The Arthur Smith-led Falcons went 7-10 in each of 2021, 2022 and 2023, never looking all that competitive along the way due in large part to their continuous hole under center.

Enter Kirk Cousins, who was paid a pretty penny to get this franchise back on the right track. After all, only the Jets (8), Commanders (7) and Broncos (7) have longer active streaks without a winning season than the Falcons (6). Things have been ROUGH in Atlanta for the better part of the last half-decade.

Of course, Cousins wasn't Atlanta's only roster move since the end of last season. A quick overview of all the Falcons' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

That latter continuity on the offensive front is vital when considering the potential for post-Achilles Kirk to perhaps not be as nimble as we're used to seeing.

Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

The major difference in Achilles recovery between Cousins and Aaron Rodgers comes down to the former QB's injury occurring on the throwing/power leg. Cousins (36 in August) could be looking at a recovery more similar to Dan Marino, who noted, “It was a very tedious rehab. It didn’t actually heal all the way, so I had to deal with not being able to get up on my toe for the rest of my career.”

Of course, Marino threw for 4,453 yards and 30 TD just one season removed from tearing said Achilles, and it’d make sense if modern medicine 30 (!) years in the future is a bit superior to what players were working with in the 90s.

Still: It’d also make sense if Cousins really has to work to get his usual throwing power back. It’s good news that he’s already throwing again, but multiple doctors have stated a decrease in arm strength is possible even while admitting that a Week 1 return is realistic.

Let’s face it: 2023’s high-end efficiency wasn’t exactly the norm for the veteran signal-caller since he arrived in Minnesota.

Cousins EPA per dropback and rank in Minnesota

  • 2018: -0.012 (No. 29 among qualified QBs)
  • 2019: +0.199 (No. 7)
  • 2020: +0.188 (No. 10)
  • 2021: +0.137 (No. 10)
  • 2022: +0.058 (No. 19)
  • 2023: +0.145 (No. 6)

Nobody is doubting Cousins' ability to play at a high level, but it's not like we're dealing with a consistent top-five QB here.

Luckily, the Falcons might just be good enough everywhere else to bring out the best of Captain Kirk. Overall, this group ranked first and ninth in "Supporting Cast Rating" over the past two seasons, as the presence of a top-tier offensive line and young playmakers makes this one of the better offensive environments out there.

Throw in the presence of offensive coordinator Zac Robinson who should run a similar system as fellow Sean McVay disciple and current Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell, and this does indeed profile as a fairly smooth transition for all parties involved ahead of 2024.

And then there's Michael Penix Jr., who might have had the single-best single-game performance of any QB in the 2024 draft cycle. His strengths and weaknesses actually profile somewhat similarly to Cousins in terms of his ability to dominate from the pocket but struggle under pressure. Penix's theoretical rushing upside gives him a higher best-case ceiling than Cousins in fantasy land; too bad we most likely won't get to see what the Washington product can do in live games until 2026.

Bottom line: Kirk probably shouldn't be expected to supply immediate top-10 fantasy production, but it's possible should he return from the Achilles injury at something close to 100%. At a minimum, he's right at home as a mid-tier QB2 alongside fellow veteran pocket passers like Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers, each of whom are some of the league's most passing-dependent QBs in terms of fantasy production.

Running Back

Robinson finished as the RB17 in PPR points per game as a rookie. This improves to RB14 status when accounting for the game where he handled just one touch while allegedly battling an illness. With 1,463 total yards, eight TDs and countless viral skycam highlights: Robinson's rookie season was filled with plenty of success … unless you were holding him to top-10 overall fantasy expectations.

This is where the "problems" arise. Robinson "only" handled 47.5% of the Falcons RB carries last season, as 2022 leading rusher Tyler Allgeier handled 204 touches on the year despite not being nearly as efficient as the team's shiny No. 7 overall pick.

