Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone. It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Kansas City Chiefs, looking at key questions like:
- Does Patrick Mahomes deserve to be the first QB off the board in fantasy land?
- Should you target Isiah Pacheco in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts?
- Is it finally time to buy the Kadarius Toney WR1 hype?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the Chiefs will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable Offseason Moves
From the front office to the coaching staff to the roster, every NFL team will be different in 2023 compared to their respective 2022 version.
Andy Reid is back for his 11th year as the Chiefs' head coach. However, longtime offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy took his talents to Washington, leading to former Bears coach and longtime Chiefs assistant Matt Nagy taking the reins.
While Reid has said that he and Bieniemy have shared play-calling duties over the years, it’s safe to say that this offense won’t radically change due to Bieniemy's departure. Expect Mahomes to continue throwing the football at one of the highest rates in the entire league.
- 2022: +10.8% pass rate over expected (No. 1)
- 2021: +9.5% (No. 1)
- 2020: +9.5% (No. 1)
- 2019: +7.8% (No. 1)
- 2018: +7.9% (No. 2)
Kansas City has also ranked sixth, sixth, seventh, third, and most recently third in neutral situation pace, respectively, since Mahomes became the starter there. This once again profiles as an offense with more than enough pass-game volume to enable multiple high-end fantasy options alongside Mahomes.
Additionally, the Chiefs have made plenty of changes to their roster since the start of free agency in March. The following QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs have either joined or left Kansas City in some way, shape, or form this offseason:
- QB: The “Henne-thing is possible” era ended after longtime backup Chad Henne retired. The team signed longtime Buccaneers backup Blaine Gabbert to a one-year, $1.3 million deal as the new No. 2 QB.
- RB: Ronald Jones signed with the Cowboys in free agency.
- WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster (Patriots) and Mecole Hardman (Jets) both departed for the AFC East, and the Chiefs restocked on WR depth by signing Richie James to a one-year, $1.2 million contract ($552,500 guaranteed).
- TE: None
The Chiefs only made one offensive skill position addition in the draft, selecting SMU WR Rashee Rice (2.55) on Day 2. It remains to be seen just how heavily involved he’ll be in year one, but the history of draft capital is certainly on Rice's side.
QBs
- Patrick Mahomes (Ian’s QB3)
- Blaine Gabbert (QB54)
It was no Tyreek Hill, no problem for Mahomes in 2022. On the contrary, Mahomes more or less returned to form to his 2018 MVP self last season.
- 2022: +3.5% CPOE (No. 2 among qualifying QBs), +0.28 EPA per dropback (No. 1)
- 2021: +2.6% (No. 6), +0.21 (No. 2)
- 2020: +2.8% (No. 11), +0.29 (No. 3)
- 2019: +2.4% (No. 8), +0.28 (No. 2)
- 2018: +4.4% (No. 7), +0.35 (No. 3)
Throwing for a career-high 5,250 passing yards and 41 TDs was enough production to land Mahomes his first overall QB1 finish since that magical sophomore campaign in 2018.
Of course, Mahomes's 24.5 fantasy points per game (PPG) last year did still trail Josh Allen (24.7) and Jalen Hurts (25.2) in fantasy land. While no QB has scored more fantasy PPG from pure passing production over the years, Mahomes doesn’t quite have the sort of ridiculous rushing volume to always shine as the best fantasy QB regardless of his unquestioned real-life QB1 status.
Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, US; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) against the Philadelphia Eagles during Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
If there’s one thing to be concerned about in 2023, it’s that Mahomes’s league-high 6.3% pass TD rate last year will potentially regress a tad bit. Plenty of research suggests that his TD rate will dip in a potentially meaningful way this coming season.
Since 2000, 83 QBs have posted a TD rate of at least six percent with a minimum of eight starts, and of those QBs who again started eight or more games the following year, a whopping 62 of 68 (91%) saw their TD rate decline. That sample includes Mahomes in both 2019 (5.4%) after his brilliant 2018 (8.6%) campaign as well as his 2021 (5.6%) season following 2020 (6.5%).
Don’t get it twisted: not even Jason Pierre-Paul needs two hands to count the number of QBs you should take ahead of Mahomes in fantasy, as he still finished as the QB6 and QB5 in fantasy PPG during those “down” 2019 and 2021 seasons.
Still, I’ve had a hard time getting behind Mahomes at his overall QB1 (pick 21.1) ADP unless I already have Travis Kelce to stack with from earlier in that draft. And it's not just that Mahomes is going ahead of Allen and Hurts but that second-round fantasy draft capital on any QB is a tough roster construction strategy to swallow, especially for a QB like Mahomes who doesn't boast a world-beating rushing floor and ceiling.
