Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone: It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the New York Jets, looking at key questions like:
- Just how high should expectations be for Aaron Rodgers’ comeback szn?
- Does Breece Hall deserve to be drafted as a top-10 fantasy RB?
- Could Garrett Wilson emerge as a top-10 producer at the position?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the Jets will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable Offseason Moves
From the front office, to the coaching staff, to the roster: Every 2023 NFL team will be different than its 2022 version. The Jets are no different.
Robert Saleh is back for his third season as the head ball coach with defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich once again by his side, but the Jets “parted ways” with offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur in favor of ex-Packers OC and, more recently, Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett.
A quick look at Hackett’s offenses from the Jaguars (2016-2018) to the Packers (2019-2021) and Broncos (2022) reveals that he’s not attached to one single ideology in terms of pass rate over expected and situation-neutral pace:
- 2022: -2.1% pass rate over expected (No. 14), 20.91 seconds per play (No. 15)
- 2021: +3.7% (No. 5), 30.78 (No. 12)
- 2020: +2.4% (No. 8), 32.83 (No. 32)
- 2019: +2.6% (No. 5), 31.06 (No. 18)
- 2018: 0% (No. 13), 32.27 (No. 25)
- 2017: -6% (No. 30), 30.12 (No. 13)
- 2016: +1% (No. 10), 30.08 (No. 9)
The Jets ranked 16th and 12th in PROE and pace last season. So, it’s not a given that this offense moves back to the sort of pass-heavy scheme that Packers head coach/play-caller Matt LaFleur and Hackett established with Rodgers from 2019 to 2021.
Additionally, the Jets have made plenty of changes to their roster. The following QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs have either joined or left New York this offseason:
- QB: You might have heard the Jets traded for longtime Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. Less-heralded transitions featured 2022 backups Joe Flacco (free agent) and Mike White (signed with the Dolphins) leaving town, but the Jets went ahead and also added another former Packers QB in Tim Boyle, just in case.
- RB: Backup RB James Robinson signed with the Patriots, while Ty Johnson remains an unrestricted free agent.
- WR: Complementary WRs Braxton Berrios (Dolphins), Elijah Moore (Browns) and Jeff Smith (Giants) will all be playing for new employers in 2023. They were accordingly replaced by two of Rodgers’ BFFs in Allen Lazard (four-year, $44 million) and Randall Cobb (one-year, $2.88 million). Speedy ex-Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman (one-year, $4 million) should also be plenty involved.
- TE: None.
The Jets only added two day-three players to their skill-position cores during the draft: Pittsburgh RB Israel Abanikanda (5.143) and Old Dominion TE Zack Kuntz (7.22). The history of draft capital tells us not to expect much of anything from players drafted outside of the first three rounds. That said, Abanikanda is a pretty great athlete who showed the ability to make the most of a big workload during his time at Pitt.
QB
- Aaron Rodgers (Ian’s QB15)
- Zach Wilson (QB57)
The Ringer’s Steven Ruiz wrote a great breakdown of what went wrong for Rodgers during his career-worst 2022 campaign. While Steven concedes that Rodgers might no longer be an elite QB and has lost some mobility, he notes:
“Rodgers spun the football as well as he had in previous years; the decline in his production and performance was caused by what was happening before and after the throws.”
This certainly doesn’t appear to be a 2015 Peyton Manning or 2020 Drew Brees situation where a future Hall of Fame QB watches their arm strength betray them. There were plenty of examples throughout 2022 of Rodgers making some rather ridiculous throws.
Does this look like a man who is washed?
Of course, Rodgers can still be capable of making big-time throws and not exactly be the same fantasy world-beater. In 2022, his 217 pass yards per game were a full 22 yards below his previous all-time single-season low. It’s been three full seasons since A-aron has averaged double-digit rushing yards per game.
Elderly QBs have been far superior fantasy options compared to olds at any other position. Just realize we’ve almost certainly already seen Rodgers play the best football of his career, both in real life and in fantasy land.
- 2022: 14.1 fantasy points per game (QB22)
- 2021: 20.8 (QB7)
- 2020: 23.9 (QB3)
- 2019: 17.4 (QB13)
- 2018: 19.6 (QB10)
- 2017: 18.5 (QB5)
- 2016: 23.8 (QB1)
- 2015: 18.8 (QB9)
- 2014: 22.1 (QB1)
- 2013: 18.8 (QB4)
And then there’s this idea that the Jets offer a markedly improved offensive environment. This probably shouldn’t be assumed:
Offensive line: The Jets’ theoretical fully healthy offensive line has some nice potential, but they ultimately finished last season as PFF’s 31st-ranked group. The Packers finished third.
