The 2024 NFL draft is officially complete. No more mock drafts, no more hypothetical trades. It's all over.
It's now time to turn our attention to the 2024 fantasy football draft season and while actual fantasy draft season may be a couple of months away, rookie draft season is officially here.
To help tie up the remaining loose ends from the NFL draft, the winners and losers from Day 3 (and the draft as a whole) are below, only this time, with more of an emphasis on non-rookies and how they were impacted by the results of the draft.
You can track every pick of the NFL draft with Fantasy Life's 2024 NFL Draft Tracker!
Fantasy Football Winners and Losers from Day 3 of the NFL Draft
Winners
Incumbent Running Backs
There are two current starting running backs who left the draft with far fewer nerves than when they entered - Raiders RB Zamir White and Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle.
Both the Raiders and Cowboys were frequently in discussions about teams with backfield needs to fill that, in all likelihood, were to be filled via the draft.
That did not happen, for either team.
Instead, White heads into the offseason as the current RB1 for the Raiders after putting together an impressive stretch to end the 2023 campaign.
With the now-departed Josh Jacobs sidelined towards the end of last season, White logged at least 70% of the team's snaps in three of his four final games, logging at least 13 fantasy points and finishing as a top-20 PPR back in all four contests while averaging over 20 touches per game.
With the Raiders failing to bring backfield depth during the draft, White maintains solid standing as a volume-based RB2 in 2024.
In Dowdle's case, Tony Pollard's departure led many pre-draft pundits inking Texas RB Jonathon Brooks to Dallas, but that never came to fruition. In fact, the Cowboys walked out of the 2024 draft with no additional backfield help.
While there are (and likely will continue to be) murmurs of Ezekiel Elliott returning to Dallas, Dowdle currently sits atop the Cowboys depth chart as their RB1.
Dowdle isn't anything to write home about, but his 20% TPRR rate from last season outpaced Pollard's (17%) and we saw four separate occasions in 2023 where Dowdle cracked the top 24 at the RB position while playing 36% of the snaps or less.
His ADP is likely to rise with the draft completed and no new running backs to worry about, but the presence of Deuce Vaughn and the likelihood that Dallas still does something to address their need doesn't have me rushing to the window to cash in my Rico Dowdle tickets.
Troy Franklin
While Franklin's projected draft capital took a bit of a nosedive over the weekend, his landing spot has the potential to mitigate those concerns.
As Jonathan Fuller noted in our 2024 NFL Draft Tracker, "One of the usual concerns for rookie WRs is their compatibility with the offense. If they're on the same page as their QB can be a legitimate issue. Luckily, Troy Franklin doesn't have that problem.
Franklin gets to reunite with his college QB, Bo Nix, and continue their low-aDOT, create-after-the-catch ways in Denver. And Franklin's skillset lends itself to an immediate on-field impact.
The Oregon product posted above-average metrics in YPRR (3.32) and YAC per reception (6.6) during his final season with the Ducks. While he primarily played on the outside (80.9% snap rate out wide), his 190-lb frame doesn't lend itself to physical corners at the NFL level. Shifting him to the slot in Year 1 would be ideal for the quick WR and allow him to develop along with his college QB."
Losers
Marvin Mims
When one door opens, another door closes.
While the door may not necessarily be completely closed on Mims yet, it's hard to have any more confidence after the Broncos drafted Troy Franklin on Saturday.
An early-offseason trade of Jerry Jeudy had Mims truthers seeing a bit of light given redundancies in their games, but Franklin comes in with some of the same redundancies – primarily his ability to stretch the field as, what Ian Hartitz called, a “field-stretching Z-receiver, similar to D.J. Chark”.
After only running a route on 40% of dropbacks last season, Mims is likely in store for an increased role, but it doesn't instill much confidence that the Broncos went right back to the well at the position.
A breakout into true fantasy relevance is an uphill battle for Mims, and this only made things a touch more difficult.
James Cook
Why can't we have nice things?
James Cook managed to finish as the RB9 in PPR formats in 2023 despite logging only 14% of the carries inside the five-yard line and 32% of the two-minute snaps. Backups Latavius Murray and Ty Johnson as well as QB Josh Allen did just enough in their respective roles to put a cap on the Cook's true ceiling, but there was hope that would be a bit different in 2024 given the reworkings of Buffalo's offense.
Nobody included the fact that the Bills would draft Ray Davis on Day 3 of the draft. Per Jonathan Fuller, Davis “posted Top 20 numbers in yards after contact per attempt (3.91) and was 27th in total explosive runs" and should be in line for fantasy-relevant touches in 2024.
Well, that's no fun.
Cook should maintain a stranglehold on the RB1 role in Buffalo, but it's becoming clear that this specific RB1 role for Cook may not have the truly elite ceiling fantasy managers had been hoping for if the Bills aren't willing to put him in a position to unlock it.
