2023 Team Preview: New York Giants

With free agency and the NFL Draft having come and gone, it’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before fantasy draft season truly gets underway.

Here is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the New York Giants, looking at key questions like:

1. Was 2022 a fluke or a sign of bigger things to come from Daniel Jones?
2. Does Saquon Barkley deserve to be drafted as a top-five fantasy RB?
3. Who will rise to the top of this crowded passing game?

Every fantasy-relevant player from the Giants will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for all-encompassing fantasy football coverage on each of the 32 NFL teams.

Offseason moves

From the front office to the coaching staff to the roster, every NFL team will be different in 2023 compared to their respective 2022 version.

And yet, the Giants managed to bring back all the key parties from their coaching staff. Reigning head coach of the year Brian Daboll will once again be flanked by offensive coordinator Mike Kafka and defensive coordinator Don Martindale. Collectively, the trio will enter their second year together with far higher expectations after managing to notch a Wild Card win over the Vikings in 2022.

The $160 million question heading into 2023 is whether or not Daboll and company will feel more comfortable fully handing the offense over to their franchise QB.

Last year, the Giants ranked just 24th in pass rate over expectation (-5.6%) while operating at just the 20th-fastest pace in neutral situations. This was typically a run-first, slow-moving offense that also didn’t make a habit of stretching the field. New York's 6.5 average depth of target (aDOT) was third-lowest in the league behind only the Chargers (6.4) and Colts (6.3).

Additionally, the Giants have made plenty of changes to their roster. While they didn't make any moves at QB or RB, New York has made some significant moves at WR and TE this offseason.

Much-maligned free agent signing Kenny Golladay remains a free agent, but at least we’ll always have that one TD, and auxiliary WR Marcus Johnson is also out of the picture. Richie James was sneakily pretty solid with a 57-569-4 receiving line in 2022 but took his talents to Kansas City. To replace them, the Giants' solution was to sign various contributors in Parris Campbell (one-year, $4.7 million), Jamison Crowder (one-year, $1.3 million), and Jeff Smith (one-year, $1.2 million) in free agency.

Sep 18, 2022; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller (83) makes a touchdown catch over Arizona Cardinals linebacker Ezekiel Turner (47) in the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

New York's biggest addition this offseason was trading for TE Darren Waller from the Raiders. While it cost them a third-round pick to acquire him, Waller has more 1,000-yard receiving seasons (2) than the rest of the team’s WRs combined (0) and could potentially lead the team in receiving this coming season.

In addition to their free-agent signings, the Giants also drafted Tennessee WR Jalin Hyatt (3.73) and Oklahoma RB Eric Gray (5.172).

Hyatt possesses game-changing speed and provides a field-stretching element that has been missing from this offense for quite some time, and he could quickly become a starter in three-WR sets. Gray figures to compete for backup snaps alongside Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell, so don’t be surprised if Gray fails to put up big-time fantasy numbers as a rookie, as is usually the case with Day 3 rookies.

QBs

• Daniel Jones (Ian’s QB13)
• Tyrod Taylor (QB43)

Jones has started 54 games since the Giants drafted him sixth overall back in 2019. His rookie season produced some booms, as Jones actually had more 30-plus fantasy point performances than any rookie QB other than Lamar Jackson, but 2020 and 2021 largely consisted of Jason Garrett-induced nightmares for Jones both in real life and in fantasy.

That said, fantasy GMs were thrilled about Jones’s performance in 2022. As one of just eight QBs to average at least 18 fantasy points per game (PPG) last season, Jones largely ran his way to high-end fantasy relevance on a Giants offense devoid of pretty much any high-end pass-game options.

Seriously, Jones’s nickname of “Vanilla Vick” has some legs, as the man became one of just nine QBs to ever register a season with 3,000-plus passing yards and over 700 rushing yards last year. In fact, Jones ranked fifth among QBs in fantasy PPG from pure rushing production in 2022:

1. Justin Fields (10.8)
2. Jalen Hurts (10.3)
3. Lamar Jackson (7.9)
4. Josh Allen (7.4)
5. Daniel Jones (7.1)

Additionally, only Fields (52.5%), Hurts (40%), and Jackson (38.5%) had a higher percentage of their fantasy points come from rushing production than Jones (38%). Jones may not look the part, but he can legit scoot.

The question becomes whether or not Jones can take after his head coach’s former protégé, Josh Allen, and begin to mix in some elite passing production alongside the rushing goodness.

