Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone: It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Seattle Seahawks, looking at key questions like:
- Was 2022 a fluke or a sign of even bigger things to come for Geno Smith?
- Who will lead this backfield between Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet?
- Is there enough volume in this passing game for each of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to provide consistent fantasy excellence?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the Seahawks will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable offseason moves
From the front office, to the coaching staff, to the roster: Every 2023 NFL team will be different than its 2022 version.
Pete Carroll is back for his 14th season leading the Seahawks. He’ll once again be flanked by offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt.
Waldron has been steering the ship over the past two seasons, and ironically really started to feature the passing game in 2022 despite the calls to let Russ cook the previous season.
- 2022: +1.5% pass rate over expected (No. 8)
- 2021: -2% (No. 18)
Seattle has ranked a respectable 13th and 8th in neutral situation pace over the past two seasons. There should (again) be enough volume through the air to enable multiple fantasy-friendly assets in the passing game.
Additionally, the Seahawks have made plenty of changes to their roster. The following QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs have either joined or left Seattle in some way, shape, or form this offseason:
- QB: None
- RB: Former first-round pick Rashaad Penny took his talents to Philadelphia. Backup RBs Travis Homer (Bears) and Tony Jones (Broncos) also found new homes in free agency.
- WR: Backup options Marquise Goodwin (Browns), Laquon Treadwell (Ravens), and Penny Hart (Falcons) all went elsewhere as free agents.
- TE: None
Seattle did the majority of their replacing through the draft, devoting top-tier capital to both Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1.20) and UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet (2.52). Both figure to immediately compete for large roles as rookies. The same can’t be said for day three Georgia RB Kenny McIntosh (7.237) if the history of draft capital means anything.
QB: Geno Smith (Ian’s QB14), Drew Lock (QB48)
Geno took home Comeback Player of the Year honors during his breakout 2022 campaign. The veteran hadn’t thrown 100 passes in a season since 2014 before last year, but that didn’t stop Smith from making all kinds of incredible throws throughout the year.
Seriously: This mixtape is HOT.
Nothing about Smith’s performance would make you think he simply dinked and dunked his way to success. While he did lead the NFL in raw completion rate (69.8%), Smith’s 8.3 average target depth ranked a respectable 25th out of 48 qualified QBs.
Nobody posted a higher PFF passing grade (99.2) or threw more TDs (15) on passes thrown 20-plus yards down the field last season.
As the NFL’s best QB in completion rate over expected (+5.6%), Smith objectively balled out in 2022…over the course of the entire season.
One of the main talking points on Smith’s bear case for 2023 comes down to the reality that he struggled a bit down the stretch, posting relatively mundane QB16, QB18, QB12, and QB13 fantasy finishes during the final four weeks of the season after scoring more fantasy points than anyone other than Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Justin Fields in Weeks 1 to 14.
Still, those performances came against the 49ers, Chiefs (in Arrowhead), Jets, and Rams—groups capable of providing plenty of resistance against even some of the league’s very best passing attacks.
Ultimately, it’s a lot easier to believe that 2022 was more of a sign of things to come than a fluke when you consider the Seahawks have surrounded Smith with one of the league’s very best groups of pass-catchers.
This WR trio should be inside anybody’s top-five, while there are also playmakers at RB and TE—Smith doesn’t need to be a hero in order for the league’s reigning ninth-ranked scoring offense to boom once again.
Priced as the QB15 (pick 114) in best ball land, Smith shapes up as a prime later-round option at the position and arbitrage selection against guys like Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence, who are going a full four-plus rounds earlier.
RB: Kenneth Walker (Ian’s RB18), Zach Charbonnet (RB35)
There was a lot to like from Walker’s rookie season. The Michigan State product quickly proved fully capable of taking the rock to the house at a moment’s notice, utilizing a blend of long speed and tackle-breaking ability that few RBs possess.
The rookie’s advanced numbers stacked up with the league’s top backs…for the most part.
- PFF Rushing Grade: 83.5 (No. 11 among 42 qualified RBs)
- PFF Receiving Grade: 56.0 (No. 35)
- PFF Pass-blocking Grade: 32.0 (No. 43)
- Yards per carry: 4.6 (No. 15)
- Yards after contact per carry: 3.16 (No. 13)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.21 (No. 14)
- Explosive run play rate: 0.127 (No. 9)
- Success rate: 42% (No. 41)
The receiving metrics and last variable are the key problem here: These numbers suggest Walker was a boom-or-bust early-down rusher with a tendency to favor the chance for a chunk gain despite heightened risk to take a loss.
