Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone. It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Tennessee Titans, looking at key questions like:
- Is Ryan Tannehill the most disrespected QB in all of fantasy football?
- Will Derrick Henry continue kindly telling the age cliff gods to f*ck off?
- How high is Treylon Burks's fantasy ceiling in this run-first Tennessee offense?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the Titans will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable Offseason Moves
From the front office to the coaching staff to the roster, every NFL team will be different in 2023 compared to their respective 2022 version.
Mike Vrabel is back for his sixth year leading the Titans, and while defensive coordinator Shane Bowen also returns, offensive coordinator Todd Downing left and is now with the Jets. Don’t expect too much of an offensive philosophy change under new offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, though, as was the Titans’ passing game coordinator last year.
This Tennessee offense has been happy to run the damn ball to their heart’s desire under Vrabel regardless of who has been calling plays:
- 2022: -10.6% pass rate over expected (No. 30)
- 2021: -8.2% (No. 32)
- 2020: -9.4% (No. 30)
- 2019: -6% (No. 30)
- 2018: -7.6% (No. 31)
- 2017: -4.2% (No. 24)
On top of a low PROE, the Titans' offense was the slowest-moving in terms of neutral situation pace in 2022, so it’s been rare to see this group enable more than one consistent high-end fantasy performer in the passing game despite Tannehill having ranked among the league’s most-efficient QBs since joining Tennessee.
Kelly did post ninth, sixth, and 23rd place finishes in PROE as the Texans' offensive coordinator from 2019 to 2021, but a quick look at the Titans’ offseason moves (or lack thereof) to upgrade their receiving weapons indicates that we should once again not expect much fantasy upside out of any Titan not named Derrick Henry.
The Titans have made plenty of changes to their roster this offseason. The following QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs have either joined or left Tennessee in some way, shape, or form since free agency started in March:
- QB: Backup Joshua Dobbs signed with the Browns to compete for a backup spot.
- RB: Pass-down RB Dontrell Hilliard remains a free agent after having missed the end of last season with a neck injury.
- WR: Robert Woods (Texans), Chris Conley (49ers), Cody Hollister (unrestricted free agent), and C.J. Board (unrestricted free agent) are all out of the picture heading into 2023. The Titans didn't do much to replace them, only having signed Chris Moore to a small one-year, $1.3 million deal as depth.
- TE: Austin Hooper joined the Raiders in free agency while blocking TE Geoff Swaim remains an unrestricted free agent. The Titans signed former Bears backup Trevon Wesco to help provide depth at the TE position.
The Titans added a pair of fantasy-relevant talents to the roster on Day 2 of the NFL Draft in Kentucky QB Will Levis (2.33) and Tulane RB Tyjae Spears (3.81). Both could find themselves on the field sooner rather than later if the Titans find themselves out of playoff contention by midway through the coming 2023 season.
Tennessee also drafted Cincinnati TE Josh Whyte (5.147) and Tennessee-Martin WR Colton Dowell (7.228), but the history of draft capital tells us not to expect too much from Day 3 selections in fantasy land.
QBs
- Ryan Tannehill (Ian’s QB30)
- Will Levis (QB40)
Yes, Tannehill operates in a run-first offense that doesn’t consistently ask him to put the team on his back. And yes, Tannehill has been nothing short of awesome on a per-dropback basis since he joined Tennessee in 2019. Here are his stats over the last four seasons:
- EPA per dropback: +0.12 (No. 9 among 39 qualifying QBs)
- Passer rating: 100.5 (No. 6)
- Yards per attempt: 7.9 (No. 4)
- Adjusted yards per attempt: 8.09 (No. 6)
- Completion rate: 66.9% (No. 10)
- TD/INT ratio: 2.7 (No. 10)
One of my favorite stats that is somehow true is that Tannehill has more rushing TDs (20) than Lamar Jackson (19) over the past four years, which seems like complete madness.