The goal-line usage also left quite a bit to be desired. Life inside the league's 26th-ranked scoring offense only produced eight RB carries inside the five-yard line in the first place, but it was admittedly maddening to see those carries distributed so evenly between Allgeier (4), Robinson (2) and even the GOAT Cordarrelle Patterson (2). Hell, TE Jonnu Smith even registered a goal-line rush attempt one time.

Dec 10, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

While fantasy managers always want their RBs to handle each and every touch, Smith's insistence on keeping multiple parties involved was especially annoying because of the reality that Robinson sure looked like one of the league's better talents at the position throughout the season:

Robinson among 49 RBs with 100-plus carries in 2023:

  • Yards per carry: 4.5 (No. 14)
  • Yards over expected per carry: +0.39 (tied for No. 12)
  • Yards after contact per carry: 3.1 (No. 14)
  • % of carries with 2+ yards after contact: 71% (No. 4)
  • Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.24 (tied for No. 8)
  • Explosive run rate: 14% (No. 8)

Luckily for Bijan truthers: His relative lack of usage looks to be nearing an end. Just listen to new OC Zac Robinson:

“Bijan’s such a talented player. He’s gonna play running back, first and foremost — and then any way we can find creative ways to get him the ball like the Niners do with Christian McCaffrey is exactly right.”

And head coach Raheem Morris on his vision for Robinson:

"Get the ball to Bijan as much as you can, in as many ideal situations as you possibly can.

Here's to hoping that Robinson's new look usage doesn't take too much off his plate as a receiver. After all, targets trump carries in full-PPR scoring, and a whopping 52% of Robinson's fantasy production came through the air last season — tied for the fourth-highest mark among the top-36 RBs in PPR points per game.

Ultimately, the name of the game in fantasy land is volume, and Robinson projects for more than just about anyone else at the position.

Most combined carries and targets in Fantasy Life Projections:

Bottom line: Robinson's elite mix of talent and volume makes him a locked-in top-three option at the position deserving of first-round treatment in one-QB fantasy leagues of all shapes and sizes. Allgeier is more of a pure handcuff play, but an affordable one at his current RB48, pick 155.2 ADP. Still, I prefer guys like Ty Chandler, Ray Davis and Antonio Gibson in that range due to their similar handcuff upside and a heightened chance for standalone value.

Wide Receiver

Drake London is a certified baller who offers borderline erotic contested-catch ability in addition to nifty route-running nuance for a man standing 6-foot-4 and weighing 215 pounds. New head coach Raheem Morris was quick to name London when asked what stood out about this offense; there's little doubt the rising third-year stud will be the focal point of this passing attack.

Historically, Cousins' No. 1 WR has been quite prolific in fantasy land:

Cousins' top-two WRs in PPR points per game with the Vikings:

Now, we do have to make a bit of a leap of faith to assume London will join those (very good) WRs in fantasy WR1 land. Just the WR48 in PPR points per game over the past two seasons, London joins Garrett Wilson as the only two current top-12 WRs in ADP who failed to rack up even three PPR WR1 finishes last season. There's still at least a little concern surrounding London's separation ability considering his high contested catch rate and middling 32nd-place ranking in ESPN's Open Score.

Ultimately, London finds himself as one of just 11 WRs projected to see 135-plus targets this season — even pessimists will have a hard time dropping him too far down the ranks with a workload that big.

And then there's Darnell Mooney, who has posted mediocre 40-493-2 and 31-414-1 receiving lines over the past two seasons. That time he burnt Jalen Ramsey on a double move was cool and all; just realize his far more recent viral moment was kicking a would-be Hail Mary catch straight to the Browns defense.

Obviously, going from Justin Fields to Kirk Cousins is a solid upgrade, but there's also quite a bit of target competition here in the form of London and Kyle Pitts. And $39 million should guarantee Mooney a starting spot in two WR sets, although there really isn't much history of the 26-year-old veteran making all that much noise in fantasy land:

  • 2020: 9.5 PPR points per game (WR59)
  • 2021: 12.9 (WR29)
  • 2022: 8.5 (WR59)
  • 2023: 5.3 (WR88)

Perhaps a Week 2 knee injury limited Mooney more than anyone realized in 2023, but there weren't exactly endless examples of the 26-year-old veteran routinely breaking wide-open only to be missed by an inaccurate pass (other than against the Commanders' sad excuse for a secondary). Mooney's lowly 89th-place ranking in ESPN's Open Score helps quantify this reality.

