Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone. It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Cincinnati Bengals, looking at key questions like:
- Will Joe Burrow put forward his most prolific campaign yet?
- Is Joe Mixon the cheapest workhorse RB in all of fantasy football?
- Just how wide is the gap between Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the Bengals will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable Offseason Moves
From the front office to the coaching staff to the roster, every NFL team will be different in 2023 compared to their respective 2022 version.
Head coach Zac Taylor is back for his fifth year running this squad, and he’ll once again be joined by offensive coordinator Brian Callahan and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. It turns out that it’s a lot easier to maintain continuity within the coaching staff when, you know, the team is actually good.
Don’t be surprised if Taylor and Callahan continue to morph this offense into even more of a pass-first unit while continuing to move the ball down the field with a decent sense of urgency:
- 2022: +7.6 pass rate over expected (No. 2); 30.59 seconds per play in neutral situations (No. 11)
- 2021: -0.3% (No. 12); 32.79 (No. 30)
- 2020: +0.1% (No. 15); 30.31 (No. 16)
Cincinnati's offense should once again have a passing game capable of enabling more than one high-end fantasy asset in 2023. Yay!
Additionally, the Bengals have made plenty of changes to their roster. The following QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs have either joined or left Cincinnati in some way, shape, or form this offseason:
- QB: Backup Brandon Allen signed with the 49ers this offseason, which led to the Bengals adding former Broncos, Jets, Saints and Bears QB Trevor Siemian on a one-year, $1.3 million deal as the new backup to Burrow.
- RB: Longtime No. 2 RB Samaje Perine signed with the Broncos in free agency, and Cincinnati declined to address the position’s depth in free agency.
- WR: None
- TE: 2022 starter Hayden Hurst signed with the Panthers in free agency, and backup Mitchell Wilcox remains a restricted free agent, which led to the Bengals adding former Vikings TE Irv Smith on a one-year, $1.75 million deal with just $400,000 in guaranteed money.
The Bengals then used all three of their top-100 overall draft picks to address the defense, making all of their fantasy-relevant options Day 3 selections. The history of draft capital tells us not to expect too much fantasy-friendly production from Purdue WR Charlie Jones (4.131), Illinois RB Chase Brown (5.163), or Princeton WR Andrei Iosivas (6.206) in 2023 and most likely beyond.
QBs
- Joe Burrow (Ian’s QB6)
- Trevor Siemian (QB49)
Burrow proved capable of supplying a fantasy-friendly rushing floor during his second season removed from a torn ACL. His 90-327-6 rushing line in 2022 (including playoffs) was actually superior to what he managed in 30 combined games during 2020 and 2021 (88-291-5).
Of course, Burrow’s primary means of racking up yardage remains through the air. Only Patrick Mahomes (20.3) has averaged more fantasy points per game (PPG) from pure passing production than Burrow (19.2) over the past two seasons.
The 2020 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick has been anyone’s idea of a true top-five real life QB since entering the league:
- Yards per attempt: 7.7 (No. 5 among 39 QBs with 16-plus starts since 2020)
- Adjusted yards per attempt: 7.9 (No. 5)
- Completion rate: 68.2% (No. 2)
- Passer rating: 100.4 (No. 5)
- TD rate: 5.4% (No. 10)
- INT rate: 2.0% (No. 16)
Burrow's accuracy on this throw was truly ridiculous.
This real-life production has easily translated into all sorts of fantasy success for Burrow. Only Jalen Hurts (80%), Mahomes (71%), and Josh Allen (69%) finished as top-six fantasy scorers in a higher percentage of their starts than Burrow (44%) did last season.
Hurts, Mahomes, and Allen are also the only three QBs who have averaged more fantasy PPG than Burrow over the last two seasons. Heading into 2023, I only have Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields ranked above Joe Brrr in addition to Hurts, Mahomes, and Allen, but I’m fine with anyone prioritizing Burrow ahead of Jackson or Fields if they've already drafted Chase or Higgins earlier in the draft.
RBs
- Joe Mixon (Ian’s RB12)
- Chris Evans (RB69)
- Trayveon Williams (RB80)
Two key off-the-field considerations have resulted in Mixon's current ADP as just the RB19 on Underdog Fantasy.
The first is his off-field problems. A warrant was initially issued in Cincinnati for Mixon’s arrest on a count of Aggravated Menacing back on February 2nd. The case was originally dismissed before being re-filed in April.
