Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone: It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Jacksonville Jaguars, looking at key questions like:
- Does Trevor Lawrence deserve to be treated as an upside QB1?
- How high should expectations be for Travis Etienne’s encore campaign?
- Is there enough volume for both Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk to ball out?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the Jaguars will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable offseason moves
From the front office, to the coaching staff, to the roster: Every 2023 NFL team will be different than its 2022 version.
Not Urban Meyer, AKA Doug Pederson is back for his second season as the Jaguars head coach after an objectively successful year one. He’ll once again be flanked by offensive coordinator Press Taylor and defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell.
Pederson shared some play-calling duties for parts of his time in Philly, but has undertaken the duty in Jacksonville. He certainly hasn’t been someone allergic to throwing the damn ball at either stop.
- 2022: 0% pass rate over expected (No. 9)
- 2020: +0.3% (No. 13)
- 2019: -0.5% (No. 15)
- 2018: +2.7% (No. 7)
- 2017: -0.2% (No. 9)
- 2016: -1.6% (No. 21)
The Jaguars even ranked ninth in neutral situation pace after Pederson never finishing higher than 17th with the Eagles: This pass-first offense that moves down the field with a sense of urgency sure looks capable of enabling multiple fantasy-friendly assets in the passing game.
Additionally, the Jaguars have made plenty of changes to their roster. The following QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs have either joined or left Jacksonville in some way, shape or form this offseason:
- QB: None.
- RB: The Jaguars declined to re-sign Darrell Henderson after bringing him in midway through the 2022 season. Ex-Browns RB D’Ernest Johnson (1-year, $1.2 million) is getting just $880,625 guaranteed as a depth piece.
- WR: Old man Marvin Jones re-signed with the Lions after his two-year Jacksonville vacation. Friendly reminder that the Jaguars acquired ex-Falcons WR Calvin Ridley for just a 2023 fifth and conditional 2024 pick last November.
- TE: Receiving-first TE Dan Arnold signed with the Eagles, while block-first TE Chris Manhertz took his talents to Denver. The Jags signed fellow tweener/receiving-first TE Jacob Harris (1-year, $940,000) to a small deal with zero guaranteed money.
The Jaguars added a pair of day-two talents to the fold on offense. Both Auburn RB Tank Bigsby (3.88) and Penn State TE Branton Strange (2.61) could find themselves in rotations sooner rather than later. Don’t expect the same sort of workload for Penn State WR Parker Washington (6.185) due to both the team’s crowded WR room as well as the history of draft capital.
QB: Trevor Lawrence (Ian’s QB8), C.J. Beathard (QB52)
The highs from Lawrence’s breakout second season were truly something.
A few memories:
- The comeback performance against the Ravens featured one ridiculous throw after another during the game’s final 15 minutes.
- Eight total TDs, 686 pass yards, and 76 points in a two-week stretch against the Titans and Cowboys demonstrated the upside of the offense.
- Four TDs in 25 minutes of game time helped lead the Jaguars to their biggest comeback in team history during their wild (lol) Wild Card win over the Chargers.
Seriously: The 2021 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick flashed every bit of the “generational” talent he was promised to possess throughout 2022.
The results were predictably a fun time in fantasy land when everything was going right, as only Jalen Hurts (80%), Patrick Mahomes (71%), Josh Allen (69%), and Joe Burrow (44%) finished as a top-six fantasy QB in a higher percentage of their starts than Lawrence (41%).
Still, Lawrence did finish as just the QB11 in fantasy points per game behind guys with lower ADP like Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones, and Geno Smith.
The highs were a helluva drug, but he did register eight games that produced under 250 passing yards and one or less passing TD – including four of his last five games of the season (including playoffs).
The Jaguars just added a legit No. 1 WR in Calvin Ridley and T-Law is 23 years old entering his second season in Doug Pederson’s system: The future is incredibly bright and it’d make a lot of sense if things are even better in 2023 – just realize he wasn’t a no-doubt top-10 QB in 2022.
- PFF passing grade: 73.1 (No. 15 among 48 qualified QB)
- Completion percentage over expected (CPOE): +1.4% (No. 12)
- EPA per dropback: +0.16 (No. 9)
- Passer rating: 95.2 (No. 10)
- Yards per attempt: 7 (No. 22)
- Adjusted completion rate: 77.7% (No. 8)
- Big-time throw rate: 4.6% (No. 13)
- Turnover-worthy play rate: 3% (No. 19)
Currently priced as the QB8 over at Underdog Fantasy, Lawrence (pick 64) is far closer overall to Joe Burrow (45) and Justin Herbert (54) than the aforementioned Tagovailoa (99), Jones (110), and Smith (115). This is asking a lot out of the third-year signal-caller, who is also being drafted with plenty of talented RBs, WRs, and TEs still on the board.
