There’s no real mystery to determining if an RB has fantasy value.

We know what it takes for them to score points. 

Earning touches is the obvious goal. But even that simplistic idea requires context. Think about it. A carry from the 50-yard line offers more potential than a rush from the five. So, rushers who earn those (along with early-down work, not just short-yardage specialists) automatically gain consideration. And with PPR scoring, RBs who run routes and accumulate targets are solid staples of any roster.

So, again, we know “what” to look for in drafts. But where? That’s (literally) a whole other question.

Skill set and talent sometimes give way to opportunity. Josh Jacobs might be a better pure runner, but he had seven fewer touches than Chuba Hubbard last year. Accordingly, with free agency and the draft ahead of us, identifying the rushers with the most to gain (or lose) over the next couple months will help us set market expectations.

James Cook, Bills

James Cook was the RB12 in PPR scoring.

But it didn’t feel like it.

He had the fewest top-12 finishes of any of the RB1s. However, he had peaks of efficiency to smooth over his lack of opportunity. Of the 27 RBs with more than 40% of their team’s carries, Cook’s analytical profile sticks out.

  • Rushing Success Rate: 7th
  • EPA per Rush: 9th
  • Adjusted Yards after Contact per Carry: 14th
  • Yards per Route Run: 3rd

At or above average in almost every metric? Great! However, one metric in which he lagged behind his RB1 peers was earning carries.

James Cook

Only Bijan Robinson had a lower rate of his team’s carries than Cook. And we know how much of a headache the Falcons’ RB was at times. 

Additionally, the presence of Latavius Murray decimated any shot at Cook working on his short-yardage skills. Murray took 46% of the carries with three or fewer yards to go compared to Cook’s 34%. Plus, both RBs had their QB to contend with once the Bills got into scoring position.

Cook chart

Josh Allen will always be a factor. But Murray is looking for his seventh team to join in free agency. There’s no question Cook can be a high-end rusher and create explosives as a receiver. If Buffalo doesn’t add another short-yardage specialist, Cook’s red-zone opportunities should increase, making his 2023 results easier to replicate in 2024.

Zamir White, Raiders

WIth Josh Jacobs signing in Green Bay, here’s a look at the Jacobs-sized hole in the offense with his departure.

  • Early-Down: 83.6%
  • Short-Yardage: 92.0%
  • Routes per Team Dropback: 53.0%
  • Inside the 5: 51.0.%

Prior to missing the final four games of the regular season, Jacobs was second in total touches (270) among NFL running backs. Ameer Abdullah (remember him?) only had a claim to the long-down-and-distance and two-minute snaps. All of which left Zamir White in a contingency role.

By Week 14, the former Georgia Bulldog had 26 touches. His inability to wedge himself into Jacobs’ workload was a concern after sitting behind the All-Pro rusher. However, once Jacobs got injured, White’s workload was hard to distinguish from Jacobs.

Raiders Rushers

HC Antonio Pierce treated White like an RB1. But the Raiders’ definition of an RB1 may be changing as we head into 2024. And the front office’s team-building philosophy also poses a challenge.

Telesco noted wanting two or three backs to carry the load. While this conflicts with Pierce’s approach, additions and a potential re-signing appear possible. As a result, getting aggressive on White would be an ill-advised move until we get through the draft.

Rachaad White, Buccaneers

Remember when I talked earlier about contextualized touches like green-zone carries and targets matter more for RBs?

Understanding this is good. Identifying rushers who will earn those touches can be critical to drafting winning teams. However, we can apply this logic incorrectly at times. I’ll explain.

Bad teams score fewer points. Their talent level relative to their opponents will keep them from gaining yards and getting into the end zone. Accordingly, their RBs will have fewer money touches. Intuitively, this makes sense. However, we don’t know who will be bad! And, even better, after pulling the last five years of top-12 data, bad teams don’t necessarily prohibit their ball carriers from being RB1s in fantasy. 

Offensive EPA

So, we can’t predict who will be bad. Plus, even if the team is bad, if a player gets enough volume, it might not matter.

Enter Rachaad White.

The Buccaneers entered the final weeks of the preseason without a starter. Baker Mayfield didn’t earn the job until after a month of competing with Kyle Trask. So, the corresponding move from fantasy managers was to leave White’s value in limbo.

It didn’t matter his only competition was Chase Edmonds and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. The threat of a Leonard Fournette re-signing wasn’t much of an issue. The concern was how many times Tampa would get into scoring position. We worried about the quality of the offense. But, in the end, all that mattered was White got the ball when it counted.

Rachaad White

Admittedly, the offense turning into the 12th-best squad in EPA per play was a happy bonus. But White’s usage put him in the company of high-end grinders. Of the 12 RBs who handled over 50% of their team’s carries, White had the third-highest share of carries from inside the 5-yard line (75.0%). Only Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall had higher target shares.

Tampa is heading into the 2024 offseason with most of the band returning on offense. Mayfield got his extension. Mike Evans is a Buc for life. And again, White’s only competition for touches is Edmonds. With the latest mocks having the Bucs address their defense early, White has a chance of having another year with a vice grip on the backfield.

Brian Robinson, Commanders

I’ll admit I have a problem with extrapolating from small sample sizes.

Call it wish-casting if you want. But if I see a player do something good, I’ll expect the coaching staff to put him in a position to do it again. Seems logical, right? Brian Robinson’s 2023 usage is a fine example.

Robinson improved in nearly every category after logging nine games in his rookie season and starting the majority of the ’23 campaign.

  • Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 15.6% (2022), 20.8% (2023)
  • Adjust YAC per Attempt: 3.01, 3.26
  • Yards per Route Run: 0.72. 1.69

But Antonio Gibson was still there. The team also drafted Chris Rodriguez (albeit in the sixth round). It didn’t keep Robinson from being the team’s RB1. He earned 55% of the totes on the season. However, it did keep him from being an RB1 in fantasy without more touches.

Until Week 11 came along.

Gibson missed the game, leaving the backfield to Robinson. Washington’s playoff hopes were already circling the drain, and Sam Howell’s time as a starter was coming to an end. But we didn’t see a committee rotation. Instead, we saw what a life with B-Rob as an RB1 could look like.

Bijan Robinson

The routes and two-minute usage are especially intriguing. Essentially, for a single game, Robinson absorbed Gibson’s role on the team while keeping his own. And the Commanders’ current roster could make Week 11 a reality.

Gibson is now in New England battling with Rhamondre Stevenson. And, without question, Washington’s offensive focus is on who will be under center at the start of the 2024 season. With most of the FA RBs taken, Robinson has the chance to move into the fringe-RB1 tier in terms of workload should things break right for him over the next two months.