RBs
- Isiah Pacheco (Ian’s RB27)
- Jerick McKinnon (RB45)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB73)
Pacheco runs like a cheetah with thoughts of an assassin. Seriously, getting in this dude’s way must be absolutely terrifying.
As a rookie, Pacheco turned 207 carries into 1,027 yards and six TDs. He also caught 19 of 21 targets for 195 yards, but the Chiefs regularly turned pass-down responsibilities over to McKinnon and even CEH at times.
Pacheco never played on 60% or more of the offense’s snaps in a game last year, and he had more games under a 30% snap share (7) than he did over 50% (3). It’s awfully difficult for primary early-down RBs to boom in PPR formats, especially on a pass-first offense like Kansas City. In fact, Mahomes’s league-high 73 pass attempts inside the 10-yard line was a full 20 more than the QB with the next-highest, Kirk Cousins (53).
The Kareem Hunt years were awfully prolific, but it’s been four long years since this Chiefs offense has produced a high-end RB in fantasy land.
Pacheco certainly didn’t look out of place catching the football when asked – his 5-59-0 performance against the Bengals in the AFC Championship game was particularly impressive – but we now have a full Presidential term's worth of evidence that the Mahomes-led Chiefs are happy to utilized a committee backfield that doesn't feature any one RB.
It’s not egregious to take Pacheco at his RB25 (pick 82.4) ADP, but I generally prefer potential difference-makers at QB and TE like Deshaun Watson and Darren Waller in that range. This area of the draft is also usually the last chance for teams to get a WR with real upside like Quentin Johnson, Elijah Moore, and Rashod Bateman.
RBs like Brian Robinson and A.J. Dillon offer similar, if not superior, touch projections compared to Pacheco and routinely go two or more rounds later. Pacheco of course has the best offensive environment of the group, but the fantasy production for Chiefs RBs simply hasn’t kept pace with the team's overall offensive greatness in recent history.
It’s tough to be overly critical about either McKinnon or CEH given their cheap costs; just realize that McKinnon has serious age cliff concerns, and CEH's time as a potential featured back certainly seems to have run out if his status as “scout team DeVonta Smith” in practice heading into this last Super Bowl tells us anything.
You can take a few shots on McKinnon or CEH late on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below!
WRs
- Kadarius Toney (Ian’s WR36)
- Skyy Moore (WR59)
- Rashee Rice (WR62)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR69)
- Richie James (WR96)
- Justyn Ross (WR112)
- Justin Watson (WR145)
Toney moves differently than most professional football players in a good way. To be honest, I wouldn’t be surprised if this man has never lost a game of tag in his life.
Besides Toney’s tendency to play football like he’s living life on fast forward, it was good to see him finally get a chance to at least briefly show what he could do in an offense happy to feed him the rock. In 2022, Toney's 29.4% targets per route run (TPRR) led all WRs from Week 9 to the Super Bowl…with a minimum of 25 targets.
That’s the central problem with the 24-year-old WR talent. Toney has only played in 19 of 34 regular season games since being selected with the 20th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. Multiple hamstring problems have been the primary culprit, but Toney's shaky relationship with the Giants' staff didn't help matters.
Focusing on the present day, Toney does project as one of the Chiefs’ starting WRs alongside MVS and probably one of Moore or Rice. But Watson could also stay involved to some extent on the outside, and James and Ross are wild cards in the equation as well.
The Chiefs' WR room could be a confusing mix all season long with no WR really claiming a true No. 1 role, but there has been a constant drumbeat of positive chatter surrounding Toney this offseason that presents the possibility of a true breakout for him:
- February 28: Reid said that Toney will “probably have a bigger role and is very talented”.
- May 7: Chiefs general manager Brett Veach said, “I don’t know if there is a limit on [Toney's] game because he has a vertical game. It’s a fair question to [ask]: ‘Has he ever played with a quarterback that likes to push the ball down the field?’ We have a lot of high hopes for him. He was a first-round pick for a reason. There’s a reason why we traded for him and we felt like he was first-round talent.”
- May 29: ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler said that Kansas City believes Toney can be the “No. 1 type receiver” they’re looking for this season.
- June 1: Nagy said that Toney is “super talented with the football in his hands, and he’s been that way his entire life in his football career.” Nagy also noted that Toney now knows the "ins and outs" of the Chiefs' system entering his second season with the team, stating that Toney was "able to do that, and it’s exciting now for us to be able to take that to Year 2 and build that relationship with [Mahomes].”