Ultimately, I’m in line with Lawrence’s positional ADP, but I haven’t gone out of my way to overly draft him in best ball land unless Calvin Ridley and/or Christian Kirk are already on the squad.
I won’t be surprised if the rising third-year signal-caller's numbers threaten the position’s top-five QBs this time next year, but the gap between the position’s mid- and low-end QB1s is generally just a bit too wide for my liking.
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RB: Travis Etienne (Ian’s RB14), Tank Bigsby (RB48), D’Ernest Johnson (RB83), JaMycal Hasty (RB95)
Etienne racked up 1,441 total yards and scored five TDs in his de facto rookie season.
He added another 201 yards and a score in two playoff performances, showing off the same sort of cheetah-level speed that was regularly displayed at Clemson before his 2021 foot injury.
A featured workload on the ground was more than enough for Etienne to work as the RB20 in PPR points per game after removing his injury-induced five-snap effort in Week 12.
His average of 14.7 PPR points per game in Weeks 7 to 18 (excluding Week 12) without James Robinson in the picture would have been good for RB10 status if extrapolated over an entire season.
The difference between the former and latter stretches is the difference between you deciding to draft ETN (RB12 Underdog ADP) or not. It’s worth being at least a bit concerned about the front office spending day two draft capital on the position, particularly given Doug Pederson’s usual tendency to not overload one individual RB.
The two main issues that could impact ETN’s fantasy upside this season: Pass-down work and goal-line usage.
There are some reasons for concern with the former variable. The 25th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft didn’t exactly demonstrate the sort of high-level receiving upside that many thought was on the table.
PFF’s fourth-lowest graded RB (49.8) out of 47 qualified backs, Etienne had some bad drops on top of his five fumbles.
Additionally, I still have not heard a good reason why Jamycal Hasty out-snapped Etienne (35 vs. 26) during the Jaguars’ Divisional Round loss to the Chiefs. Neither team ever led by more than 10 points, and Etienne played a dominant 86% of the offense’s snaps the previous week when the Chargers were down 27 points in the first half.
Note that Etienne wasn’t listed on the injury report for either contest and played throughout both games while seemingly not getting injured.
There’s more concern when looking at how Etienne performed in terms of cashing in carries inside the five-yard line into scores.
Just four RBs failed to convert at least 30% of their goal-line carries into scores among the league’s 25 most-used goal line backs:
- Devin Singletary (28.6%)
- Rhamondre Stevenson (28.6%)
- Etienne (20%)
- Kenneth Walker (11%)
This offseason, the Jaguars re-signed Hasty to a two-year, $3.2 million deal and selected 5’11, 210-pound bowling ball Tank Bigsby, who The Athletic’s Dane Brugler summarized with the following breakdown in his ever-excellent “The Beast”:
“A three-year starter at Auburn, Bigsby was the team’s most explosive asset in former offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau’s zone scheme. He announced himself as one of the SEC’s best backs as a freshman and led the Tigers in rushing each of his three seasons on The Plains (his 13 100-yard rushing performances ranks top-3 in school history).
Bigsby runs with natural power, contact balance, and body control and is just as likely to run through defenders as he is to juke them in space.
He will miss run lanes because of spotty vision, tempo, and patience, but he often had to create on his own, and those parts of his game should improve with better blocking and talent around him.
Overall, Bigsby needs to improve his decisiveness and feel for finding creases, but he has playmaking skills thanks to his upfield explosiveness along with his upside as a receiver and blocker. He has NFL starting potential in a gap or zone scheme”
There shouldn’t be any concern about Bigsby displacing ETN atop the depth chart – give the rising third-year RB credit for racking up the fifth-most 15-plus yard runs (16) in the league while posting top-15 marks in yards per carry (5.1) and yards after contact per carry (3.08) – but the day two selection certainly profiles as competition for fantasy-friendly short-yardage opportunities.
Don’t expect Etienne’s fantasy production to fall off a cliff; I just struggle to get behind his top-12 RB and top-40 overall ADP over at Underdog Fantasy.
Guys who are also in great offenses and projected to lead their backfields, like Kenneth Walker, Joe Mixon, and J.K. Dobbins are going more than a round and a half later and won’t force you to have to pass on a potential top-20 WR.
Meanwhile, Bigbsy has been a favorite later-round target of mine thanks to his ability to either 1.) Provide some level of TD-dependent standalone value, and/or 2.) Boom as a handcuff should ETN be forced to miss any time.