There was another issue on March 7 featuring the Hamilton County Sheriff’s Office, who said that Mixon’s home was considered part of a crime scene after an alleged shooting in his neighborhood. No charges were filed, and Mixon wasn’t named a suspect, but this is a troubling trend considering some of his previous transgressions from college.
The other big concern is Mixon's contract, as the Bengals could save about $10 million by releasing Mixon this offseason. Of course, Perine leaving for Denver in free agency doesn’t exactly give Cincinnati a ton of depth at the RB position, especially when they didn't invest in additional RB depth in free agency or the NFL Draft.
There are still some viable free agents out there like Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt, and Leonard Fournette, but none of them really stand out as big-time upgrades at the position.
Jan 22, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon (28) runs with the ball against the Buffalo Bills during the fourth quarter of an AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
Pre-draft coach speak from offensive coordinator Brian Callahan sure seemed to point towards Mixon once again working as the team’s starting RB, and the team’s lack of additional offseason moves reinforces this idea. If we're ranking Mixon under the assumption that he'll stay in Cincinnati for at least the 2023 season, he stands out as arguably the most mispriced RB in all of fantasy at the moment.
You can start taking advantage of the discount on Mixon on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below!
Only Austin Ekeler averaged more expected PPR PPG than Mixon last season, and that was with Perine taking all sorts of fantasy-friendly pass-down work. Here are the top-five RBs in expected PPR PPG from 2022:
- Ekeler (20.4)
- Mixon (19.0)
- Christian McCaffrey (18.6)
- Saquon Barkley (17.9)
- Josh Jacobs (17.4)
The Bengals' 28th-ranked offensive line from last year per Pro Football Focus (PFF) didn’t exactly help matters on the ground, so it was Mixon’s receiving ability that really helped drive his fantasy production. Only four RBs averaged more PPR PPG from pure receiving production than Mixon last season:
- Ekeler (12.3)
- McCaffrey (11.1)
- Jerick McKinnon (9.5)
- Leonard Fournette (9.0)
- Mixon (8.3)
Mixon has been the RB6 in PPR PPG in each of the past two seasons, so even a decline in overall rushing efficiency probably wouldn’t stop him from finishing as a top-12 RB in PPR this coming season as long as he maintains his receiving usage and stays the primary TD scorer for the Bengals, who had the seventh-best scoring offense last year.
The time to draft Mixon is now. If he remains with the Bengals, Mixon's ADP will likely rise into the top-10 RBs by July or August.
Behind Mixon, it’s tough to be overly excited about any of these backups as true handcuff options considering the history of Williams splitting time with Evans in games not featuring either Mixon or Perine. I give the fifth-round rookie, Brown, a slight edge if targeting a non-Mixon Bengals RB late in drafts, but I haven’t really been drafting any of these backup RBs so far in best ball.
WRs
- Ja'Marr Chase (Ian’s WR2)
- Tee Higgins (WR14)
- Tyler Boyd (WR57)
Things were virtually dead even from a pure target perspective between Chase and Higgins through 20 full games together, but Chase really took the lead in a major way in 2022.
Since entering the league in 2021, Chase has posted a 174-2623-21 receiving line on 258 targets in 30 full games alongside Higgins, who's posted a 151-2179-14 receiving line on 227 targets.
Chase has also ranked fifth in PPR PPG since entering the league behind only Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, and Tyreek Hill. In fact, his production through two seasons are up there with the league’s best WRs ever, even with Chase unfortunately having missed some time last season.
- Receptions: 189 (tied for No. 8 among all WRs during the first two seasons of their career)
- Receiving yards: 2,501 (No. 5)
- Receiving yards per game: 86.2 (No. 8)
- Receiving TDs: 22 (No. 6)
- PPR PPG: 18.9 (No. 8)
Last season, Chase nearly had as many targets in 15 games (162) as he did in 21 games (including playoffs) as a rookie in 2021 (163). Heading into Year 3, I’d happily roll with the Bengals’ 23-year-old stud as my overall WR2 due to having Burrow as his QB over guys like Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Tua Tagovailoa for some of the other top WR options.
This brings us to an important question: How likely is it for WR teammates to both finish as top-12 fantasy WRs in the same season?
The answer is that it can happen, but not very often. Overall, there have been 18 instances of WR teammates both being top-12 WRs in PPR PPG in the same season since 2012, which means that it happens 1.6 times per season, on average.
