2023 Team Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers

Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone. It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.

What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Pittsburgh Steelers, looking at key questions like:

1. Will Kenny Pickett have more fantasy-friendly moments in Year 2?
2. Can Najee Harris continue to hold off Jaylen Warren and maintain his workhorse role?
3. Is Diontae Johnson the cheapest target hog WR in all of fantasy football?

Every fantasy-relevant player from the Steelers will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.

Notable Offseason Moves

From the front office to the coaching staff to the roster, every NFL team will be different in 2023 compared to their respective 2022 version.

Mike Tomlin returns for his 16th year leading the Steelers, and he'll once again be flanked by offensive coordinator Matt Canada and defensive coordinator Teryl Austin.

Steelers fans and fantasy GMs alike weren’t too happy about Canada getting another opportunity to run the offense after producing rather mediocre 21st and 26th ranks in scoring offense over the past two seasons, respectively. Pittsburgh's lack of offensive efficiency in 2022 was particularly disappointing considering backup QB Mason Rudolph’s assertion that Canada would finally get to run “his offense” last year.

Rudolph said of Canada: "he’s a play-action guy, he’s a push the ball down the field kind of guy.” Canada lived up to the latter part of that equation, but certainly not the former. Here's how the Steelers' offense has ranked in play-action rate and average depth of target (aDOT) over the last two seasons under Canada:

• 2022: 17.8% play action (29th); 8.2 yard aDOT (11th)
• 2021: 19.2% play action (31st); 6.7 yard aDOT (31st)

On top of these low play-action rates and aDOTs, Pittsburgh's offense also ranked low in pass rate over expected (-3.6%, 20th) and situational neutral pace (31.18 seconds per play, 18th) last year. Unless Canada makes some sizable shifts to his offensive scheme, it might be wishful thinking to expect more than one or two high-end fantasy pass-catchers to emerge in Pittsburgh even if Pickett improves as a sophomore.

Additionally, the Steelers have made plenty of changes to their roster. The following QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs either joined or left Pittsburgh following the start of free agency this offseason:

• QB: None
• RB: Backups Benny Snell and Jeremy McNichols remain free agents.
• WR: Steven Sims signed with the Texans. Pittsburgh then accordingly made a mini splash by swapping late-round picks with the Rams to acquire Allen Robinson.
• TE: None

Georgia TE Darnell Washington (3.93) was the Steelers’ only fantasy-relevant addition with their seven draft picks. While Washington boasts some borderline-erotic athletic traits, the learning curve at TE has historically been steeper than any other position when it comes to early-career fantasy success.

QBs

• Kenny Pickett (Ian’s QB23)
• Mitch Trubisky (QB62)

There were some true flashes from Pickett down the stretch of 2022, as the rookie led the Steelers to a 6-2 record in his final eight starts with the only downfalls being narrow losses to strong Bengals (37-30) and Ravens (16-14) squads.

The problem is that Pickett's clutch late-game throws don’t count for extra points in fantasy land, and the fact that he didn't have a single game with multiple passing TDs as a rookie largely nuked his fantasy production. Overall, Pickett's 11.5 fantasy points per game (PPG) ranked just 29th among 32 QBs who started at least eight games in 2022.

Pickett joined his No. 1 WR as one of the biggest underperformers in fantasy last season based on the difference between his expected fantasy PPG vs. his actual fantasy PPG.

Only Pickett, David Carr, Kyle Orton, Bruce Gradkowski, Jimmy Clausen, Mitchell Trubisky, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson have failed to throw for even 10 TDs with the benefit of 10-plus starts in their first season since 2000. It's hardly encouraging that Pickett joined this unenviable list of lackluster rookie QBs, as none of the others have found fantasy success with the exception of Fields's rushing production.

Further complicating matters was the reality that Pickett wasn’t exactly a diamond in the rough. The Steelers’ combined run, receiving, pass-blocking, and run-blocking grades ranked 15th in the NFL last season per Pro Football Focus (PFF), so it's not as if Pickett lacked surrounding talent.

In fact, Pittsburgh managed to start the same five linemen in every game in 2022. That said, it’s not like Pickett’s teammates never let him down.

Also, while Pickett may not be built in the same mold as Fields, Pickett's 55-237-3 rushing line in 13 games was nothing to scoff at. This is the same guy who pulled off the fake slide once upon a time, and Pickett's rushing potential does increase his fantasy floor and ceiling a bit heading into 2023.

Still, QBs like Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence helped prove that a scheme overhaul and better teammates are sometimes needed to quickly turn a first-round bust into a boom in a hurry, and the 2023 Steelers haven’t changed much other than adding 29-year-old Allen Robinson to the mix at WR.

