2023 Team Preview: Cleveland Browns

Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone: It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.

What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Cleveland Browns, looking at key questions like:

1. Can Deshaun Watson re-find his pre-2022 fantasy form?
2. Are the Browns poised to give Nick Chubb the largest workload of his career?
3. Who will emerge as the offense’s No. 2 pass-game target behind Amari Cooper?

Every fantasy-relevant player from the Browns will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.

Notable offseason moves

From the front office, to the coaching staff, to the roster: Every 2023 NFL team will be different than its 2022 version.

Kevin Stefanski enters year four as the Browns head ball coach. Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt will once again be joining him, but defensive coordinator Joe Woods has been replaced with former Lions head coach, and more recently Eagles defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz.

Expecting the 2023 Browns to look like the 2020 to 2022 versions might not be best considering the expectation that this will become a Deshaun Watson-centered offense. This was one of Matthew Berry’s 23 things he learned at the NFL Combine back in March:

“Cleveland's offense is going to be really interesting next year. Look for the Browns to add a speed wide receiver this off-season to go with Amari Cooper. One source told me “They are really going to open up the offense. Go five wide. Pass a lot. This is going to be Deshaun Watson's offense, not Nick Chubb's. They will pass a lot more than folks expect.”

The Browns have ranked 23rd, 26th, and most recently 28th in pass rate over expected under Stefanski; don’t be surprised if they at least start flirting with an average mark in 2023—which is good news for all fantasy-relevant parties involved.

Additionally, the Browns have made plenty of changes to their roster. The following QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs have either joined or left Cleveland in some way, shape, or form this offseason:

• QB: 2022 pre-Watson starter Jacoby Brissett took his talents to the Commanders, leading to the Browns signing former Steelers and Titans QB Joshua Dobbs (one-year, $1.1875 million) as their new backup signal-caller.
• RB: Overqualified No. 2 RB Kareem Hunt remains an unrestricted free agent and reportedly isn’t expected to re-sign in Cleveland. No. 3 RB D’Ernest Johnson took his talents to Jacksonville.
• WR: The Browns made a pair of additions here, trading their 2023 second-round pick for the Jets’ 2023 third-round pick and rising third-year WR Elijah Moore. The front office also added track star Marquise Goodwin (one-year, $1.7 million) to a deal with just $400,000 guaranteed.
• TE: Backup Pharaoh Brown took a deal with the Colts, while (sheriff) Jesse James remains an unrestricted free agent. The Browns accordingly signed former Texans TE Jordan Akins (two-year, $3.9 million) to a short-term deal with $1.73 million in guaranteed money.

Tennessee WR Cedric Tillman (3.74) was the Browns’ first draft pick and offers some intriguing upside if his dominant performances against top-tier SEC competition are a sign of things to come at the professional level.

 Otherwise, UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (5.140) was the only other fantasy-relevant addition; don’t expect much from DTR due to both the 1.) Presence of Watson under center, and 2.) History of draft capital at the position.

QB: Deshaun Watson (Ian’s QB12), Joshua Dobbs (QB59)

Watson ranks third all-time in fantasy points per game among all QBs…ever. At his best, the 2017 NFL Draft’s 12th overall pick possesses elite dual-threat ability that forces defenses to account for every square inch of the football field.

One little problem: Watson was pretty far from okay in 2022. In fact, pretty much any advanced metric paints him as one of the league’s worst QBs.

EPA per dropback? -0.09 and tied with Zach Wilson for 35th among 38 QBs with at least 150 dropbacks last season.

Completion percentage over expected (CPOE)? -3.2%, just ahead of Carson Wentz for 32nd among qualified QBs.

Raw fantasy football points per game?  14.3, just behind Derek Carr and Sam Darnold for 22nd among 43 QBs with at least four starts last season.

Yes, context is needed: Watson’s pass-catchers posted a top-10 drop rate once he got under center in Week 13 (including three dropped touchdowns against the Saints). It would also make sense if his head wasn’t exactly in a great spot following one of the more ridicule-filled offseasons in recent memory.

Still: Watson was really bad in 2022 on basically everything other than intermediate passing accuracy (Player Profiler):

• Accuracy 0-10 yards downfield: 62.4% (No. 36)
• Accuracy 11-20 yards downfield: 74.4% (No. 3)
• Accuracy 21+ yards downfield: 20% (No. 38)

The 230-million-dollar question: Can Watson get back to being the pre-2022 version of himself? Even with last year’s duds included, he remains one of just five QBs to average 20-plus fantasy points per game in NFL history.

It’s possible the Browns go out of their way to reunite Watson with his longtime No. 1 WR DeAndre Hopkins, or guys like Elijah Moore and Cedric Wilson could provide a true boom to the passing game. Head coach Kevin Stefanski does deserve some credit for getting so much out of Jacoby Brissett during the first three months of the season.

