During the season, I write a weekly Regression Session column that focuses on players who are producing fantasy points above or below what we can reasonably expect based on their workload and historical efficiency. While that can be helpful for staying ahead of the curve and to avoid overreacting to players who are running hot or cold, regression is an even more powerful concept over longer time frames like a full season. It's harder for players to sustain outlier efficiency for a full season, and even more difficult to do it over multiple seasons.

That being said, this article isn't going to just be a list of the most and least efficient players from last season. If it was, the Miami Dolphins would dominate the negative regression section, but you won't find any of De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, or Tyreek Hill in this article. So how come?

Technically all three of them are negative regression candidates because the smart money would bet on Achane's YPC falling, Mostert failing to match his TD total from last season, and Tyreek Hill not setting another career high in YPRR. However, they are all in essentially the same situation as last season in one of the NFL's most efficient offenses with about the same level of competition for touches. They may not quite match 2023's efficiency, but they should all remain among the most productive players at their position on a per-touch or per-game basis.

When searching for positive and negative regression candidates, I am looking for players who should see a more dramatic swing in their production. With that in mind, let's dive into those top regression candidates for 2024. 

Positive Regression

Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson's 2023 season was remarkable for all the wrong reasons. He was excellent while playing in a dysfunctional offense with some of the worst QB play imaginable. During the regular season, he ranked fourth among all WRs in targets with 163, but barely cracked 1,000 receiving yards and had just three receiving TDs. One of these TDs was an absolute gem in Week 1 to help the Jets pull out a miraculous win after Aaron Rodgers went down.

Wilson is undeniably one of the best young receivers in the game and will be the top target for the Jets again in 2024. He ranked fifth among all WRs in ESPN's Open Score and earned double digit targets in eight of his 17 games last year. The biggest difference is that he should have a massive upgrade in QB play if Aaron Rodgers can stay on the field. 

When comparing Wilson to the other elite target earners, it becomes even more apparent just how much he was held back by poor QB play. There were nine WRs who saw 150+ targets last season (reminder: Wilson was at 163) and here is where he ranked in the following categories among those wideouts:

  • Receptions - Ninth (95), next lowest 103
  • Yards - Ninth (1,042), next lowest 1,144
  • Receiving TDs - Ninth (3), next lowest 4
  • YPRR - Ninth (1.55), next lowest 1.97 

To put some additional numbers behind the jump we should see in Wilson's production, the PFF Expected Points model projected Wilson to record 1,375 receiving yards and 6 receiving TDs based on his workload in 2023. If he had hit those marks, it would have added a whopping 3.5 half PPR points per game to his fantasy output. That is before accounting for the potentially huge jump in overall offensive efficiency and scoring opportunities. 

If Rodgers and Wilson both stay healthy for most of the season, Wilson should easily top six receiving TDs in 2024. This potential to smash his receiving totals from last season on similar volume makes him one of the clearest positive regression candidates in the league.

Davante Adams

Another supremely talented WR who was held back by poor QB play, Davante Adams led all WRs in target share (33%) and air yard share (44%) last season. His 171 targets were the second most among WRs, yet he only finished as the WR13 in half PPR scoring with the 15th most receiving yards. 

Unfortunately for Adams, he isn't set for the same level of QB upgrade that Wilson is. The Raiders did bring in Gardner Minshew to compete with Aidan O'Connell for the starting job, and O'Connell could take a step forward in his second season, but it is unclear how much better the QB play will actually be. 

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Dec 31, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (17) catches a ball in the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Adams does also have a bit more target competition this season with rookie TE Brock Bowers figuring to play a prominent role in the passing game, but I expect that to come more at the expense of secondary options like Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, and Michael Mayer. There is a decent chance Adams doesn't lead the league in target share in 2024, but he could see a similar overall number of targets if the Raiders pass more like I expect them to. 

In 2023, the Raiders ranked 23rd in total pass attempts with a -2% PROE. This offseason they let Josh Jacobs walk and made minimal moves to replace him, so I'm expecting the running game to take a step back in 2024. If that's the case, I believe an increase in pass attempts can largely offset a slight decline in target concentration.

Adams has consistently been one of the strongest target earners in the NFL and that should continue in 2024. The key question for his positive regression case is whether his efficiency can rebound towards his career averages. 

In 2023, Adams posted 11.1 yards per reception and 1.97 yards per route run. He has been above 2.3 YPRR every season since 2019 and has averaged 12.4 yards per reception for his career. A bounceback season for his efficiency on a similar level of volume leaves plenty of upside for Adams to outperform his 2023 production and 2024 draft cost. 

Negative Regression

Brian Robinson Jr.

One of the more unexpected fantasy storylines from last season was Brian Robinson's emergence as a productive pass catcher. He jumped up from just 9 catches for 60 yards in his rookie season to posting 36 receptions for 367 yards in 2023. This was quite surprising for an RB who has never really been thought of as a receiving weapon. 

As we dig into the numbers a bit more, this production looks unsustainable for multiple reasons. First, Robinson's output on the 40 targets he saw last year was remarkably efficient. His 10.2 yards per reception was tied for second best among all RBs, and his 1.68 YPRR was fifth best at the position. He finished ahead of elite pass-catching RBs like Christian McCaffrey and James Cook in both categories.

He also had a couple of big plays that juiced his numbers with minimal skill required on his part. Most notably, this 51-yard TD reception where he got to run in a straight line untouched to the end zone. I don't want to discredit him too much, he made the play that was in front of him, but that type of explosive play does not make me think he is suddenly a receiving back.

Additionally, two of the Commanders' key moves on offense this year are both likely to hurt Robinson's ability in the passing game. The team signed one of the most prolific receiving backs of the last half decade in Austin Ekeler and also drafted the most dynamic rushing QB of the 2024 class in Jayden Daniels. Both of these additions reduce Robinson's receiving upside, which could limit him to a two-down rusher who hasn't been efficient through his first two seasons (4.0 YPC).

DJ Moore

The Bears were one of the NFL's worst passing offenses in 2023, but that didn't stop DJ Moore from putting up a big season. He dominated targets (29%) and air yards (42%) for the Chicago passing game and turned that into a productive season of 1,364 receiving yards and 8 TDs. 

Despite the target dominance, that production was actually meaningfully higher than the PFF Expected Points model projected based on how he was used last season. 

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Dec 31, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore (2) makes a catch over Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III (3) during the first half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

He is theoretically still the top option in what should be a better passing offense in 2024, but the competition for targets in this offense is significantly higher than last season. 

Chicago traded for Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze 9th overall to give Caleb Williams a talented trio of WRs. Allen in particular poses a threat to Moore seeing elite target numbers. Last season, no other Bears receiver topped a 12% target share. Keenan Allen earned a 24% target share in 2023 and is around 0.25 targets per route run for his career. Basically, Allen commands volume and always has. 

Add in the rookie WR3 in the rookie WR super model, TE Cole Kmet (19% target share last season), and a talented pass-catching RB in D'Andre Swift and suddenly it becomes difficult to see Moore approaching a 29% target share again. 

I will acknowledge that the way Moore could beat the forces of regression is if Caleb Williams has a C.J. Stroud-esque rookie season. In that case, Moore could put up an outlier TD season to keep him in the elite tier of fantasy WRs. That being said, I view that as a low probability outcome with the much more likely result being a decline in volume and overall production from last season.