There are still five more weeks left of the 2023 fantasy football season. Maybe even six if you’re sick enough to play in a league that ends in Week 18; either way, plenty of unexpected madness can and will continue to tilt fantasy managers of all shapes and sizes throughout December.

That said: Enough ball has already been played to reasonably ascertain that we (me) were dead wrong about some of our preseason predictions and overall thoughts on certain situations around the league.

What follows are five specific spots that the fantasy community as a whole simply got wrong this season. As always: It’s a great day to be great.

Turns out Jerry Jeudy isn’t the No. 1 WR in Denver

Hand up: I drafted far too much Jeudy in the middle rounds of 2023 fantasy drafts. The reasoning was fairly simple: Jeudy had pretty great underlying efficiency numbers in 2023 (12th in yards per route run) and seemingly emerged as Russell Wilson’s go-to target down the stretch by working as the overall PPR WR6 during the final month and a half of 2022.

Pulling a hamstring in late August wasn’t a good start, but the injury wound up only costing Jeudy one game. Since then the 24-year-old talent has managed just one TD while averaging a career-low 44 yards per game. The WR59 in PPR points per game, Jeudy has objectively been one of fantasy’s single-biggest busts of 2023.

His two most memorable moments aren’t great!

  • Steve Smith Sr. went viral for absolutely going off on Jeudy during a pregame rant that peaked with Agent 89 calling the former first-round pick “just a guy.”
  • Jeudy did the always lethal QB scramble move of pump-faking while already downfield even though he had just caught a forward pass. It was awesome.

While Jeudy has surprisingly out-performed teammate Courtland Sutton in yards per reception (11.9 vs. 11.7) and yards per target (8.3 vs. 8.2), the TD tally (1 vs. 8) hasn’t been close in a season that has featured Russell Wilson post the league’s single-best completion percentage over expected (+7%). Throw in a 27th-place ranking in ESPN’s “Open” score, and it’s pretty clear that Smith’s aforementioned analysis of Jeudy being an “average” WR has largely been the case in 2023.

Kudos to Russ and company for ripping off five consecutive wins, but even this hot stretch hasn’t exactly included a major turnaround on offense. Maybe Jeudy finds a way to replicate his 2022 end-of-season goodness — he does have a winnable enough final stretch of matchups against the Texans, Chargers (x2), Lions and Patriots — but that would almost just drive the knife even deeper into fantasy managers considering he’s impossible to trust as anything more than a low-ceiling FLEX at the moment.

Lesson learned: Small-sample end-of-season production spikes on bad teams NEED to be heavily scrutinized (cc. Cam Akers).

Trusting the Arthur Smith-led Falcons offense was a bad choice

This applies to pretty much all parties involved (other than Jonnu Smith, because of course):

  • Desmond Ridder: Occasional cool throw aside: Ridder is tied with Mac Jones for having PFF's highest turnover-worthy play rate (5.8%) and ranks 29th in EPA per dropback (-0.08).
  • Bijan Robinson: The RB15 in PPR points per game, Robinson hasn’t been bad in fantasy this season — but the highly touted “generational” talent has had to make the absolutely most out of his opportunities (sixth in rushing yards over expected) in order to make up for inexplicably averaging just 13.1 *expected* PPR points per game — the 20th-highest mark among all RBs.
  • Tyler Allgeier: His average of 3.7 yards per touch ranks 38th among 40 backs with triple-digit combined carries and receptions this season.
  • Drake London: Usually makes at least one highlight catch per week, but ultimately has just three games with north of 70 receiving yards all season. The last time London visited the end zone with the football in his hands was Week 4; it’s a damn shame a player of his caliber ranks just 40th in expected PPR points per game through 12 weeks.
  • Kyle Pitts: Has now scored just four times in 38 career games. With just two games over 50 receiving yards in 2023, Pitts has once again largely just been undone by the Falcons’ unwillingness to make him a featured part of the passing game. Both Pitts and Jonnu Smith have largely done a good job making the most out of their opportunities; they would be the overall TE3 if we pretended that every team’s TE room was the same person. Pain.

There were certainly red flags going into the season here. Ridder was largely just as inaccurate as Marcus Mariota in his four starts last season, while excess pass-game volume was always going to be an issue inside of an offense fresh off posting the second-lowest pass rate over expected since 2016.

Still: The way in which Smith has gone about explaining his decision-making has made everything that much worse. From chastising the idea of benching Ridder before … benching him, to blaming fantasy football groupthink in response to not giving the football to, you know, the team’s top-10 draft picks enough: Smith’s “I’m the smartest man in the room” act has gotten old with the Falcons ranking just 22nd in points per game and standing as one of just six teams without 30 points in a single game this season.