Ultimately, Watson would be vying for placement inside the top-three rounds alongside the position’s other elite dual-threat signal-callers if last season’s six-game stretch simply didn’t happen; he has the potential to smash ADP in a major way with a return to form in 2022. 

You also aren’t losing your league if he duds—unlike if you gamble on one of the QBs going in the top-three rounds.

Priced as the QB9 (pick 84.1) over at Underdog Fantasy right ahead of Anthony Richardson, Watson is available right after the WR position begins to fall off a cliff—don’t be afraid to take some chances on a guy who could see his ADP literally cut in half this time next year should the Browns emerge as a legit offense.

RB: Nick Chubb (Ian’s RB7), Jerome Ford (RB49)

That Chubb guy is pretty special.

“How special, Ian?” Well, only Bo Jackson (5.4) and Jamaal Charles (5.4) have averaged more yards per carry in the Super Bowl era among all RBs with 500-plus career carries.

This graph designates yards after contact per carry and explosive run-play rate over the past four seasons. Further top and to the right means an RB is awesome at both.

Yeah, that’s Chubb all alone up there. 

And yet, it’s a minor miracle how well Chubb has performed in fantasy land considering the extent to which the Browns have refrained from fully featuring him:

• 2020: RB28 in expected PPR points per game, RB9 real
• 2021: RB20 expected, RB12 real
• 2022: RB18 expected, RB8 real

It’s no surprise that Chubb ranks first in PPR points above expectation per game (+3.3) at the position since 2020.

Kareem Hunt remains a free agent and D’Ernest Johnson signed with the Jaguars, meaning Chubb might finally get the sort of three-down role that his extraterrestrial talents deserve.

Chubb ranks inside the NFL’s top-three backs in yards per carry (5.2), yards after contact per carry (3.9), and missed tackles forced per carry (0.25) among 64 backs with 300-plus carries since 2018 (PFF). While one won’t confuse him for Christian McCaffrey in the receiving game, Chubb’s career 5.5% drop rate ranks a respectable 21st among 58 qualified backs.

One of six RBs to post top-12 fantasy finishes in PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022, Chubb is fully deserving of round-two treatment in fantasy drafts of all shapes and sizes. Fingers crossed that one of the game’s best players at the position is featured as such in 2023 and beyond.

And then there’s second-year RB Jerome Ford. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler wrote the following about Ford back in his ever-excellent 2022 pre-draft “The Beast”:

“A one-year starter at Cincinnati, Ford became the Bearcats’ lead back as a junior in former offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock’s spread RPO offense. The Alabama transfer was a key reason behind Cincinnati’s run to the 2021 College Football Playoffs, leading the AAC in rushing and matching the school record for rushing touchdowns (19) in a season. Ford has the lateral footwork and body strength to keep plays alive, flashing the open-field juice to gash defenses (averaged 6.1 yards per carry in his career). However, his vision and patience lack consistency, and he needs to improve his ball security and blocking to maintain the trust of his coaches. Overall, Ford has room to improve his eyes and timing at the line of scrimmage to be more of a creator, but he has an effective blend of size, strength and speed with upside catching the football. He can provide a punch to an NFL team’s depth chart.”

The Browns only gave Ford eight offensive touches last season, but their offseason decisions to not re-sign Kareem Hunt or D’Ernest Johnson while also refraining from drafting a single RB speaks volumes to how they feel about the rising second-year back.

If you want to start drafting Ford as a late-round flier, do it on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 for signing up! Click below to get started.

Currently getting first RB reps at OTAs and reportedly set for a “much larger role this season," Ford is one of the best late-round bets out there thanks to his potential to 1.) Siphon away some of Hunt’s leftover fantasy-friendly pass-down work, and 2.) Provide elite handcuff upside should Chubb be forced to miss any time.

WR: Amari Cooper (Ian’s WR16), Elijah Moore (WR52), Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR54), Cedric TIllman (WR73), David Bell (WR106), Marquise Goodwin (WR117)

Cooper is still very much one of the game’s premiere route-running technicians and managed to make the absolute most out of the Jacoby Brissett experience.

Seriously: The man sent more than a few corners straight into the shadow realm last season.

Ranking 14th in PFF receiving grade (83.6) and 15th in yards per route run (2.06) among 80 WRs with at least 50-plus targets last season, Cooper continues to look the part of a rock-solid No. 1 WR as he enters his age 29 season.

The problem: Cooper only put forward one top-30 PPR performance during Watson’s six starts last season. 