Backfield: Rising second-year RB Breece Hall is a stud, but do he and Michael Carter signify THAT big of an upgrade over Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon?
Pass-catchers: A similar sentiment is true when looking at WR and TE. I’d take Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis, Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman and Randall Cobb over Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Lazard and Cobb. But this also isn’t exactly a consensus top-10 group.
Ultimately, this feels a little like Russell Wilson to the Broncos-esque just in terms of the assumed upgrade in the offensive environment. Go ahead and call the Jets’ WR and TE rooms better than the Packers, but that improvement could very well be judged as a wash when considering the potential fallout in offensive line performance.
Obviously adding Rodgers to the fold was a great move for the Jets’ real-life championship aspirations, but I’m fading the idea that this new offense and a healthier thumb magically turns the four-time MVP back into one of fantasy’s top assets.
I have Rodgers in a high-end QB2 tier with fellow pocket passers Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins. They’re all three QBs who I have not gone out of my way to draft due to the ability to get similar archetypes like Matthew Stafford and Jimmy Garoppolo 50-plus picks later.
Final note: While the Jets would likely be (again) screwed on offense should Rodgers miss time, don’t underestimate how fun it can be watching Wilson do his thing for better and (mostly worse). My Wilson comp is if Patrick Mahomes was forced to play every game blackout drunk.
RBs
- Breece Hall (Ian’s RB11)
- Michael Carter (RB59)
- Israel Abanikanda (RB70)
- Zonovan Knight (RB85)
Hall tore his ACL in Week 7 last season but has minimal meniscus damage, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Dr. Edwin Porras says to expect a very similar recovery to what Saquon Barkley had in 2021 (hopefully without the fluke re-aggravation). Dr. Jeff Mueller notes that Hall is trending toward being a full go by Week 1 (although he’s far more concerned about Javonte William’s recovery).
The first few weeks have the potential to be annoying, but early reports indicate the rising second-year talent is “expected to be ready for Week 1.”
To be clear, I’m not holding this injury against Hall when it comes to his 2023 fantasy ranking. The more concerning possibility is that he won’t receive the sort of ridiculous workload needed to post top-10 fantasy numbers.
Reminder: New offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett also found himself coaching a studly second-year RB in Javonte Williams last year in Denver. Fantasy managers weren’t thrilled even before Williams was lost for the season.
It’s worth noting that Hackett and the Packers also didn’t make a habit of force-feeding No. 1 RB Aaron Jones over the years, although the Jets OC did give young Leonard Fournette some big-time workloads during his years in Jacksonville.
Nobody is debating Hall’s standing as an awesome young RB. No RB averaged more yards per carry (5.8) or had a better Elusive Rating (100) than the Jets’ rising second-year RB among 55 backs with at least 75 carries last year. Throw in a CMC-esque two yards per route run, and it’s easy to envision Hall putting up bonkers fantasy numbers with a featured role.
Hall worked as the RB7 in PPR points per game last season, but he fell to the RB12 in expected PPR points per game. The good news is that the Jets’ lack of serious offseason investment in the position is a good sign that Hall will work as the clear lead back in 2022.
I had a hard time getting behind Hall’s early offseason ADP as the overall RB8, but am much more fine throwing some darts at him as more of a borderline RB1. While I have guys like Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb and Rhamondre Stevenson ranked higher – they’re pretty damn good, too – Hall comes in ahead of veteran backs like Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook in addition to less proven fellow youngsters like Jahmyr Gibbs and Travis Etienne.
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And then there’s Carter, who took a step back in 2022 after posting the position’s second-best missed tackle forced rate as a rookie. A late-season ankle sprain didn’t help matters, but even before that, the Jets proved unwilling to hand him a featured role by keeping Ty Johnson involved and even trading for James Robinson.
While Carter could leap into the RB3 discussion with an injury to Hall, his lack of steady standalone value and minimal best-case upside leaves him outside my top 50 players at the position.
WRs
- Garrett Wilson (Ian’s WR10)
- Allen Lazard (WR69)
- Mecole Hardman (WR93)
- Corey Davis (WR99)
- Randall Cobb (WR115)
- Denzel Mims (WR116)
There’s a lot to like about Wilson entering his second professional season. Seemingly moving at a different frequency than everyone else on the field most of the time, Wilson’s twitchy athleticism pops off the film as both a route-runner and with the ball in his hands.
