Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone: It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Miami Dolphins, looking at key questions like:
- Will Tua Tagovailoa explode in year two with head coach Mike McDaniel?
- Is Devon Achane poised to work as the featured back from day one?
- Are both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle deserving of top-12 WR fantasy treatment?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the Dolphins will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable Offseason Moves
From the front office, to the coaching staff, to the roster: Every 2023 NFL team will be different than its 2022 version.
Head coach Mike McDaniel and offensive coordinator Frank Smith are back to lead the league’s reigning 11th-ranked scoring unit. However, defensive coordinator Josh Boyer has been replaced by longtime mastermind Vic Fangio, who spent 2022 as a defensive consultant for the Eagles after serving as the Broncos' head coach from 2019 to 20221.
There are some similarities between what McDaniel and his former mentor Kyle Shanahan do offensively, although the former certainly made the Dolphins offense his own in 2022:
- Pass rate over expected: Dolphins (+1.9%, 7th), 49ers (-4.4%, 22nd)
- Pace: Dolphins (31.42, 19th), 49ers (32.38, 26th)
- Play-action rate: Dolphins (38%, 2nd), 49ers (22%, 24th)
- Motion rate: Dolphins (45.9%, 1st), 49ers (27.1%, 6th)
Additionally, the Dolphins have made plenty of changes to their roster. The following QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs have either joined or left Miami in some way, shape or form this offseason:
- QB: Backup QB Teddy Bridgewater remains a free agent. The Dolphins signed ex-Jets signal-caller Mike White (two-year, $8 million) to serve as the new backup for Tua Tagovailoa.
- RB: None.
- WR: Speedy backup WR Trent Sherfield signed with the Bills. The Dolphins accordingly added a trio of WRs in Chosen Anderson (one-year, $1.32 million), Braxton Berrios (one-year, $3.5 million) and Freddie Swain (one-year, $1 million) to add depth to the room.
- TE: The WR who we call a TE for whatever reason, Mike Gesicki, took his talents to New England, while backup TE Hunter Long now plays for the Rams. The Dolphins signed ex-Broncos TE Eric Saubert (one-year, $1.685 million) and veteran journeyman Tyler Kroft (one-year deal) to compete with presumed starter Durham Smythe.
The Dolphins only had four total draft picks to work with in April but came away with two fantasy-relevant players in Texas A&M RB Devon Achane (3.84) and Stanford WR Elijah Higgins (6.197). Of course, the former player is far more likely to make an impact in 2023 and beyond due to 1.) the history of draft capital and 2.) the reality that the pecking order in the Dolphins backfield is far less cemented than their WR room.
QB
- Tua Tagovailoa (Ian’s QB10)
- Mike White (QB34)
On the one hand, Tua led the NFL in passing TD rate (6.3%), yards per attempt (8.9), adjusted yards per attempt (9.2) and passer rating (105.5) in 2022. He was pretty damn good at throwing the football when healthy enough to suit up, even if the results weren’t quite as flashy as some of his peers at the position.
On the other hand, Tagovailoa only achieved a top-12 fantasy finish in 46% of his starts – the 15th-highest mark among QBs who played at least five games in 2022. The rising fourth-year QB needs to be one of the league’s most-efficient passers to make things work in fantasy land, as he hasn’t rushed for 50 yards in a game since high school.
Don’t get it twisted: Tua made some truly great throws at times in 2022. Nobody averaged more yards per attempt on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield.
Unfortunately, style points don’t count extra in fantasy land. However, Tua’s relative lack of playmaking ability and arm strength relative to guys like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen shouldn’t be held against him when setting the ole fantasy rankings.
The one big question here: How often do top-10 scoring offenses go on to repeat the feat in the following season? The Dolphins didn’t quite crack last season’s top-10 units (11th), but the amount of yearly turnover could give us a good idea of their chances of going from good to great.
My magic 8-ball just said the outlook is good.
Ultimately, a bet on Tua is a bet on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who last season recorded just the 18th instance of teammate WRs recording top-12 seasons in PPR points per game over the past decade. The average per-game QB finish from those qualifiers? QB7 – and 16 of 18 qualified signal-caller finished inside the position’s top-12.
