt that London is talented, but it may be difficult for him to live up to his current top-24 WR ADP.
London is too talented to completely fade, but I prefer Brandon Aiyuk going 15-plus picks later in ADP, as the same volume and QB concerns that plagued London as a rookie remain questions heading into 2023. Only the Titans, Panthers, and Ravens provided fewer expected PPR PPG for their WRs than the Falcons did last season.
As for Atlanta's other options, they can largely be ignored in fantasy. Falcons WRs not named after a city in England contributed just three top-24 PPR weeks all of last season, and none had a weekly fantasy finish higher than the WR20.
Kudos to the Falcons for condensing their passing game around their two talented youngsters, but the projected total available target volume in Atlanta remains so low that it’s still tough to expect much fantasy upside from anyone involved in this passing game.
TEs
- Kyle Pitts (Ian’s TE7)
- Jonnu Smith (TE44)
On the one hand, Pitts did average 11 expected PPR PPG last season, tied for fifth-highest among all TEs. On the other hand, no TE scored fewer PPR points below expectation than Pitts (-34.5) on the season despite him having only played in 10 games.
Pitts's 411.2 unrealized air yards were also the most for any TE in 2022, as many of his incomplete targets were of the uncatchable variety, which is especially annoying when you consider that Pitts boasts the largest measured wingspan of any NFL TE or WR over the last 20 years.
Minimal scoring upside has been the biggest thorn in Pitts’s fantasy backside. Overall, he ranks dead last in percentage of PPR points to come from purely TDs (7.1%) among 31 TEs with at least 150 targets since 2020 (and are still in the NFL).
Pitts is still just 22 years old and deserves credit for already having a 1,000-yard season to his name. However, even his 1,000-yard season led to just 10.4 PPR PPG (TE11), and Pitts will still battle Drake London for targets on what was the most run-heavy offense in the league last year.
The silver lining is that TEs do historically have the longest learning curve at the position, so there's plenty of time for Pitts to reach his potential. He also lined up in the slot or out wide on 59% of his snaps last season while Jonnu Smith had the fourth-most run-blocking snaps at the position back in 2020, so there's little danger of Smith eating into Pitts's routes run.
Unfortunately, Pitts's 21.1 routes run per game last season ranked 29th among 47 qualifying TEs. Although he made up for lack of routes and targets in efficiency by posting 1.69 YPRR (sixth among TEs) and 26.5% TPRR (first among TEs), it'll still be an uphill battle for Pitts to achieve elite fantasy production without volume.
Ultimately, I can’t get behind firing up Pitts as a top-five TE ahead of other talented options like Darren Waller and Dallas Goedert. The entire case for Pitts this season seems to be built around a “certainty” that things can’t get worse from an accuracy standpoint, but Ridder may not be much of an upgrade over Mariota.
In particular, there's simply no reason why Pitts should be going 15 or more spots ahead of Waller in ADP. While Pitts has all the talent in the world, I’ve not made a habit of drafting the 22-year-old TE due to ever-present volume and QB concerns that don’t seem to be on the verge of going away.
2023 Win Total: 8.5
- -130 on the under
I would absolutely smash the over on this win total if the Falcons even had someone like Ryan Tannehill under center. Alas, betting on Atlanta is once again a bigger bet on a strong defense and run game leading the way.
Maybe the Falcons are able to rise to the top of a pretty wide-open NFC South division following the retirement of Tom Brady., but this team went 5-8 last year in games decided by eight or fewer points, and it’s tough to assume that similar scenarios would turn out differently in 2023 without superior QB play.
Atlanta certainly spent big during free agency to maintain their beastly offensive line, and a change at coordinator and defensive additions could theoretically improve the league’s reigning 23rd-ranked scoring defense.
I like the Falcons to be the second-best team in the division behind only the Saints, but even then, give me under 8.5 wins for a team that has yet to make any sort of real investment in the QB position in the post-Matt Ryan era.
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