The 2024 schedule has officially been released. Kudos to the Titans, Chargers, Patriots and Falcons for stealing the show with some A+ release videos – but now it's time to focus on what REALLY matters: Fantasy football implications, baby.

What follows are six of the biggest fantasy football takeaways from the 2024 NFL schedule release. Talk about a great day to be great.

Fantasy Football Playoff Implications

Soooo any fantasy playoffs intel?!

This is a good cheat sheet for team matchups in Weeks 15-17.

There's also good information here on teams with the most dome/potential good weather games during these ever-important weeks.

This is … mostly just funny. Revenge games matter. Billy Walters even said so in The Gambler. Look it up.

Anyways, Fantasy Life's own Pete Overzet has made a compelling case that Week 17 is all that matters in large best ball tournaments like Best Ball Mania. As Pete notes, this isn't a license to be a f*cking idiot (okay, those were my words), but leveraging any minute correlation advantage should be taken advantage of if possible in these sorts of massive "shoot for the moon" contests:

“There will be a temptation to “reach” ahead of ADP to complete your stacks in fear of missing out. But if we are constantly reaching for these stacks, then we are going to cancel out the correlation benefits and end up with teams that are watered-down versions of other teams who were more patient. Think of correlating your players as a boost and reaching ahead of ADP as a negative. When you correlate with strong ADP values, then you are able to enjoy the correlation boost without hurting your team.”

Again: Focus on the stacking element here more so than specific perceived matchup advantages. Attempting to capitalize on perceived player vs. defense advantages for December matchups in May is absolutely looney.

Discourse on DST advantages for September matchups in May on the other hand…

Best Defenses to Target After NFL Schedule Release

DST talk? In May? Are you Crazy?

Maybe, but you're reading this so it looks like we're in the same boat. Welcome, friend.

There will always be a handful of defenses worth starting in fantasy land almost regardless of the opponent like the Cowboys, Ravens and Browns among others.

Still, using a non-last-round pick on the position is lame and stupid (per sources), so it's nice to be able to at least bank September with a DST that 1.) Doesn't completely suck, and 2.) Has a nice run of good early-season matchups.

Presenting, three DSTs that probably won't be overly expensive come August and sure seem to boast the sort of opening schedules that could help alleviate any concerns about their unit's overall ability:

  • Texans (at IND, vs. CHI, at MIN, vs. JAX): Demeco Ryan's young group posted a top-10 mark in EPA allowed per play from Week 10 through their AFC Divisional Round loss last season. The Texans could make life ROUGH on these young QBs should free agent additions Danielle Hunter, Azeez Al-Shaair and Denico Autry meaningfully improve a pass rush that already produced the sixth-best quick pressure rate (under 2.5 seconds) last season.
     
  • Chargers (vs. LV, at CAR, at PIT): The defense maintains arguably four blue chip players in EDGE's Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack as well as S Derwin James and CB Asante Samuel Jr. New DC Jesse Minter hails from the same philosophy as former Ravens DC/now Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald; it'd make sense if Harbaugh's rock 'em, sock 'em attack at least takes advantage of this smashable season-opening stretch.
     
  • Broncos (at SEA, vs. PIT, at TB): It feels weird to say "Other than the time they gave up 63 points they were actually pretty good" but here goes nothing: The Broncos boasted the league's 11th-best defense in EPA per play after their Week 3 debacle against the Dolphins and soar as high as sixth if we move our arbitrary cutoff to Week 6. Their own QB situation adds some doubt to just how much they can take advantage of these matchups, but beggars can't be choosers in the final round of fantasy drafts.

The Panthers (NO, LAC, LV) and the Steelers (ATL, DEN, LAC, IND) also qualify as having cozy-ish starts especially if you're under the impression that Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers won't get much done offensively this season; just realize Justin Herbert remains very good at football and has made a habit of taking care of it over the years.

Final note: The Giants (MIN, WSH, CLE) admittingly have a solid opening three weeks, but making that leap of faith isn't easy when considering the potential for either Daniel Jones or Drew Lock to sabotage the team's chances via turnovers and/or reckless decision-making.

Okay, fine, just a little more early-season matchup talk…

Fantasy Football QB Streamers for 2024

Need a QB streamer?

Three stand out as having the sorts of fantasy-friendly early-season schedules that you might just be able to ride into October:

  • Jayden Daniels (QB13, pick 105.6 ADP): I know: We're stretching the limits on "streamer" here, but the man still has a triple-digit ADP over at Underdog Fantasy so YOU chill out. Anyway, the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 2 overall pick gets the Buccaneers (27th in 2023 fantasy points per game allowed to QBs), Giants (15th), Bengals (20th) and Cardinals (26th) out of the gate. QBs with Daniels' potential rushing volume don't really bust in fantasy land.
     