Early camp reports praised Bigsby as a receiver and noted he has the inside track at the No. 2 job; he’s going in a great spot of the draft when the top-19 QBs, top-64 WRs, and top-15 TEs are already off the board.
WR: Calvin Ridley (Ian’s WR13), Christian Kirk (WR27), Zay Jones (WR58)
We haven’t seen Ridley play football in a while.
Friendly reminder: He’s really good.
Reinstated after missing all of 2022 due to suspension, Ridley appears to be healthy and ready to go if his AWESOME piece in The Players Tribune is any indication.
The former No. 26 overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft provided efficient borderline WR2 production during his first two seasons in Atlanta while splitting targets with Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu.
The departure of the latter receiver led to a breakout 2020 campaign, while 2021’s stepback is rather easily explained by Ridley attempting to play through a broken foot.
- 2021: 14.2 PPR points per game (WR24)
- 2020: 18.8 (WR4)
- 2019: 15.2 (WR18)
- 2018: 12.9 (WR26)
Currently carrying an ADP as the WR16, I’ve regularly gone after Ridley at the 3-4 turn in best ball land, thanks to the expectation that he works as the No. 1 WR in this ascending passing attack.
And then there’s Kirk, who set career-high marks in receptions (84), receiving yards (1,108), and receiving TDs (8) in 2022.
He also performed well when it mattered, posting 8-78-1 and 7-52-1 receiving lines in two playoff performances.
And guess what: Kirk looked good while doing so. Displaying a mix of pristine route-running ability and after-the-catch goodness, Kirk posted some pretty solid, efficient numbers last season:
- PFF receiving grade: 76.1 (28th)
- Yards per route run: 1.79 (tied for 29th)
- Yards after the catch per reception: 4.6 (28th)
- Targets per route run: 19.8% (37th)
Unfortunately, Kirk’s reign as the Jaguars’ No. 1 WR might be over in the form of Calvin Ridley.
Hell, Kirk (133 targets) wasn’t even featured that far ahead of Zay Jones (121); it’s possible – if not likely – that the ex-Cardinals WR struggles to see the same volume in 2023.
Good news: Most of this concern is already being priced into Kirk’s WR3-level ADP. He’s still a featured member of an ascending passing attack; fire up last season’s WR19 in PPR points per game as a high-floor WR3 inside an offense worth investing in.
Jones is also in play with a WR55 ADP, although I’ve favored borderline RB3 types like Antonio Gibson, Damien Harris, and Elijah Mitchell when still on the board.
Still, don’t be surprised if Jones is a value at that cost considering the Jaguars ranked fifth in expected PPR points to WRs last season.
TE: Evan Engram (Ian’s TE8), Brenton Strange (TE40)
Engram’s bounce-back 2022 campaign featured career-best marks in receptions (73) and receiving yards (766), while he was only one of seven players at the position to catch at least 15 passes that gained 15-plus yards.
Hell, Engram was only charged with three drops – he racked up 12 drops during his final two seasons with the Giants.
The former first-round pick was the latest TE to put up big-time fantasy numbers under Doug Pederson, even managing to flash some pristine route-running ability along the way.
Yes, Engram failed to gain more than 30 receiving yards in nine of 17 regular season contests, and an awful lot of his production came in one majestic Week 14 performance (11-162-2).
Also, yes, those are the sort of blowup performances one would occasionally expect from a 6-foot-3, 234-pound freak athlete with the ability to run the 40-yard dash in 4.42 seconds.
The Jaguars ascending passing attack is more crowded than ever with Ridley replacing old-man Jones; that said Engram is plenty deserving of his current valuation as a top-eight TE in fantasy. The better question might be whether or not it’s worth attacking the middle tier of TE when that draft range of the position has been so difficult to predict in recent years.
Ultimately, Engram will be a staple in the later rounds of traditional one-TE re-draft formats. At the same time, his boom capability makes him an excellent stacking partner with Lawrence in best-ball land.
2023 Win Total: 10.5 (+120 juice on the over)
The reigning 9-8 Jaguars are expected to make a bit of a leap this season, undoubtedly thanks to their placement in a division that could be starting three rookie QBs by the end of the season, depending on how things wind up in Tennessee.
This passing offense looks poised to make a serious leap, while the defense’s wealth of edge-rusher talent looks capable of causing annual problems for opposing QBs. This sure seems like the recipe for prolonged success in the modern NFL.
The first-place schedule won’t help, but I’ll take plus odds on the Jaguars going over 10.5 wins as a hat tip to T-Law and his potential to join the position’s top-five conversation this time next year.
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