The 2023 Ravens captured the AFC's No. 1 seed on their way to achieving the league's single-best overall point differential (+203). Fourth in scoring offense and first in scoring defense: This was objectively one of the NFL's most well-rounded teams last season.

Of course, with great success often comes plenty of turnover, with players and coaches alike (understandably) often looking to cash in on newfound opportunities. A quick overview of all the Ravens' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

The latter note is probably the most important here. Starting RG Kevin Zeitler (Lions), LG John Simpson (Jets), and RT Morgan Moses (Jets) all have new homes, leaving Baltimore heavily reliant on *three* new and largely unproven starters up front.

Of course, having one of the best dual-threat QBs … ever … has a way of making life easier at the line of scrimmage.

Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Jackson's second MVP campaign featured top-eight marks in EPA per dropback (+0.135) and completion percentage over expected (+3.5%) alongside his usual goodness on the ground (148-821-5). The "RB" slander over the years has always been ridiculous; his big-time throw mixtape was up there with any signal-caller in the league last season.

Of course, it is the rushing upside at hand that continues to make Action Jackson a borderline god in fantasy land. A look at the percentage of each QB's fantasy performance to come through the air vs. on the ground reveals just that: Few signal-callers are more dependent on their legs to produce fantasy points than Jackson.

Good thing Jackson is, you know, on pace to be the most prolific rushing QB ever. His NFL-high career average of 61.1 rushing yards per game is nearly 20 yards better than second place (Mike Vick, 42.7), and now he's allegedly even more agile after shedding weight this offseason. While QBs do in fact run less as they get older, Jackson has never averaged fewer than nine rush attempts per game and once again looks like a safe bet to finish as one of the league's most productive players at the position on the ground.

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Jan 28, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Drue Tranquill (23) chases Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) in the AFC Championship football game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The only thing really holding back Jackson from serving as an even bigger fantasy cheat code is the offense's ongoing choice to not exactly feature him on the goal line. Overall, Jackson ranks "just" sixth in rush attempts inside the five-yard line (9) among all QBs over the past two seasons, well behind Jalen Hurts (36) and Josh Allen (25) as well as even Trevor Lawrence (10).

No QB in NFL history has scored more fantasy points per game than what Jackson managed in 2019 (27.7)—that's the ceiling here. Still, Jackson's QB8, QB9, QB6, and most recently QB3 finishes reflect the reality that he hasn't quite carried the same year-to-year floor as guys like Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, who are simply on another level in fantasy land due to their consistent goal line involvement.

Bottom line: It's tough to overly argue with Jackson's top-three standing at the position, although the associated fourth-round price tag is more challenging to get behind. Completely fading the reigning league MVP isn't advised, but at cost, I prefer Kyler Murray (QB8, pick 79 ADP) and Jayden Daniels (QB12, pick 104) in the dual-threat QB market.

Running Back

On the one hand, Father Time is undefeated, and Henry turned 30 in January. This is historically about when RBs cease to be overly dominant in fantasy.

On the other, there actually hasn't been much on-field evidence of Henry's ability falling off. Sure, his raw yards per carry have dipped, but a lot of that has to do with PFF's reigning 32nd-ranked offensive line struggling mightily in the trenches in recent years.

Titans rank in rush yards before contact per carry:

  • 2023: 0.9 (30th)
  • 2022: 1.0 (30th)
  • 2021: 1.3 (18th)
  • 2020: 1.5 (13th)

The Ravens’ rank during this span? First. This is a testament to Baltimore both:

  1. Typically doing a good job ensuring they’ve invested ample resources into their offensive line, and
  2. Lamar Jackson’s value in the run game. His gravity on read-option plays has helped Baltimore RBs average a robust 4.8 yards per carry over the past five years—the highest mark in the league.

Henry’s yards after contact per carry have stayed between 3.3 and 3.9 yards in each of the past four seasons—good for top-10 marks at the position every year along the way. His max speed per season tells a similar story: Don’t be so quick to dub Henry washed just because of his raw yards per carry numbers.

However, life in this Baltimore offense hasn't exactly been overly fantasy-friendly for RBs over the years. Ranking 29th and 20th in expected RB PPR points per game since 2022, the Ravens join the Eagles as two great examples of awesome real-life offenses that don't exactly offer pristine environments for their RBs due to dual-threat QBs: 1.) Eating into their offense's rushing pie, and 2.) Scrambling instead of checking down in the passing game.

Gus Edwards scored 13 TDs last season with the longest one going for … seven yards. Henry is a strong candidate to lead the league in rushing scores—Fantasy Life Projections accordingly have him tied with Christian McCaffrey in this very metric—but don't expect much of a PPR-friendly pass-game role alongside long-time pass-down specialist Justice Hill.

Look: Offensive coordinator Todd Monken is on the record stating he would love if Henry gets 300 carries. Still, he also noted they plan on “using all of our backs”—something that was readily apparent last season as the Ravens largely refrained from overly featuring one single back throughout the year.

Bottom line: There is next to no early-down competition here with Keaton Mitchell being far from guaranteed to make it back on the playing field anytime soon—Henry looks like a safe bet to (again) return RB1 production in standard and half-PPR formats, even if top-five heights are unlikely in full-PPR leagues due to the expected lack of pass-game opportunities at hand.

Wide Receiver

Flowers made a habit of making defenders look silly in the open field as a rookie. ESPN's 10th-highest-rated overall WR last season, the 2023 NFL Draft's No. 22 overall pick largely made the most out of his opportunities all season long—even if his ill-timed AFC Championship fumble certainly left a sour final taste in Ravens' fans mouths.