Chase and Higgins accomplished this very feat in 2021. While things didn’t work out quite so well in 2022, it was partially due to Higgins having had low snap rates of 1%, 16%, and 26% in three games due to injury. But excluding those three weeks, Higgins averaged a strong 16.5 PPR PPG, which would have been good for a WR12 PPG finish last year.
There’s plenty of production to go around on the Bengals’ high-flying passing attack. It's possible that Chase and Higgins could both finish as top-12 fantasy WRs once again in 2023, and I'd rather bet on Higgins even as a “No. 2” WR than target a worse WR even if he's projected for slightly more targets on another offense.
It’s tough to be too excited about Boyd, who's the odd man out. He's a solid contributor for the Bengals, but there's not much fantasy potential with Burrow usually content to funnel the heavy majority of his targets to Chase and Higgins on the outside.
More concerning for Boyd was the reality that he only posted 3-38-1, 5-44-0, 2-42-0, and 2-16-0 receiving lines on an average of 5.5 targets per game even in the four games last season that Chase missed.
If Chase or Higgins were to miss time in 2023, Boyd would vault into the WR3 range, but a true league-winning fantasy season probably isn’t in the cards for Boyd even then. He shouldn't be a priority target at ADP, and I’ve only been drafting Boyd here and there in best ball to stack with Burrow.
TEs
- Irv Smith (Ian’s TE16)
- Drew Sample (TE58)
- Devin Asiasi (TE68)
The allure of Smith is simple: he’s a 24-year-old former second-round draft pick with the sort of size (6’2, 242 lbs.) and speed (4.63 40-yard dash) to be more than just an in-line TE with a low average depth of target (aDOT).
Smith's potential was on display during his first two seasons in the league as a Viking, as he regularly made the most out of his opportunities while working behind longtime starter Kyle Rudolph.
Of course, things haven’t gone quite so well in recent years. Smith missed the entire 2021 season after tearing his meniscus, and his 2022 season was marred by both a preseason thumb surgery and a high-ankle sprain in Week 8. Smith's ankle sprain compelled the Vikings to trade for T.J. Hockenson from the Lions, and he quickly took over the full-time role and did well enough to convince Minnesota to let Smith walk in free agency.
While Smith now presents intriguing upside on an efficient Bengals offense, it's important to keep expectations for him grounded, as Smith's contract guarantees him a minuscule $400,000.
And yet, the departure of Hayden Hurst offers Smith ample opportunity to make an impact. His primary competition consists of Sample, a longtime block-first TE, and Asiasi, who recorded just two receptions in 12 games with the Bengals last season.
Nov 17, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end Irv Smith (84) runs with the ball against Denver Broncos defensive back Duke Dawson (20) in the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Berding-USA TODAY Sports
Smith does profile as the Bengals’ lead receiving TE in 2023. Just realize that he probably won’t be blessed with all that much target volume on a passing offense that feeds Chase and Higgins first and foremost, which limits Smith's weekly fantasy ceiling. Here's how Bengals TEs have fared in recent years in expected PPR PPG:
- C.J. Uzomah in 2020: 10.7 (TE10)
- Uzomah in 2021: 6.3 (TE27)
- Hurst in 2022: 8.4 (TE16)
It’s great that Burrow had nice things to say about Smith, but the new Cincinnati TE will be a bit of a reach should his ADP rise any more than it has already. I’m cool with throwing some darts at Smith late in best ball drafts, but he’s probably not someone who should be drafted in traditional redraft formats that start only one TE.
2023 Win Total: 11.5
- +110 juice on the over
The 12-4 2022 Bengals overachieved just a bit based on their expected record of 10.4-5.6, which only considers point differential. Still, they only boasted a 5-3 record in one-score contests during the regular season last year, so they aren't a Vikings-esque regression candidate.
That said, losing so many starters from the secondary will downgrade the sixth-ranked scoring defense from last year, although the Bengals' front office deserves credit for restocking in a hurry with their early-round draft picks.
Having to deal with a first-place schedule and four matchups against Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson won’t be ideal in 2023. And yet, I have a hard time betting anything other than over 11.5 wins for Cincinnati due to the reality that Burrow and company remain capable of winning a shootout on any given Sunday.
This Bengals squad was an ill-timed late-hit penalty away from having a chance to go to their second straight Super Bowl last season. Bengals fans and bettors alike have lofty expectations for this coming year, but Cincinnati rightfully deserves to be one of just three teams with a projected win total of over 11.5 for the 2023 NFL season.
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