That said, Tannehill's passing efficiency and rushing production haven't quite been enough to push Tannehill into the top-10 fantasy QBs in recent seasons, but he did provide a couple seasons of solid back-end QB1 production his first two years in Tennessee. Here are Tannehill's fantasy points per game (PPG) since 2019:
- 2022: 13.4 (QB22)
- 2021: 15.8 (QB14)
- 2020: 21.5 (QB9)
- 2019: 18.7 (QB9)
Tannehill will turn 35 years old in July, so his best days are likely in the rearview mirror even though QBs have historically managed to stave off father time longer than any other position in fantasy land.
The bigger question these days is whether or not Tannehill will in fact be the Titans’ starter by the end of the 2023 season. Kentucky QB Will Levis’s status as the 33rd overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft bodes well for his chances of getting a shot at the starting job eventually, although head coach Mike Vrabel did clarify that Tannehill was the starting QB following the draft.
Expect Tannehill to keep the starting job early in the season, but it’d make sense if Levis gets a chance sooner rather than later if the wheels fall off for Tennessee in 2023.
There’s a possibility that Levis could be a fairly strong fantasy QB even if he never puts things together in real life. His rushing numbers in 2019 (51-213-3), 2020 (82-260-3), and 2021 (107-376-9) paint the picture of a legit threat on the ground.
While Levis’ underwhelming final season last year with negative 107 rushing yards looks ugly at first, it's explained in large part due to loss of yardage from taking a whopping 37 sacks as well as having played through multiple injuries. Overall, Levis flashed some serious ability as a runner in the open field in college.
This run-first Titans offense doesn’t figure to lend itself too much upside in the passing game, so any successful fantasy QB will need to be able to provide a rushing floor, which is something both Tannehill and Levis have in their arsenal.
Ultimately, both Tennessee QBs figure to struggle to provide elite passing efficiency on a bottom-five offense in terms of pass-catching talent. The potential rushing upside is a nice feather in the cap, but it’s not like we’re looking at a potential Justin Fields-level threat on the ground whoever starts for the Titans (just look at how Malik Willis’s three starts went last year).
Both Tannehill and Levis are dirt cheap and available at the end of drafts, but I’ve only found myself going for one of them (usually Tannehill) if I've already taken Burks or Chigoziem Okonkwo earlier in that draft. Even then, I only take a Titans QB for roster builds that are very weak at QB.
Don’t go out of your way to land either Tannehill or Levis on a potentially terrible offense. QBs historically have put up worse fantasy numbers than any other position on bottom-10 scoring offenses.
RBs
- Derrick Henry (Ian’s RB9)
- Tyjae Spears (RB51)
- Hassan Haskins (RB84)
Henry has reached the point in his career where it’s terribly rare to see RBs put up big-time fantasy numbers. Credit to The Big Dog for posting a top-two mark in rushing yards per game for the fourth-consecutive season in 2022, but it was also the second consecutive season that Henry averaged less than 4.5 yards per carry after having averaged 5.0 yards per carry over the first five years of his career.
Such is life. It would've been hard for any RB to have done better behind the worst offensive line in the league last year per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Surprisingly, Henry’s 2022 fantasy success was in large part due to having smashed previous career-high marks in receptions (33 vs. 19) and receiving yards (398 vs. 206).
It’s been quite some time since The Big Dog has failed to finish as a fantasy RB1 in PPR points per game (PPG):
- 2022: 18.9 (RB4)
- 2021: 24.2 (RB1)
- 2020: 20.8 (RB3)
- 2019: 19.6 (RB4)
- 2018: 12.6 (RB21)
The problem with being overly optimistic about Henry once again telling regression nerds to f*ck off comes down to whether or not he’ll continue to see the sort of pass-down work he did last season to help make up for reduced scoring and efficiency on the ground.
Last season’s career-best receiving production kept Henry a strong fantasy RB1, but he graded out as PFF’s second-worst receiving RB. Part of Henry's 2022 target volume might also be attributed to Dontrell Hilliard being banged up for a lot of the season.
