Fantasy football trades can make or break friendships just as easily as they can swing the balance of power in leagues of all shapes and sizes.
Today’s goal: Determine the best buy-low and sell-high candidates after five weeks of action.
As always, it’s a great day to be great.
BUY LOW: Dameon Pierce, RB - Texans
Pierce looked like he was potentially stuck in a committee to start the season, but the second-year talent has slowly but surely seen his utilization come along STRONG over the past two weeks.
The bigger reasons why Pierce has worked as just the RB32 in PPR points per game come down to the reality that Houston has had more offensive line injuries than anyone and accordingly has been one of the league’s worst units up front in run blocking.
Just seven teams have averaged less than 1.0 rush yards before contact per carry this season:
- Texans (0.84)
- Jaguars (0.84)
- Packers (0.80)
- Titans (0.76)
- Browns (0.76)
- Steelers (0.72)
- Buccaneers (0.62)
Overall, Pierce’s -20.8 PPR points below expectation trail only Tony Pollard (-21.6) and Josh Jacob (-27.7). This is a sign that either Pierce isn’t very good at football … or that his teammates haven’t helped him fully capitalize on his fantasy-friendly workload.
I lean toward the latter reasoning. There have still been plenty of flashes of Pierce looking lethal in the open field.
Of course, trading for Pierce before his tough matchup against the Saints in Week 6 and Week 7 bye might not be doable for fantasy managers already in do-or-die mode after a rough start; just realize that amount of time should allow this offensive line to continue to get healthier and mark the start of what sure looks to be a smashable seven-week stretch:
- Week 8 at Panthers: No. 31 in PPR points per game allowed to RBs
- Week 9 vs. Buccaneers: No. 15
- Week 10 at Bengals: No. 16
- Week 11 vs. Cardinals: No. 29
- Week 12 vs. Jaguars: No. 10
- Week 13 vs. Broncos: No. 32
- Week 14 at Jets: No. 24
This stretch more than makes up for two fantasy playoff matchups with the Titans’ vaunted run defense (when they aren’t playing Zack Moss).
Those matchups certainly aren’t ideal, but beggars can’t be choosers, and it’s also not a given that Mike Vrabel and company will have a ton to play for by the time late December comes around.
Recent Yahoo trades have seen Pierce acquired for guys like Jerome Ford, Gabriel Davis, Sam LaPorta and Amari Cooper to give a slight gauge to the current market rate. I like the idea of buying into the bell-cow back of a suddenly ascending Texans offensive attack.
BUY LOW: Joe Mixon, RB - Bengals
Mixon has worked as virtually the same guy in 2023 that he was in 2022 on the ground:
- Yards per carry: 2022: 3.9. 2023: 3.9
- Yards after contact per carry: 2022: 2.6. 2023: 2.4
- Missed tackles forced per carry: 2022: 0.11. 2023: 0.13
Those are all not great numbers! But guess what? Mixon turned in a RB6 finish in PPR points per game last season while ranking as the RB2 in expected PPR points per game with those numbers.
Even if you want to be one of “those people” who like to remove a player’s best game and only focus on the bad, Mixon still would have finished as the RB12 on a per-game basis without his five-TD performance in 2022.
While Mixon is “just” the RB11 in expected PPR points per game this season, this could be on the verge of changing in a hurry considering just how much healthier Joe Burrow (calf) looked in Week 5.
After all, operating as the workhorse RB in the league’s seventh-ranked scoring offense (2022) is quite a bit different from the 27th-ranked scoring offense (2023).
The workhorse RB part of that equation is the important piece here: Mixon is one of just seven RBs with a snap rate of at least 75% this season:
Recent Yahoo trades involving Mixon have seen him get got for guys like Deandre Hopkins, Najee Harris and Jordan Addison.
I’m a fan of the Mixon side in all three of these deals due to the reality that his usage numbers are as good as anyone inside of an offense that (finally) appears to be ascending back to the sort of heights we thought were assuredly on the table just a short five weeks ago.
BUY LOW: Chris Olave, WR - Saints
Only five WRs have racked up over 500 air yards through five weeks of action:
- Davante Adams (569)
- Justin Jefferson (565)
- Tyreek Hill (548)
- A.J. Brown (536)
- Olave (536)
Of course, Olave’s mere 306 receiving yards pale in comparison to the totals put forward by those other four receivers, and he’s only caught one TD despite being oh so close to reigning in this 30-yard score last week.
Overall, Olave’s -16.2 PPR points below expectation are good for the fourth-lowest mark among all WRs.
Oct 8, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) can t control the ball as he crosses the end zone during the second half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
We now need to once again ask the question: Is Olave bad, or is his relatively slow start more so because of other factors that have a chance to improve in future weeks?
I’m leaning heavily toward the latter scenario here.
Last week’s 2-12-1 receiving line was certainly not what managers had in mind when they used a second- or third-round pick on Olave a month or two ago, but we did end the game with two key health updates:
- Pregame speculation that Olave suffered an ankle injury of sorts didn’t impact his playing time at all, as the second-year talent ran a route on literally 100% of the offense’s dropbacks despite the blowout nature of the game.
- Derek Carr looked far healthier in his second game since injuring his right shoulder, earning PFF’s seventh-highest grade of the week while vastly improving both his average target depth (7.4 vs. 9.5) and yards per attempt (3.4 vs. 7) relative to last week.
This week’s matchup with the Texans (No. 4 in fewest PPR points per game allowed to opposing WRs) isn’t ideal, but after that, Olave gets the Jaguars (No. 22), Colts (No. 24), Bears (No. 18) and Vikings (No. 31) before the team’s Week 11 bye. Sign. Me. Up.