Fantasy Football Winners and Losers from Rounds 2 and 3 of the NFL Draft
Winners
Keon Coleman
Few, if any, offenses in the NFL have more opportunity available for incoming wideouts than the Bills.
Stefon Diggs' departure to Houston vacated over 160 targets per season (161 per season over the last four years) while the removal of Gabe Davis from this offense opened up another 87 per game (if taking his last two seasons).
Will Keon Coleman step into the lion's share of those targets? Maybe, but it's the fact that the answer isn't a resounding “no” that excites us for fantasy football.
It's unlikely he comes anywhere close to the volume that Diggs saw, but one thing is for certain – he landed in a picture-perfect situation to have an immediate impact.
Dwain McFarland mentioned that he's viewing him as an immediate WR4 with WR2/3 upside based on the landing spot.
This makes Coleman one of the initial rookie risers in the WR class, as he was already grading out better than some drafted ahead of him (Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Legette) in the WR Rookie Super Model and finds himself in a better situation in terms of an immediate role.
Ladd McConkey
I should also list Justin Herbert here. He's spent an entire offseason looking like Will Smith in the Fresh Prince of Bel-Air meme as the last man standing in what we once viewed as an elite fantasy environment.
Now, he finally welcomes a new friend.
While the expected scheme changes with the new coaching regime will certainly have the Chargers' offense looking different in 2024, McConkey steps into an immediate role. As Jonathan Fuller noted in our 2024 NFL Draft Tracker, "McConkey fits well with what the Chargers need, as he provides versatility and the ability to separate in the blink of an eye. He has some Keenan Allen to his game and he will likely be asked to step in and fill that role now that Allen is in Chicago.
Dec 30, 2023; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Georgia Bulldogs wide receiver Ladd McConkey (84) makes a catch and runs for touchdown against the Florida State Seminoles during the first half in the 2023 Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
McConkey played 30% of his college snaps in the slot, showcasing his ability to play inside and outside which should be valuable for his new team considering their overall lack of pass catchers. He will give Herbert a reliable target who can win underneath and over the top. While McConkey won't solve all their problems, this is at least a start for rebuilding the Chargers' WR room.
This is a pretty good landing spot for McConkey as he has a real chance to be Herbert's top target if the Chargers don't make any other major moves at the position."
Losers
Jonathon Brooks
(And as a byproduct of Brooks' landing spot, the Dallas Cowboys).
After almost every mock draft expected Brooks to be a popular target for the Cowboys (which he certainly may have been), it was the Carolina Panthers who gave him the draft-day call.
Quite the disparity in landing spot, huh?
While Brooks should have no problem taking over as the starter despite a late-fall ACL tear last season, it remains to be seen just how valuable that role will even be in Carolina. Only five teams in the NFL finished with a worse run-block win rate than the Panthers last season and based on how reasonably well he played down the stretch, it's no guarantee that Chuba Hubbard doesn't maintain an annoyingly present role in the backfield.
This is all on top of the fact that the Panthers had one of the worst offensive lines in football last season (though they've taken steps to improve it) and rarely operated with a positive game script.
The Panthers have clearly made a push to improve their offense this offseason, adding Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette to the pass-catching room among other moves, so this isn't to say Brooks is dead in the water. That said, it's hard to be anything but a touch less excited about his fantasy football outlook than we were a mere 48 hours ago.
As Jonathan notes in our Draft Tracker, “This landing spot will likely also push Brooks down the board in fantasy drafts and could cause multiple other RBs to go ahead of him depending on their landing spots.”
Adonai Mitchell
Joining a run-first Colts offense that already has an established WR1 in Michael Pittman, a viable WR2 in Josh Downs, and even a usable WR3 in Alec Pierce certainly isn't how fantasy managers hoped Adonai Mitchell's career would start.
Mitchell has the talent to overtake Pierce in the pecking order here, but as Ian Hartitz pointed out on the Round 2 recap podcast, Anthony Richardson is still an incredibly raw quarterback as a player who only played in two full games, one of which he went 11-25 passing while trailing most of the game. So, not only does Mitchell join a crowded WR room in a run-first offense, but inconsistent and potentially unpredictable quarterback play is likely to aid in the capping of his ceiling.
Dwain McFarland also noted on the podcast that Mitchell's closest comps in his WR Super Model were Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Myles Boykin, which could paint a picture of what his role could look like in Year 1.
This is a landing spot that feels much better for the Colts from a real football standpoint upgrading their offense than it does for the hopes of fantasy football managers.
Fantasy Football Winners and Losers from Round 1 of the NFL Draft
Winners
Caleb Williams
You had to see this coming, right? While it may be boring, I almost feel obligated to include Williams (and most of the Bears offense) among the winners, if not as the biggest winner.
After the offseason acquisitions of Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett and D'Andre Swift, the Bears have quickly turned their offensive unit into one that will demand defensive respect.