Sep 30, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Tulane Green Wave running back Tyjae Spears (22) runs the ball during the second quarter under pressure from Houston Cougars defensive back Jayce Rogers (6) at TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports
New No. 2 RB Tyjae Spears profiles as exactly the sort of pass-down threat who could turn Henry back into more of a one-dimensional early-down grinder. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had this to say about Spears in his excellent annual draft guide, “The Beast”:
“A three-year starter at Tulane, Spears was consistently productive in offensive coordinator Jim Svoboda’s RPO-based multiple offense. After a torn ACL in 2020 and shared workload in 2021, he had an extremely productive 2022 campaign, finishing No. 5 in the country in rushing yards (1,581) and rushing yards per carry (6.90).
Spears is a slippery runner with his dynamic start/stop cutting skills, patient vision and darting acceleration, which are highlighted on counter and outside zone plays. He has the functional skills to provide value in the passing game, but he can be more dependable as a blocker and pass catcher.
Overall, Spears doesn’t have desired build or run strength, but his explosive read-plant-burst action allows him to abruptly change his rush path and elude tacklers. He shows the potential for three-down duties, although he will be at his best as part of a committee, similar to the Buffalo Bills’ James Cook.”
I’m not down with drafting Henry as the top-five RB that he has been over the past half decade, but that's okay because you don’t have to draft him that high!
The RB8 over at Underdog Fantasy, Henry is commonly available in the early third round alongside RBs like Tony Pollard and Josh Jacobs. Don’t hate the player, hate the ADP, and there’s very little to complain about Henry's third-round ADP relative to his potential ceiling.
Additionally, the Titans-Texans matchup is the only one that occurs twice during the fantasy playoffs from Weeks 15 to 17, and it’s fair to say Henry has owned the Titans’ AFC South “rival” over the years:
- Week 17, 2019: 32-211-3
- Week 6, 2020: 22-212-2
- Week 17, 2020: 34-250-2
- Week 8, 2022: 32-219-2
- Week 16, 2022: 23-126-1
Spears is also a worthwhile investment late in drafts, especially due to the potential that Henry is rested down the stretch if the Titans are knocked out of contention.
Benefiting from two cake matchups in the most important three weeks of the fantasy season could give Spears an enormous ceiling relative to his incredibly affordable ADP of RB57 and pick No. 184.7 overall. The rookie is also plenty capable of providing value from a pure pass-down role, and maybe even more!
You can grab a few shares of Spears in the late rounds on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below!
WRs
- Treylon Burks (Ian’s WR35)
- Kyle Phillips (WR116)
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR126)
Burks’s rookie season never quite got grooving. Turf toe and a concussion limited the 2022 NFL Draft’s 18th overall pick to just 11 total games, and Tannehill wasn’t active for the last three of those contests.
The allure of Burks is simple: he flashed down the stretch and remains the clear-cut No. 1 WR with arguably less target competition than any other WR in the league. Plus, what Burks displayed as a rookie by burning Jaire Alexander and showing off some serious acrobatic skills downfield shouldn’t be taken for granted.
It’s rare to find a first-round WR with sky-high target share potential available this late in drafts, although Burks had a similar lack of target competition last season and failed to capitalize on it. Here's how Burks graded out as a rookie:
- PFF receiving grade: 73.9 (No. 32 among 80 qualifying WRs)
- Yards per route run: 1.75 (No. 33)
- Yards per reception: 13.5 (No. 24)
- Targets per route run: 0.209 (No. 30)
Dealing with piss-poor QB play when Tannehill was sidelined didn’t help, nor did Burks’s aforementioned injury woes.
Of course, the fact that DeAndre Hopkins recently visited the Titans demonstrates that the team might not be fully content with their current WR room. If Tennessee were to sign Hopkins, it would certainly not be good for Burks's fantasy projections, which are already capped by a lack of target volume in the Titans' run-first offense.
Ultimately, I’m in on Burks as a borderline WR3 thanks to the fact that he’s going alongside fellow unproven upside bets like Kadarius Toney and George Pickens. This tier of WRs is one of the last areas of drafts where you can feel any sort of confidence about the WRs being drafted having high upside.
