Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone. It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Indianapolis Colts, looking at key questions like:
- How high should year-one expectations be for Anthony Richardson?
- Will Jonathan Taylor bounce back in a major way in 2023?
- Can Michael Pittman make a major leap in his fourth professional season?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the Colts will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable Offseason Moves
From the front office, to the coaching staff, to the roster, every 2023 NFL team will be different than its 2022 version.
The Frank Reich era is over. New Head Coach Shane Steichen most recently helped engineer the Eagles’ prolific offense under Nick Sirianni, while offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter spent 2022 as the Jaguars' passing game coordinator and is best known for working as the Lions' offensive coordinator from 2016 to 2018.
Steichen has already confirmed that he will be calling the plays in 2023. While the 2022 Eagles were a bit more willing to pass the ball in neutral situations than most realize, the 2023 Colts still profile as a bit of a run-first unit when considering Steichen’s complete history and current roster.
- 2022 (Eagles): -0.9% pass rate over expected (10th)
- 2021 (Eagles): -6.4% (30th)
- 2020 (Chargers): -1.7% (21st)
The good news is that Steichen engineered one of the league’s fastest-paced offenses in neutral situations with both the Eagles (No. 1, No. 5) and Chargers (No. 5).
Year-one passing efficiency and volume aren’t a given, but at least this group figures to move down the field with a sense of urgency on more drives than not.
Additionally, the Colts have made plenty of changes to their roster. The following QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs have either joined or left Indianapolis in some way, shape or form this offseason:
- QB: Matt Ryan didn’t retire but also kinda did retire. Anyways, he remains a free agent. The same is true for Nick Foles. The Colts went ahead and signed former Jaguars and Eagles QB Gardner Minshew (1-year, $3.5 million) to provide a
glorious mustacheveteran presence to the QB room. - RB: None.
- WR: Speedy slot WR Parris Campbell took his talents to the Giants in free agency. The Colts replaced him with ex-Bills gadget WR Isaiah McKenzie (1-year, $1.2 million). They also added former Ravens, Browns, Jets and Buccaneers WR Breshad Perriman later in the offseason.
- TE: The team added former Browns TE Pharaoh Brown (1-year, $1.08 million) to the already-crowded TE room.
The move of the offseason for the Colts was obviously drafting Florida QB Anthony Richardson (1.4), who I comped to Mewtwo before the draft. They also added North Carolina WR Josh Downs (3.79) on Day 2 of the draft. The only other fantasy-relevant draft picks are Miami TE Will Mallory (5.162) and Northwestern RB Evan Hull (5.176).
Don’t set expectations too high here. The history of draft capital tells us not to expect much fantasy production from Day 3 picks.
QBs
- Anthony Richardson (Ian’s QB10)
- Gardner Minshew (QB45)
The case for Richardson in fantasy land is simple: The man is quantifiably the most-athletic QB … ever.
The Florida product scored a perfect 10 RAS (relative athletic score) after showing up to the combine at 6’4, 244 lbs. He set the record for both the broad and vertical jumps and also clocked a blazing 4.44 forty-yard dash.
Richardson nicknamed himself “Cam Jackson” in the 11th grade. His reasoning: "Just trying to make big plays, just like Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson.”
The fact this is not an egregious nickname is all you need to know.
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler summarized Richardson with the following paragraph in his ever-excellent “The Beast”:
“A one-year starter at Florida, Richardson became the full-time starter as a redshirt sophomore in head coach Billy Napier’s play-action, outside-zone offense. His 2022 season was full of highs and lows (his 53.8 completion percentage accurately reflects his up-and-down play), although his supporting cast was equally inconsistent from game-to-game. An athletic, large-statured passer, Richardson has the arm to drill every throw imaginable with plus velocity, while also using his legs to be an explosive playmaker (had four 100-yard rushing games compared to only three 250-yard passing games). However, he has scattershot tendencies and is more of a see-it thrower, lacking anticipation and relying on his arm over repeatable footwork/mechanics (only 393 career pass attempts). Overall, Richardson’s volatile accuracy and decision-making cloud his evaluation, but he is a freakshow talent with special size, speed and arm strength, and he put enough promising plays on film to be optimistic about his potential ceiling. He fits an RPO or NFL vertical-passing offense that will also utilize his athleticism, but he needs on-field reps and a patient coaching staff willing to weather the early storm.”