Per Chris Allen, "Williams’ 76.0% career-adjusted completion percentage (the highest of the top-3 prospects) will keep Allen as a high-end WR. But the former Trojan’s penchant for extending plays also plays into what DJ Moore does best, as Chicago’s new WR1 had the fourth-highest explosive play rate in 2023.
Williams has the skills as a passer and a runner, plus the infrastructure, to meet his QB12 ADP. Now, let’s wait to see how high the hype train takes him in fantasy drafts."
Now…what you may not have seen coming? The Bears added another weapon for Williams less than 90 minutes after drafting him, taking Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick.
While this only adds to Williams' upside in fantasy land, things may not be as rosy for Odunze from a fantasy football standpoint (more on that soon…).
Xavier Worthy
Shocker, being drafted to catch passes from Patrick Mahomes dubs you a winner.
Per Ian Hartitz on Fantasy Life's latest podcast recapping the first round, “the way this offense is designed is perfect for a wide receiver that could struggle with the physicality of corners, because he's not the biggest guy, but they know how to use his speed better than just about any other team with pre-snap motion to put him in a position to succeed.”
Going from a 17-yard aDOT in 2022 to a 10-yard aDOT in 2023, Worthy is a receiver who can operate in both the underneath areas of the field but also as a field-stretcher who ran a 4.21 40-yard-dash at the combine.
With the possibility that Rashee Rice misses upwards of a month-plus to start the season due to a looming suspension, the Bills seemed to hand the Chiefs (and fantasy managers) a massive draft-day W on a silver platter on Thursday night.
Losers
Rome Odunze
From a real football standpoint, this is an extremely exciting pick for Chicago, as they get a player in Odunze as their WR3 when the assumption was that he'd be the runaway WR1 in any other rookie class.
From a fantasy football standpoint, this is challenging.
As Chris Allen noted in Fantasy Life's 2024 NFL Draft Tracker, "Odunze joins a squad already fitted with high-end target earners. DJ Moore (28.5%) and Keenan Allen (24.4%) both ranked in the Top 20 amongst all WRs in total target share. Both receivers play in areas of the field where Odunze excelled. There's no direct area of the field where Odunze could easily carve out a role.
We just saw a high-end prospect in Jaxon Smith-Njigba join a crowded offense with disappointing results. The Bears' offense may be better than the Seahawks in '23. But Odunze has a tough road to break out as a rookie".
Raiders Tight Ends
On a night where Brock Bowers was mocked in a range that could've seen him catch passes from Aaron Rodgers or Anthony Richardson, Bowers gets the privilege of catching them from Aidan O'Connell or Gardner Minshew.
Woof.
Bowers certainly has the talent, but you'd have a hard time finding a player who saw a bigger dip in potential floor-ceiling combo on Thursday night.
This didn't go without collateral damage, either. This pick effectively ends the potential for Michael Mayer to emerge as a viable back-end tight end in fantasy land.
More Fantasy Football Takeaways from the 2024 NFL Draft
- The Falcons' problems ran deeper than Arthur Smith: The Sun was shining much brighter in Atlanta 48 hours ago. Since then, the Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick…in the same offseason that they committed $180 million to Kirk Cousins…who happened to be just as shocked as the rest of us with their draft pick.
- The Cardinals surprise absolutely nobody: This is a good thing. Unless you forecasted a trade at No. 4 with Arizona, the entire world expected Marvin Harrison Jr. to land alongside QB Kyler Murray in the desert. He's already being treated as a WR1 in best ball drafts with a second-round ADP, so he may not be a value, but he's still worth drafting at that price due to the upside he has playing alongside Murray.
- Target competition? No such thing: At least when your name is Malik Nabers. No, joining a New York Giants squad spearheaded by Daniel Jones doesn't necessarily instill a ton of confidence among fantasy managers, but as Dwain McFarland pointed out in the Round 1 recap podcast, Jones has never had a weapon as good as Nabers. There wasn't a single receiver on the Giants last season that recorded 80-plus catches, 1,000-plus yards, or even a multiple-TD receiving game in 2023. All that to say, there certainly are reasons to be optimistic when it comes to opportunity. Nabers checks in as a unique winner from an opportunity standpoint, but fantasy managers should temper expectations given the landing spot.
- Will James Conner maintain his RB1 stranglehold?: Conner is fresh off of a season that saw him top 63% of the team's snaps in eight of his 13 games played, but that number could be dinged a bit with the Cardinals' Day 2 addition of Trey Benson. While Benson isn't likely to be much more than an early-down breather for Conner in Year 1, it may be enough of a thorn in his side to slightly ding Conner in early 2024 rankings, especially with Emari Demercado still in the fold.
- Ja'Lynn Polk walks into opportunity: Polk finds himself as the newest New England Patriots and while he hasn't demonstrated high-end target-earning ability, it's hard to not see a touch of upside given the depth chart in New England. This is a good landing spot from an opportunity standpoint mixed with a mediocre talent profile that sees Polk as a WR5 with potential WR3 upside, but it's hard to find a ceiling for much more given the team situation.
