2023 Team Preview: Las Vegas Raiders

Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone: It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.

What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Las Vegas Raiders, looking at key questions like:

1. Is Jimmy Garoppolo worthy of late-round QB consideration?
2. What will Josh Jacobs’s 2023 encore look like in fantasy land?
3. Can Davante Adams keep on keeping on with a new QB under center?

Every fantasy-relevant player from the Raiders will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.

Notable offseason moves

From the front office, to the coaching staff, to the roster: Every 2023 NFL team will be different than its 2022 version.

Year two of the Josh McDaniels era is underway. The longtime Patriots offensive coordinator will once again be flanked by OC Mick Lombardi and DC Patrick Graham.

Ultimately, McDaniels is the one calling plays, and he proved willing to deploy a balanced attack during his first year in Las Vegas. Maybe this changes due to the new QB under center in 2023, but even the later New England years featured plenty of rushing:

• 2022 (Raiders): -3.5% (No. 19)
• 2021 (Patriots): -5.1% (No. 27)
• 2020 (Patriots): -11.8% (No. 32)
• 2019 (Patriots): 0% (No. 14)
• 2018 (Patriots): -0.3% (No. 16)
• 2017 (Patriots): +2.3% (No. 2)
• 2016 (Patriots): 0% (No. 15)

The Raiders ranked 25th in neutral situation pace last season: Don’t be surprised if there isn’t enough pass-game volume to consistently enable anyone other than Davante Adams to sustain fantasy excellence.

Additionally, the Raiders have made plenty of changes to their roster. The following QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs have either joined or left Las Vegas in some way, shape, or form this offseason:

• QB: Longtime franchise QB Derek Carr made his way to the Saints after being released. 2022 backup Jarrett Stidham (Broncos) also left during free agency. The Raiders replaced Carr with McDaniels’s old friend Jimmy Garoppolo (3 years, $72.75 million) while also bringing in another ex-Patriots QB Brian Hoyer (2 years, $4.5 million) to provide depth. Note that Jimmy G ($33.75 million) and even Hoyer ($4.205 million) received quite a bit of guaranteed money.
• RB: None.
• WR: Starter Mack Hollins joined the Falcons in free agency. This led to Las Vegas signing former Patriots slot maven Jakobi Meyers (3 years, $33 million) to a big deal with $21 million guaranteed, while they also brought in ex-Commanders WR Cam Sims (1 year, $1.232 million), ex-Chargers WR DeAndre Carter (1 year, $1.5 million), and ex-Texans WR Phillip Dorsett (1 year, $1.217 million) on small deals to provide depth.
• TE: Longtime stud TE Darren Waller was traded to the Giants in exchange for a third-round pick. Backup Foster Moreau joined the Saints in free agency. The Raiders signed former Falcons/Browns/Titans TE Austin Hooper (1 year, $2.75 million) and ex-Bucs/Texans TE O.J. Howard (1 year, $1.232 million) to provide depth at the position.

The Raiders added three fantasy-relevant players through the draft: Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer (2.35), Cincinnati WR Tre Tucker (3.100), and Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell (4.135). The former two players certainly have a better chance of contributing in 2023 and beyond if the history of draft capital has taught us anything.

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo (Ian’s QB29), Brian Hoyer (QB67)

Garoppolo never enjoyed the breakout season some hoped for in his time with the 49ers, but at least from a yards per attempt efficiency perspective he’s always been astoundingly good: No QB since the 1970 merger has averaged more yards per attempt than Jimmy G (8.3) with a minimum of 50 starts.

Of course, Jimmy G’s kryptonite over the years has been responding to a non-perfect environment: The 31-year-old finished below the NFL average in PFF pass grade versus pressure in four out of his last five seasons in San Francisco.

Reuniting with long-time Patriots OC Josh McDaniels *should* make for an easy enough transition for the 31-year-old veteran. Still—similar to Carr—there isn’t enough proof of high-end fantasy upside to get all that excited about Garoppolo’s 2023 possibilities (at least on the field):

• 2022: QB19 in fantasy points per game (10 starts)
• 2021: QB17 (15)
• 2020: QB38 (6)
• 2019: QB23 (16)
• 2018: QB21 (3)
• 2017: QB21 (5)

Here’s the catch: Garoppolo isn’t currently being priced as the low-end QB2 that he probably will be in Week 1 because of concern surrounding offseason foot surgery. 

