The Bills have won double-digit games in five consecutive seasons after failing to do so in 19 (!) consecutive years to start the new millennium. Sadly, the Chiefs (x3) and Bengals (x1) have sent Josh Allen and company to Cancun during the last four Januarys, prohibiting Bills Mafia from making it to their first Super Bowl since the 1993-94 season.

As is the case with most successful teams: It becomes more and more expensive to keep the band together over an extended period of time, meaning the 2024 edition of this Buffalo squad will look quite a bit different than what we're used to seeing.

A quick overview of the Bills' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

Good news, Bills Mafia: You still have one of the game's single-best talents starting under center. Let's dive into the Buffalo Bills fantasy football outlook for 2024.

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

Death, taxes: Allen putting up big-time fantasy numbers.

  • 2020: 24.7 fantasy points per game (QB2 among all QBs with 8-plus starts)
  • 2021: 23.7 (QB1)
  • 2022: 24.7 (QB2)
  • 2023: 23.1 (QB1)

Overall, Allen (22.2) only trails Patrick Mahomes (22.4) in career fantasy points per game among all QBs to start at least 16 games … ever. Not bad for the same guy who never managed to post a completion rate north of 60% from 2011 to 2019.

Of course, those four magnificent campaigns came alongside former No. 1 WR Stefon Diggs. This has generally been one of the league's stronger supporting casts; it's far from guaranteed that Allen's typical high-end passing prowess will continue without a hitch into 2024.

That said, the rushing production on hand is why fantasy investors shouldn't be overly concerned with a potential dropoff through the air. They simply don't make many (any?) QBs like Allen these days:

The TD stat, in particular, is wild, but not ALL that surprising considering the goal-line usage at hand. Consider: Hurts (16) and Allen (14) led all QBs in rush attempts inside the five-yard line — the next-closest signal-callers only had FIVE.

And, hell, the presence of Joe Brady at offensive coordinator only made life more fantasy-friendly on the ground for Allen: The Bills' franchise QB  averaged 4.8 rush attempts and 24.6 yards per game during the first 10 games of last season before nearly doubling his output in both carries (9.2) and yards (47.1) during his final nine games of the year after Brady took over for Ken Dorsey.

This isn't to discount the possibility of Allen keeping on keeping on as a passer; the man ranks fourth in EPA per dropback (+0.215) and fifth in completion percentage over expected (+3.6%) since 2020 for a reason. Either way, the utility gained from rushing supersedes even a drastic downgrade in passing production. If Allen threw for 3,500 yards instead of 4,306 last season he would have finished as … the QB1.

Bottom line: Allen is one of the most fantasy-friendly assets the game has ever seen and continues to warrant top overall treatment at the position. I'm a fan of acquiring him in Round 3 when roughly the top-20 WRs and top-10 RBs are already off the board.

Running Back

On the one hand, Cook put up some pretty damn impressive rushing numbers last season on the ground.

Cook among 49 qualified RBs:

  • PFF rushing grade: 79.3 (No. 17)
  • Yards per carry: 4.7 (No. 8)
  • Yards over expected per carry: +0.45 (tied for No. 9)
  • Yards after contact per carry: 2.8 (tied for No. 33)
  • Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.16 (tied for No. 32)
  • Explosive run play rate: 13.9% (No. 9)

On the other, he only faced eight-plus defenders in the box on 10.1% of his carries — the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL. The Bills also didn't trust him on the goal line, as Allen (14) and Latavius Murray (11) easily out-rushed Cook (4) inside the five-yard line.

We face a similar predicament when looking at Cook's receiving ability. His overall numbers (44-445-4) were really good! Only Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Rachaad White, Bijan Robinson and Alvin Kamara actually scored more PPR points from purely receiving production than Cook last year!

And yet, the man dropped not one, not two, not three, but four likely TDs last season. I generally don't like to overly hold a few drops against anyone, but SHEESH people. It's accordingly not too surprising to see the likes of PFF (39 out of 49 in receiving grade) and ESPN (22/49 in overall receiving rating) agree that Cook isn't exactly an elite receiving threat.

Jan 7, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) looks for running room against the Miami Dolphins defense during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Less we forget head coach Sean McDermott was annoyed enough at Cook's ball security problems (four fumbles) to bench the man for a prolonged stretch of the team's Week 10 loss to the Broncos. It was good to see the rising third-year talent rally and enjoy a breakout of sorts in Weeks 11 to 15, but even then: Ty Johnson (27% snaps) and Latavius Murray (18%) continued to limit Cook's (51%) every-down upside the last time we saw the Bills suit up against the Chiefs.

Looking ahead to specifically 2024:

  • Good news for Cook: He's fully expected to remain the team's lead back after Buffalo declined to use a Day 1 or 2 pick on the position, and Murray remains an unrestricted free agent.
  • Bad news for Cook: The Day 3 RB they drafted (Ray Davis) was one of college football's more productive receivers over the last two seasons and objectively possesses superior size in terms of weight (211 pounds vs. 199) and especially BMI (88th percentile vs. 10th).

Cook's path to success revolves around him 1.) Holding on to the clear No. 1 RB job, and 2.) Brady continuing to run the ball at a near-league-high clip. Both are plenty possible; he did rack up 21, 23, 15, 28, 20, 19, 17, 22 and 23 combined carries and targets in nine games with Brady calling the shots after all.

Still, Cook is no longer a fun later-mid-round option — he's already on the RB1 borderline (RB13, pick 50.1 ADP) and someone that will cost a top-five-round pick to acquire in more drafts than not.

