The 2024 free-agent RB class is one of the deepest in recent years.
Some of them could get the franchise tag (again), but based on what we know today, multiple household names could be on the move. The 2024 class boasts five RBs who have delivered a top-10 fantasy finish in the last two seasons.
- Austin Ekeler: 22.1 points per game, 2nd (2022)
- Derrick Henry: 19.0, 4th (2022)
- Josh Jacobs: 19.4, 3rd (2022)
- Saquon Barkley: 16.1, 9th (2023)
- Tony Pollard: 15.6, 9th (2022)
If you add potential cut candidates Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb, the free-agent pool grows to seven RBs with top-12 finishes in the last two seasons. However, most of these backs experienced a significant decline in production in 2023.
How much does this free-agent crop of RBs have to offer? How should we manage fantasy expectations when some of these names land in potentially fruitful situations?
These are important questions because teams could feel more pressure to add a veteran in free agency due to a relatively weak draft class. Based on recent mock drafts, we don’t have any RBs in the first round and only two in the second round — Trey Benson and Jonathan Brooks.
Methodology and Reasoning
We will use five critical criteria to rank the RBs (in order of importance):
- Rushing pedigree: attempt share in games played (Rush %)
- Receiving pedigree: routes run per dropback in games played (RR/DB)
- Receiving performance: target share in games played and targets per route run (TPRR)
- Age at the beginning of the 2024 season
- Rushing performance peripherals: yards after contact (YCO), explosive runs of 10-plus yards (EXP), missed tackles forced per attempt (MTF) and PFF Run Grade
Rushing and receiving pedigree
Nothing correlates more strongly with yards and TDs (i.e., fantasy points) than attempts and targets, and nothing correlates more strongly with future attempts and routes than past attempts and routes.
Receiving performance
When comparing RBs with similar rushing attempts, routes and targets are by far the biggest differentiators in points per game (PPG), not rushing or receiving efficiency in PPR and half-PPR formats.
How changing teams impacts rushing and receiving
Attempts, routes and targets are also the strongest indicators for RBs changing teams, but it is important to note the signal lessens — especially for routes and targets.
Age
After those three criteria, there is a tier break when we move to age. Ages 21 to 28 are the most productive years for RBs, and they lose access to ceiling outcomes as they age. Since 2011, only one RB aged 29 or older has reached 20 points per game (Fred Jackson).
However, we shouldn’t altogether avoid RBs over the age of 28. The data shows that older backs can remain fantasy viable and compare more favorably to younger backs than some may think.
Even the worst offenses run at least 900 plays per season, so 300 snaps represent playing at least 33% of the plays, while 450 would be ~50%.
While the RBs that manage to hang around can often compete with their younger counterparts from a points perspective, their ability to reach higher snap thresholds (450-plus) decreases at age 29 — which ties to ceiling outcomes.
Rushing performance peripherals (efficiency)
Efficiency is the final factor. While they aren’t as strong as attempts and targets, we shouldn’t ignore these data points because league-winning seasons come from backs that check most of these boxes. However, we shouldn’t overrate them because they aren’t as predictive and even after normalizing for attempt volume, they don’t strongly correlate to fantasy points.
For each category listed above, we will compare the free agent running backs to RB1s (1 to 12), RB2s (13 to 24) and RB3s (24 to 36) based on the last three seasons.
So, let’s follow the data and see what it says about the 2024 RB free agents.
Free Agent RB Rankings
1. Saquon Barkley
It remains to be seen whether the Giants will use the franchise tag again on the No. 2 selection from the 2018 NFL Draft. But it wouldn’t be surprising. Barkley will only be 27 when the 2024 season starts, which is still within the prime range for heavy-workload RBs.
Multiple coaching staffs have now trusted the seventh-year RB with an every-down role. Barkley has eclipsed the RB1 marks for rush share and route participation (RR/DB) in four of five seasons where he played at least eight games.
Barkley’s 74% rush share and 58% route participation marks in 2023 were special. Over the last three seasons, the top-three PPR RBs have averaged 66% and 56% in those categories — numbers Barkley cleared. Additionally, the Giants trusted Barkley in high-leverage situations inside the five-yard line. No other back toted the rock from in close, with Barkley gobbling up 100% of the attempts when active on game day.