And yet, Tagovailoa’s league-high 6.3% pass TD rate might be a sign of worse times to come. Plenty of research suggests this rate will dip in a potentially meaningful way in 2022.
Overall, 83 QBs have posted a TD rate of at least six percent with a minimum of eight starts since 2000. Among those who again started eight games the following season: A whopping 62 of 68 signal-callers (91%) saw their rate decline during their encore campaign.
The median (-1.7%) and mean (-1.65%) demonstrate that not every high-efficiency QB completely falls off a cliff the following year, but it’s still tough to be overly optimistic about Tua finding even more success filling up the stat sheet in 2023.
I’ve largely been deploying a “first or last” strategy at the position due to the upper end of the non-mobile QB tier being pushed up so far. But don’t overestimate our ability to discern the fantasy difference between pocket-passer types; I’d rather draft guys like Russell Wilson, Derek Carr and Jordan Love four-plus rounds later when not accounting for a best-ball stack.
RBs
- Devon Achane (Ian’s RB36)
- Jeff Wilson (RB48)
- Raheem Mostert (RB54)
Whoever winds up working as Miami’s lead back will certainly carry plenty of fantasy upside simply by existing in the league’s reigning 11th-ranked scoring offense. Although, no team was less willing to give their RBs 20-plus touches than the Dolphins last season.
Good thing the team’s third-round rookie is fast fast. Seriously. Achane’s straight-line speed is rather terrifying. The Texas A&M product made a habit of splitting defenders who seemingly had angles on him in college.
The Dolphins will objectively have the league’s fastest RB1, WR1 and WR2 combination in terms of combined 40-yard dash times should Achane win the starting job.
The key question: Do the Dolphins consider Achane (5’9, 188 pounds) big enough to handle something close to an every-down role?
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler wrote the following summary on the rookie in his always excellent pre-draft Beast:
“A one-year starter at Texas A&M, Achane shared carries with Isaiah Spiller in 2021 and became the featured back in 2022 in former offensive coordinator Darrell Dickey’s inside zone scheme. The 16th player in school history to surpass 1,000 rushing yards in a season, he was the only Power 5 player to score as a rusher, receiver and kick returner in 2022 and earned first-team All-SEC honors as both a running back and all-purpose back. He was also an All-American track athlete for the Aggies (Achane: “I’m a football player who just happens to also run track.”). An explosive player with the ball in his hands, Achane makes quick reads, collects his feet and accelerates out of his cuts with sprinting speed (at his best on counter plays). He isn’t getting much bigger, and each NFL team will feel differently about his projected workload and role. Overall, Achane’s undersized build understandably creates doubt about him as an every-down NFL back, but his vision and rare acceleration allow him to access run paths most backs can’t. With his added value as a receiver (a few NFL scouts project him best as a receiver) and returner, he has high-upside potential, similar in ways to Jahvid Best as a prospect.”
Plus, Greg Cosell is a noted believer in Achane’s ability to be more than a satellite back. So, at a minimum, it seems that a true starting role is firmly within the rookie’s range of outcomes.
Nov 26, 2022; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies running back Devon Achane (6) runs the ball during the second quarter against the LSU Tigers at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports
Of course, Mostert and Wilson re-signed with the Dolphins for a reason. While Wilson did rack up 15-plus combined carries and targets on four separate occasions last season, that stretch coincided with Mostert working through knee and thumb issues.
The only game that both played in that seemingly featured Mostert at 100% health saw the backs engage in a 49%/47% snap split, and neither managed to reach double-digit carries.
Ultimately, McDaniel’s willingness to feature Chase Edmonds (63% snaps, 16 touches) as the team’s Week 1 starter last season has me buying into the idea that Achane is the back to target in Miami.
Currently being drafted past the top 50 WRs and sitting as the RB35 overall, Achane is one of my favorite mid-round RB targets at the moment and someone with the potential to rocket up draft boards with some quality preseason usage/training camp news.