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Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers (4) runs the ball against the Houston Texans during the fourth quarter of a 2024 AFC divisional round game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, the rising second-year talent did benefit from the absence of Mark Andrews for much of 2023:

Flowers' per-game receiving splits with and without Andrews

  • With (9 games): 4.5 receptions, 51.9 yards, 0.1 TDs, 6.4 targets
  • Without (9): 5 receptions, 60.8 yards, 0.55 TDs, 7 targets

Not the most (Ned) stark splits in the world, and the newfound absence of Odell Beckham Jr. should lead to more downfield opportunities for Flowers in 2024.

Still, we have a solid half decade's worth of evidence at this point that Jackson hasn't exactly consistently done a great job enabling an overly fantasy-friendly WR1:

Top-scoring Ravens WR in PPR points per game:

  • 2019: Marquise Brown (10.5, WR48)
  • 2020: Brown (11.4, WR43)
  • 2021: Brown (14.1, WR23)
  • 2022: Devin Duvernay (8.3, WR61)
  • 2023: Flowers (12.9, WR31)

As we've seen in Kansas City during the post-Tyreek era: It's tough for WRs to post consistent high-end fantasy numbers in an offense that features a TE as the de facto No. 1 pass-game option. Kudos to offensive coordinator Todd Monken on his ability to enhance the pass-game efficiency during his first year in Baltimore; just realize Ravens WRs still ranked just 23rd in targets and 22nd in expected WR PPR points per game in 2023.

That said: Flowers currently boasts an affordable WR25 ADP over at Underdog Fantasy and doesn't profile as someone who will be overly expensive in drafts. It'd be a lot cooler if a talent of his caliber had a higher target ceiling—Fantasy Life Projections currently have Zay getting 118 looks this season—but this is at least somewhat mitigated by expected higher-end efficiency as well as more rushing work than a typical player at the position.

As for the rest of this group:

  • Bateman: Started to flash as a route-runner down the stretch of last season even if the production never quite came along. There's a low floor here—Bateman had more than 40 yards in a game just once in 2023—but the Ravens' decision to let OBJ walk and to give their former first-round pick a two-year, $15.25 million extension should lead to more opportunity in 2024 should the injury gods chill the hell out for once.
  • Agholor: Unironically out-scored Bateman last season in this very offense. While his contract extension (1-year, $3.75 million) pales in comparison to what the former receiver got, Agholor does once again profile as a starter in three-WR sets and remains capable of working as the offense's No. 2 WR during any given week.  
  • Walker: The Kent State/North Carolina product has intriguing speed (4.36-second 40-yard dash) and deserves credit for posting solid career numbers in both targeted passer rating (121) and total TDs per game (0.71). He's an early candidate for some designed downfield shot plays, even if an early-season full-time starting role seems unlikely.
  • Harty: REALLY flashed during his time with the Saints before largely "just" coming through with a 96-yard punt return TD in the Bills' division-clinching Week 18 win over the Dolphins last season. Essentially a replacement for Devin Duvernay, Harty looks the part of a gadget/return specialist as opposed to someone who should be expected to see much consistent work on offense.

Bottom line: Flowers is obviously the No. 1 WR here and someone I'm targeting at his WR3 price tag in fantasy land. Don't expect top-12 heights, but triple-digit targets should go a long way for a player of his caliber. I'm also not against throwing a late-round dart or two at Bateman—he's priced as just the WR75 (pick 166.5) after all—but history tells us not to get too carried away when projecting Ravens WRs.

Tight End

An unfortunate hip-drop tackle sidelined Andrews for the second half of 2023, but that didn't stop the 28-year-old veteran from (again) putting up elite per-game numbers in fantasy land.

Andrews' PPR points per game:

  • 2019: 13.8 (TE5)
  • 2020: 12.2 (TE4)
  • 2021: 17.7 (TE1)
  • 2022: 12.7 (TE3)
  • 2023: 13.5 (TE5)

No TE earned a better "open score" than Andrews last season, and the longtime stud's average of 4.8 yards after the catch per reception was his highest mark since his rookie season. There's little reason to believe Andrews is poised to suffer a falloff in physical ability ahead of 2024—especially considering how much better veteran TEs have performed relative to other positions over the years.

The biggest potential concern would be the rise of Likely, who turned in PPR TE3, TE5, TE21, TE3, and TE9 performances during the final five weeks of 2023. Still, Andrews ran a route on an elite 85% of the Ravens' dropbacks last season—Baltimore continues to have 56 million reasons to feature their regular No. 1 pass-game option whenever he's healthy enough to suit up.

Nov 16, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) runs after a catch during the first quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

That said: Don't discount Likely's potential to (again) provide some booms should Andrews miss any time. The rising third-year talent is truly good at football; just realize Likely gained more than 20 yards just once in 10 games with Mark healthy last season.

Bottom line: Andrews always has overall TE1 upside—something that doesn't seem to be properly baked into his rather affordable TE5, pick 50.8 ADP at the moment. He's my go-to early-round TE at this price, while Likely (again) boasts some solid contingency value at the very end of drafts.

Ravens 2024 Season Prediction

Losing defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald isn't ideal, but the defense isn't expected to change much under the tutelage of incumbent linebackers coach/new DC Zach Orr. The overall talent level remains sky-high regardless—even a step back on offense isn't the end of the world when it remains a serious chore to crack 20 points against this group.

That said: 11.5 wins is hardly an easy over to reach. Only the Chiefs and 49ers also have a win total this high. While there's little reason to expect a major falloff here, I'm taking the under ahead of a season that will feature a first-place schedule in the ever-competitive AFC North—Baltimore has finished under this mark in 10 of the last 12 seasons after all.

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