Table of Contents
  1. Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024: Position by Position
  2. Quarterback
  3. Running Back
  4. Wide Receiver
  5. Tight End
  6. Vikings 2024 Season Prediction
  7. More 2024 NFL Team Previews

Six years of the Kirk Cousins experience led the Vikings to one NFC North title and a single playoff victory. While the team briefly stood tall with back-to-back wins in his absence, Minnesota went on to lose six of their last seven games despite largely getting more out Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens than anyone could have hoped for.

Enter: 2024, and the presence of two new QBs suddenly has the Vikings (seemingly) in rebuild mode for the first time in a minute. A quick overview of the Vikings' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

Of course, the presence of a young, high-end QB has a way of accelerating rebuilds in a hurry. Just ask the 2023 Texans. But is that what we're looking at here? Let's find out.

Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024: Position by Position

Quarterback

While McCarthy didn't offer a ton of elite counting numbers of volume during his three years at Michigan, he did boast some pretty enticing underlying efficiency numbers that certainly helped lead to him being a top-10 selection:

The bigger question is just how quickly McCarthy will be able to translate his talents to the next level. The man did just turn 21 in January, after all, and it's not even a guarantee he'll take the first snap of the season ahead of Sam Darnold, who opened as a -160 favorite to do just that over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Getting to throw to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison from Day 1 while working behind a solid offensive line should certainly help matters; just realize only four rookies have posted top-12 numbers at the position over the past 10 years (Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray), and McCarthy doesn't seem to boast the sort of locked-in Day 1 starting job and rushing upside to become the fifth.

JJ McCarthy

December 31, 2022; Glendale, Ariz; USA; Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy (9) throws a pass during the pregame before the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Ncaa Fiesta Bowl Game

Consider: McCarthy's 4.2 fantasy points per game from purely rushing production over the last two seasons were closer to Michael Penix (2.2) than Bo Nix (7.3) in this class. This isn't to suggest McCarthy can't move (he can), but he also doesn't exactly profile as someone who will consistently be looking to beat defenses on the ground.

This doesn't mean we should be expecting Darnold to exactly make much happen in fantasy land during his potential spell under center. There have been plenty of examples of Darnold flashing all-world arm talent over the years; film-grinding scholars will certainly lean on these sporadic moments of dopeness to flex their superior football knowledge on us mere mortals.

That said: The No. 3 overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft has been one of the game's least efficient QBs since entering the league by almost any commonly used advanced metric.

Darnold among 76 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks since 2018:

  • EPA per dropback: -0.046 (No. 63)
  • Completion percentage over expected: -2% (No. 61)
  • PFF pass grade: 59.7 (No. 60)
  • Passer rating: 78.3 (No. 67)
  • Yards per attempt: 6.7 (No. 56)

The likes of Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall combined to average 16.2 fantasy points per game from Week 9 to 18 last season, which doesn't measure up to what Cousins (18.7) achieved during the first two months of the year, but also demonstrates that there could be a higher floor than anticipated for Darnold/McCarthy by virtue of 1.) ead coach Kevin O'Connell being very good at his job, and 2.) This supporting cast generally being pretty great.

Bottom line: McCarthy doesn't exactly fit the mold as a likely Year 1 superstar in fantasy land, but his cozy offensive environment could produce the occasional boom week. He's certainly a decent enough candidate to outperform his affordable QB24, pick 179.3 ADP and is an easy top-seven selection in rookie drafts only behind the big three QBs and WRs.

Running Back

While Father Time is coming for Jones (30 next December), the longtime stud looked better than ever down the stretch of last season upon returning from a hamstring injury:

  • Week 16: 21 carries-127 rush yards-0 TD
  • Week 17: 20-120-0
  • Week 18: 22-111-0
  • Wild Card: 21-118-3
  • Divisional Round: 18-108-0

Jones was his usual efficient self on the ground all season long, ranking eighth in EPA per rush and yards per carry in 2023 (including playoffs). Going from the PFF’s 11th-ranked offensive line to their 12th should hopefully be a fairly smooth transition.

The main two problems:

  1. Scoring upside. The Green Bay offense was playing as well as any group in the league down the stretch of last season … and Sam Darnold is the current betting favorite to be under center come Week 1 for the Vikings.
  2. Pass-game usage. Kevin O’Connell has taken a page out of his old boss Sean McVay’s book and largely refrained from featuring his RBs in the passing game: The Vikings join the Ravens and Rams as the only three teams averaging fewer than 75 total targets to their RBs over the past two seasons.

Competition in the form of Ty Chandler and Kene Nwangwu shouldn’t be much of a factor considering both were multiple injuries away from relevance in 2023. Perhaps this is Jones’ path to continued high-end success: A bigger down-to-down role than he’s ever had would certainly help make up for the likely loss of overall TD and target upside.

Ultimately, Fantasy Life Projections have the following RBs receiving between 150 and 200 carries and 50-plus targets; these are the sort of pass-down-friendly 1.A committee pieces capable of providing extra fantasy value in full-PPR formats. In order of their current Underdog ADP…

Obviously, the top three backs have a bit more youth and offensive scoring upside on their sides, but each of Kamara, Jones and Stevenson offer solid mid-round value in full-PPR formats thanks to their similar projected workloads and potential to largely take over their respective backfields.