It’s tough to be overly critical about Jones’s passing numbers from last season because of lack of pass-catching talent. The team’s top-four WRs entering Week 1 were Golladay (mannequin), Sterling Shepard (torn ACL in Week 3), Kadarius Toney (traded to the Chiefs) and Wan’Dale Robinson (played only six games due to injury). None of these WRs were contributors, and Jones made the most out of Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins, among others.

Jones deserves credit for finding a way to improve as a passer during his short four-year career, even if the final product (to this point) still isn’t all that great.

In fantasy, Jones will join rookie QB Anthony Richardson as potential dual-threat aliens who are still works-in-progress as passers in the middle rounds of 2023 drafts. Both are perfectly fine targets, as their current Underdog ADPs are both outside of the top-10 QBs and outside of the top-90 overall picks as of this writing.

I’ve preferred deploying a “first or last” strategy for drafting QBs in best ball due to the position flying off the board at a ridiculously fast rate, but Jones stands out as a middle-class QB with the potential to soar higher should his passing production improve even moderately from his 2022 numbers.

Add in his plethora of affordable stacking partners, and at cost, I actually prefer building around Jones in best ball at ADP over more expensive options like Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa.

RBs

• Saquon Barkley (Ian’s RB4)
• Matt Breida (RB60)
• Eric Gray (RB89)

The good news is that Barkley finished as the PPR RB5 on both an overall and per-game basis in 2022. This wasn’t fluky, as Barkley's 17.9 expected PPR PPG trailed only Austin Ekeler (20.4), Joe Mixon (19.0), and Christian McCaffrey (18.6) last year.

The bad news is that Barkley wasn’t exactly his prime self with the football in his hands. He was certainly better than what we saw from him in 2020 and 2021, but the 2018 and 2019 version of the former No. 2 overall pick was a different monster.

And that’s only looking at when Barkley was running the ball; he averaged just 5.7 PPR PPG as a receiver in 2022, a full 6.0 points removed from his average PPR PPG as a rookie (11.7).

Of course, his lack of efficiency from his peak didn’t lead to diminishing returns in fantasy points, so one could argue that Barkley being as productive as he was despite middling efficiency makes him an even better 2023 investment since the workload doesn’t seem to be going anywhere.

And if Barkley can return to form this coming season and pulls out some of his old magical explosiveness again, look the hell out.

Still just 26 years old, Barkley doesn’t have any age cliff concerns and figures to once again work as the Giants’ three-down workhorse. Only the Titans and Raiders were more willing to feed their RBs 20-plus touches per game last season.

The only RBs I have ranked higher than Barkley at the moment heading into 2023 are McCaffrey, Ekeler, and Bijan Robinson. I also have Tony Pollard and Josh Jacobs just behind Barkley in the same tier, so don’t be afraid to scoop up one (or even two!) of these RBs with Barkley given the fact that WRs are flying off the board before RBs faster than ever.

And finally, if Barkley were to miss time in 2023, Breida would be the preferred waiver wire addition. The speedy backup posted an elite 70% snap rate in Week 18 with Barkley resting, although No. 3 RB Gary Brightwell did see more rushing attempts (11) than Breida (4) in that game. While it’s fine to draft Breida as a last-round best ball dart throw, his handcuff value isn’t solidified enough to warrant anything more.

You can target him as your dart throw on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you create a new account. Sign up below and start drafting today!

WRs

• Wan’Dale Robinson (Ian’s WR54)
• Jalin Hyatt (WR57)
• Darius Slayton (WR84)
• Parris Campbell (WR89)
• Isaiah Hodgins (WR93)
• Sterling Shepard (WR104)
• Jamison Crowder (WR124)

The Giants' WR room is quite the muddled mess, but there might just be some value there considering that they all have extremely cheap ADPs.

Hyatt presently has the highest ADP of the group and is one of just seven “No. 1” WRs with an ADP of WR36 or later. The rookie seems deserving of leading the team's WRs in ADP given his field-stretching skillset standing out in an otherwise slot-filled WR room, and it’d be rather shocking if he doesn’t become a starter in three-WR sets sooner rather than later.

Of course, being the primary deep-ball threat in an offense that posted the league’s third-lowest aDOT is like having the best raincoat in Nevada. It could prove to be useless. Hyatt’s rather steep learning curve coming out of the wide-open Tennessee offense could prevent him from seeing a high target share on a passing offense that was reluctant to feature any one WR last season.

In addition to Hyatt, two returning faces are Robinson and Shepard, both of whom are returning from ACL injuries. I’m more confident in Robinson’s recovery at 22 years old than in Shepard's at age 30, especially with both Dr. Jeff Mueller and Dr. Edwin Porras believing Week 1 to be a realistic return date for Robinson.