Ultimately, Toney is going off the board as the WR38 (pick 72.5) alongside fellow unproven boom-or-bust WRs like Treylon Burks, George Pickens, and Gabe Davis. This is a reasonable price for a prospect like Toney who's flashed such tantalizing per-route numbers on the league’s single-most lethal passing attack. The ceiling is the moon for Toney if he can earn a full-time role and stay healthy with the blessing of the fantasy gods.
Sadly, it's probably wishful thinking to expect more than one fantasy-relevant WR to emerge from this Chiefs offense with how involved the team’s future Hall of Fame TE draws targets.
Still, there have certainly been some big individual performances from the Chiefs’ top WR in PPR PPG since 2014:
- 2022: Hardman (11.7 PPR PPG, WR32)
- 2021: Hill (17.4 PPR PPG, WR6)
- 2020: Hill (21.9 PPR PPG, WR2)
- 2019: Hill (15.7 PPR PPG, WR11)
- 2018: Hill (20.9 PPR PPG, WR3)
- 2017: Hill (16.4 PPR PPG, WR4)
- 2016: Hill (13.6 PPR PPG, WR21)
- 2015: Jeremy Maclin (16.2 PPR PPG, WR18)
- 2014: Dwayne Bowe (9.0 PPR PPG, WR61)
And yet, 2018 Sammy Watkins (11.5 PPR PPG, WR35) was the only WR not named Hill to have averaged double-digit PPR PPG from 2016 and 2021. Moore, Rice, and MVS are all reasonable later-round dart throws who could earn large roles on the league’s most-prolific passing attack, and James and Ross do have upside even as final-round lottery tickets.
All of Kansas City's WRs have week-winning upside, but we haven’t seen an ancillary Chiefs WR earn consistent snaps or targets in quite some time. Without that, it's tough to project any of them for consistent production in 2023.
TEs
- Travis Kelce (Ian’s TE1)
- Noah Gray (TE52)
Although Kelce will turn 34 years old in October, TEs have historically produced elderly fantasy stars at a far higher rate than RBs or WRs.
Nothing about Kelce’s underlying data seemed to indicate a true drop-off in performance last season, as he seemed plenty capable of putting even the league’s best corners into a blender in 2022.
It's nothing short of remarkable that Kelce has been the overall PPR TE1 in six of the last seven years.
Did you catch that?
Kelce has been fantasy football’s highest-scoring player at the TE position in all but one season since Obama left the White House.
Continuing to fire up Mahomes’s undisputed No. 1 pass-game option as the top TE in fantasy land is an easy call. The real question comes down to how high Kelce ranks relative to the first-round options at RB and WR.
On average, the overall TE1 has out-scored the TE6 by 6.2 PPR PPG over the last five years. That’s the second-highest discrepancy of any position other than RB (+6.7). Still, things have swung even further in the direction of TEs in recent years, as they have posted the largest discrepancy in back-to-back seasons by whopping marks of +7.05 and +9.81, respectively.
Of course, it’s been a helluva lot easier pinpointing the overall TE1 than RB1, which has had a different champion in 19 consecutive years. This ridiculously consistent and elite run from Kelce has been unmatched in both real life and for fantasy football, period.
The only players I’m consistently drafting over Kelce in the first round are Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, and Christian McCaffrey, although it's often a coin flip between McCaffrey and Kelce. Kelce’s ADP of 1.06 is right in line with where he should be, so don’t be afraid to spend a mid first-round pick on quite literally the most-productive TE in the history of fantasy football.
2023 Win Total: 11.5
- -145 on the over
The Chiefs have ripped off 12, 12, 14, 12, and 14 wins, respectively, with Mahomes as their starting QB. Hell, they even won 11, nine, 11, 12, and 10 games under Reid even in the five years prior to starting one of the greatest QBs the game has ever seen.
Dealing with a first-place schedule isn’t ideal in 2023, but the cross-conference matchups against the NFC North could be a lot worse. Maybe the league’s 16th-ranked scoring defense will take a step back with Juan Thornhill and Frank Clark gone, but it’s tough to bet too heavily against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. Prior to last season, Kansas City's defense ranked inside the league’s top-10 scoring defenses from 2019 to 2021.
It’s not guaranteed that the fourth-ranked offensive line from last year per Pro Football Focus (PFF) will be quite as dominant without former starting tackles Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie, but then again, if anyone is capable of consistently overcoming a lack of surrounding talent, it’s probably Reid and Mahomes.
Ultimately, give me over 11.5 wins for the highest-projected offense with the best QB in the NFL. Don't overthink this one, as Mahomes hasn't given anyone reason to bet against him yet in his still-young career.
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