The money here is indeed nice, but don't get it twisted: Plenty of high-priced WRs have gone on to dud in fantasy land upon joining a new team in free agency.

It's also tough to be overly optimistic about Moore. The pint-sized speedster has honestly flashed more as an RB than WR over the years; he never cleared 50 receiving yards in a 2023 game despite operating in a Cardinals offense desperate for anyone to emerge as a viable pass-catcher. It'd be surprising to see him finish any better than fifth on this offense in targets.

Bottom line: London's status as this passing game's clear-cut No. 1 WR makes him worthy of top-12 treatment at the position, even if the second-round valuation is admittedly a bit scary for someone with his lack of overall career production. Mooney (WR69, pick 148.7) should probably be priced a bit higher in the WR5 range, although he's a "better in best ball" boom-or-bust pick as opposed to someone you'll feel confident starting. Moore is only a last-round dart to include in lineups that already have Cousins rostered.

Tight End

Most advanced metrics would indicate that Jonnu Smith was better than Kyle Pitts last season. Of course, the caveat is that Pitts didn't ever seem to be fully healthy. Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot confirmed this in the offseason, who said Pitts "fought through" a lingering knee injury throughout 2023. Believed to be just an MCL issue, Pitts also had surgery on his PCL last offseason — there's reason to believe he will be far closer to 100% in 2024.

Sep 10, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (8) catches a pass against the Carolina Panthers in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

A look at Pitts' per-route efficiency and ability after the catch by season certainly seems to agree with the idea that we simply didn't see his best self last year.

Pitts yards per route run and yards after the catch per reception by year:

  • 2023: 1.43 yards per route run, 2.5 YAC per reception
  • 2022: 1.69, 4.8
  • 2021: 2.02, 4.7

We need to be careful about overly making excuses here. Some examples of just how rough the Pitts experience has been over the years:

  • Pitts has the worst targeted passer rating among 35 qualified TEs since 2021.
  • Jimmy Graham (7) has more TDs than Pitts (6) since 2021.
  • Zach Ertz has just one less missed tackle forced (4) than Pitts (5) on seven fewer receptions over the past two seasons.

Not good … but then again we are talking about someone who is still just 23 years old and already has a 1,000-yard campaign under their belt. We know that 6-foot-6, 245-pound beasts with sub-4.5 speed and the upside for triple-digit targets don't exactly fall off trees.

Ultimately, that latter point is probably the most important one. Pitts is one of just seven TEs that Fantasy Life projects for over 100 targets in 2024, meaning he'll need to continue posting poor efficiency and scoring numbers in order to not meet reasonable (for him) TE6, pick 61 ADP.

Bottom line: It sure seems like each of Pitts' 2023 downfalls in terms of injury, bad QB performance and legit target competition at TE have all been rectified. This doesn't make a year-four breakout guaranteed, but it's certainly easier to see his path to high-end success after a largely perfect offseason. Ultimately, I'm a believer in ELITE TE as a rather great strategy in 2024 drafts; Pitts deserves to be ranked inside the position's big top-seven options, although I do prefer Mark Andrews as long as they continue to be priced within 10 picks of each other.

Falcons 2024 Season Prediction

The Falcons' reigning 12th-ranked defense in EPA allowed per play didn't receive many investments during an offseason that was almost entirely focused on offense. Then again, this is the league's 11th-most expensive defense in terms of allocated 2024 dollars, so it probably wasn't overly necessary to pour more resources into the group. 

Ultimately, I'm more bullish on the Falcons' offseason improvements jump-starting their offense than necessarily leading to a massive turnaround in the win column — I'm taking under 9.5 wins largely due to the potential for the 2024 version of Cousins to resemble more of an average signal-caller than game-changer.

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