Week 3 is officially in the books, and we’re starting Week 4 with a classic NFC North showdown. The Lions will travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers in a game that could have serious playoff implications.

Both of these teams are 2-1 on the year, and they’re considered the frontrunners in the division. The Lions are currently priced at -105 to win the North on BetMGM, while the Packers are +160.

This will be an opportunity for the Packers to extract a bit of revenge after the Lions kept them out of the postseason in 2022. All Green Bay needed to do was win in the final week of the season, but they ultimately couldn’t get the job done.

It was only the third time the Packers missed the postseason in the previous 13 years, while the Lions will be looking to return to the playoffs for the first time in six seasons.

Who can grab the early division lead with a win on Thursday? Let’s dive in.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

  • Spread: Lions -1.5 (-110; BetMGM)
  • Total: 45.5
  • Moneylines: Lions -125/Packers +105

This line has seen a bit of movement throughout the week, oscillating somewhere between Lions -2.0 and Lions -1.0. It’s currently settled at Lions -1.5, but the final number will likely be inconsequential.

When the spread is this small, there’s a very good chance that the team that wins the game will ultimately cover: less than 8% of NFL games from 2003 to 2020 were decided by less than a field goal.

With that in mind, this game is less about the spread and more about which team we think can emerge victorious.

I am a firm believer that the Lions are the superior squad.

Offensively, the Lions were a really good team last season. They were fourth in yards per game and fifth in points, and they’re off to another strong start this season. Their scoring is down a bit, but they’ve racked up the eighth-most yardage through the first three weeks.

Jared Goff continues to impress as the Lions’ starting quarterback. He ranks sixth among signal-callers in EPA + CPOE composite, trailing only Tua Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes. That’s pretty elite company.

Jared Goff

Jan 9, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) waits in the tunnel before the game against the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Additionally, the Lions’ defense seems improved in 2023. The team made improving the secondary a priority during the offseason, and it’s paid dividends to start the year. They’re 13th in EPA/play allowed after ranking 31st in that department last year.

On the other side, it’s hard to get a good read on the Packers.

Even though they’re 2-1, it’s hard to classify what they’ve done as impressive. They put together a monster showing vs. the Bears, but everyone has lit up the Bears so far this season. They followed that up with just 224 total yards vs. the Falcons, and they ultimately trailed the Saints by 17 points in the fourth quarter before engineering an improbable comeback. The fact that Derek Carr left that game with an injury certainly didn’t hurt.

Overall, the Packers’ offense is eighth in points per game but just 22nd in yardage. That kind of discrepancy suggests some potential regression coming in the future.

Defensively, the Packers have been about as good as the Lions this season. They’re 14th in EPA/play allowed, albeit against a much softer schedule. While the Lions have had dates with the Chiefs and Seahawks, the Packers have had to deal with the Falcons, Bears, and Saints. None of those teams currently ranks in the top half of the league in EPA/play.

The big x-factor here is the injury report. The Packers were without a host of key players in Week 3: David Bakhtiari, Jaire Alexander, Christian Watson, and Aaron Jones.

Alexander, Watson, and Jones all got in limited practices on Tuesday, so it’s possible that they return to the lineup vs. Detroit. However, Bakhtiari picked up a DNP, so his status is a bit less rosy.

The Lions also have plenty of injury issues, but their practice report looks a lot more promising. Only three players were DNPs on Tuesday, and one of them was a fullback. If running backs don’t matter, I have a hard time believing that fullbacks do.

Add it all up, and I think the Lions are the correct side here.

Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry. There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing using the tool for this matchup.

One of the largest edges is on Jordan Love under 1.5 passing touchdowns, which is currently available at -130 on PointsBet.

Love has been pretty efficient to start his tenure as the Packers’ new franchise QB. He’s racked up seven touchdown passes to just one interception, and he’s averaged 7.8 adjusted yards per attempt.

That said, his current touchdown rate is 7.3%. That’s an insanely high figure that he has almost no chance of continuing throughout the year. To put that in perspective, Mahomes and Tagovailoa led the league with a mark of 6.3% last year, while Aaron Rodgers was at 7.0% during his MVP campaign in 2021. Love clearly isn’t in the same category as those players, so some regression is coming.

We’re also showing some value on Amon-Ra St. Brown over 6.5 receptions. That’s a pretty hefty receptions prop, but it is juiced +105 to the over on DraftKings. That means we only need this prop to hit around 50% of the time to be profitable.

ARSB has had insane utilization since breaking out during his rookie season. He led the league in targets per route run (TPRR) among high-volume receivers in 2022, and he’s at 29% so far in 2023. That includes an 11-target, nine-catch performance last week vs. the Falcons.

We currently have ARSB projected for nearly 7.8 receptions in our Prop Tool, so this number might actually be too low.

Same-Game Parlay

As usual, we’re going to attempt to build a correlated same-game parlay for this matchup. That means that if one part of our bet hits, it increases the odds that the other parts hit as well.

We finally got on the board with our correlated SGP on Sunday Night Football, with the Steelers, Kenny Pickett, Calvin Austin III, and Josh Jacobs all playing their roles.

I obviously like the Lions here, so Lions -1.5 is a natural place to start our wager. After that, adding an over on St. Brown also correlates well with a Lions’ win.

Adding an over on Sam LaPorta also makes sense. While ARSB is the clear alpha in the Lions’ passing attack, LaPorta is a solid No. 2. He has an excellent 23% target share through the first three weeks, and he’s route participation has increased over the past two.

Since we’re taking overs on St. Brown and LaPorta, it only makes sense to add one on Goff. It’d be pretty hard for both of those players to get there without their quarterback doing so as well.

Unfortunately, we can’t add in any Love unders yet – they’re not currently available at the time of writing – but we can add the under on the Packers’ team total. That’s essentially accomplishing the same thing as the under on Love’s touchdown prop.

Add it all up, and you get something like this:

SGP Bet Slip

You could always get a bit more aggressive with the receiving or passing props, but this feels pretty achievable in a Lions’ win.

You can tail the SGP at BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to take advantage of their First Bet Offer and start betting TODAY!

Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!

Lions vs Packers TNF