The passing side of things certainly needs some work. Although, there isn’t much history of high-volume rushing QBs busting in fantasy land.
Overall, 13 of 14 QBs with 125-plus carries in a season posted top-12 fantasy numbers on a per-game basis.
That last part is important.
I didn’t just reward the overall finishes for those lucky enough to stay healthy; high-usage rushers at QB join high-volume receiving RBs as the closest things that fantasy football has to cheat codes.
Twenty-one of 26 QBs drafted inside the top 10 went on to start at least 10 games during their rookie season. Redshirt years have become increasingly rare in an era when QB evaluation is rushed more than ever.
June 14, 2023; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) gives a high-five to Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) on Wednesday, June 14, 2023, during mandatory minicamp at the Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center in Indianapolis. Mandatory Credit: Mykal McEldowney-USA TODAY Sports
When drafting, it’s important to look at archetypes of positions and determine: What can I get in this round that I cannot get later?
If fading the early-round QB tier, guys like Richardson, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones and a healthy Kyler Murray represent the best bets to provide that alien-level dual-threat production at a drastically reduced cost. I’m a fan of acquiring Richardson at his current eighth- to ninth-round cost, as he’s going in a sweet spot of drafts where the top-45 WRs, top-30 RBs and top-eight TEs are usually already off the board.
If Minshew starts the season over Richardson, I have to eat this tweet. So yeah, not expecting that to happen. Stay tuned.
You can start drafting your Richardson shares on Underdog Fantasy TODAY and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up! Click below to get started.
RBs
- Jonathan Taylor (Ian’s RB8)
- Deon Jackson (RB94)
- Zack Moss (RB99)
Taylor’s workload didn’t change all that much in 2022. He averaged 17.9 expected PPR points per game in 2021 vs. 15.3 last season. However, the main difference was that the Colts’ 30th-ranked scoring offense struggled to yield him the same sort of fantasy-friendly goal-line opportunities.
Overall, Taylor’s 26 rush attempts inside the five-yard line were nine more than the next-closest player in 2021. But last season, he managed just eight goal-line carries in 11 injury-riddled contests. The campaign was largely considered a disappointment considering Taylor almost always went inside any fantasy draft’s top-two picks; just realize the offensive environment was the primary culprit.
On the one hand, Taylor could experience improved health in 2022, and it’d make sense if PFF’s 18th-ranked offensive line plays a bit better after regressing last season.
On the other hand, the history of dual-threat QBs enabling fantasy-friendly teammates is not good.
There’s plenty of evidence of high-volume dual-threat QBs engineering fantastic real-life offenses. But even in those situations, we’ve seen the available backfield opportunities leave a lot to be desired. Just look at the Ravens, Eagles, Bills and Seahawks.
Steichen was also happy to oversee committee backfields during his time in Philly. It’s unlikely that Jackson or Moss will take away any meaningful work from Taylor. Although the rising fourth-year back’s usage doesn’t have anywhere to go but down, considering interim head coach Jeff Saturday was willing to leave him on the field for virtually the entire game.
Ultimately, I can’t get behind Taylor’s standing as the RB4 over at Underdog Fantasy due to the likely lack of 1.) TD upside in the league’s 30th-ranked scoring offense, and 2.) Newfound lack of pass-game and goal-line opportunities due to the presence of Richardson under center.
Guys with lower ADP, like Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb and Tony Pollard, arguably have higher volume ceilings and definitely exist in better overall offensive environments.
WRs
- Michael Pittman (Ian’s WR33)
- Josh Downs (WR70)
- Alec Pierce (WR75)
- Isaiah McKenzie (WR105)
Pittman does deserve some credit for his 99-925-4 receiving line last season; he worked as the WR22 in PPR points per game.