  • Baker Mayfield (QB21, pick 157.9 ADP): The reigning QB14 in fantasy points per game ahead of Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa if we include playoff performance easily has the position's easiest opening four weeks in terms of average 2023 opposing defense rank in fantasy points per game allowed to the position: Commanders (32nd), Lions (30th), Broncos (19th), Eagles (31st) and Falcons (23) – and all five contests come at home or indoors.
     
  • Russell Wilson (QB32, pick 211.2 ADP): Current DraftKings odds have Wilson as a massive -700 favorite to get the first snap of next season ahead of Justin Fields. Should that come to fruition, Mr. Unlimited gets the Falcons (23rd), Broncos (19th), Chargers (25th) and Colts (18th) to start the season – a friendly reminder Russ finished last season as the QB13 in fantasy points per game (17.1) just 0.38 points behind that Patrick Mahomes guy.

Ideally, you wind up drafting a superior top-five caliber fantasy QB ahead of these guys, but hey, good luck if not.

Speaking of top-five (paid) QBs…

Weather Impacts from 2024 NFL Schedule Release

Jared Goff, QB - Lions

"Mother nature is a $&*#!." – Jared Goff

Goff won't be forced to play outside of room temperature until November when the Lions travel to Lambeau Field. Hell, his only other road games are in Week 16 and 17 against the Bears (okay, that will probably suck) and the 49ers (no worries!).

That said: Goff's indoor/outdoor splits sure seem to be a bit overrated.

For his career he's averaged 7.37 yards per attempt in domes … and 7.4 outside. The passer rating (99.3 vs. 89.5) and completion rate (67.5% vs. 62.4%) are in favor of domes for Goff; just realize abiding by this "law" would have prevented you from cashing on baller performances against the Buccaneers (353-2-0) and Panthers (355-3-0) over the past two seasons.

Don't get me wrong: There have been plenty of duds from Goff outdoors over the past few seasons, but the potential for inclement weather (specifically high winds) and a bad matchup far outweigh concern over whether or not there's a complete roof over the player's heads.

With that said…

Tua Tagovailoa, QB - Dolphins

Winter is coming for Tua Tagovailoa.

And it could especially rear its ugly head in matchups that also just so happen to be against tough defenses. From November 17 to January 5 the Dolphins' schedule is as follows:

  • Week 11: vs. Raiders
    Week 12: vs. Patriots
  • Week 13: at Packers
  • Week 14: vs Jets
  • Week 15: at Texans
  • Week 16: vs. 49ers
  • Week 17: at Browns
  • Week 18: at Jets

The architect of The Greatest Show on Surf™ has had some awesome highs over the last two seasons. Seriously: Tua has posted top-five numbers in EPA per dropback (No. 5), completion percentage over expected (No. 4) and PFF pass grade (No. 1) among 36 qualified QBs since 2022!

And yet, a look at his fantasy points per game by month since joining forces with Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill is … horrific:

  • September: 22.1
  • October: 18.7
  • November: 16.9
  • December: 14.1
  • January: 10

I'll admit, there's a little bit of f*ckery going on here I'll admit. Can you blame me? Look at that trend! It's provocative!

But yeah: Only two January games were included in that sample, and even a quick eye-test look at the specific late-season opponents demonstrates the reality that strength of schedule probably played a bigger factor than the temperature.

Sadly (for Tua's future fantasy managers), this year's final eight games feature six matchups against reigning top-10 defenses in EPA allowed per play.

The Week 17 matchup against Myles Garrett and company initially seems particularly concerning considering just how cold and ugly weather can get in Cleveland in late December. Week 18's road spot against the Jets should be enough reason for any weirdos with final-week championship games out there to get with the times and cut that shit out.

Speaking of things that annoy me…

2024 NFL Bye Week Breakdown

Why is it so hard to evenly space out by weeks?

There are 32 NFL teams. Give four squads a bye per week from Week 5 to 12 and call it a day. Right? RIGHT?

Wrong. The NFL only has two teams on bye in both Week 7 and Week 9, while Week 8 gets a full 32-game slate for whatever reason.

Fantasy playoffs almost always start in Week 15, but it's still annoying to have six teams on bye during what often winds up being a key matchup right before. This year fantasy managers with Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Jayden Daniels will have to find subs with the fantasy season potentially on the line.

You can check out the full bye week schedule here, although overlapping bye weeks is nowhere near the top of things I make a habit of actively considering when making most fantasy draft picks. Don't get me wrong: Avoid having the same QB/TE bye weeks on best ball squads when you're spending up and don't want to have to draft another one, but generally just focus on picking the best player, man.