News on the matter was revealed in May, with Raiders beat reporter Tashan Reed noting: “The quarterback's recovery timeline is unknown, but the sense is that the team is confident he'll be ready to play by the start of the regular season.”

Further concern around Garoppolo’s health came to fruition when it was revealed the Raiders can release him without any penalty for “any reason” involving his foot. However, Jimmy G’s $22.5 million salary becomes fully guaranteed once the veteran QB “passes a physical exam, is active for at least one regular-season game, and does not suffer re-injury to his left foot."

Ultimately, it seems awfully unlikely that McDaniels or anyone involved with the Raiders really wants to move forward with 37-year-old Brian Hoyer or fourth-round rookie Aidan O’Connell under center. McDaniels said he has “no anxiety” surrounding Garoppolo’s status.

It’d be a lot cooler if Garoppolo was fully healthy and getting extra reps with his new teammates, but this is something that the Raiders have been well aware of since March and accordingly haven’t made any major plays to solidify a backup option under center. For this reason I’m happy to take Garoppolo in the final round of best ball drafts on teams that already have his No. 1 WR.

RB: Josh Jacobs (Ian’s RB8), Zamir White (RB54)

Nobody had more total yards (2,053) or touches (393) than Jacobs in 2022. He did so in style: Arguably no RB was better in terms of maximizing broken tackles and yards after contact per carry in 2022.

There’s not much substance to the idea that RBs burn out after receiving a heavy workload the year before, and Jacobs’s 1,072 career NFL carries is still quite a bit below the 1,500 threshold that signifies when fantasy managers should begin to expect a decline in rushing yards over expectation.

It’s not a given that head coach Josh McDaniels will hand Jacobs the same sort of ridiculous workload in 2023, although the team’s decision to franchise tag the NFL’s reigning rushing king certainly seems to indicate he’ll once again be one of the league’s more well-fed backs…

…so long as said franchise tag ultimately gets signed.

Cryptic tweets have added fuel to the idea that Jacobs’s threats about holding out for a long-term deal could actually come to fruition. Still, other reports indicate both sides are motivated to get a deal done before the July 15 deadline.

Ultimately, we’ll know a lot more about the situation by that mid-July deadline—but until proven otherwise, I expect Jacobs to once again handle one of the league’s more fantasy-friendly workloads as the Raiders’ lead RB1. 

Only the Titans were more willing to give their lead RB 20- and 25-plus touches last year; I’ve loved the opportunity to draft one of the NFL’s rare remaining true every-down backs at the Round 2-3 turn all offseason.

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White also shouldn’t be discounted in the final round of fantasy drafts – especially while Jacobs’s franchise tag situation is unresolved. While it’s unlikely the rising second-year talent would get the same sort of workhorse role in the absence of Jacobs, he would profile as the leader for early-down work ahead of more one-dimensional pass-down veterans Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden.

Some offseason hype has already speculated that White could see an expanded role during the 2023 season regardless of Jacobs’s final status. Almost always available in literally the final round of offseason best ball drafts, White is a lowkey great handcuff pick who would be flirting with the position’s top-36 options in a hurry if thrust into the lead role.

WR: Davante Adams (Ian’s WR6), Jakobi Meyers (WR49), Hunter Renfrow (WR80), Tre Tucker (WR115)

Garoppolo has also done a good job enabling fantasy-friendly teammates over the years, leading each of George Kittle (85-1053-5 in 2019), Deebo Samuel (77-1405-6 in 2021), and Brandon Aiyuk (78-1015-8) north of the thousand-yard mark during his lone three seasons with 10-plus starts.

Only Justin Jefferson (184) demanded more targets than Adams (180) last season; head coach Josh McDaniels knows exactly who his offense’s No. 1 pass-game weapon is.

I mean, did you watch Adams last season? The man continued to look the part of perhaps the NFL’s single-best player at the position.