As for the rest of the WRs, this Titans offense didn’t produce a single fantasy-relevant WR in 2022, and it may not again in 2023. Credit to Westbrook-Ikhine for putting up a top-five fantasy WR finish in Week 10 and Robert Woods for posting a WR19 finish in Week 17, but those were literally the only two top-24 WR finishes by a Tennessee WR not named Burks last season.
I’ve been happy to mix in Burks when guys like Diontae Johnson and Marquise Brown are already off the board, but otherwise, I'm not going out of my way to get a piece of Burks in fantasy land. This is not an offense to prioritize when it comes to drafting fantasy WRs for this coming year.
TEs
- Chigoziem Okonkwo (Ian’s TE13)
- Trevon Wesco (TE75)
The Titans were getting Chiggy with it in 2022 (I’m sorry).
Seriously though, the fourth-round rookie TE was arguably the team’s most consistent pass-catcher last season. While Okonkwo played more than half of the offense’s snaps in just two games all of last year, he was one of the league’s most-efficient TEs in just about any receiving metric:
- PFF receiving grade: 84.6 (No. 2 among 47 qualifying TEs)
- Yards per route run: 2.61 (No. 1)
- Yards per reception: 14.0 (No. 1)
- Yards after the catch per reception: 7.8 (tied for No. 2)
- Targets per route run: 26.2% (No. 2)
- Passer rating when targeted: 125.1 (No. 7)
Draft capital aside, Okonkwo profiles as a poor man’s Kyle Pitts, as Okonkwo is likewise essentially a WR with a TE designation on a run-first offense.
The Titans consistently went out of their way to design both screens and shot plays for Okonkwo last season, and he made a habit of picking up more yards than what was there. Hell, the man even had a package of plays where he lined up at RB.
I truly believe Okonkwo’s high-end efficiency is backed up by far more film evidence than what Albert Okwuegbunam-truthers were working with this time last year.
The departure of Hooper could lead to more of a full-time role for Chiggy in 2023, but even if not, Okonkwo is still a reasonable dart throw with middling TE2 ADP as the likely No. 2 pass-game option in this offense.
One of only a handful of TEs with a feasible chance to lead their team in targets, Okonkwo warrants borderline TE1 consideration even if you’re more comfortable deploying a “first or last” mindset at the position. The overall lack of projected pass-game volume is a bigger issue than talent for Okonkwo, but don’t be surprised if the rising second-year TE manages to boom in a major way on at least a few occasions in 2023.
2023 Win Total: 7.5
- -105 on the over
The Titans have gone 9-7, 9-7, 11-5, 12-5, and most recently 7-10 under Mike Vrabel. Last year’s 0-7 finish coincided with Tannehill missing the final three games of the season, although this was also a rather average defense throughout the season, especially against the pass.
There’s certainly a Steelers-esque vibe to these Titans teams. They play good, sound, hard-nosed football under Vrabel and regularly seem to outperform expectations. Still, it’s not a guarantee that the worst offensive line in the league last year will improve much in 2023, which leaves much to be desired when it comes to the Titans' scoring upside this coming year.
That said, give me over 7.5 wins based mostly on the fact that Tennessee will get four divisional games against rookie QBs to go along with best-case out-of-conference divisional matchups against the NFC South.
Also, a reminder that the Titans held a 16-13 lead over the Jaguars at Jacksonville with less than three minutes remaining in a must-win Week 18 contest for the AFC South…with backup Joshua Dobbs under center. This is a well-coached team that can scrape out tough, ugly wins at times.
Don’t take out a second mortgage to bet the over, but I’ll bet on the Titans again in 2023. They've been perennial contenders over the last few seasons, and I think eight wins is still a more than manageable feat for Tennessee in what looks like a bottom-two division in all of football.
You can tail the over on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can also get up to $1,000 DK Dollars when you create a new account. Sign up below and start betting today!