And yet, peeping the film a bit closer adds some doubt to just how much of the fault should be directed at Walker on some of his least-productive runs. The man didn’t rack up 1,215 total yards and 9 TDs in 15 games by accident.
I’m not against Walker at his RB15 ADP (pick 52), although I’ve leaned toward Joe Mixon in this range if not taking a WR. Still, Mixon continues to climb up and figures to eventually surpass Walker, leaving him as a more than viable option in the fifth and (sometimes with a drop) sixth rounds.
Of course, the only reason why Walker isn’t locked in as a top-six option at the position like he was earlier in the offseason is because the Seahawks decided to use a second-round pick on UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet. The Athletic’s Dan Brugler wrote the following about Charbonnet in his ever-excellent “The Beast”:
“A two-year starter at UCLA, Charbonnet was an ideal fit for head coach Chip Kelly’s diverse run offense (pins, pulls, counters, etc.) and was mentored by Bruins running back coach DeShaun Foster (former second-round pick out of UCLA who spent seven seasons in the NFL). The Michigan transfer was consistently productive in his two seasons with the Bruins, leading the FBS in all-purpose yards per game (168.0) and the Pac-12 in rushing (1,359) in 2022. Charbonnet reads the field and his blockers exceptionally well and consistently picks up positive yardage with his ability to absorb contact. He is an average burst runner and can be tracked down from behind, but while he won’t hit many home runs, he will pile up the doubles (22.6 percent of his carries resulted in a 10-plus-yard gain in 2022). Overall, Charbonnet is not a dynamic start-stop athlete to quickly change rush lanes or escape trouble, but he has extraordinary vision with reliable pass-catching and blocking skills and impeccable football character. He projects as a low-end NFL starter.”
It wouldn’t be surprising if Charbonnet immediately battles for Travis Homer’s leftover pass-down work. Beat writer Gregg Bell has already said to not “be surprised at the playing time and opportunities” that he’ll get in year one.
Charbonnet might not unseat Walker as the lead early-down back, but pass-game opportunities could be plentiful—and there’s serious upside here should the latter back be forced to miss any time in 2023.
This “FLEX with benefits” combination makes the rookie a quality mid-to-late round selection going alongside similar archetypes like A.J. Dillon and Samaje Perine.
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WR: DK Metcalf (Ian’s WR17), Tyler Lockett (WR33), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR37)
Metcalf (141 targets) led the way over Lockett (117) last season, but the former did play one more game than the latter. Credit to Lockett for winning out in PPR points per game (15.1, WR14) compared to Metcalf (13.6, WR23).
It’s unclear what the eight-year veteran has to do at this point to earn some respect in fantasy land. Lockett has smashed his ADP on an annual basis ever since landing a full-time starting job in 2018:
Turning 31 in September isn’t ideal, although the iron man has missed just three (!) total games since entering the league in 2015. Lockett (rather hilariously) seldom exposes himself to big hits.
The volume and age advantages are enough to give Metcalf the nod, but their average draft position is (again) far too wide. Drafters should feel free to prioritize lower-ranked WRs over Lockett due to the ADP gap; just realize Geno’s top two receivers will be neck-and-neck in the rankings come Week 1.
Of course, the reason why neither WR is even higher in the rankings comes down to the Seahawks’ decision to spend day one capital on JSN, who received the following breakdown from Mr. Brugler.
“A two-year starter at Ohio State, Smith-Njigba was the slot receiver in head coach Ryan Day’s multiple spread offense and made a living inside (88.3 percent of his snaps the last two seasons came in the slot). Although 2022 was basically a lost year for him because of his hamstring injury, he had a prolific 2021 season with the Big Ten single-season record for receiving yards (1,606) and a memorable Rose Bowl performance with an NCAA bowl-record 347 receiving yards. Although he played in a favorable offensive situation in Columbus, including alongside first-round receivers Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, Smith-Njigba is a crisp, controlled route runner with the hand strength to focus and snatch the football. Although he doesn’t have the speed to run away from coverage, he skillfully throttles his speeds and uses different sink/body techniques to leverage defensive backs out of position and create pockets of separation. Overall, Smith-Njigba isn’t an elite size/speed athlete and won’t be an ideal fit for every role, but he is a crafty route runner with smooth short-area quickness and tracking talent to be a sure-handed target. He projects as an early NFL starter who is at his best in the slot.”