Here’s to hoping Pickett doesn’t lose his playbook again and finds his footing in a major way, but it’s tough to warrant going out of your way to land him in traditional redraft fantasy leagues. Of course, best ball strategy necessitates stacking when possible, so Pickett is plenty viable in best ball formats at his lowly ADP for teams that took Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, or Pat Freiermuth earlier in drafts.

RBs

• Najee Harris (Ian’s RB15)
• Jaylen Warren (RB43)

Harris wasn’t quite as good in 2022 compared to 2021 in terms of raw yards per carry (3.8 vs. 3.9) and yards per target (5.0 vs. 4.3), but that’s not why he went from RB7 in PPR PPG all the way down to RB19.

The reason for his precipitous fall from grace in fantasy production last season was largely due to a reduction in target volume as a receiver. Old man Ben Roethlisberger fed Harris a ridiculous 94 targets as a rookie in 2021, but that total was nearly cut in half down to 53 targets in 2022. This dropped Harris’s expected PPR PPG from 19.7 (RB2 behind only Derrick Henry!) to 14.9 (RB12).

While Harris deserves credit for never having missed a game yet and being able to hurdle, truck, and spin his way around defenders of all shapes and sizes, his lack of big-play ability makes it tough for him to overcome any sort of volume decline. This is especially true playing on a Steelers offense that ranked 21st and 26th in scoring in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

Of course, it’s certainly possible that Harris could see a bit better TD luck near the goal line this coming season.

Imagine if even half of those close calls had resulted in TDs. An additional four TDs last year would've bumped Harris up to RB12 in PPR PPG in 2022.

The problem with drafting Harris at his current RB13 ADP on Underdog is that borderline RB1 production could be his ceiling barring a major shift in offensive scheme or workload. Any combination of improved offense, efficiency, and/or volume would make Harris a bargain at his current ADP…if he can hold off Jaylen Warren.

Warren made more out of his opportunities as a rookie last year than Harris did, which led to Warren earning more work as the season progressed. In fact, the rookie saw at least a 30% snap rate in six of his seven healthy games following the team’s Week 12 bye. This wasn’t previously the norm under Tomlin, as seven of Harris’s 12 least-used games in terms of offensive snap rate occurred during the final nine weeks of 2022.

It’s tough to blame the Steelers for giving Warren more work over the second half of last season, though. The rookie RB was out-performing Harris in just about every facet of the game.

That said, it’s not fair to assume that Warren would have maintained his efficiency advantages over Harris had their workloads been reversed. Harris’s numbers also improved – albeit still not as good as Warren's – after he had a steel plate removed from his cleat.

However, the other assumption I had that Warren may have faced lighter boxes was quickly proven incorrect. Harris (40.4%) and Warren (40.3%) each faced eight or more defenders in the box on a nearly identical percentage of carries last season. Warren also had superior usage in fantasy-friendly third-down situations.

It’s unreasonable to expect Warren to straight up take over this backfield, but the back half of 2022 already demonstrated that at a minimum, Mike “I’m a featured runner-type guy” Tomlin is willing to reduce Harris’s previously ridiculous workload from the 2021 season.

Right now, Harris is being drafted at about the point where I’m moving onto WRs and/or taking Jahmyr Gibbs a few picks later. Meanwhile, I have drafted more Warren than any other player at the position thanks to his cheap ADP and elite handcuff upside in an offense that historically has been more willing to simply leave one RB on the field for an entire 60 minutes, as they did in 2022.

You can grab some shares of Warren late on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below!

WRs

• Diontae Johnson (Ian’s WR22)
• George Pickens (WR41)
• Allen Robinson (WR96)
• Calvin Austin (WR109)

The Steelers' target distribution in Pickett’s 11 or so games under center last season was as follows:

• Diontae Johnson: 92
• Pat Freiermuth: 67
• George Pickens: 58
• Najee Harris: 38
• Chase Claypool: 27
• Zach Gentry: 19
• Jaylen Warren: 18
• Steven Sims: 17
• Connor Heyward: 10

Johnson had more targets than Pickens in all but two games last season, but credit to the rookie for making more than a few highlight-reel catches. Seriously, Pickens probably went undefeated when playing “500” as a kid.

But style points don’t count for extra in fantasy football, so it’s absolutely incredible to me that Pickens currently has an earlier ADP than Johnson this offseason despite being on the wrong side of volume and production leaderboards alike in 2022.

Speaking of production, you might have heard Johnson didn’t score a single TD in 2022. His 147 scoreless targets are 38 more than the next-closest tally since the metric began being tracked in 1992.

Transitioning from Roethlisberger to Pickett was a major factor. With the rookie Pickett taking over, Johnson was one of just five WRs who scored more than 30 PPR points below expectation in 2022:

1. Johnson (-72.6 PPR points below expectation)
2. Drake London (-35.5)
3. Marvin Jones (-33)
4. Garrett Wilson (-31.6)
5. Chase Claypool (-30.9)

Eight drops (tied for the second most in the NFL) definitely didn’t help Johnson either, but it’s not like anyone is complaining about Stefon Diggs (9) leading the league in drops last year. Johnson’s mediocre 2.8 yards after the catch per reception also put him in not-great company alongside veteran WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans.

