No one wants to be wrong. No one wants to look stupid.
But fortune favors the bold, or so I’m told.
Today, I’m grabbing my flamethrower and firing off some hot takes for the 2024 NFL Draft. Here are five bold predictions that will happen during the draft in just a few short weeks…
Eight WRs are drafted in Round 1
If there’s one thing that everyone seems to agree on with in this draft, it's that the 2024 NFL Draft will feature one of the best WR classes we’ve seen in a long, long time.
Not only are there three elite WR prospects projected in the top 10 overall picks – Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze – but there are then another 10 or so WRs expected to be drafted in Round 1 or 2.
The depth at the WR position in the 2024 rookie class could lead to one of two outcomes. The first is that NFL teams will say, “we don’t need to spend a mid to late first-round pick on the No. 4 or No. 5 WR in this class when we can draft a comparable WR talent in Round 2”.
Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Washington Huskies wide receiver Rome Odunze (1) is unable to make a catch against the Michigan Wolverines during the third quarter in the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The other possibility, though, is that a couple of teams will get an itchy trigger finger in the middle of Round 1, which then leads to the floodgates opening for a string of WRs to be drafted in succession in Round 1.
Because I’m an optimist and unabashed lover of WRs, I’m betting on the latter scenario to occur. Most prop markets have the line set at 6.5 WRs being drafted in Round 1. In fact, in his updated NFL mock draft, our very own Matthew Freedman projects only six first-round WRs this year.
However, neither the betting markets nor Mr. Freedman have fully accounted for the WR avalanche that I’m projecting for in this draft. And trust me, I have plenty of experience with WR avalanches.
Xavier Worthy is drafted in the top 20 overall
The earthquake that will trigger the aforementioned WR avalanche will be Texas speedster Xavier Worthy going in the top 20 overall picks, much earlier than anyone expects.
Worthy is a polarizing prospect. A lot of draft evaluators have given him a Day 2 grade, but virtually every mock draft you’ll read will slot him to the Bills or the Chiefs at the end of the Round 1.
My hot take is that Worthy won't even make it to Buffalo or Kansas city in the late first round. He's fast but also isn’t just a one-trick pony. After all, Worthy had an absurdly productive rookie year where he showed that he can earn targets.
Texas Longhorns wide receiver Xavier Worthy (1) runs the ball during the Sugar Bowl College Football Playoff semifinals game against the Washington Huskies at the Caesars Superdome on Monday, Jan. 1, 2024 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photo Credit: Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK
Whether it’s a team like the Jaguars at pick No. 17 or the Steelers at pick No. 20 (or even a team like the Bears if they were to trade down from pick No. 9 to the mid-first round) Worthy is going to shock everyone with how early he's drafted (and immediately get way more expensive in Underdog Fantasy best ball drafts).
And when that happens, teams like the Bills and Chiefs who may have been banking on him falling to them are going to have to scramble to land their consolation prize at WR. Ultimately, it's not that crazy to think that this 2024 NFL Draft could break the record set in 2004 of seven rookie WRs selected in Round 1.
Belichick upstages the NFL Draft with a big announcement
Let’s start with a simple premise: Bill Belichick is seething mad right now, and he has been ever since he was shoved out the door in Foxborough. He shuffles around his New England home muttering obscenities about Robert Kraft, Mac Jones, and that kid Edward Smigs who pantsed him on the monkey bars in the sixth grade.
In fact, Belichick is even steaming mad that organizations like the Falcons wouldn’t give him the keys to the castle and that he’s been discarded by the league he's dominated for multiple decades.
And now, Belichick has pouted his way to the dreary Pacific Northwest for the perfect environment to be depressed and protest the NFL by wearing college swag.
Jan 11, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots former head coach Bill Belichick holds a press conference at Gillette Stadium to announce his exit from the team. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
And you also know that Belichick almost certainly saw the move that John Calipari pulled on Monday night, announcing his departure from Kentucky for Arkansas on the eve of the NCAA title game.
As a result, it wouldn't be too shocking if Belichick were plotting a big announcement for the night of the NFL Draft to upstage the event. What might that announcement be? Here are a few guesses:
- A celebrity boxing match with Tom Brady (c'mon, you know the weigh-in alone would shatter viewership records)
- A line of sleeveless onesies (“We’ll cut ‘em off for you!”)
- A multi-million dollar deal with Garmin to be the voice on your GPS (“We’re onto I-95”)
- A full-length emo album (Draft Board Confessional)
The Patriots go rogue (and dumb)
Speaking of Belichick, you just know that his former team, the Patriots, are going to mess up their third overall pick.
New England's mission at pick No. 3 should be very simple: draft whoever remains between Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye and bask in the glow of having landed a potential franchise QB. In reality, the breadcrumbs are there that the Patriots will galaxy brain this decision so hard.
Whether it’s going way off the board and reaching for J.J. McCarthy or punting QB to another year so they can “build up their roster before selecting a QB like the Texans,” the Patriots so badly want to mess this up.
The Patriots crave dysfunctionality. They feel ecstasy torching picks on WRs they barely evaluated. They live for chaos.
Feb 27, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; New England Patriots director of scouting Eliot Wolf during the NFL Scouting Combine at Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
My exact prediction is that New England will trade down from pick No. 3. With the picks acquired in that trade, the Patriots will then draft OT Joe Alt (remember when people wanted the Bengals to take Penei Sewell over Ja’Marr Chase? lol) and later WR Ladd McConkey with their haul.
The streets of New England would be rapturous. I can hear the chants from One Patriot Place already…
“Joe Alt will protect Jacoby Brissett's blind side til death! Ladd McConkey is ahhh generation's Wes Welkahhh!”
It's going to happen.
The NFL goes zero RB (no RBs in Round 1 or 2)
Let’s end on a buzzkill. This 2024 rookie RB class is the inverse of this year's WR class. There are no high-end RB superstars and very little depth.
Luckily, there are a couple of dream RB landing spots to get excited about, but I fear that we're collectively going to have to wait a loooong time to hear a RB’s name called from the podium.
Right now, there are only two RBs even projected to go in the top 60 picks, Jonathan Brooks and Trey Benson. Would it really be all that surprising if both of these rookie RBs slipped a few spots past the top 64 picks and fell to Round 3?
Everyone has already penciled in Blake Corum to the Chargers and Brooks to the Cowboys (people do forget about this connection), but I think that we might be disappointed.
The Chargers have so many more pressing needs than RB, and plus, Brooks is coming off an ACL tear. On top of that, all the 2024 RB prospects have question marks, and so many NFL teams have already signaled how they feel about this RB class with some big contracts to veteran RBs during free agency.
The latest that the first rookie RB has ever come off the board in an NFL Draft was Bishop Sankey back in 2014, who was drafted 54th overall by the Titans exactly a decade ago. And the 2014 rookie class was oddly similar to this year's – a talented, deep WR class along with a very weak RB class.
Sadly, 2024 could be the year Sankey's record is broken with no rookie RB selected until Round 3.