There are a lot of similarities between JSN’s short-area quickness and long-time slot maven Julian Edelman. His collegiate highlights feature some nasty after the catch ability in addition to putting up bonkers numbers in an offense with plenty of target competition.
The No. 1 WR (rather easily) in Dwain McFarland’s Rookie WR Supermodel, there’s little doubt the Seahawks’ new starting slot WR has a high ceiling at the professional level.
Of course, it’s not a given JSN cashes in on his sky-high upside immediately. Just 12 rookie WRs have posted top-24 fantasy numbers (PPR points per game) over the past 10 years; Smith-Njgba’s college teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave even failed to get there despite otherwise successful year-one campaigns.
The bigger issues are the 1.) Potential for the Seahawks to feature 11 personnel (three-WR sets) as their primary offense, and 2.) Rarity of passing games enabling three top-36 fantasy WRs.
It’d make sense if the former issue is resolved to some extent after the decision to spend such a high draft pick on JSN in the first place, although their standing as the 25th ranked offense in utilizing three WRs on the field at the same time isn’t ideal.
Overall, just seven offenses have enabled three top-36 fantasy football WRs (PPR points per game) in the same season over the past 10 years:
- 2021 Bengals
- 2020 Panthers
- 2020 Steelers
- 2018 Rams
- 2018 Bucs
- 2016 Saints
- 2013 Broncos
The latter squad was the only group that managed to enable all three involved parties to top-24 heights in fantasy land.
While JSN isn’t being priced as a top-24 option, even his mid-tier WR3 treatment is bordering on aggressive if you assume Metcalf and Lockett will continue to work as the offense’s top-two pass-game options. I haven’t made a habit of prioritizing him in this range of drafts, but that doesn’t mean his future doesn’t remain incredibly bright.
TE: Noah Fant (Ian’s TE24), Will Dissly (TE57)
Fant quietly enjoyed a solid first year in Seattle, catching 50 of 63 targets for 486 yards and four scores. Still, consistent opportunities were tough to come by, ultimately leading to Fant clearing the 50-yard mark in just one of his 18 games on the season.
Dissly (35-349-3 on 38 targets) certainly wasn’t prioritized ahead of Fant in the overall pecking order, but the soon-to-be 27-year-old veteran certainly maintained enough involvement to make a true ceiling scenario tough to come by for the ex-Broncos talent.
The real concern is that Fant's playing time and usage didn't exactly boom even when Dissly missed three games at the end of last season:
- Week 17: 2-40-0 (3 targets), 63% snaps
- Week 18: 4-20-0 (4), 64%
- Wild Card: 1-11-0 (2), 56%
Backup TE Colby Parkinson ripped off 81%, 79%, and 66% snap rates with a total of 16 targets in this span and was unironically the team’s leader at the position.
I’ve been fine with throwing some last-round darts at Fant in best-ball lineups that need an extra player and/or stacking partner at the position. Otherwise, the likelihood that this offense again rotates bodies at the position pretty much no matter what renders all parties involved as non-viable fantasy factors.
2023 win total: 8.5 (-142 on the over)
Carroll has won at least nine games in all but one of his last 11 seasons leading the Seahawks. The lone 7-10 campaign in 2021 was undoubtedly impacted by Russell Wilson missing three starts.
The league’s reigning 25th-ranked scoring defense certainly has some work to do, but the offense is even more loaded on paper compared to last year’s ninth-ranked scoring unit. The former side of the ball also figures to at least be in a bit better spot after adding DL Dre’Mont Jones, S Julian Love, and even old friend LB Bobby Wagner to the squad.
Ultimately, this division has at least one free space with the Cardinals and potentially two if the Rams don’t manage to rebound; I’m taking over 8.5 wins for a team that looks pretty, pretty, pretty good as long as the league’s reigning comeback player of the year proves that last year wasn’t a fluke.
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