Still, his efficiency numbers all declined in a major way after improving across the board from his rookie to sophomore season:
- 2020: 1.37 yards per route run, 12.6 yards per reception, 15.5% targets per route run
- 2021: 1.95 YPRR, 12.3 YPR, 22.3% TPRR
- 2022: 1.44 YPRR, 9.3 YPR, 21.7% YPRR
Obviously, Matt Ryan and Sam Ehlinger didn’t help matters, but it’s also not a given that Richardson or Minshew vastly improve the league’s reigning 30th-ranked offense in net yards per pass attempt.
New Head Coach Shane Steichen certainly helped create an awfully lethal Eagles offense over the past two seasons; just realize Pittman once again needs to prove himself to an entirely new play-caller and QB – neither of whom are guaranteed to be, what’s the word, good in 2023.
The same principle problems are there for Downs, Pierce and McKenzie alike. This is a run-first offense with a QB fully expected to go through rather severe growing pains throwing the football in 2023. It’s not like this Colts offense was a haven for fantasy-friendly WRs even before the coaching and QB changes.
Ultimately, Pierce and Downs are nothing more than late-round darts. I haven’t prioritized them in best ball drafts unless the squad has already been blessed with Richardson. I prefer similarly-priced options like Rondale Moore over Pierce and Isaiah Hodgins over Downs.
This isn’t a knock on either WR. I’m more so fading this likely abysmal offensive environment. Bottom-10 scoring offenses are far less likely to enable high-end fantasy WRs compared to RBs and TEs.
Don’t go out of your way to get any pass-catchers involved in what profiles as one of the league’s most run-heavy offenses.
TEs
- Jelani Woods (Ian’s TE27)
- Mo Alie-Cox (TE44)
- Kylen Granson (TE60)
Woods’ season-long 25-312-3 receiving line as a rookie didn’t exactly jump off the page. But the 24-year-old still posted two top-five fantasy finishes and flashed some of the freaky athletic ability that earned him all sorts of pre-draft love from fantasy analysts in the first place.
Woods and Alie-Cox actually look bigger on the field than their gargantuan size suggests. Both are capable of winning in tight quarters by simply bullying defenders in the red zone.
Of course, Granson has also stayed involved over the years because why not. The team may also prefer free agent signee Pharaoh Brown and/or Day 3 selection Will Mallory to these options.
Dec 26, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts tight end Jelani Woods (80) runs with the ball while Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Michael Davis (43) defends in the first half at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Like Gerald Everett, the hope with Woods is that his new coach will stick with what worked for them during the previous coaching regime and feature *one* TE instead of a committee. Dallas Goedert rarely left the field when healthy after the Eagles traded Zach Ertz; in an ideal world, that role will now be handed to Woods.
TEs take longer to develop into fantasy studs than any other position; it’d make sense if Woods is still a year away from being a year away. Still, the rising second-year monster is dirt cheap and usually available in the very last round of best ball drafts.
Throwing a dart at Woods comes with the possibility that this room is simply split into three parties. And, once again, this would render each player a non-viable fantasy asset. His athletic profile and brief booms in 2022 suggest he’s a decent dart. However, I’ve still preferred guys like Hunter Henry and Noah Fant in the very last round of fantasy drafts if not building towards a stack.
2023 Win Total: 6.5 (-120 juice on the over)
The Colts were the NFL’s worst team in 2022 when looking at overall point differential (-138). Their 30th-ranked scoring offense and 28th-ranked scoring defense were simultaneously liabilities throughout the disappointing campaign.
The former group is hardly assured to take a significant step forward with Richardson profiling as a bit of a project early on, while the latter isn’t guaranteed to be any better after losing key contributors CB Stephon Gilmore (Cowboys), LB Bobby Okereke (Giants) and EDGE Yannick Ngakoue (unrestricted free agent).
I’m riding with under 6.5 wins for a squad that sure looks a lot like one of the worst teams in the NFL at the moment. Consider: Cam Newton largely smashed individual expectations on his way to winning Rookie of the Year back in 2011 … and the Panthers went 6-10.
This team has far more holes than just under center; the only way I see them hitting the over is based on the rest of the AFC and NFC South being bad enough to help lift this squad to some ugly wins throughout the year.
You can tail the under on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can also get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you create a new account. Sign up below and start betting today!