Assuming the Giants still value the second-year WR who they selected 43rd overall las year, Robinson profiles as the best Giants WR to bet on behind Hyatt. If he's healthy, Robinson should play more snaps than Campbell and Crowder, both of whom were signing to relatively small one-year deals. 

Still, Robinson will need to demand targets at an elite rate in order to make up for life on an offense that ranked among the league’s bottom-10 units in expected WR PPR PPG last season. It’s hardly a guarantee considering the plethora of available bodies New York has at WR, but Robinson’s per-route numbers as a rookie were at least encouraging prior to his injury:

• 70.9 PFF receiving grade (46th among 115 qualifying WRs)
• 1.76 yards per route run (YPRR) (tied for 35th)
• 23.3% targets per route run (TPRR) (20th)

By the end of last year, Slayton and Hodgins were the only two full-time WRs. Credit to Slayton for logging his third 700-plus yard season in four years and to Hodgins for scoring five TDs in his final seven games. Slayton’s numbers still weren’t good enough to produce top-48 production in PPR points per game, while Hodgins did impress to an extent with 11.5 PPR points per game with the Giants – good for the 38th-highest mark at the position.

Heading into 2023, the Giants' two outside WRs look to be a rotation between Slayton, Hodgins, Hyatt, and Shepard (if healthy). Meanwhile, Robinson is the favorite to command slot duties, although the overlapping skill sets with Campbell and Crowder makes his role uncertain.

Long story short, Robinson is my favorite late-round lottery ticket even if none of the Giants' WRs are likely to produce a top-36 WR finish splitting snaps and targets on a run-first offense. Still, the muddled nature of the group also presents opportunity, so don’t be afraid to throw some darts at Hodgins and Slayton way late in drafts, especially if you took Jones as one of your QBs.

TEs

• Darren Waller (Ian’s TE5)
• Daniel Bellinger (TE49)

One of the biggest moves during free agency for New York was landing their newly #rich QB arguably the most proven pass-game weapon of his young career. The Giants used the third-round draft pick they received for Toney from the Chiefs to acquire Waller from the Raiders.

Waller is one of the league's top receiving threats at the position when healthy, demonstrated by his blistering 90-1145-3 and 107-1196-9 receiving lines from 2019 and 2020. Alas, injuries have robbed him of a chance to replicate those feats over the past two seasons, as ankle, knee, and hamstring issues have limited the one-time Pro Bowler to just 20 regular season games since 2021.

While Waller might be a bit long in the tooth, his NFL career really never got going until 2019 due to off-field issues, and the TE position historically does a better job producing elderly high-end fantasy assets than any other skill position outside of QBs.

The real allure of this deal comes down to the lack of elite pass-game competition elsewhere in the offense. The team’s aforementioned crowded and injured WR room doesn’t appear to possess an alpha target hog capable of rendering Waller as a clear-cut No. 2 option, leaving the ex-Raider as one of very few TEs who has a realistic chance to lead his team in targets.

Jones hasn't put up massive passing stats during his tenure so far, but Waller could see a ton of target volume this coming season if the Giants don't make any meaningful additions to their pass-catching group before Week 1.

I’m happy to be higher than consensus on Waller (ADP of TE7) at the moment, as I believe he deserves to be ranked in the second tier of TEs alongside Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, and Dallas Goedert. With Waller standing out as the cheapest option of the group at the moment, he’s a prime mid-round pick usually available after the top-24 RBs and top-36 WRs are already off the board.

2023 Win Total: 7.5

• -122 juice on the over

The Giants overachieved a bit in 2022 considering that they went 9-7-1 with an expected record (based on points scored and allowed) of 8.3 to 8.7 wins. New York was then largely willing to pay the guys from last season who got them into the Divisional Round, so most of the key contributors from last year will maintain similar roles in 2023.

There hasn’t been a repeat NFC East champion in 18 years, and the Giants haven't won the division since 2011. I don’t expect the Giants to beat out the Eagles, or even the Cowboys, for the NFC East’s top spot, but the 7.5 win total line feels a bit low for a team with room to grow heading into Year 2 with stability at QB and the same coaching staff.

This was also a bottom-seven unlucky team in terms of Football Outsiders’ adjusted games lost to injury metric in 2022, so I like the over on 7.5 wins for the Giants in 2023 even without projecting them to win their division.

You can bet their over and get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account. All you have to do is click the link below and deposit at least $5 to get started!