The veteran was also a strong target earner with a 19% TPRR. When you have strong TPRR and route participation numbers, a good target share typically follows. That was the case with Barkley, who posted a 16% target share with 4.1 looks per game — both RB1-worthy numbers.
Barkley’s rushing performance peripherals were subpar, outside his 11% explosive rush rate in 2023. The Giants' offensive line didn’t offer much help, grading out as PFF’s third-worst run-blocking unit with a 41.1 grade. However, his 2023 marks were all on par with his three-year average in YCO (2.8), MTF (13%), EXP (9%) and PFF Rush Grade (72.5). So, we shouldn’t expect a sudden renaissance efficiency season from Barkley — all of his career-high marks came before his 2020 ACL injury.
2024 Fantasy Outlook
If Barkley lands on a team with a clear runway for snaps, he offers mid-range RB1 upside with a mid-range RB2 floor. He needs the passing-down reps to reach his potential, given his lackluster rushing performance peripherals since the ACL injury.
He could theoretically offset the loss of some passing-down work as the primary ball carrier inside the five-yard line on a quality offense, but that is a tighter needle to thread. Historical data shows that passing-down work correlates more strongly with scoring fantasy points, and the signal is far superior in year-over-year analysis.
New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) heads to the goal line in the second quarter past Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Nolan Smith (3), Sunday, January 7, 2024.
The trap-door floor scenario would be landing on a low-scoring team with a high-end passing-down back that limits Barkley to early downs. That runout could push him into low-end RB2 or even high-end RB3 territory.
Barkley is coming off the board as the RB8 in early fantasy drafts at the end of Round 2 — slightly behind where he landed in my way-too-early Top 150 rankings. He likely plummets into Round 3 with a lousy landing spot but could climb back to the middle of Round 2 on an ascending offense like the Texans.
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2. Josh Jacobs
The Raiders gave Jacobs a one-year deal last season and he uderperformed, but Antonio Pierce likes him and wants to run the ball. That keeps the door open for the franchise tag if they can't reach a deal.
However, if Las Vegas is a big believer in RB efficiency, they might not want to spend that much on Jacobs — even if it is for only one season. The 2019 Round 1 NFL Draft pick registered career lows in YCO, MTF, EXP and PFF Run Grade.
Based on data from the last three seasons, none of those rushing performance peripherals even cracks RB3 status. Still, Jacobs dominated in the categories that matter the most with a 79% rush share, including 87% of the carries inside the five-yard line, and a 52% route participation, while he tied his career-high in TPRR at 22%.
Most importantly, Jacobs’ workload data aligns with his career averages. He has eclipsed RB1 thresholds per game every season and reached at least an RB2 level in route participation in the last three campaigns.
Jacobs will only be 26 when the 2024 season starts — well within the confines of the prime years for RB production. So, it is important not to overreact to his 2023 efficiency numbers. The last time fantasy drafters did that heading into the 2022 season, Jacobs finished as the RB3 with 19.4 points per game. While we could look back at the 2022 season as an outlier when Jacobs’ career is over, the same could be true for his historically bad 2023 campaign.
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Jacobs has been a mid-range RB2 to low-end RB1 in four out of five seasons — excluding his top-three performance in 2022. That feels like a safe range to project him within again in 2024, assuming he lands on a team without intense competition for touches.
While Jacobs has been solid in the passing game, he is more of a check-down option than a player you highly integrate into downfield route combinations. This is an important spot to remember the signal loss in route participation and target share for RBs changing teams. If Jacobs lands on a depth chart with a talented pass-catching back or a team flush with high-end WRs and TEs, his target share could take a hit, pushing him into the low-end RB2 or RB3 territory.
The trap-door floor scenario for Jacobs is similar to Barkley’s — he needs to avoid landing on a low-rent offense with a pass-catching option already aboard. That combination would mute his ability to offset the loss of passing downs with carries inside the five-yard line.
Jacobs is my No. 55 player overall to start the 2024 offseason. The sixth-year back is coming off the board at pick 58 in early Underdog best-ball drafts.
Expect ADP to climb significantly if he lands on an RB-needy quality offense like the Texans, Chargers, Cowboys, Ravens or Eagles. If he stays with the Raiders and they upgrade at QB, we could also see him rise.