Yahoo trades featuring Olave have included him being swapped for guys like Jordan Addison, Alvin Kamara and Zack Moss (!?) among others.
This might be our last chance to be able to obtain one of the position’s more talented young stars at something resembling a reduced cost.
SELL HIGH: DeAndre Hopkins, WR - Titans
The 31-year-old longtime stud is coming off season-best marks in receptions (8) and yards (140). While Hopkins still hasn’t found the end zone this season, he’s literally been inches away in back-to-back weeks on near-miss trick play targets.
Currently averaging a career-high 2.54 yards per route run, Hopkins looks far from washed out there and could certainly build off last week’s PPR WR8 finish.
The concern here more so comes down to the reality that:
- Hopkins has benefited from No. 2 WR Treylon Burks (knee) missing early-season time.
- We are one injury under center away from likely getting the Malik Willis experience.
Perhaps you, a scholar, are thinking, “Ian, this is obvious, nobody in my league wants to trade for Hopkins.” And I hear you — but look at these very real trades that have involved him recently in Yahoo fantasy leagues on Tuesday alone:
- Hopkins for Tua Tagovailoa
- Hopkins for Joe Mixon
- Hopkins and Isiah Pacheco for Austin Ekeler
- Hopkins and Drake London for Chris Olave
The Mixon and Ekeler deals in particular look like easy money. Don’t be afraid to at least take advantage of some moderate good vibes surrounding Hopkins at the moment by praying on your WR-hungry leaguemates.
SELL HIGH: Alvin Kamara, RB - Saints
Yes, Kamara has ripped off PPR RB9 and RB7 finishes over the last two weeks.
Also yes, Kamara’s per-touch efficiency has actually gotten worse compared to his already down 2022 numbers.
- Yards per carry: 2022: 4. 2023: 4
- Yards after contact per carry: 2022: 2.7. 2023: 2.5
- Missed tackles forced per carry: 2022: 0.15. 2023: 0
- Yards per reception: 2022: 8.6. 2023: 3.1
- Yards per route run: 2022: 1.66. 2023: 1.25
Ultimately, the porous efficiency hasn’t mattered, as Kamara found the end zone in Week 5 and racked up an absurd 13 receptions (for 33 yards, lol) in Week 4 with Derek Carr playing through the pain of an injured throwing shoulder.
Don’t get it twisted: Kamara currently possesses great utilization and figures to continue leading the backfield as long as he can stay healthy.
The question is whether or not Kamara will keep THIS sort of stranglehold on the overall usage:
- Once highly-paid early-down grinder Jamaal Williams (hamstring) returns to the equation.
- If rookie Kendre Miller continues to impress with his touches. Overall, Miller leads all Saints RBs in yards after contact per carry (3.1) and yards per route run (2.64).
Kamara is hardly a spring chicken at this point (28) and also isn’t exactly inside the world’s greatest offensive attack (22nd in PPG, 21st in EPA per play, 29th in yards per play).
He’s been traded straight up in Yahoo leagues for Puka Nacua and Ja’Marr Chase (lol) in addition to returning Mike Evans/Kenneth Walker and Jaylen Waddle/Rachaad White packages — I’m a fan of anything close to these returns.
SELL HIGH: DJ Moore, WR - Bears
Keyword: HIGH.
Moore is currently the WR4 in half-PPR points per game (19.3) behind only Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen and Stefon Diggs. He’d be vying for top-two treatment had the officials not rather inexplicably blown the play dead when they “thought” the stud receiver stepped out of bounds while working his way down the sideline for a potential chunk TD.
The man is absolutely crushing it.
PFF’s seventh-highest graded WR and Next-Gen Stats’ third-best WR in yards after the catch over expected (+3.4), there’s very little evidence to suggest that Moore is anything other than a great WR.
Here’s the catch: We’ve already seen just how low this floor can be in the Bears offense. This also wouldn’t be the first time Moore experienced a great high or two before crashing back down to reality.
- 2021: Moore works as the PPR WR4 during the first four weeks of the season before scoring just once over the course of the next 13 weeks, finishing as the WR25 on a per-game basis when everything was all said and done.
- 2022: Seems to be coming on strong with 7-69-1 and 6-152-1 performances in Weeks 7 and 8 after a slow start … only to account for under 30 scoreless yards in four of his next five games.
These are certainly entirely different situations, and it’s a good thing that Moore has proven capable of booming even in one underwhelming environment after another over the years; just realize we have a far larger sample size of Justin Fields and this passing game being rather bad than we do of them being the sort of world-beaters the league has seen over the past two weeks.
Even with his great passing numbers from Weeks 4 and 5 included, Fields still ranks just 21st in completion percentage over expected (+1%) and 26th in EPA per dropback (-0.04).
While I’d never wish an injury on anyone, Fields has missed multiple games in each of his first two seasons, meaning at least some chance Moore has to deal with the Tyson Bagent experience at some point this season.
Side note: Am I the only person who has never heard of backup Bears QB Tyson Bagent before? They are seriously trusting an undrafted rookie who played at renowned Division II “Shepherd University” as the direct backup to their hopeful franchise QB who just so happens to be one of the highest run-volume players at his position in the league?
Bold move, Cotton.
Anyways, Moore has BOOMED in a major way early in the season, but the BUST part of that equation could rear its ugly head sooner rather than later should the Bears start looking a bit more like the group we saw throughout 2022 and the early parts of 2023 as opposed to the last 120 minutes of football.
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