Congrats to the 5-6 Falcons for presently leading what is EASILY the worst division in football; here’s to hoping they don’t confuse this minor team success as a reason to not make some drastic changes under center in 2024 and beyond.

Lesson learned: Don’t assume the grass will always be greener with a new QB under center no matter how bad the previous signal-caller might have been.

Not trusting the C.J. Stroud-led Texans offense was also a bad choice

Pretty much the only player in this offense that cost any level of 2023 fantasy draft capital was Dameon Pierce … and he’s been the only main contributor to disappoint this season relative to their preseason average draft position (ADP):

  • C.J. Stroud: Preseason ADP: QB24; current PPR points per game rank: QB5
  • Dameon Pierce: RB15; RB44
  • Devin Singletary: RB54; RB39
  • Nico Collins: WR57; WR15
  • Tank Dell: WR73; WR12
  • Robert Woods: WR93; WR65
  • Noah Brown: N/A;  WR20
  • Dalton Schultz: TE12; TE8

Obviously the bulk of the credit goes to Stroud — the rookie is on pace to SHATTER (5,047) Andrew Luck’s NFL record (4,374) for passing yards in Year 1 — but both Collins (No. 7 in ESPN’s Receiver Rating) and Dell (No. 9) especially have flashed legit high-end real-life ability on their way to giving the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 2 overall pick consistently electric avenues to rock on through with the football (see what I did there).

CJ Stroud

Nov 26, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) attempts a pass during the second quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Back in the preseason fantasy managers couldn’t wait for Derrick Henry to get two cracks at the Texans during the fantasy playoffs; suddenly the far more appealing side of that matchup is Stroud and company receiving multiple end-of-season smash spots against the Titans’ perennial pass-funnel defense.

Don’t be surprised if we haven’t even seen Stroud’s 2023 magnum opus just yet.

Lesson learned: Don’t write off the No. 2 overall pick before they play a snap of professional football because of something called an S2 test.

Dolphins RB ADP was way too low across the board

Small pat on the back to your boy: De’Von Achane was one of my favorite mid-round RBs to target in summer drafts thanks to his potential to seize something resembling a featured role in this muddled backfield or make the most out of his touches with more limited work. While knee injuries have cost the breathtaking rookie the opportunity to really boom in fantasy land this season, Acahne is still somehow the overall RB30 despite essentially only playing in three games this year.

The real miss here was the fantasy community letting Raheem Mostert slide so far in drafts. August injuries to Achane (shoulder) and Jeff Wilson (midsection/finger, IR) eventually pushed Mostert’s ADP up to RB41 status by September drafts, but previously the 31-year-old veteran was readily available deep into the later rounds of drafts despite the potential for him to, you know, start at RB inside of an offense that most expected to be quite good.

Overall, both Achane and Mostert find themselves as two of the game’s top-five most-productive backs in terms of PPR points per game:

  1. Christian McCaffrey (24.8 PPR points per game)
  2. Kyren Williams (21.4)
  3. Achane (20.6 — 33.3 if you only include essentially his three healthy games, lol)
  4. Alvin Kamara (19.9)
  5. Mostert (18.4)

Lesson learned: Zero-RB/hero-RB drafters need to take LONG looks at all parties involved inside ambiguous backfields of objectively good offenses. 

Why would anyone ever fade Mike f*cking Evans?

Well, because we’re stupid apparently.

Another answer: Baker Mayfield.

While the former No. 1 overall pick hasn’t been perfect this season, Mayfield has been good enough on his way to posting respectable marks in EPA per dropback (+0.08, 12th) and completion rate over expected (+1.2%, 14th). The often criticized veteran QB probably isn’t the long-term answer under center in Tampa Bay, but Baker has also been far from the only problem for the 4-7 Buccaneers.

Of course, one such explanation for why Mayfield could be performing so much better than expected is simple: Mike Evans. Uncoverable with a perfect pass since the day he stepped on an NFL field, the 30-year-old veteran has continued to bully defenders of all shapes and sizes on his way to racking up 54 receptions for 850 yards and nine (!) TDs through just 11 weeks of action — good for a season-long 83-1,313-14.

And guess what: Evans has looked good on his way to achieving all of this.

Well on his way to racking up an NFL-record 10th-consecutive season with over 1,000 receiving yards, Evans has arguably made his strongest case for the Hall of Fame yet by once again managing to remain largely unstoppable regardless of who happens to be under center.

Lesson learned: Don’t doubt Mike Evans, even if there’s a fire.

Hindsight is certainly 20/20, but you know what President Andrew Jackson used to say: Sometimes the only thing you can do is watch the film and get better. Best of luck to everyone in Week 13 and beyond!

Fantasy Football Regrets