3. Tony Pollard
Pollard was one of the biggest busts of the 2023 fantasy season. After getting drafted as the RB7, he barely managed a top-24 finish as the RB23. Pollard averaged 13.1 points per game, 3.8 points less than the RB7 over the last three seasons.
After looking like one of the most explosive RBs in the league over his first four seasons, the fifth-year back bottomed out with career lows in YCO, MTF and EXP.
We can’t rule out the theory that Pollard’s efficiency faded when faced with an expanded workload. However, I am skeptical, given that Pollard didn’t look right from the start in 2023. The theory that Pollard struggled due to the tight-rope surgery from last offseason also can’t be dismissed, but that would only explain his slow start unless he picked up a compensatory injury.
That brings me to a third theory. What if it was just plain variance? Efficiency stats can be highly volatile from year to year, which is why they rank last in my methodology.
Pollard’s efficiency wasn’t the primary factor driving down his fantasy performance. His 1,317 scrimmage yards were only 62 yards off from his expected total, per PFF. Pollard’s lackluster season came down to scoring six TDs, which was 7.9 below expected.
He only punched in three scores on 17 totes from inside the five-yard line. If you add in the 2.8 points per game Pollard left on the field in TDs, his fantasy points come to 15.9 points per game — just one point below his draft position as the RB7.
We can’t completely ignore Pollard’s crater performance, but he will only be 27 years old and is coming off of a season where he reached RB1 status in attempt share and route participation. While his TPRR also dipped to a career-low of 16%, his career average is still 21% — also RB1-worthy.
2024 Fantasy Outlook
I expect Pollard’s inefficient 2023 campaign to keep him from landing a significant contract and create a time-share approach with his next coaching staff. However, we shouldn’t conclude that Pollard is washed or can’t handle a large workload.
The landing spot will matter, but we could see him return to top-24 status in a part-time role as long as it includes passing downs. If he lands on an RB-poor team or has to take over a more significant workload due to a teammate's injury, we could see a return to RB1 territory.
Dec 24, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard (20) runs the ball against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
There is better than a non-zero chance that Pollard will be the best RB in this free-agency class. He has a lot of outs thanks to his ability to contribute on early downs and in the passing game, and has demonstrated high-end efficiency more recently than Barkley or Jacobs.
Pollard currently ranks as my RB25 and goes in Round 7 of fantasy drafts.
4. D’Andre Swift
Swift garnered the most extensive rushing workload of his career, handling 52% of the Eagles' designed rushing attempts. However, the fantasy points didn’t follow along, with the fourth-year RB averaging a career-low 12.6 points per contest to finish as the RB24.
While Swift saw an RB2-worthy route participation, his TPRR dipped to 17%, an eight-percentage point drop from his three-year average of 25%.
Ultimately, it wasn’t Jalen Hurts’ scrambling (7%) that limited Swift in the passing game. It was Kenneth Gainwell retaining 81% of the snaps in the two-minute offense combined with a loaded receiving corps including A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
Jalen Hurts gobbled up 47% of the team's attempts inside the five-yard line, which put the finishing touches on Swift’s demise. Stripped of high-leverage snaps that amplify fantasy production, Swift never became a difference-maker in fantasy lineups.
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Seeing a team hand over a full-time workload to Swift might not be in the cards to kick off the season. However, Swift will only be 27 and has the skills to carve out a role as a contributor on the ground or in the passing game.
He could carve out a top-24 finish in PPR formats as a team’s primary passing-down back and the change-of-pace option on the ground. However, his dual-threat nature means he offers every-down upside if he impresses in camp or a teammate suffers an injury.
5. Derrick Henry
Henry checks almost every RB1 box in the rushing categories but falls short of RB3 status in the route participation department.
On the one hand, that is a big limitation, given how vital receiving ability is to separating backs with similar rushing workloads. On the other hand, the rushing workload is the most sticky statistic for RBs changing teams, and many of the other backs on this list could be in for a downturn in that department.
Henry will be 30 years old when the 2024 season starts, which puts him in the age bucket where the chances of handling a significant workload decrease. He is likely still capable of delivering on the ground and generating RB1 value, but can he reach the number of attempts he needs?
On a positive note, his performance as a rusher will likely create a market for his services. In fact, I think there is a decent chance that NFL teams will value Henry as the No. 1 available option, given all of the RB contracts are likely to be short-term. That could give Henry the chance to hone in on a situation where playing time is abundant on a good offense.