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson (18) makes a reception as Miami Dolphins cornerback Noah Igbinoghene (9) looks on in the second half during the game between the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers and host Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, October 23, 2022, in Miami Gardens, FL. Final score, Dolphins 16, Steelers, 10. Week 7 Dolphins Vs Pittsburgh Steelers Al 1028 Photo Credit: ANDRES LEIVA/THE PALM BEACH POST / USA TODAY NETWORK

Johnson made my “All-Sheesh Team” for all of his near misses, as there were more than a few instances of the veteran WR coming oh so close to coming down with a spectacular catch. Attempting to discern whether Johnson’s 2022 season was terribly unlucky or just plain terrible is one of the bigger fantasy questions heading into 2023. 

Ultimately, Johnson joins Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams as the only five WRs who've logged over 450 targets over the past three seasons. While Johnson wasn’t as successful with Pickett under center, the 2022 campaign did prove that the 26-year-old talent is still the No. 1 WR in Pittsburgh.

Johnson posted WR22 and WR8 finishes in PPR PPG in 2020 and 2021, respectively, before a disappointing finish as the WR41 last season. Now that Johnson is appropriately priced far closer to his floor than his ceiling, I’m happy to scoop up all the Johnson shares I can get heading into 2023 as long as his ADP remains in borderline WR3 territory.

Outside of Johnson and Pickens, there's not much to discuss. Last-round darts on the veteran Robinson or the speedster Austin aren’t completely out of the question if drafters are looking to stack with Pickett, especially in best ball tournaments, but don't expect too much production from either on a Steelers offense that ranked dead last in passing TDs in 2022.

TEs

• Pat Freiermuth (Ian’s TE10)
• Darnell Washington (TE36)

Freiermuth only found the end zone twice in 2022, and neither one of his two TDs were thrown by Pickett. Still, Freiermuth had the good fortune of being the No. 2 pass-game option in Pittsburgh, which is fairly rare at the TE position, especially considering that Freiermuth only played more than 75% of the offense’s snaps on five occasions all of last year.

Hell, Freiermuth had more targets than Pickens in 11 of 15 games together last season. Madness.

Freiermuth may not see more snaps in 2023, especially after the team used a third-round pick on Washington, the freaky athletic Georgia Bulldog. However, Freiermuth could theoretically score more TDs this coming season if Pickett can grow even a little bit as a passer in his second NFL season.

Although Freiermuth was inconsistent from week to week last year, even without many TDs, he still managed to have some spike weeks. Here are his receiving lines last year with Pickett under center for the majority of the game:

• Week 4: 7-85-0 (TE7 in PPR)
• Week 5: 2-12-0 (TE32)
• Week 7: 8-75-0 (TE4)
• Week 8: 4-57-0 (TE12)
• Week 10: 4-36-0 (TE16)
• Week 11: 8-79-0 (TE4)
• Week 12: 3-39-0 (TE18)
• Week 13: 3-76-0 (TE9)
• Week 16: 7-66-0 (TE8)
• Week 17: 3-36-0 (TE29)
• Week 18: 0-0-0 (TE57)

Cincinnati Bengals safety Jessie Bates III (30) breaks up a pass intended for Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth (88) in the second quarter of the NFL Week 11 game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh on Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022. The Steelers led 20-17 at halftime. Cincinnati Bengals At Pittsburgh Steelers Week 11 Photo Credit: Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

With top-seven marks in PFF receiving grade (78.3) and yards per route run (1.68), Freiermuth fits the mold of an ascending young talent on a passing offense without too much room to go but up.

And if Pickett can emerge as even an average passer, Freiermuth could flirt with ascending into the second tier of TEs in a hurry. But for now, treat Freiermuth as a borderline TE1 option who's currently priced reasonably at pick No. 109.7 overall on Underdog.

2023 Win Total: 8.5

• -135 juice on the over

Death, taxes, and Mike Tomlin leading the Steelers to at least a .500 record.

Even though Pittsburgh hasn't had a playoff victory since 2016, they've finished above .500 for an astounding 16 straight seasons! The problem with expecting this to continue comes down to the reality that 2023 will likely be just the second time that Pittsburgh boasts objectively the worst QB in the division during the Tomlin era.

Credit to Pickett and company for finding a way to get the job done on nine occasions last year, but the 2022 Steelers had the expected record of a 7.3-9.7 squad in terms of point differential, so they definitely overachieved.

I’m scared to bet too heavily against Tomlin, but give me under 8.5 wins for a Steelers team whose offense never once looked potent last season and did very little to upgrade that side of the ball this offseason outside of trading for Robinson.

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