The Hall of Fame Game kicked off three weeks ago on Aug. 1. Since then, injuries, training camp news, and preseason performance have drastically altered average draft position (ADP) throughout the fantasy football industry.

But are the major changes warranted?

What follows is a breakdown of eight BIG ADP changes that have occurred since the beginning of August and whether or not fantasy football managers should chase the rising cost. I used FFPC Main Event fantasy football ADP to get a better idea of what the sharps are actually doing. Note that this format features one QB, four points for passing TDs, full PPR for RBs and WRs, and TE premium scoring (1.5 points per reception).

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Justin Fields Steelers QB1?

  • ADP movement: Pick 350 to 220.8

Russell Wilson has been in "pole position" for the starting QB job in Pittsburgh ever since March, but a training camp calf injury presented plenty of QB1 opportunities for Fields, who impressed enough with the extra reps to make at least one prominent beat reporter believe the ex-Bear will straight up earn the Week 1 starting gig.

While Russ remains the starter on the team's official unofficial depth chart, it certainly looks like the 35-year-old veteran isn't exactly dealing with the world's longest leash. This could open the door up for Fields sooner rather than later, something that would immediately make him a viable QB1 in fantasy football land.

Don't believe me? Consider: Only Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow have averaged more fantasy points per game than Fields over the past two seasons. We've seen far worse passers achieve similar heights in Fantasy Land before. Hell, OC Arthur Smith's last QB, Desmond Ridder, posted six top-12 finishes (!) last season despite, you know, sucking at football.

Verdict: The ADP rise is warranted given the *fantasy* upside if/when the starting job is obtained. Fields is a great late-round second QB addition on rosters that failed to get one of the position's top-12 options.

Potential cut candidate to featured RB1: The Javonte Williams Story

  • ADP movement: Pick 105 to 86

On July 20, the Denver Post's Troy Renck theorized that Williams and Samaje Perine could be battling for a final roster spot in the Broncos' backfield. The idea was that rookie Audric Estime and pint-sized spark plug Jaleel McLaughlin were locks, leaving just one spot remaining for the team's incumbent veterans.

Fast forward to the present day, and suddenly Williams looks like a safe bet to lead the Broncos in touches after posting solid first-team preseason usage and earning plenty of good reviews from head coach Sean Payton. Last season's performance was admittedly rough, but the rising fourth-year talent should find a bit more success an extra year removed from 2022's devastating knee injury—that's what the learned doctors are saying, anyways.

Nobody exactly expects the 2024 Broncos to vie for the league lead in scoring, but that was also the case last year, and it didn't stop the backfield from ranking fourth in expected PPR points per game thanks in large part to a league-high 144 targets to the position.

Verdict: Currently priced as the RB27 alongside fellow 1.A starters like Tony Pollard and Raheem Mostert, Williams' price feels right, even if I don't blame folks for not overly going out of their way to land the 24-year-old talent. He's my RB30 in half-PPR fantasy football rankings.

Rico Dowdle, running back, THE running back, y'all?

  • ADP movement: Pick 133 to 114

The Cowboys' RB room currently features Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott, Royce Freeman, and Deuce Vaughn. Maybe Jerry Jones and company will dip their toes into the post-training camp cut pool, but it'd be pretty surprising to not see the former two backs have at least a decent-sized role in Week 1 and beyond.

But could we be sleeping on Dowdle potentially leading the way all season? The Athletic's Jon Machota noted that Dowdle “has to be the favorite to lead the team in rushing.”

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Nov 30, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle (23) runs the ball while defended by Seattle Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner (54) and safety Julian Love (20) during the first half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Throw in some demonstrated solid ability in the passing game (top-10 in yards per reception and routes run last season), and Dowdle suddenly profiles as a rather pristine zero-RB target as the potential lead back of the league's reigning top-ranked scoring offense.

Verdict: Dowdle has jumped Zeke in ADP and now finds himself going within 10 picks of guys like Zack Moss, Jerome Ford, Nick Chubb, Blake Corum, and Austin Ekeler. I don't consider this price point a screaming "must buy" opportunity, but he remains a solid middle-round option on rosters short at the position at this point of the draft. 

The Tyler Lockett of running backs: Cardinals RB James Conner

  • ADP movement: Pick 82 to 65.2

Whether it was third-round rookie Trey Benson's rather meh preseason debut, or just the reality that Conner is once again locked in as the Cardinals' bell-cow RB: The masses finally seem to be coming around to the idea that the NFL's reigning fourth-ranked RB in yards over expected per carry is a solid fantasy pick.