It’s not like Watson hasn’t enabled fantasy-friendly receivers in the past—long-time No. 1 wide-out DeAndre Hopkins saw north of 150 targets in all four of their seasons together—but there is once again some level of pause needed before immediately buying all into this passing game.

Ultimately, Cooper is reasonably priced as a mid-tier WR2; I’ve just generally preferred to take one of Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, or Breece Hall in the early third-round portions of drafts when the Browns’ No. 1 WR usually goes off the board. There’s a fairly long tier of WR2 options available; don’t be afraid to take guys on the cheaper side of things when workhorse RBs are still available.

This offense utilized 11 personnel (three WRs) on 70.9% of passing plays last year—good for 20th in the NFL and an improvement on their bottom-four marks from 2020 and 2021 (per Rich Hribar). Still, it’s not exactly a given that any of these complementary receivers actually seize a full-time role:

• Moore: Worked as the overall WR3 from Weeks 7-13 behind only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson. Then 2022 happened, and he ranked just fourth on the team in receiving yards while ranking dead ass last in yards per route run among 80 qualified WRs.
• DPJ: Actually posted more top-36 finishes (4) than Cooper (2) with Watson; this was far more of a 1.A./1.B. situation than No. 1 and No. 2 down the stretch. The rising fourth-year receiver has demonstrated the ability to get all kinds of separation via double-moves, has made many great contested catches, and boasts underrated open-field elusiveness (the man returned punts last year!).
• Tillman: Near five-tool WR has oodles of dominant collegiate film against top-tier SEC competition. The rookie year history of third-round WRs isn’t great; just don’t completely rule out the Tennessee product from factoring in early and often.
• Bell: Another day-three WR option, converted his 35 year-one targets into just 24 receptions for 214 scoreless yards. Still, Bell does profile as the team’s de facto starting slot WR should Moore not catch on.
• Goodwin: The legit track star provides a unique skill-set to the room and proved to still be capable of making big plays with a season-long 27-387-4 receiving line with the Seahawks last season.

Hell, guys like Anthony Schwartz and Jakeem Grant could also possibly factor into the rotation.

Ultimately, I’m fine throwing late-round darts at Moore, DPJ, and Tillman alike in the hopes that one of them rises to the top of this muddled mess. It’d be concerning to have to treat anyone involved as a WR3—but that’s not the case! Feel free to take chances on receivers priced far closer to their floor than ceiling.

TE: David Njoku (Ian’s TE9), Harrison Bryant (TE60), Jordan Akins (TE61)

Njoku is in a similar boat as Cooper: Their great 2022 campaigns ended on a bit of a sour note with Watson under center.

Overall, Njoku put up the following numbers in five games with Watson under center:

• Week 14: 7 receptions-59 yards-1 TD (9 targets)
• Week 15: 3-28-0 (6)
• Week 16: 2-14-0 (5)
• Week 17: 1-21-0 (3)
• Week 18: 4-42-1 (5)

The former and latter performances produced top-six finishes, while Njoku couldn’t crack the position’s top-24 fantasy scorers during the middle three contests. At leasts Njoku played over 90% of the offense’s snaps in all five games; there’s no doubting who the Browns’ featured No. 1 TE is these days.

The soon-to-be 27-year-old looked the part of a truly great talent in 2022.

• PFF receiving grade: 78.7 (No. 6 among 47 qualified TE)
• Yards per route run: 1.55 (No. 12)
• Yards per reception: 10.8 (No. 19)
• Yards after the catch per reception: 5.9 (No. 12)
• Targets per route run: 0.2 (No. 11)

I mean, look at this catch!

Njoku is an athletically gifted plus-receiving TE with a full-time role: He’s fully deserving of his top-10 treatment at the position. While I’ve not drafted a ton of him due to deploying more of a “first or last” mindset at the position, I’m in line with his TE9 ADP and certainly go for him when building a stack with Watson.

2023 win total: 9 (-105 juice on the over)

The Browns have finished 11-5, 8-9, and most recently 7-10 in three seasons under Stefanski. Last year’s squad carried a slightly better 8-9 expected record when only accounting for point differential; this team suffered some back-breaking early-season defeats and wound up going just 2-6 in games decided by eight or fewer points.

The league’s reigning 20th-ranked scoring defense has the potential to take a step forward behind big-money offseason additions DL Dalvin Tomlinson, S Juan Thornhill, and EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo; there’s a scenario where both sides of the football are quite a bit better in 2023.

And yet, the AFC North looks pretty damn strong at the top, while it’s scary to overly fade Mike Tomlin’s 16-year streak of above .500 football. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Browns finish at exactly 9-8, but if pressed I’ll take under nine wins due to the non-zero possibility that the Browns paid $230 million for a QB who isn’t playing anything close to above-average football at the moment.

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