2024 Fantasy Outlook
If Henry lands on a quality offense without competition for early-down work, he will still offer low-end RB1 upside if he can remain healthy. However, if he lands on a low-quality offense that splits the rushing workload, he won’t have many fantasy outs. Last season, Henry dominated the rushing attempts on a poor offense and scored 14 points per game to finish as the RB18. If that rush share reduces to half, it would likely push him outside the top 24 RBs.
6. Austin Ekeler
Ekeler retained an RB2-level in rush share and, more importantly, hit RB1 marks in the passing game. Unfortunately, his fantasy output didn’t cooperate with his lowest outing since his rookie season, averaging 13.8 points per game (RB20). His rushing efficiency took a beating, registering career lows in YCO, EXP and PFF Run Grade, but the veteran battled through a high-ankle sprain for a portion of the season.
Ekeler will be 29 next season, which increases the risk regarding his ability to maintain a large workload. However, his 25% TPRR tells us he could still have more to offer in the passing game, and he has a history of earning work inside the five-yard line. Over the last three seasons, he handled 51% of those totes for the Chargers.
2024 Fantasy Outlook
The bust factor with Ekeler is high, given his age and efficiency challenges. However, his versatility gives him a chance to compete for playing time in almost all landing spots. The eighth-year RB seems unlikely to land a bell-cow role, but he could still deliver RB2 value as a part-time player and offer contingency low-end RB1 upside if his teammates falter.
Other Notable Free Agents
Devin Singletary
After taking over the lead RB role in Week 9, Singletary performed admirably, averaging 13.6 fantasy points per game. Over that stretch, he accounted for 69% of the team’s rushing attempts and posted a 53% route participation. However, the competition for touches was low, with Dameon Pierce falling flat on his face and missing time.
Ultimately, no team has settled on Singletary as their lead back for an entire season, which isn’t a great sign. Still, most of his data points hit RB2 and RB3 thresholds, so there is a chance the 27-year-old provides value again at some point in the 2024 season. His best chance at a full-time role from the get might be returning to the Texans.
Zack Moss
Moss was an early-season fantasy darling when he averaged 17 fantasy points per game in his first three contests with Jonathan Taylor on the sideline. If he lands on an RB-needy team, he could move into the mid-to-low-end RB3 conversation for 2024.
J.K. Dobbins
Dobbins’ season was cut short again by an injury (Achilles), which could create a lack of suitors in free agency. The former second-round draft pick flashed explosive playmaking ability early in his career, but it is hard to know if any of that remains after an MCL/ACL tear in 2021 and Achilles injury in 2023. He will only be 25 next season.
AJ Dillon
Dillon hasn’t been up to the task of unseating Aaron Jones as the lead back in Green Bay — but that isn’t an easy ask. Still, the former Round 2 NFL Draft selection hasn’t done himself many favors in the performance department. He isn’t a high-end target earner and his efficiency profile grades below RB3 levels.
Antonio Gibson
Gibson never was able to carve out a full-time role in Washington but showed promise on passing downs with an average TPRR of 22%. That is RB1-worthy, but it seems odd that the team never committed to him as a 50% route participation player.
He made strides as a runner in 2023 on a small sample, which keeps me interested in his landing spot — especially if he can find a pass-friendly team without a passing-down back or too many options at WR/TE. Gibson will only be 26.
Gus Edwards
Edwards graded out at RB3 levels across the board in the rushing department and fell short of RB3 levels in the receiving game. Even if the 29-year-old luckboxes a juicy landing spot, it will be hard to get excited without injuries to his RB teammates.
Ezekiel Elliott
Elliott averaged 16.6 points per game after the loss of Rhamondre Stevenson, but given his profile, it is hard to see a team investing much. On the surface, his 25% TPRR looks strong, but that was a career-high, and the Patriots had no good receiving options. His career TPRR average is 16%, and he doesn’t profile as a high route participation back without massive injuries to a team’s backfield.
Kareem Hunt
Age is a real bummer. Rewind to 2021, and Hunt was one of the most talented dual-threat backs in the league. Those days are gone. It is hard to perform worse than Hunt did in 2023, and he might not get another contract.