Bottom line: Aside from pure yards per carry potential, I fail to see an overly good reason why Cook should be drafted ahead of fellow Round 4-5 RBs like Travis Etienne, Isiah Pacheco and Joe Mixon, who seem to have far more secure workhorse roles in also good offenses without a QB that could lead the NFL in rushing TDs. Don't hate the player, hate the ADP, and I REALLY struggle to see why Cook is going 30-plus picks ahead of guys like D'Andre Swift and James Conner. Meanwhile, Davis profiles as one of fantasy's better handcuff options at cost due to his theoretical three-down ability; he joins Jaylen Wright and Kimani Vidal as the Day 3 backs most likely to make an immediate impact in their new homes.

Wide Receiver

One of the biggest questions of the offseason is what the pecking order will be here — because all of the involved options certainly project to be pretty damn affordable for a passing game that has produced the ninth-most yards and third-most TDs through the air over the past three seasons. Overall, no offense boasts more available WR targets and air yards after Stefon Diggs was traded to the Texans and Gabe Davis took his talents to Jacksonville in free agency.

A quick rundown of our top three candidates:

  • WR Keon Coleman: Bills general manager Brandon Beane has already stated, "Josh Allen knows we ... are going to be counting on Keon Coleman early." The 2024 NFL Draft's No. 33 overall pick provides Allen with arguably the most lethal contested-catch artist of his short career; there's double-digit TD upside here.
  • WR Khalil Shakir: Somehow managed more receiving yards than Diggs (462 vs. 422) during the Bills' final 10 games of 2023 on less than half the targets (80 vs. 37). Don't expect the rising third-year WR to average 13.6 yards per target again, but volume-based WR3 upside is possible (particularly in full-PPR formats).
  • WR Curtis Samuel: His three-year, $24 million deal includes $15 million guaranteed, likely locking Samuel into three-WR sets for the next few years. The ex-Panthers and Commanders talent possesses dual-threat ability at WR and RB and an intriguing blend of field-stretching and YAC ability. Samuel posted solid production as both a receiver (77-851-3) and rusher (41-200-2) with Brady as his OC back in 2020.

Throw in the run-first nature of things down the stretch of 2023, and it's far from a guarantee that any of these WRs emerge as the sort of weekly upside WR2 that you'll really feel good about consistently plugging into your starting fantasy lineup. It'd make sense if Buffalo takes a page out of the recent Kansas City winner's manual and embraces more of a spread-out approach; Cook and TE Dalton Kincaid (more on him in a bit) also figure to heavily factor into this passing attack.

Not sold? Well, Fantasy Life Projections still have Allen as 2024's highest-scoring QB despite lower-than-usual production in passing yards (4,067) and TDs (28.8). Here's how Fantasy Life's projection master Dwain McFarland has the WR pecking order going down in terms of targets and fantasy points (pre-MVS signing):

  • Coleman: 97 targets, PPR WR45
  • Shakir: 86 targets, WR51
  • Samuel: 84 targets, WR55

Breaking news: WR4-5 types hardly offer assurances of elite target shares inside great offenses; there's a reason why they're as cheap as they are. Still, it's probably best to look at the No. 1 WR in Buffalo as more of the No. 2 pass-game option overall due to the team's stud rising second-year TE.

Bottom line: All three WRs are solid enough investments at their affordable WR4-5 ADP, but don't expect any to assume Diggs' 150-plus target role. I'll be placing my chip on Coleman out of the group; even then he's a "better in best ball" option due to the potential for growing pains and/or Gabe Davis-esque boom-or-bust production as the team's likely field-stretching option. The most likely answer to which Bills WR emerges as a consistent top-24 option is probably: No.

Tight End

Yes, Kincaid's targets per game with Dawson Knox healthy (7.4) were a far cry from what he pulled off in five games without (5). There was a dropoff in production when both were healthy together.

Also yes, Kincaid ran 41 routes without Diggs on the field (essentially one game) as a rookie and caught nine of 12 targets for 139 yards (per CBS Fantasy's Jacob Gibbs). The (small sample) target share numbers are borderline erotic.

The continued presence of Knox doesn't make this the world's cleanest projection, but then again Kincaid still posted a fine enough 71% route rate after Kincaid returned from injury in Week 14 — an uptick from the 67% mark he posted during the first seven weeks of the season with the veteran healthy.

Nov 19, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) runs with the ball after making a catch against the New York Jets during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

There isn't much doubt that Kincaid is a great football player. His receiving usage was rare for a rookie; it's no wonder he was ESPN's sixth-best TE in overall receiver rating. Overall, the 25th overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft is fresh off one of the top five most productive rookie campaigns that the position has seen in a decade:

It's hard to be overly bearish on Kincaid's situation: He's an ascending second-year talent playing alongside one of the game's best QBs in an offense largely depleted of high-end target competition. Overall, Kincaid joins Trey McBride, Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta and Evan Engram as Fantasy Life's only five TEs projected to surpass 105 targets in 2024.

Bottom line: Kincaid is deserving of top-five treatment at the position and should be considered a dark horse for an overall TE1 finish. He's a quality Round 5 pick generally available during prolonged RB/WR tiers — an area of the draft where I'm OK taking a potential game-changer at the position, even if I currently prefer Mark Andrews a bit more at cost.

Bills 2024 Season Prediction

While this series is mostly focusing on the fantasy-relevant side of things, the Bills' aging secondary and lack of pass-rush juice is concerning when considering how they might respond to a less-potent offensive attack than usual. Maybe Allen really is good enough to simply put the team on his back like a prime Greg Jennings, but he'll in all likelihood have to do so while surrounded with the team's least-talented roster since probably 2019.

Throw in a first-place schedule in an AFC East that (should) be more competitive than usual depending on how Aaron Rodgers' Achilles is feeling, and I will be taking under 10.5 wins even if it's terrifying to bet against the second-best QB alive.

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