You can start drafting Achane today on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you create a new account. Sign up below and start drafting today!
WRs
- Tyreek Hill (Ian’s WR3)
- Jaylen Waddle (WR11)
- Chosen Anderson (WR112)
- Braxton Berrios (WR122)
- Cedrick Wilson (WR124)
Hill is a legit track star and set career-high marks in targets (170), receptions (119) and receiving yards (1,710) alike in his first season with the Dolphins. Without that dude Patrick Mahomes. Madness.
Cheetah’s game-by-game route trees look like a maze from one of those old National Geographic magazines you’d scan at the doctor’s office. Mike McDaniel has done a great job maximizing talent, as nobody utilized more pre-snap motion or shifts than the Dolphins last season, and it wasn’t particularly close.
You don’t need more than one hand to count the 1.) Real-life WRs better than Hill, or 2.) Fantasy options with more projected volume at the position. The only two WRs I’m drafting ahead of Hill are Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase – even then, I wouldn’t call someone crazy for firing up TyFreak as THE WR1 entering 2023.
And then there’s Waddle. Who is fast. Like, really fast.
Only two men averaged more yards per route run than Waddle (2.59) last season: Hill (3.2) and Jefferson (2.62).
Nobody with an average target depth of at least 5.5 yards was more lethal than Waddle in terms of yards after the catch (6.9).
Only Stefon Diggs (124.3) and Christian Watson (123.3) garnered a higher passer rating when targeted than Waddle (122.6) among 80 WRs with at least 50 targets.
However, there’s a potential “problem” with Waddle.
He had a workload closer to a WR3. In fact, his 12.9 expected PPR points per game ranked just 27th at the position. He joined A.J. Brown and Tyler Lockett as the only WRs with more than 40 fantasy points above expectation, which is cool in the sense that this means these guys are really freaking good.
But also not that cool in the sense that they don’t have much margin for error due to their relatively limited volume.
Waddle rather inexplicably averaged just 5.6 targets per game during the season's final seven weeks. The talent here might be outrageous, but at least in 2022, the Dolphins were more than willing to feature Hill as the true No. 1 option.
Waddle isn’t the only WR with this problem – only so many players are force-fed 150-plus targets per season – it’s still enough of a problem to keep him closer to the WR1 borderline despite last year’s overall PPR WR8 finish.
It’s risky business trusting any other WR in an offense so willing to force-feed their top-two options. This is truly one of the most concentrated passing attacks in the league.
TEs
- Durham Smythe (Ian’s TE40)
- Tyler Kroft (TE57)
- Eric Saubert (TE67)
This offense tied for last in targets to the TE (75) last season. That was with Mike Gesicki – who is essentially a WR – earning 52 pass-game opportunities in his own right.
Smythe's best career season was a 34-357-0 performance in 2021.
Kroft went for 42-404-7 back in 2017 but hasn't cleared 175 yards or caught 20 passes in a season since.
Saubert has a mediocre 33-280-2 receiving line in 74 career games.
Do you really think McDaniel wants to feature one of these TEs over his plethora of speed demons at WR and RB? None are realistic fantasy options outside of ridiculously deep TE premium dynasty leagues.
Even then: Meh.
2023 Win Total: 9.5 (-110 juice on the over)
The Dolphins’ reigning 24th-ranked scoring defense has a chance to get much better in a hurry thanks to the additions of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and CB Jalen Ramsey, who is still an above-average NFL corner (at worse) despite last season’s performance.
Reminder: Miami only lost by three points to the Bills IN BUFFALO during last year’s Wild Card round. With Skylar Thompson under center. With Mike McDaniel struggling to get plays in on time.
I’m buying the Dolphins to not only go over 9.5 wins but also to cash as AFC East champions (+300). Nobody is crowning Tua as the best – or even second best – QB in the division, but that didn’t stop the passing game from being absolutely lethal at full strength last season and a full offseason to get their ducks in a row at RB and on defense *should* provide a far more complete team than last year.
You can tail both their win total and their odds to win the AFC East on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new account. Create your account below and start betting today!