The potential for Jimmy G to 1.) Spreads things out a bit more than Adams’s fantasy managers would prefer, and 2.) Suddenly be on his way out of Las Vegas due to his ongoing foot issue keeps the veteran receiver out of the position’s top five, but there’s still more than enough high-end talent and volume upside here to fire up the 30-year-old veteran as a top-six option in 2023—just look at his 7-153-2 performance against the 49ers in Week 17 with Jarrett Stidham under center.

And then there’s Meyers, who got #paid to…maybe work as the team’s new starting slot WR?

It seems like a true 50/50 possibility that Renfrow will or won’t still be on the Raiders in 2023. If yes, he still profiles as the sort of shifty slot maven capable of creating separation at a moment’s notice even in the most condensed areas of the field.

If no, Meyers would suddenly be the heavy favorite to work as this passing game’s fairly undisputed No. 2 option coming off last year’s WR29 finish in PPR points per game. His six trips to the end zone last season were four more than he managed in 2019, 2020, and 2021 combined. 

The long-time New England Patriots slot maven has posted top-40 numbers in PFF receiving grade (80.9, No. 38) and targets per route run (21.4%, No. 35) among 129 wide receivers with 100-plus targets since 2019.

Both receivers are very solid real-life starters to have in three-WR sets, although it’s probably wishful thinking to expect anyone alongside Adams to seriously contend for bunches of targets. This is especially true as long as both wide-outs remain employed by the Raiders; I haven’t made a huge habit of overly targeting either player in early offseason drafts, although Renfrow will undoubtedly rise up the ranks at least a decent bit once his currently murky future is cleared up.

Tucker might find his way into three-WR sets if/when a Renfrow move winds up happening. This arguably makes him a reasonable last-round dart, although the pint-sized (5’9", 187 pounds) speedster (4.4-second 40-yard dash) might project as more of a gadget-type option at the NFL level than someone capable of maintaining a true full-time role on offense.

TE: Michael Mayer (Ian’s TE28), Austin Hooper (TE47), O.J. Howard (TE66)

Mayer’s collegiate film is littered with YAC-filled receptions that demonstrate his ability to make defenders miss by any means necessary.

While Zach Ertz has been a common comp for Mayer, his ability to win after the catch is more akin to a slightly slower Gerald Everett. Not bad either way!

Mayer earned a featured pass-game role as a true freshman and never looked back. Big-time production with improved efficiency every year for a dude who won’t turn 22 until July, is that something you might be interested in?

• 2022: 92.5 PFF grade, 67-809-9, 2.44 yards per route run, 31% targets per route run
• 2021: 80.6 PFF grade, 71-840-7, 1.99 yards per route run, 23% targets per route run
• 2020: 71 PFF grade, 42-450-2, 1.39 yards per route run, 18% targets per route run

There’s something to be said about the Notre Dame offense lacking much high-end competition, but Mayer’s 37% Dominator score as a junior is still rather incredible even with that context.

Most encouragingly, Mayer played all over the field during his time with the Fighting Irish, profiling as the sort of true every-down option who just might be able to earn a full-time role as a rookie.

Of course, this last qualifier is the primary issue with expecting much out of Mayer in 2023. Jordan Reed, Evan Engram, and Kyle Pitts are the only three top-12 PPR per game performers at the position over the past 10 years—none had to share the offense with the sort of target-hog monster like Mayer will be dealing with in Adams.

I’m not against a final-round dart on Mayer in the right league type—but what players aren’t reasonable enough options with a draft pick going outside of the top-200 selections? 

Ultimately, even guys like Trey McBride and Cade Otton profile as superior last-round darts; the presence of Hooper and Howard is enough to be concerned about Mayer finding enough immediate playing time to earn the sort of prerequisite volume needed to boom as a rookie at the position.

2023 win total: 6.5 (-115 juice on the over)

The 2022 Raiders went 6-11 and actually underachieved based on their expected 7.9-9.1 record based on point differential. Of course, this was due to one brutal blown lead after another including three 17-plus point efforts wiped out in the first eight games of the season.

The 2023 Raiders probably won’t go 4-9 in one-score games again, although the offense might not be in as good of hands with (hopefully) Jimmy G compared to longtime franchise QB Derek Carr.

Forced to operate in perhaps the best division in football, I gotta take under 6.5 wins for a team that seems to be stuck between figuring out if they want to contend or tank in the short term.

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