The results in 2022 produced a rather awesome mixtape of success filled with plenty of big plays.
While the Ohio State product did benefit from Davis missing four games, Wilson’s average of 9.9 targets per game after the team’s Week 10 bye reflects the reality that he was the engine of this offense down the stretch.
The question is whether or not his top-10 ADP is just a bit too high. Wilson’s numbers without Zach Wilson under center were WR1 worthy (makes sense), but on the season, he was more of a WR2-3 type.
- PFF receiving grade: 85.9 (No. 9 among 80 qualified WR)
- Passer rating when targeted: 91.5 (No. 48)
- Yards per route run: 1.85 (No. 26)
- Yards per reception: 13.3 (No. 25)
- Yards after the catch per reception: 4.7 (No. 25)
- Targets per route run: 23.4% (No. 17)
Ultimately, my Wilson WR10 ranking places him just behind fellow studs like Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb, who boast more continuity in terms of both their QB and WR teammates.
I’ll still take Wilson ahead of guys like Tee Higgins, Calvin Ridley and Chris Olave, among others. But Wilson’s present top-10 ADP at the position sure seems lofty, considering the possibility that Rodgers doesn’t exactly treat him like prime Davante Adams.
The reason why the latter sentiment could be true is due to the presence of old friends Lazard and Cobb, fellow offseason addition Hardman and incumbent starter Davis. None are expected to truly challenge for Wilson’s No. 1 spot.
Although, would it be the most shocking thing in the world if the total targets to the offense’s top dog verge closer to 120 than 150?
Jan 8, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (17) runs past Miami Dolphins linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel (43) during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
The complementary receivers involved will rise up the ranks more as we get additional information on the pecking order – unfortunately, the potential for Lazard, Davis, Cobb and Hardman to form a four-WR rotation of sorts in the remaining two starting spots alongside Wilson could render each as non-viable fantasy assets more weeks than not.
I give Lazard (the reigning WR34 in PPR points per game) the nod for now, but believe the ultimate answer to which WR to draft behind Wilson is simply: No.
TEs
- Tyler Conklin (Ian’s TE26)
- C.J. Uzomah (TE52)
- Jeremy Ruckert (TE69)
Conklin has ripped off 61-593-3 and 58-552-3 receiving lines over the past two seasons. This puts him in decent company as one of just nine players at the position with 50-plus catches and 500-plus yards in each of the past two seasons.
The latter debut campaign with the Jets featured some true fantasy highs, as the ex-Vikings talent peeled off overall TE1, TE3 and TE8 finishes over the course of the year.
Why isn’t Conklin ranked higher with a massive QB upgrade in town? Because his near-every-down role dissipated when fellow 2022 offseason addition Uzomah was healthy. Overall, Conklin posted 92%, 100% and 96% snap rates in three games without Uzomah but finished between 61% and 81% the rest of the season.
It’s hardly impossible for a TE to post solid fantasy numbers without a true every-down role. However, the problem is the team’s new offensive coordinator made a habit of deploying TE committees in both Green Bay and Denver. And it’s not like Rodgers himself has ever gone too far out of his way to force-feed anyone at the position.
Dec 18, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets tight end C.J. Uzomah (87) celebrates his touchdown with tight end Tyler Conklin (83) during the first half against the Detroit Lions at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Conklin is a solid final two-round dart in best-ball tournaments – especially on teams with Rodgers and/or Browns pass-catchers (Week 17 correlating szn, baby) – but Uzomah and 2022 third-round TE Ruckert should be involved enough to keep all three outside of the TE1 fantasy conversation more weeks than not.
2023 Win Total: 9.5 (-130 juice on the over)
Rodgers and (hopefully) healthy offensive tackles alone should make the league’s reigning 29th-ranked offense at least something close to average – if not a legit top-10 unit.
Throw in a defense that went from 32nd to fourth in points per game allowed during their second season under Saleh, and it’s easy to see why the Jets boast the league’s sixth-best Super Bowl odds.
Ultimately, this line feels about right. I’d recommended staying away from this division capable of going in several different directions. But if forced to pick: Give me under 9.5 wins as a fade against a soon-to-be 40-year-old QB who has seemingly flirted with retirement for years, drastically changing the trajectory of a team that isn’t exactly guaranteed to dominate the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball.
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