After all, the man has consistently smashed his manageable to pedestrian preseason ADP in all three of his seasons in Arizona:

Conner preseason ADP and finish in PPR points per game with the Cardinals:

  • 2021: RB35 ADP, RB8 finish
  • 2022: RB15 ADP, RB9 finish
  • 2023: RB25 ADP, RB13 finish 

Age cliff concerns are present for the 29-year-old veteran, but the idea that "he'll get injured" perhaps factored too heavily into the pricing at hand considering Conner has played at least 13 games in all but one of his seven career seasons. Note that Conner's 10 missed games over the last three seasons are the same as Derrick Henry and Breece Hall as well as fewer than guys like Jonathan Taylor (13), Kyren Williams (12), and Christian McCaffrey (11).

Verdict: I've happily been higher on Conner than any Fantasy Life ranker throughout the offseason. He remains one of my favorite mid-round picks and someone who should (again) smash ADP with just a little bit of help from the Injury Gods.

What if this year's Puka Nacua is Cooper Kupp?

  • ADP movement: Pick 40 to 23.5

I kid. Kind of.

Anyways, the discrepancy in ADP between Puka and Kupp always seemed a bit wide to me, and the public apparently now agrees…after Nacua suffered a knee injury that has sidelined him for most of training camp.

Reminder: Nacua and Kupp posted the following production in 12 full games together last season:

  • Nacua: 100 targets, 66 receptions, 1,055 yards, 4 TD
  • Kupp: 99 targets, 63 receptions, 753 yards, 5 TD

Obviously, Puka posted superior efficiency numbers, but Kupp also deserves a bit of slack for largely playing the entire season on a bad hamstring. Here's to hoping longtime WR whisperer Matthew Stafford gets over his own current hamstring issue before too long (he should be fine).

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Dec 31, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) catches a touchdown pass against New York Giants cornerback Nick McCloud (44) during the second quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Verdict: Kupp's newfound second-round price tag is suddenly a steep price to pay considering his performance was already starting to decline in 2022 even before his unfortunate string of injuries. There's a legit age cliff concern here for the 31-year-old veteran; I'll happily sign up for fellow talented, but far younger, guys like Malik Nabers, Jaylen Waddle, and Nico Collins at similar ADP.

Still waiting on that Rashee Rice suspension

  • ADP movement: Pick 61 to 47

The closer we get to Week 1, the closer it seems like Rice's expected suspension will be pushed back to 2025. Now, this is more of an educated guess than fact, but the NFL has historically preferred to let off-the-field issues play out in court before acting on the matter themselves…something that isn't expected to happen until December at the earliest (and even then seems destined to be pushed back).

So if Rice is good to go for Week 1? Look out, because his end-of-season stretch upon finally seizing a full-time starting role in Week 12 was nothing short of spectacular:

  • Week 12: 8 receptions-107 yards-1 TD (10 targets), PPR WR3
  • Week 13: 8-64-0 (9), WR22
  • Week 14: 7-72-1 (10), WR7
  • Week 15: 9-91-1 (9), WR7
  • Week 16: 6-57-0 (12), WR32
  • Week 17: 5-127-0 (6), WR15
  • Wild Card: 8-130-1 (12)
  • Divisional Round: 4-47-0 (4)
  • AFC Championship: 8-46-0 (9)
  • Super Bowl: 6-39-0 (8)

Overall, Rice averaged 16.95 PPR points per game during this stretch—a mark that would have ranked ninth at the position if extrapolated across the entire regular season.

Verdict: Dwain McFarland and I agreed that Rice remains one of the very best picks anyone can make at the moment on last Tuesday's edition of The Fantasy Life Show.

Jake Ferguson looks a lot like Dak Prescott's No. 2 pass-game option

  • ADP movement: Pick 64 to 48.8

This is one of the more wonky ADP changes because there hasn't been a major health change or roster move that seemingly caused this rise. Yes, CeeDee Lamb's holdout hasn't been ideal, but his status as Fantasy's consensus second-overall pick seemingly denotes that most of the public agrees he'll be ready to go by Week 1.

The reigning TE10 in PPR points per game, Ferguson finished as the TE8 if we include every player's playoff production—his 10-93-3 performance in the Cowboys' embarrassing Wild Card loss to the Packers was good for the year's highest single-game mark in total PPR points (37.3). Even if we aren't exactly talking about a George Kittle-level talent at the position, Ferguson has certainly proven capable of providing TE1 production with serious spike week upside.

Fantasy Life projections presently have Ferguson (90 targets) finishing behind only Lamb (160, lol) in Prescott's pecking order. Not a bad gig inside an offense that has been one of the NFL's best at, you know, scoring points in recent years.

Verdict: I agree with Ferguson's TE9 positional rank in this updated ADP, but it seems at least a little bit wishful to see him priced so much closer to TE8 George Kittle (47.2) than TE10 David Njoku (62.8). I believe the latter TE and (especially) Dallas Goedert (TE11, 85.2) are better values.