Chandler deserves to be the preferred handcuff, although expecting any level of standalone value seems unwise. Even the handcuff upside isn't exactly astronomical; the 2022 fifth-round pick racked up 27, eight, 13 and 15 combined carries and targets in his four starts to end 2023 — not exactly the sort of workhorse role to freak out about in fantasy land.

Bottom line: Jones is a solid zero/hero-RB pick regularly available after the top-40 WRs, top-seven TEs and top-six QBs are off the board.

Even if Father Time is probably going to be annoying in terms of efficiency and health, it's hard to be too far out on an explosive, pass-catching RB expected to push for 250 combined carries and targets.

Chandler is a fine enough handcuff, although I generally prefer cheaper RBs like Ray Davis, Antonio Gibson and Jaleel McLaughlin in that range thanks to their heightened potential to seize more standalone value.

Wide Receiver

The history of rookie QBs enabling high-end fantasy WRs is, well, not good. The No. 1 fantasy WR in PPR points per game has posted the following production from 41 offenses that have started a rookie QB for at least 10 games in a season since 2010:

  • 5/41 finished in the top-12 (12%)
  • 13/41 finished in the top-24 (32%)
  • Average finish: WR33
  • Median finish: WR35
  • High: WR7
  • Low: WR67

Of course, Justin Jefferson isn't your everyday No. 1 WR. The man has averaged 106 and 107 receiving yards per game over the past two seasons, emerging as the typical frontrunner on count-down lists of the game's very best players at the position.

Overall, only Tyreek Hill has averaged more yards per route run than Jefferson (2.67) since the latter WR entered the league back in 2020. The QB concerns here are real, but MAN is it tough to wrap the mind around fading this sort of ascending talent.

A similar sentiment is true for Addison to a lesser extent (obviously). The 23rd overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft made more than a few big plays as a rookie and suddenly faces less target competition than ever with T.J. Hockenson potentially starting the season on the PUP list (more on that in a bit) and K.J. Osborn now resides in New England.

The problem for Addison is the same as Jefferson: Potential for meh QB performance. Note that Addison caught seven TDs in eight games with Cousins under center … and three in nine games without.

Sep 10, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison (3) reacts with wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) after scoring his first career touchdown pass from quarterback Kirk Cousins (not pictured) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Ultimately, Fantasy Life Projections have Jefferson dominating this passing game with 150 targets … while Addison gets 98. No other WR is expected to reach even 50; this looks far more like a Batman and Robin sort of setup as opposed to a legit 1.A/1.B situation without the guarantee of high-end QB play or passing volume.

Bottom line: Jefferson should see enough volume to still return top-five goodness in fantasy land with his talent level; the only WRs I'll be drafting ahead of him are CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Meanwhile, Addison's WR38 (pick 68.5) seems a bit steep from an overall standpoint; I've preferred drafting similarly-priced RBs like Aaron Jones, David Montgomery and Rhamondre Stevenson at that point in drafts.

Tight End

Hockenson was putting together the most productive season of his career before tearing both his ACL and MCL on Christmas Eve. His Jan. 29, 2024 surgery date won’t help his chances of returning by Week 1.

Both Dr. Jesse Morse and Dr. Jeff Mueller believe Hockenson could miss half of the 2024 season with an overall performance dip until 2025. 90% of Hockenson would still be better than most TEs — he and Travis f*cking Kelce were the top two players at the position in PPR points per game last season, after all — but the playing time uncertainty combined with the potential dropoff of the passing game makes him a VERY risky pick anywhere near the position’s top-12 options.

The Vikings put forward the following TE usage in the absence of Hockenson:

  • Mundt: 75% routes, 20% target share, TE6 and TE10 finishes
  • Oliver: 26% routes, 4% target share, TE40 and TE25 finishes

Mundt — the best third TE in the NFL per head coach Kevin O'Connell — has some sneaky-solid early-season streamer upside, but let's not get too carried away with the expectations for any parties involved here.

Bottom line: Hockenson isn't an option for me at his current TE13, pick 115.2 ADP; something closer to the ~150 range is more appropriate for a guy we might not see until November. This makes Mundt an intriguing early-season streamer option for desperate fantasy managers — but c'mon man, there are better options out there.

Vikings 2024 Season Prediction

The 2024 Vikings are hoping that high-priced EDGE additions Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel help improve a pass rush that ranked 28th in pressure rate (31.8%) despite blitzing more than anyone last season. Even a modest improvement in this area could help the league's reigning 17th and 13th-ranked defense in EPA per play and points per game allowed take a leap from good to great.

The NFC North certainly has the look of one of the league's deeper divisions, but giving the Vikings the same 6.5 win total as teams like the lowly Giants, Raiders and Titans seems like a reach. Give me over for seemingly one of the better-coached squads that still has plenty of talent on the roster, even if it's a bit more unproven than we're used to seeing.

More 2024 NFL Team Previews

Ian Hartitz
Ian Hartitz
Ian is a senior fantasy analyst at Fantasy Life and he truly believes every day is a great day to be great. He's spent time with Action Network, NBC Sports and Pro Football Focus over the years, writing and podcasting about all things fantasy football along the way. Ian's process relies on a mix of film analysis and data study; whatever is needed to get the job done (job done). There's no reason fun can't be had along the way — we do live on a rock floating around a ball of fire after all. Outside of football, Ian enjoys MMA, his dachshund Lilly and candles.
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